Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 18 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 January 2019, Man_City 3 0 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        22   57  +40      10.16    96.39    11.79    93.41     4.71    64.64    61.24    96.22    99.56    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   53  +42       1.80    61.14     2.82    91.04     4.51    71.56    37.43    92.81    99.06    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   48  +24       3.31    69.60     0.27    80.74     5.03    41.74     1.08     8.38    65.18    90.05    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   47  +23       3.96    72.95     3.17    76.91     5.20    35.41     0.25     2.32    27.70    70.17    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   41  +14       1.62    59.36    -1.19    69.86     5.37    24.92     0.00     0.08     3.52    16.42    96.93     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       0.09    49.80    -4.74    71.49     5.27    25.36     0.00     0.18     4.99    23.51    98.33     0.00     0.00  
Watford          22   32   +0       5.24    78.76     6.45    50.75     5.17    -6.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        22   31   +1       0.43    52.77     1.25    52.09     5.35    -1.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.55     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham         22   31   -2       3.32    69.45     3.43    50.47     5.27    -7.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.03R    0.00  
Everton          22   30   +2      -1.20    42.96     1.77    51.25     5.45     0.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.03R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   29   -5       4.18    74.66     4.35    49.17     5.41    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.09R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   27  -11       2.04    63.02    -0.06    45.63     5.27   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.75R    0.01  
Brighton         22   26   -6       1.65    61.09     3.43    44.73     5.14   -11.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.79R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   22   -8      -3.84    27.90    -0.66    41.09     5.20   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.34R    0.04  
Burnley          22   21  -20      -3.07    32.07    -9.42    36.25     4.95   -31.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.51R    0.47  
Southampton      22   19  -16      -4.53    23.77    -4.11    38.62     5.31   -20.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.20R    0.30  
Cardiff          22   19  -22      -0.65    47.08    -3.35    32.73     4.92   -36.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.17R    2.78  
Newcastle        22   18  -15      -6.24    15.69    -5.56    36.73     5.18   -20.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.48R    0.59  
Fulham           22   14  -29      -4.98    20.80    -5.98    26.61     4.84   -46.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.02R   24.41  
Huddersfield     22   11  -24      -6.84    10.84    -3.65    21.95     4.38   -42.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.58R   71.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Birmingham 1 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    27   54  +18      11.91    93.85    10.50    83.63     6.25    23.35    34.78    57.10    95.35    65.30P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   50  +18       6.81    80.63     8.82    79.83     6.13    23.69    15.66    33.73    87.59    46.51P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         27   50  +14       9.35    88.31     8.75    80.28     6.26    20.42    17.02    35.44    87.90    46.13P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       27   47  +20      -1.94    39.53     1.58    80.94     6.23    32.16    22.15    43.32    90.98    59.24P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   46  +11       1.77    59.02     0.62    77.12     6.05    18.26     7.08    18.19    75.87    35.52P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   43   +4       1.80    59.05    -2.19    73.73     6.16    10.97     2.12     6.99    54.41    18.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +5       1.74    59.34     1.73    67.09     6.18     4.94     0.25     1.00    16.74     4.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham      27   39   +9       4.63    73.25    12.72    63.32     6.09     6.35     0.05     0.22     6.72     1.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   39   +8       2.07    60.98     8.30    65.15     6.20     8.05     0.07     0.43    11.57     2.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +6      -0.92    45.45     1.80    66.04     6.14     7.23     0.13     0.60    14.20     3.60P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             27   39   -2       4.93    74.16     2.74    62.96     6.07    -5.26     0.02     0.15     5.07     0.95P    0.07R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   38   +6      -4.78    26.80    -2.70    68.54     6.32    12.74     0.46     1.85    25.59     8.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         27   37   +4      -4.76    27.41    -3.01    66.45     6.24     8.98     0.17     0.73    15.66     4.77P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   -6       2.52    63.26    -1.82    62.54     6.30    -6.98     0.02     0.13     4.93     0.96P    0.18R    0.00  
Stoke           27   35   -3      -4.10    30.13    -6.00    62.27     6.26    -1.04     0.02     0.10     4.72     1.31P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   32  -13      -1.26    44.12    -6.95    56.86     6.16   -15.01     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.09P    2.02R    0.07  
Brentford       27   31   +2      -8.26    14.26    -1.03    58.72     6.24     4.42     0.00     0.03     1.59     0.44P    0.88R    0.03  
Preston         27   30   -5      -6.78    19.11    -4.34    55.66     6.17    -5.75     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.09P    2.52R    0.11  
Wigan           27   29  -12      -5.17    25.24    -7.84    54.19     6.17   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P    4.67R    0.23  
Millwall        27   28  -10      -6.01    21.79    -5.29    50.65     6.03   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.39R    0.76  
Rotherham       27   25  -17      -1.79    41.63    -0.68    42.80     5.75   -30.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.07R   11.85  
Reading         27   23  -11      -7.77    14.75    -1.05    44.23     5.91   -18.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.07R    7.95  
Bolton          27   22  -22      -2.16    39.02    -2.91    38.89     5.48   -35.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.75R   33.12  
Ipswich         27   18  -24     -10.90     6.12   -11.75    37.29     5.77   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.05R   45.87  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           27   57  +21      13.45    95.97    11.39    87.04     6.22    26.87    20.06    41.70    97.60    53.68P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                27   53  +25       6.88    80.65    11.36    86.72     6.30    36.61    19.95    43.36    97.49    58.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           26   52  +22       4.46    71.57     3.83    89.82     6.38    37.90    38.66    63.03    99.00    74.55P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             28   50  +15       5.41    75.12     5.80    79.75     6.03    22.47     2.34     8.44    82.97    26.01P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             26   49  +21       2.46    62.13     4.78    85.96     6.39    35.16    17.56    37.99    96.79    57.52P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         27   47  +13       4.00    68.95     4.09    76.73     6.31    18.43     1.10     3.99    66.44    17.04P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            27   45  +14       3.74    68.39     7.80    73.34     6.27    17.24     0.33     1.47    43.92     9.99P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             28   39   -2       4.43    71.50     2.90    60.79     5.89    -6.04     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.17P    2.56R    0.08  
Blackpool            26   38   +2       2.16    62.01     1.34    65.11     6.24     1.81     0.00     0.02     6.59     1.27P    0.59R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       27   35   +5      -3.41    33.32     3.11    62.25     6.23     6.77     0.00     0.01     3.15     0.60P    1.66R    0.07  
Burton_Albion        27   35   +0      -3.23    34.55    -1.77    59.51     6.20    -2.39     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.23P    4.54R    0.22  
Southend             27   35   +0      -2.51    37.72    -0.62    60.09     6.21    -1.49     0.00     0.00     1.53     0.25P    3.79R    0.19  
Wycombe              27   35   -3       2.53    63.42     4.44    57.55     6.19    -8.73     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.08P    9.36R    0.68  
Accrington_Stanley   26   35   -8       4.91    74.52     0.04    57.41     6.24   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.08P   10.59R    0.80  
Scunthorpe           28   33  -17      -3.44    33.91   -13.45    56.40     6.00   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   13.45R    1.23  
Walsall              27   32  -14       0.99    55.94    -4.67    54.21     6.04   -19.86     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   22.48R    2.67  
Gillingham           27   31   -6      -2.77    36.87    -0.58    55.63     6.16    -8.58     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   15.19R    1.58  
Shrewsbury           27   30   -6      -6.23    20.70    -5.07    56.16     6.15    -5.66     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   12.86R    1.08  
Rochdale             28   30  -24      -0.46    48.68   -10.81    49.87     5.80   -32.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.45R   10.64  
Bristol_Rovers       27   28   -4      -6.77    18.73    -0.71    51.65     6.11    -7.38     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   33.29R    5.37  
Oxford_Utd           27   27  -10      -7.14    17.86    -5.13    50.74     6.17   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   40.42R    7.73  
Bradford             27   27  -12      -6.26    20.79    -6.13    51.18     6.18   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   38.08R    7.01  
Plymouth             27   27  -15      -4.61    27.83    -6.18    48.63     6.07   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   56.12R   13.99  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   23  -17      -6.00    20.67    -5.76    43.31     5.84   -25.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.56R   46.65  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Mansfield 1 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     26   52  +21       8.55    87.26     9.33    84.86     6.37    29.07    36.14    75.67    97.85    81.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             28   49  +21       0.14    50.08     4.84    81.00     6.05    32.20    15.57    56.89    94.16    68.41P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        27   48  +18       3.00    65.19     6.51    79.71     6.05    26.26    10.75    45.18    91.49    58.86P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   47  +21      -0.32    47.52     3.52    83.92     6.33    35.09    31.76    73.59    97.24    81.71P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   46  +12       2.01    60.21     3.76    72.97     5.94    15.37     1.22    10.44    59.81    22.17P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         28   45  +10       1.69    58.77     2.79    72.76     6.03    14.69     1.25    10.11    58.16    21.55P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   44  +14       7.73    85.00    13.33    71.92     6.36    14.83     1.24     9.50    52.61    17.10P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           27   44  +10       0.89    54.73     0.99    73.10     6.21    14.50     1.51    11.62    60.10    23.74P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         27   42   +8       3.97    69.25     6.68    67.40     6.25     7.01     0.19     2.27    24.87     6.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        28   41   -2       3.37    67.08    -0.80    64.54     5.90    -3.68     0.02     0.52    11.08     2.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           27   39   +7      -4.50    28.46    -2.74    69.00     6.25    12.76     0.34     3.73    35.04    12.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          28   37   -6      -1.46    43.06    -6.13    62.40     5.88    -5.15     0.00     0.16     5.84     1.33P    0.07R    0.00  
Newport_County   26   36   -8       3.94    70.82    -2.01    59.94     6.30   -13.55     0.01     0.11     3.41     0.59P    0.42R    0.07  
Crewe            28   35   -6      -0.04    50.36    -0.79    57.90     5.90    -8.65     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.21P    0.64R    0.11  
Grimsby          27   34   -5       1.89    60.81     1.96    56.01     5.96   -10.70     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.11P    1.42R    0.25  
Northampton      27   33   +0      -6.13    21.80    -3.08    61.26     6.28     3.20     0.00     0.16     5.59     1.45P    0.20R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     28   33   -7      -1.42    43.46    -0.87    54.40     5.75   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.06P    2.54R    0.56  
Cheltenham       27   29   -9      -3.86    31.38    -2.23    52.95     6.11   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    5.25R    1.39  
Port_Vale        27   29  -10      -3.77    31.24    -4.11    52.46     5.94   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    5.73R    1.50  
Cambridge_Utd    28   29  -22      -2.48    37.91   -11.73    49.67     5.71   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.88R    4.01  
Morecambe        28   28  -16      -2.25    39.14    -3.86    48.00     5.69   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.11R    6.61  
Yeovil           26   27   -4      -4.44    27.77     2.09    52.23     6.21    -7.28     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    6.48R    1.79  
Macclesfield     28   24  -19      -2.19    39.52    -0.62    40.38     5.42   -31.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.30R   44.66  
Notts_County     28   21  -28     -10.74     7.29   -16.84    41.24     5.82   -35.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.95R   39.03  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Maidstone_United 2 4 Maidenhead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       6.02    77.55    12.58    87.42     5.61    39.71    53.22    97.05    67.14P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.13    83.37    13.99    83.47     6.01    32.85    22.26    87.72    38.74P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   54  +19      11.17    91.78    14.28    79.36     5.74    22.24     7.13    68.71    19.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   53  +16       7.98    84.60     8.24    79.41     5.53    20.75     6.11    68.71    21.70P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       0.98    54.71     8.10    79.41     5.68    31.18     7.81    71.44    27.39P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.69    83.49     2.66    75.57     5.88    10.09     1.96    39.94     9.69P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.07    68.45    10.34    72.77     5.99    18.82     0.87    26.36     6.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          29   46   +8       2.45    62.35     2.14    70.44     5.73     9.81     0.23    13.78     3.13P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.13    49.49     5.27    69.82     5.79    15.77     0.19    12.73     3.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.34    78.96    -0.65    65.11     5.64    -6.88     0.01     2.13     0.32P    0.14R    0.00  
Bromley            29   39   -1      -1.77    41.70    -2.51    62.85     5.84    -0.36     0.01     1.07     0.24P    0.47R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.19    56.58     0.46    60.56     5.61    -4.16     0.00     0.28     0.05P    1.17R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.83    36.32    -3.16    61.54     5.69    -0.33     0.00     0.59     0.13P    0.87R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.76    41.83    -4.39    56.73     5.61   -10.52     0.00     0.04     0.01P    5.18R    0.02  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.91    30.10    -9.06    67.86     6.68     3.96     0.20     9.18     2.80P    0.14R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.75    23.94    -5.67    59.70     5.79    -1.94     0.00     0.25     0.04P    2.18R    0.00  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.04    50.46     1.82    53.78     5.65    -9.91     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.08R    0.07  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.26    21.40   -12.59    54.07     5.76   -16.32     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.35R    0.10  
Maidenhead         29   31  -20      -1.19    45.03    -8.02    48.49     5.45   -29.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.73R    0.93  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -3.00    36.22     2.20    46.48     5.68   -20.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.14R    1.92  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.72    18.99   -14.54    49.05     5.81   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.23R    1.11  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.32     4.44   -11.68    52.08     6.04    -7.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.26R    0.32  
Maidstone_United   29   25  -20      -5.10    25.57    -5.68    42.28     5.36   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.43R    9.18  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.68    22.51    -4.13    32.54     5.14   -43.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.62R   86.35