Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 16 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 January 2019, Man_City 3 0 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        22   57  +40      10.23    96.31    11.90    93.34     4.72    64.56    60.93    96.09    99.54    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   53  +42       1.86    61.45     2.86    91.03     4.54    71.48    37.72    92.43    98.86    99.86   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   48  +24       3.31    69.49     0.29    80.74     5.02    41.68     1.09     8.70    65.30    90.12    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   47  +23       3.92    72.36     3.10    76.89     5.21    35.39     0.25     2.43    27.67    70.06    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   41  +14       1.55    58.81    -1.30    69.87     5.38    24.96     0.00     0.12     3.68    16.62    97.03     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       0.13    50.21    -4.66    71.52     5.25    25.41     0.00     0.23     4.95    23.37    98.49     0.00     0.00  
Watford          22   32   +0       5.30    79.29     6.58    50.63     5.17    -7.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        22   31   +1       0.27    52.08     1.01    52.13     5.29    -1.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.45     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         22   31   -2       3.34    69.72     3.48    50.49     5.27    -7.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.04R    0.00  
Everton          22   30   +2      -1.18    43.18     1.72    51.24     5.44     0.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.03R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   29   -5       4.19    74.69     4.31    49.14     5.41    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   27  -11       2.03    62.93    -0.08    45.63     5.26   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.80R    0.01  
Brighton         22   26   -6       1.58    60.81     3.34    44.76     5.17   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.81R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   22   -8      -3.80    28.48    -0.67    41.05     5.22   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.58R    0.06  
Burnley          22   21  -20      -3.12    31.56    -9.53    36.31     4.97   -31.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.33R    0.42  
Southampton      22   19  -16      -4.37    24.66    -3.85    38.55     5.35   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.57R    0.26  
Cardiff          22   19  -22      -0.70    46.80    -3.32    32.75     4.91   -36.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.92R    2.89  
Newcastle        22   18  -15      -6.19    15.96    -5.49    36.69     5.20   -20.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.75R    0.61  
Fulham           22   14  -29      -5.11    20.25    -6.21    26.74     4.90   -46.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.47R   23.91  
Huddersfield     22   11  -24      -6.78    11.11    -3.49    21.94     4.40   -42.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.60R   71.84  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Birmingham 1 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    27   54  +18      11.79    93.67    10.32    83.74     6.25    23.50    35.52    57.18    95.51    65.39P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   50  +18       6.61    80.17     8.55    79.89     6.13    23.78    15.86    33.76    87.61    46.27P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         27   50  +14       9.31    88.28     8.67    80.35     6.24    20.48    16.83    35.75    88.12    46.59P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       27   47  +20      -1.75    40.81     1.84    80.83     6.23    31.97    21.22    42.28    90.58    58.26P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   46  +11       1.65    58.61     0.49    77.20     6.08    18.38     7.44    19.02    76.29    36.29P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   43   +4       1.55    57.81    -2.49    73.88     6.13    11.16     2.05     7.06    55.65    19.25P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +5       1.88    59.85     1.95    66.94     6.18     4.81     0.22     0.91    16.25     4.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      27   39   +9       4.90    74.53    13.14    63.18     6.08     6.11     0.04     0.15     6.39     1.18P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   39   +8       2.02    61.03     8.24    65.15     6.15     8.05     0.07     0.42    11.09     2.39P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +6      -0.85    46.02     1.89    65.96     6.19     7.08     0.11     0.60    13.75     3.56P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             27   39   -2       4.96    74.37     2.76    62.92     6.09    -5.34     0.03     0.12     5.03     0.98P    0.09R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   38   +6      -4.70    27.47    -2.57    68.51     6.31    12.68     0.42     1.79    25.55     8.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         27   37   +4      -4.79    27.16    -3.05    66.42     6.25     8.95     0.14     0.70    15.55     4.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   -6       2.41    62.47    -1.96    62.61     6.30    -6.87     0.02     0.12     4.99     1.01P    0.18R    0.00  
Stoke           27   35   -3      -4.29    29.59    -6.23    62.42     6.26    -0.85     0.03     0.12     4.91     1.35P    0.17R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   32  -13      -1.16    44.49    -6.78    56.76     6.20   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.10P    2.17R    0.09  
Brentford       27   31   +2      -8.25    14.50    -1.03    58.77     6.24     4.52     0.00     0.02     1.61     0.42P    0.78R    0.03  
Preston         27   30   -5      -6.72    19.14    -4.23    55.60     6.19    -5.84     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.08P    2.58R    0.09  
Wigan           27   29  -12      -5.16    25.67    -7.84    54.21     6.19   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P    4.61R    0.30  
Millwall        27   28  -10      -6.02    21.59    -5.28    50.63     6.00   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   11.55R    0.77  
Rotherham       27   25  -17      -1.77    41.64    -0.80    42.85     5.74   -30.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.92R   11.49  
Reading         27   23  -11      -7.60    15.41    -0.80    44.06     5.93   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.46R    8.45  
Bolton          27   22  -22      -2.39    37.71    -3.31    39.08     5.48   -35.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.02R   32.00  
Ipswich         27   18  -24     -10.72     6.64   -11.47    37.22     5.77   -34.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.32R   46.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           27   57  +21      13.20    95.87    11.09    87.17     6.18    27.14    20.29    42.18    97.89    54.57P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                27   53  +25       6.95    81.11    11.41    86.76     6.25    36.62    19.71    43.21    97.61    58.27P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           26   52  +22       4.39    71.33     3.72    89.83     6.35    37.91    38.82    63.01    99.03    74.60P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             28   50  +15       5.42    75.44     5.88    79.72     6.06    22.42     2.33     8.13    82.68    25.31P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             26   49  +21       2.34    61.36     4.57    86.03     6.37    35.27    17.46    38.17    96.97    57.76P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         27   47  +13       4.15    70.05     4.32    76.63     6.34    18.33     1.07     3.83    65.97    16.78P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            27   45  +14       3.81    68.61     7.87    73.28     6.26    17.19     0.30     1.42    43.55     9.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             28   39   -2       4.43    71.84     2.92    60.81     5.88    -6.05     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.25P    2.58R    0.08  
Blackpool            26   38   +2       1.87    60.31     1.03    65.33     6.28     2.06     0.00     0.04     7.29     1.40P    0.53R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       27   35   +5      -3.39    33.42     3.14    62.23     6.24     6.78     0.00     0.01     3.09     0.63P    1.71R    0.07  
Burton_Albion        27   35   +0      -3.00    35.73    -1.40    59.32     6.22    -2.64     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.23P    4.83R    0.24  
Southend             27   35   +0      -2.59    37.30    -0.69    60.13     6.19    -1.41     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.23P    3.72R    0.19  
Wycombe              27   35   -3       2.49    63.24     4.36    57.45     6.14    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.07P    9.47R    0.68  
Accrington_Stanley   26   35   -8       4.83    74.17    -0.11    57.44     6.23   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.08P   10.23R    0.77  
Scunthorpe           28   33  -17      -3.55    33.26   -13.56    56.41     6.03   -19.35     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   13.44R    1.21  
Walsall              27   32  -14       1.03    56.49    -4.68    54.26     6.04   -19.76     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   22.23R    2.86  
Gillingham           27   31   -6      -2.67    37.39    -0.47    55.62     6.20    -8.59     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   15.35R    1.60  
Shrewsbury           27   30   -6      -6.20    21.12    -5.03    56.15     6.21    -5.68     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P   13.07R    1.24  
Rochdale             28   30  -24      -0.49    48.59   -10.80    49.87     5.79   -32.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    50.17R   10.39  
Bristol_Rovers       27   28   -4      -6.74    18.93    -0.71    51.64     6.11    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   33.15R    5.34  
Oxford_Utd           27   27  -10      -6.92    18.69    -4.76    50.54     6.17   -14.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   41.68R    8.06  
Bradford             27   27  -12      -6.31    20.56    -6.14    51.19     6.14   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   37.66R    6.84  
Plymouth             27   27  -15      -4.62    27.84    -6.22    48.62     6.08   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   55.82R   13.93  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   23  -17      -5.94    21.04    -5.75    43.30     5.84   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.37R   46.49  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Mansfield 1 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     26   52  +21       8.40    86.79     9.14    84.92     6.38    29.21    36.24    75.93    97.93    81.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             28   49  +21      -0.02    49.48     4.62    81.01     6.06    32.22    15.73    56.98    94.15    68.41P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        27   48  +18       3.08    65.39     6.60    79.63     6.06    26.18    10.81    44.63    91.18    58.25P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   47  +21      -0.32    47.85     3.47    83.85     6.36    35.01    31.37    73.13    97.17    81.32P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   46  +12       1.92    59.80     3.59    73.05     5.95    15.48     1.34    10.87    60.26    22.80P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         28   45  +10       1.61    57.92     2.69    72.84     6.09    14.73     1.22    10.35    58.90    21.85P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   44  +14       7.84    85.12    13.44    71.86     6.39    14.74     1.20     9.38    52.32    16.74P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           27   44  +10       0.91    54.64     1.02    73.12     6.25    14.48     1.64    11.92    59.85    24.16P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         27   42   +8       4.01    69.62     6.73    67.41     6.25     7.01     0.16     2.33    24.96     6.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        28   41   -2       3.33    66.93    -0.89    64.60     5.86    -3.62     0.02     0.45    11.25     2.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           27   39   +7      -4.26    29.61    -2.32    68.85     6.25    12.49     0.28     3.53    34.11    11.96P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          28   37   -6      -1.44    43.32    -6.12    62.40     5.98    -5.13     0.00     0.18     6.05     1.42P    0.07R    0.01  
Newport_County   26   36   -8       3.76    69.96    -2.19    60.08     6.31   -13.28     0.00     0.14     3.54     0.65P    0.39R    0.07  
Crewe            28   35   -6       0.13    51.42    -0.57    57.84     5.87    -8.75     0.00     0.02     1.18     0.20P    0.64R    0.11  
Grimsby          27   34   -5       1.84    60.67     1.87    56.09     5.94   -10.57     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.13P    1.39R    0.20  
Northampton      27   33   +0      -6.13    21.84    -3.13    61.29     6.29     3.21     0.00     0.16     5.62     1.52P    0.22R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     28   33   -7      -1.47    43.28    -0.93    54.52     5.82   -12.08     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    2.69R    0.55  
Cheltenham       27   29   -9      -3.70    31.88    -2.01    52.83     6.08   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    5.43R    1.46  
Port_Vale        27   29  -10      -3.80    31.06    -4.13    52.48     5.95   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    5.65R    1.35  
Cambridge_Utd    28   29  -22      -2.55    37.74   -11.81    49.66     5.71   -28.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.93R    4.08  
Morecambe        28   28  -16      -2.27    39.20    -3.87    48.01     5.70   -22.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.80R    6.51  
Yeovil           26   27   -4      -4.50    27.57     1.98    52.27     6.19    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    6.32R    1.79  
Macclesfield     28   24  -19      -2.13    40.01    -0.49    40.36     5.41   -31.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.15R   44.42  
Notts_County     28   21  -28     -10.69     7.73   -16.68    41.17     5.82   -35.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.31R   39.40  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Maidstone_United 2 4 Maidenhead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       6.10    77.83    12.69    87.43     5.62    39.69    52.58    97.15    66.63P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.00    83.01    13.75    83.59     5.98    33.02    22.95    88.07    39.40P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   54  +19      11.36    92.32    14.57    79.28     5.76    22.12     6.84    67.64    18.77P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   53  +16       7.89    84.26     8.11    79.45     5.58    20.79     6.11    68.73    21.66P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       0.95    54.74     8.05    79.41     5.71    31.23     7.95    71.49    27.21P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.68    83.29     2.57    75.60     5.91    10.10     2.03    40.15     9.92P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.17    68.86    10.48    72.71     5.98    18.69     0.90    25.94     6.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          29   46   +8       2.38    61.62     2.06    70.49     5.76     9.90     0.23    14.00     3.29P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.31    48.60     5.02    69.94     5.80    15.92     0.20    13.27     3.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.39    78.81    -0.55    65.03     5.63    -6.95     0.02     1.98     0.34P    0.14R    0.00  
Bromley            29   39   -1      -1.64    42.21    -2.35    62.76     5.80    -0.49     0.01     0.99     0.24P    0.53R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.29    57.02     0.60    60.52     5.64    -4.22     0.00     0.32     0.05P    1.20R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.91    35.76    -3.23    61.60     5.72    -0.23     0.00     0.61     0.15P    0.78R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.71    42.05    -4.33    56.66     5.58   -10.56     0.00     0.04     0.00P    5.31R    0.02  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.97    29.67    -9.17    67.95     6.65     4.10     0.18     9.34     2.70P    0.15R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.77    23.98    -5.69    59.72     5.83    -1.92     0.00     0.25     0.05P    2.10R    0.01  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.19    49.91     1.65    53.80     5.64    -9.91     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.02R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.38    21.16   -12.83    54.16     5.76   -16.19     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.11R    0.12  
Maidenhead         29   31  -20      -1.02    45.99    -7.75    48.35     5.41   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.42R    0.91  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -3.04    36.24     2.08    46.47     5.66   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.23R    1.88  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.69    19.14   -14.46    49.03     5.83   -24.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.08R    1.14  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.35     4.33   -11.76    52.18     5.98    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.00P   21.42R    0.34  
Maidstone_United   29   25  -20      -5.02    26.00    -5.50    42.20     5.34   -29.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.96R    9.08  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.65    22.41    -3.99    32.52     5.17   -43.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.55R   86.45