Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 15 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 January 2019, Man_City 3 0 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        22   57  +40      10.19    96.29    11.86    93.37     4.75    64.59    60.91    96.02    99.49    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   53  +42       1.79    61.07     2.72    91.06     4.49    71.56    37.77    92.90    98.96    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   48  +24       3.35    69.45     0.24    80.76     4.99    41.77     1.10     8.38    65.45    90.02    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   47  +23       3.91    72.48     3.07    76.92     5.23    35.46     0.20     2.41    27.58    70.10    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   41  +14       1.67    59.48    -1.12    69.83     5.36    24.82     0.00     0.09     3.49    16.32    97.06     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       0.06    49.73    -4.83    71.55     5.27    25.43     0.01     0.20     5.03    23.69    98.42     0.00     0.00  
Watford          22   32   +0       5.35    79.26     6.67    50.63     5.18    -7.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        22   31   +1       0.49    53.31     1.36    52.02     5.29    -1.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.44     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         22   31   -2       3.29    69.56     3.37    50.52     5.26    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          22   30   +2      -1.18    43.08     1.76    51.17     5.41     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.22     0.04R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   29   -5       4.08    74.07     4.23    49.27     5.47    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.08R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   27  -11       2.05    63.28    -0.01    45.62     5.29   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.79R    0.00  
Brighton         22   26   -6       1.71    61.59     3.54    44.65     5.14   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.91R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   22   22   -8      -3.80    28.09    -0.62    41.05     5.18   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.50R    0.07  
Burnley          22   21  -20      -3.13    31.68    -9.50    36.32     4.97   -31.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.32R    0.44  
Southampton      22   19  -16      -4.54    23.95    -4.10    38.66     5.30   -20.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.41R    0.32  
Cardiff          22   19  -22      -0.75    46.67    -3.43    32.77     4.94   -36.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.93R    2.68  
Newcastle        22   18  -15      -6.25    15.77    -5.59    36.75     5.18   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.30R    0.54  
Fulham           22   14  -29      -4.95    21.26    -5.87    26.57     4.86   -46.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.15R   24.75  
Huddersfield     22   11  -24      -6.86    10.71    -3.76    21.97     4.41   -42.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.53R   71.20  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Birmingham 1 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    27   54  +18      11.77    93.77    10.30    83.76     6.20    23.57    35.49    57.70    95.78    65.87P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   50  +18       6.85    80.94     8.86    79.77     6.10    23.59    15.45    33.14    87.53    45.88P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         27   50  +14       9.30    88.10     8.65    80.25     6.24    20.36    16.73    35.17    87.72    46.23P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       27   47  +20      -1.94    39.74     1.61    80.83     6.24    31.99    21.51    42.44    90.63    58.50P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   46  +11       1.56    58.15     0.38    77.28     6.05    18.48     7.41    19.13    76.85    36.27P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   43   +4       1.87    59.46    -2.08    73.72     6.19    10.94     2.20     7.12    54.44    18.44P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +5       1.76    59.30     1.74    67.01     6.16     4.87     0.23     0.89    16.54     4.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      27   39   +9       4.77    73.90    12.94    63.28     6.05     6.28     0.05     0.22     6.35     1.22P    0.07R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   39   +8       2.00    60.77     8.18    65.23     6.18     8.19     0.10     0.47    11.55     2.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +6      -0.90    45.72     1.89    66.01     6.21     7.18     0.14     0.67    14.13     3.78P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             27   39   -2       4.83    73.74     2.60    63.02     6.05    -5.20     0.02     0.12     5.13     0.95P    0.09R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   38   +6      -4.70    27.63    -2.59    68.53     6.31    12.72     0.44     1.86    25.53     8.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         27   37   +4      -4.78    27.30    -3.07    66.42     6.29     8.97     0.20     0.83    15.63     5.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   -6       2.62    63.58    -1.63    62.48     6.26    -7.08     0.02     0.11     4.71     1.00P    0.20R    0.00  
Stoke           27   35   -3      -4.25    29.50    -6.20    62.36     6.26    -0.91     0.01     0.09     4.68     1.17P    0.19R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       27   32  -13      -1.28    43.99    -7.00    56.79     6.18   -15.07     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    2.14R    0.08  
Brentford       27   31   +2      -8.27    14.70    -1.09    58.75     6.29     4.49     0.00     0.02     1.64     0.39P    0.94R    0.02  
Preston         27   30   -5      -6.64    19.45    -4.13    55.60     6.22    -5.86     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.07P    2.52R    0.12  
Wigan           27   29  -12      -5.18    25.54    -7.89    54.24     6.21   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    4.79R    0.29  
Millwall        27   28  -10      -5.95    22.21    -5.20    50.65     5.99   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    11.30R    0.79  
Rotherham       27   25  -17      -1.71    42.05    -0.61    42.80     5.77   -30.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.50R   11.75  
Reading         27   23  -11      -7.67    15.24    -0.96    44.17     5.94   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.59R    8.06  
Bolton          27   22  -22      -2.37    37.55    -3.21    39.02     5.50   -35.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.95R   32.37  
Ipswich         27   18  -24     -10.72     6.57   -11.47    37.20     5.74   -34.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.63R   46.52  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           27   57  +21      13.17    95.66    11.00    87.25     6.22    27.18    20.59    42.55    97.80    54.73P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                27   53  +25       6.80    80.26    11.22    86.85     6.29    36.79    20.41    43.57    97.61    58.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           26   52  +22       4.56    71.99     3.97    89.80     6.36    37.82    37.91    62.56    99.10    74.46P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             28   50  +15       5.22    74.54     5.59    79.77     6.05    22.53     2.27     8.02    83.20    25.37P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             26   49  +21       2.35    61.58     4.61    86.00     6.39    35.28    17.46    37.97    96.87    57.67P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         27   47  +13       4.13    69.57     4.23    76.68     6.34    18.34     1.07     3.88    65.92    16.71P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            27   45  +14       3.58    67.51     7.53    73.41     6.23    17.39     0.28     1.41    44.00     9.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             28   39   -2       4.51    72.08     3.05    60.75     5.85    -6.13     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.18P    2.60R    0.05  
Blackpool            26   38   +2       2.03    61.07     1.21    65.21     6.27     1.90     0.01     0.02     6.81     1.21P    0.50R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       27   35   +5      -3.24    34.19     3.35    62.17     6.28     6.65     0.00     0.01     2.98     0.52P    1.80R    0.08  
Burton_Albion        27   35   +0      -3.20    34.58    -1.71    59.47     6.20    -2.39     0.00     0.00     1.20     0.24P    4.42R    0.20  
Southend             27   35   +0      -2.53    37.63    -0.61    60.10     6.17    -1.47     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.25P    3.79R    0.17  
Wycombe              27   35   -3       2.64    63.76     4.62    57.42     6.17    -8.91     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.07P    9.61R    0.68  
Accrington_Stanley   26   35   -8       4.91    75.20     0.04    57.39     6.20   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.05P   10.25R    0.81  
Scunthorpe           28   33  -17      -3.62    32.81   -13.73    56.51     6.00   -19.20     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   12.93R    1.22  
Walsall              27   32  -14       0.91    55.68    -4.79    54.25     6.06   -19.79     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   22.17R    2.61  
Gillingham           27   31   -6      -2.85    36.34    -0.67    55.73     6.17    -8.43     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   14.69R    1.49  
Shrewsbury           27   30   -6      -6.07    21.62    -4.81    56.01     6.14    -5.90     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   13.22R    1.24  
Rochdale             28   30  -24      -0.32    49.45   -10.59    49.85     5.82   -32.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.29R   10.71  
Bristol_Rovers       27   28   -4      -6.72    18.86    -0.69    51.69     6.11    -7.32     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   32.93R    5.19  
Oxford_Utd           27   27  -10      -6.93    18.51    -4.76    50.57     6.18   -13.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   41.28R    8.03  
Bradford             27   27  -12      -6.22    21.04    -6.00    51.09     6.18   -14.97     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    38.47R    7.21  
Plymouth             27   27  -15      -4.64    27.71    -6.28    48.62     6.02   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   56.34R   13.65  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   23  -17      -5.98    20.91    -5.77    43.24     5.81   -25.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.69R   46.64  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Bury 4 3 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     26   52  +21       8.47    87.01     9.24    84.92     6.38    29.15    36.90    76.65    97.92    82.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             28   49  +21       0.25    50.85     5.07    80.91     6.05    32.04    15.93    57.29    94.16    68.48P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   47  +21      -0.27    47.78     3.54    83.84     6.32    34.94    32.03    74.12    97.33    82.09P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   46  +12       2.03    60.28     3.80    72.93     5.98    15.31     1.32    11.07    59.82    22.91P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        26   45  +17       1.82    59.51     6.18    78.85     6.23    26.40     9.32    41.43    88.72    55.37P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         28   45  +10       1.60    58.09     2.67    72.79     6.08    14.73     1.20    10.61    59.11    21.89P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   44  +14       7.83    85.04    13.45    71.82     6.34    14.66     1.21     9.36    52.01    16.76P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           27   44  +10       0.99    55.03     1.11    73.09     6.21    14.46     1.54    12.03    60.23    24.38P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         27   42   +8       3.98    69.71     6.68    67.46     6.21     7.09     0.18     2.34    25.63     6.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        28   41   -2       3.17    66.05    -1.12    64.69     5.92    -3.49     0.03     0.56    11.77     2.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           27   39   +7      -4.50    28.56    -2.70    68.96     6.24    12.68     0.32     3.97    35.06    12.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          28   37   -6      -1.42    43.47    -6.13    62.38     5.94    -5.14     0.01     0.18     6.04     1.39P    0.08R    0.01  
Newport_County   26   36   -8       3.87    70.36    -2.09    60.01     6.31   -13.42     0.01     0.14     3.61     0.67P    0.46R    0.07  
Crewe            28   35   -6      -0.03    50.57    -0.73    57.91     5.89    -8.66     0.00     0.02     1.34     0.24P    0.65R    0.12  
Grimsby          27   34   -5       1.69    59.69     1.65    56.24     5.95   -10.40     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.14P    1.21R    0.21  
Northampton      27   33   +0      -5.98    22.72    -2.84    61.12     6.29     3.01     0.01     0.20     5.46     1.50P    0.27R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     27   33   -6      -0.77    46.49    -0.86    55.30     5.96   -12.05     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.08P    2.00R    0.37  
Cheltenham       27   29   -9      -3.79    31.50    -2.15    52.89     6.09   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    5.40R    1.40  
Port_Vale        27   29  -10      -3.71    31.52    -4.01    52.42     5.95   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    5.93R    1.43  
Cambridge_Utd    28   29  -22      -2.56    37.41   -11.81    49.68     5.71   -27.95     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.62R    3.84  
Morecambe        28   28  -16      -2.10    39.97    -3.62    47.90     5.71   -22.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.54R    6.64  
Yeovil           26   27   -4      -4.58    27.06     1.89    52.32     6.21    -7.16     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    6.27R    1.77  
Macclesfield     28   24  -19      -2.18    39.63    -0.63    40.41     5.41   -31.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.75R   43.88  
Notts_County     28   21  -28     -10.62     7.66   -16.58    41.12     5.85   -35.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.79R   40.21  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 January 2019, Bromley 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       6.03    77.47    12.64    87.40     5.63    39.63    53.09    96.93    66.93P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.21    83.60    14.13    83.45     5.98    32.80    22.29    87.76    38.71P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   54  +19      11.18    91.92    14.30    79.30     5.73    22.13     6.77    68.22    18.90P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   53  +16       7.94    84.37     8.18    79.42     5.56    20.74     6.24    68.76    22.03P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       1.03    54.77     8.22    79.44     5.68    31.24     7.93    71.96    27.24P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.63    83.26     2.53    75.63     5.91    10.13     2.16    40.19     9.92P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.29    69.38    10.68    72.68     6.00    18.67     0.90    25.91     6.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          29   46   +8       2.43    62.10     2.09    70.50     5.74     9.91     0.25    14.26     3.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.15    49.35     5.25    69.79     5.80    15.73     0.17    12.55     3.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.48    79.50    -0.42    65.01     5.63    -7.03     0.01     2.01     0.32P    0.10R    0.00  
Bromley            29   39   -1      -1.83    41.49    -2.67    62.82     5.83    -0.38     0.01     1.04     0.21P    0.47R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.32    57.25     0.65    60.54     5.64    -4.19     0.00     0.35     0.06P    1.10R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.80    36.36    -3.09    61.51     5.71    -0.35     0.00     0.56     0.12P    0.83R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.89    41.05    -4.62    56.80     5.60   -10.40     0.00     0.05     0.01P    4.87R    0.01  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.99    29.57    -9.22    67.86     6.65     3.97     0.18     9.14     2.80P    0.16R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.67    24.21    -5.55    59.64     5.80    -2.02     0.00     0.27     0.06P    2.08R    0.00  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.19    50.14     1.59    53.88     5.63    -9.78     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.03R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.31    21.57   -12.66    54.15     5.77   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.00P   13.99R    0.13  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -3.15    35.56     1.99    46.60     5.67   -20.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.65R    1.94  
Maidenhead         28   28  -22      -2.05    40.02    -8.92    46.22     5.60   -32.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.97R    2.64  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.72    19.01   -14.52    49.04     5.81   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.13R    1.24  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.29     4.61   -11.66    52.12     6.07    -7.74     0.00     0.01     0.01P   21.74R    0.37  
Maidstone_United   28   25  -18      -4.15    29.53    -4.54    44.09     5.62   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.34R    5.77  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.83    22.11    -4.38    32.59     5.15   -43.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.54R   87.85