Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 17 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 January 2019, Man_City 3 0 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        22   57  +40      10.21    96.29    11.95    93.41     4.70    64.64    61.12    96.45    99.63    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   53  +42       1.83    61.59     2.85    91.04     4.50    71.54    37.58    92.94    99.08    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   48  +24       3.43    70.09     0.42    80.66     5.01    41.59     1.04     8.00    64.69    90.17    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   47  +23       3.92    72.54     3.11    76.89     5.22    35.44     0.24     2.37    28.18    70.30    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   41  +14       1.47    58.25    -1.48    69.92     5.33    25.03     0.01     0.09     3.63    16.64    97.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       0.19    50.43    -4.55    71.43     5.28    25.28     0.01     0.15     4.78    23.02    98.32     0.00     0.00  
Watford          22   32   +0       5.32    78.92     6.61    50.67     5.19    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        22   31   +1       0.39    52.57     1.19    52.09     5.35    -1.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.55     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         22   31   -2       3.43    70.18     3.62    50.39     5.27    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.04R    0.00  
Everton          22   30   +2      -1.25    42.89     1.60    51.31     5.41     0.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.03R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   29   -5       4.18    74.66     4.35    49.19     5.45    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.11R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   27  -11       1.96    62.57    -0.19    45.67     5.28   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.74R    0.00  
Brighton         22   26   -6       1.67    61.26     3.51    44.68     5.17   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.92R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   22   -8      -3.92    27.74    -0.74    41.15     5.19   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.26R    0.04  
Burnley          22   21  -20      -3.05    32.33    -9.34    36.26     4.99   -31.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.01R    0.46  
Southampton      22   19  -16      -4.51    24.05    -4.08    38.67     5.32   -20.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.20R    0.25  
Cardiff          22   19  -22      -0.82    46.31    -3.65    32.78     4.95   -36.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.65R    2.85  
Newcastle        22   18  -15      -6.20    16.05    -5.50    36.68     5.18   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.66R    0.58  
Fulham           22   14  -29      -5.08    20.16    -6.16    26.69     4.88   -46.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.83R   23.67  
Huddersfield     22   11  -24      -6.71    11.39    -3.52    21.90     4.41   -42.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.52R   72.15  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Birmingham 1 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    27   54  +18      11.75    93.66    10.27    83.76     6.24    23.54    35.07    57.28    95.66    65.51P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   50  +18       6.63    80.05     8.58    79.90     6.14    23.83    15.84    33.67    87.76    46.34P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         27   50  +14       9.19    87.85     8.50    80.42     6.22    20.60    17.02    35.78    88.42    46.72P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       27   47  +20      -1.77    40.63     1.78    80.89     6.26    32.11    21.51    42.56    90.74    58.67P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   46  +11       1.67    58.77     0.47    77.22     6.09    18.38     7.26    18.79    76.45    36.09P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   43   +4       1.73    58.83    -2.25    73.82     6.16    11.11     2.10     6.93    55.21    18.81P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +5       1.88    59.83     1.94    66.94     6.16     4.77     0.22     0.86    16.28     4.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      27   39   +9       4.65    73.22    12.80    63.27     6.10     6.30     0.03     0.19     6.75     1.28P    0.08R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   39   +8       2.21    61.64     8.46    65.13     6.18     7.99     0.08     0.40    11.26     2.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +6      -0.69    46.87     2.21    65.89     6.18     6.97     0.15     0.58    13.34     3.35P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             27   39   -2       4.98    74.40     2.80    62.96     5.97    -5.31     0.02     0.13     4.67     0.87P    0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   38   +6      -4.83    26.76    -2.76    68.52     6.30    12.73     0.49     1.79    25.37     8.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         27   37   +4      -4.82    27.08    -3.11    66.42     6.27     8.96     0.18     0.79    15.50     4.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   -6       2.40    62.67    -2.05    62.56     6.27    -6.90     0.02     0.09     4.86     0.98P    0.19R    0.00  
Stoke           27   35   -3      -4.24    29.86    -6.17    62.36     6.28    -0.93     0.01     0.15     4.84     1.33P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   32  -13      -1.18    44.61    -6.85    56.77     6.21   -15.10     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.09P    2.11R    0.06  
Brentford       27   31   +2      -8.18    14.38    -0.91    58.71     6.26     4.41     0.00     0.02     1.70     0.43P    0.85R    0.03  
Preston         27   30   -5      -6.78    19.29    -4.33    55.64     6.20    -5.79     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.09P    2.51R    0.09  
Wigan           27   29  -12      -5.23    25.25    -7.91    54.27     6.23   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    4.60R    0.21  
Millwall        27   28  -10      -5.91    21.86    -5.16    50.63     5.97   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    11.25R    0.71  
Rotherham       27   25  -17      -1.66    42.18    -0.54    42.70     5.73   -30.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.16R   11.92  
Reading         27   23  -11      -7.73    15.03    -1.02    44.18     5.94   -18.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.41R    8.23  
Bolton          27   22  -22      -2.39    37.64    -3.26    39.01     5.49   -35.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.44R   32.24  
Ipswich         27   18  -24     -10.74     6.39   -11.49    37.20     5.79   -34.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.10R   46.50  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           27   57  +21      13.09    95.64    10.89    87.25     6.21    27.20    21.05    43.28    97.85    55.54P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                27   53  +25       6.95    80.90    11.43    86.74     6.30    36.61    20.09    43.07    97.50    57.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           26   52  +22       4.53    71.82     3.97    89.72     6.36    37.73    37.85    62.26    99.01    74.17P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             28   50  +15       5.31    74.83     5.70    79.74     6.04    22.43     2.21     7.98    82.77    25.39P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             26   49  +21       2.35    61.70     4.60    86.00     6.38    35.22    17.43    38.09    96.78    57.80P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         27   47  +13       4.20    70.09     4.38    76.64     6.29    18.31     1.07     3.92    66.20    16.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            27   45  +14       3.82    68.63     7.85    73.30     6.26    17.19     0.29     1.34    43.60     9.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry             28   39   -2       4.36    71.29     2.85    60.78     5.91    -6.06     0.00     0.00     1.37     0.20P    2.65R    0.08  
Blackpool            26   38   +2       1.99    60.79     1.19    65.29     6.27     2.02     0.00     0.03     7.06     1.31P    0.50R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       27   35   +5      -3.35    33.66     3.17    62.30     6.28     6.82     0.00     0.01     3.39     0.61P    1.69R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        27   35   +0      -3.06    35.31    -1.52    59.36     6.18    -2.62     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.22P    4.57R    0.25  
Southend             27   35   +0      -2.55    37.52    -0.69    60.14     6.16    -1.39     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.26P    3.62R    0.15  
Wycombe              27   35   -3       2.71    64.42     4.68    57.35     6.13    -9.02     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.08P    9.54R    0.76  
Accrington_Stanley   26   35   -8       4.90    74.77     0.02    57.42     6.25   -15.55     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.05P   10.36R    0.77  
Scunthorpe           28   33  -17      -3.52    33.35   -13.59    56.41     6.03   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P   13.42R    1.23  
Walsall              27   32  -14       0.91    55.84    -4.83    54.28     6.01   -19.73     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   22.09R    2.64  
Gillingham           27   31   -6      -2.80    36.44    -0.61    55.67     6.19    -8.49     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   15.16R    1.50  
Shrewsbury           27   30   -6      -6.18    20.84    -4.98    56.09     6.12    -5.73     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   12.87R    1.23  
Rochdale             28   30  -24      -0.45    48.78   -10.73    49.89     5.83   -32.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.09R   10.84  
Bristol_Rovers       27   28   -4      -6.69    19.22    -0.59    51.65     6.08    -7.36     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.37R    5.43  
Oxford_Utd           27   27  -10      -7.11    18.10    -5.09    50.70     6.18   -13.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   40.70R    7.76  
Bradford             27   27  -12      -6.22    20.95    -5.98    51.08     6.14   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   38.78R    7.12  
Plymouth             27   27  -15      -4.63    27.65    -6.21    48.61     6.03   -22.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   56.47R   14.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   23  -17      -6.08    20.35    -5.93    43.38     5.82   -25.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.11R   46.16  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Mansfield 1 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     26   52  +21       8.49    87.03     9.28    84.92     6.34    29.16    36.18    76.09    97.95    81.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             28   49  +21       0.12    50.42     4.86    80.99     6.08    32.24    15.78    56.74    94.08    68.00P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        27   48  +18       3.16    65.93     6.71    79.61     6.07    26.15    10.45    44.86    91.11    58.18P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   47  +21      -0.37    47.43     3.43    83.90     6.33    35.07    31.84    73.33    97.25    81.56P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   46  +12       1.99    60.15     3.70    73.06     5.99    15.49     1.28    11.03    60.52    22.84P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         28   45  +10       1.67    58.23     2.78    72.77     6.06    14.64     1.24    10.25    58.62    21.73P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   44  +14       7.92    85.39    13.60    71.80     6.38    14.60     1.20     9.33    51.61    16.61P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           27   44  +10       1.01    55.50     1.14    73.04     6.22    14.38     1.46    11.52    59.61    23.77P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         27   42   +8       3.86    68.97     6.56    67.47     6.28     7.11     0.26     2.29    25.68     6.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        28   41   -2       3.18    66.22    -1.04    64.70     5.85    -3.50     0.03     0.51    11.46     2.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           27   39   +7      -4.51    28.68    -2.67    68.90     6.21    12.60     0.28     3.56    34.47    12.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          28   37   -6      -1.45    43.15    -6.14    62.39     5.92    -5.19     0.01     0.19     6.01     1.45P    0.10R    0.01  
Newport_County   26   36   -8       3.92    70.46    -2.00    59.97     6.28   -13.49     0.00     0.11     3.35     0.64P    0.43R    0.09  
Crewe            28   35   -6       0.11    51.38    -0.58    57.84     5.88    -8.70     0.00     0.02     1.25     0.22P    0.70R    0.12  
Grimsby          27   34   -5       1.78    60.08     1.80    56.15     5.96   -10.49     0.00     0.01     0.75     0.13P    1.37R    0.28  
Northampton      27   33   +0      -5.97    22.77    -2.84    61.14     6.27     2.98     0.01     0.14     5.46     1.44P    0.22R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     28   33   -7      -1.53    42.98    -1.09    54.54     5.79   -12.04     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P    2.53R    0.51  
Cheltenham       27   29   -9      -3.79    31.34    -2.17    52.93     6.08   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P    5.13R    1.32  
Port_Vale        27   29  -10      -3.68    31.75    -3.95    52.41     5.95   -13.86     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    5.72R    1.38  
Cambridge_Utd    28   29  -22      -2.54    37.98   -11.82    49.66     5.76   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   14.03R    4.14  
Morecambe        28   28  -16      -2.23    39.11    -3.86    47.98     5.69   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.11R    6.55  
Yeovil           26   27   -4      -4.62    27.13     1.79    52.30     6.22    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    6.47R    1.77  
Macclesfield     28   24  -19      -2.20    39.80    -0.70    40.45     5.43   -31.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.61R   43.92  
Notts_County     28   21  -28     -10.74     7.49   -16.77    41.16     5.81   -35.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.56R   39.87  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Maidstone_United 2 4 Maidenhead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       5.95    77.30    12.45    87.46     5.57    39.74    53.23    97.15    67.17P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.19    83.34    14.05    83.47     6.03    32.84    22.62    87.56    38.83P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   54  +19      11.23    91.88    14.36    79.34     5.73    22.20     6.69    68.59    18.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   53  +16       7.93    84.46     8.15    79.42     5.56    20.78     6.02    68.78    21.84P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       0.96    54.43     8.06    79.48     5.67    31.28     7.94    72.24    27.35P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.67    83.37     2.60    75.58     5.88    10.06     2.00    39.66     9.87P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.15    68.72    10.49    72.72     5.96    18.72     0.93    25.83     6.22P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          29   46   +8       2.44    62.17     2.12    70.47     5.77     9.87     0.21    13.99     3.24P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.23    48.83     5.18    69.84     5.83    15.79     0.22    13.14     3.33P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.33    78.74    -0.61    65.08     5.62    -6.93     0.01     1.97     0.33P    0.09R    0.00  
Bromley            29   39   -1      -1.71    41.94    -2.42    62.86     5.82    -0.37     0.00     1.01     0.22P    0.47R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.26    56.87     0.58    60.52     5.63    -4.23     0.00     0.30     0.05P    1.24R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.88    35.92    -3.19    61.46     5.69    -0.41     0.00     0.60     0.15P    0.86R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.77    41.60    -4.43    56.73     5.60   -10.50     0.00     0.04     0.02P    5.08R    0.01  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.85    30.38    -8.95    67.79     6.65     3.89     0.14     8.87     2.66P    0.18R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.45    24.97    -5.29    59.62     5.84    -2.06     0.00     0.23     0.06P    2.29R    0.00  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.10    50.36     1.75    53.77     5.61    -9.94     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.10R    0.06  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.41    21.06   -12.79    54.16     5.75   -16.22     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.19R    0.10  
Maidenhead         29   31  -20      -1.06    45.69    -7.78    48.44     5.48   -29.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.05R    0.98  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -3.28    35.07     1.70    46.67     5.65   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.05R    1.81  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.73    18.74   -14.56    49.06     5.84   -24.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.31R    1.25  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.19     4.59   -11.49    52.05     6.01    -7.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.48R    0.34  
Maidstone_United   29   25  -20      -5.01    26.06    -5.59    42.17     5.35   -29.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.07R    9.50  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.80    21.89    -4.36    32.65     5.18   -43.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.54R   85.95