Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 12 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 January 2019, Man_City 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   54  +39       9.42    95.32    11.95    92.67     4.89    65.20    58.93    92.72    99.19    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   50  +39       1.53    59.74     2.25    90.46     4.65    70.44    37.16    87.39    98.34    99.78   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   48  +25       4.72    77.92     1.01    82.76     5.26    43.91     3.68    17.31    74.99    93.31    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   44  +22       3.13    68.57     3.35    76.13     5.35    35.66     0.21     2.03    18.80    63.52    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          21   41  +15       2.79    66.37    -0.76    72.23     5.59    27.71     0.02     0.44     6.53    29.65    98.20     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   38  +11      -1.44    40.26    -5.62    69.27     5.50    23.51     0.01     0.11     2.14    13.79    95.49     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   31   +2       1.76    60.97     2.08    54.10     5.54     0.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.62     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          21   29   -1       3.82    72.84     5.90    48.69     5.39    -8.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.12R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   29   -2       4.31    75.54     4.95    49.70     5.52    -6.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.08R    0.00  
West_Ham         21   28   -3       1.53    59.77     2.35    48.13     5.48    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.20R    0.00  
Everton          21   27   +0      -2.06    37.80     1.01    49.73     5.67    -1.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.11R    0.00  
Bournemouth      21   27   -9       2.65    67.05     0.68    46.89     5.50   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.48R    0.00  
Brighton         21   26   -5       2.33    65.12     3.51    45.11     5.30   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.81R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   21   22   -7      -2.67    34.21    -0.00    42.87     5.48   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.47R    0.03  
Newcastle        21   18  -14      -5.52    18.74    -5.53    37.09     5.33   -20.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.14R    0.66  
Burnley          21   18  -21      -4.31    24.48    -9.82    34.89     5.25   -31.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.05R    1.63  
Cardiff          21   18  -22      -0.17    50.53    -2.85    33.58     5.24   -36.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.18R    3.41  
Southampton      21   16  -17      -6.14    15.65    -5.00    36.33     5.52   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.57R    1.05  
Fulham           21   14  -28      -4.19    24.34    -5.84    27.85     5.14   -45.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.00R   19.25  
Huddersfield     21   10  -24      -6.67    10.61    -3.61    22.02     4.61   -43.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.79R   73.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Aston_Villa 2 2 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   51  +16      10.74    92.04     9.26    82.00     6.49    21.29    26.62    47.82    90.59    56.79P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   49  +14       9.36    88.65     8.04    80.20     6.47    19.65    17.99    36.01    85.58    46.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   47  +17       5.65    77.07     8.52    78.63     6.38    23.32    13.14    28.51    80.98    40.94P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   46  +20      -1.31    42.62     1.90    81.98     6.46    33.28    29.65    51.71    91.71    65.18P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   43  +10       0.48    52.54     0.09    75.57     6.24    17.38     5.22    13.84    65.64    29.50P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   43   +6       2.38    62.23    -1.33    75.33     6.46    13.35     4.90    12.99    62.63    25.78P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   39  +10       2.91    65.31     9.44    67.08     6.40    10.89     0.33     1.12    17.99     4.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   39  +10       5.76    78.34    13.43    64.54     6.27     7.21     0.12     0.50     9.37     1.93P    0.04R    0.00  
QPR             26   39   -1       5.51    77.04     2.55    64.02     6.24    -4.82     0.07     0.34     6.91     1.43P    0.08R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   38   +9      -4.17    29.02    -0.85    70.66     6.46    16.91     1.27     4.29    36.48    13.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   +4       0.81    54.37     1.76    66.09     6.37     4.90     0.19     0.84    13.45     3.50P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea         26   36   +4      -4.56    27.80    -3.22    66.83     6.48     8.99     0.32     1.21    16.87     5.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            26   36   +3      -1.40    43.03     0.59    64.18     6.43     3.85     0.08     0.37     8.74     2.16P    0.06R    0.00  
Stoke           26   35   -1      -3.52    32.52    -5.16    63.96     6.53     1.44     0.08     0.38     8.11     2.30P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   34   -8       1.68    59.47    -2.57    60.06     6.45   -10.26     0.00     0.06     2.22     0.43P    0.68R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   32  -10      -0.96    45.55    -5.71    58.38     6.38   -11.81     0.01     0.02     1.18     0.21P    1.21R    0.03  
Preston         26   29   -5      -6.24    20.76    -4.06    55.97     6.43    -5.84     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.14P    2.47R    0.07  
Brentford       26   28   +0      -9.09    11.51    -1.81    56.82     6.47     2.00     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.21P    1.94R    0.06  
Millwall        26   28   -8      -5.14    24.87    -4.01    52.60     6.22   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    6.47R    0.33  
Wigan           26   26  -15      -5.82    22.05    -9.38    51.73     6.40   -17.38     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   10.04R    0.69  
Rotherham       26   25  -16      -0.87    46.64    -0.34    44.04     6.02   -29.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.06R    7.96  
Bolton          26   22  -21      -1.65    41.58    -3.27    39.73     5.65   -35.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.25R   24.16  
Reading         26   20  -13      -8.78    11.00    -2.03    42.04     6.16   -21.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.34R   12.90  
Ipswich         26   15  -25     -11.99     3.90   -11.85    35.75     6.00   -35.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.21R   53.80  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2019, Charlton 1 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           26   57  +22      14.33    97.21    11.67    89.28     6.42    29.18    28.33    55.29    98.79    65.35P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   52  +25       7.24    82.08    11.27    86.68     6.50    35.99    18.52    41.43    97.30    56.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           25   51  +22       4.97    74.36     3.95    90.57     6.62    38.60    40.68    66.23    99.14    77.00P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             27   47  +12       4.71    72.74     4.28    77.54     6.26    18.62     1.02     4.39    71.82    19.45P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             25   46  +18       2.26    61.29     3.93    84.23     6.62    32.04    10.16    26.98    94.17    48.73P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            26   45  +15       4.96    73.97     8.53    75.15     6.42    18.92     0.59     2.63    57.50    13.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         26   44  +12       3.08    65.53     4.16    75.70     6.51    18.43     0.71     2.99    61.08    15.44P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             27   38   -2       5.03    74.76     3.23    61.29     6.06    -5.87     0.00     0.01     2.01     0.33P    2.30R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        26   35   +1      -2.07    39.94    -1.13    61.44     6.44    -0.48     0.00     0.00     2.99     0.58P    2.53R    0.11  
Southend             26   35   +1      -1.26    43.73     0.21    62.10     6.34     0.55     0.00     0.01     3.19     0.63P    1.97R    0.06  
Blackpool            25   35   +1       0.44    52.80     0.31    62.98     6.47     0.03     0.00     0.03     4.39     0.84P    1.56R    0.05  
Fleetwood_Town       26   34   +5      -2.75    36.32     3.44    63.14     6.46     7.56     0.00     0.01     5.04     1.02P    1.45R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   25   34   -8       5.16    76.21     0.01    57.95     6.45   -15.49     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.12P    9.20R    0.64  
Wycombe              26   32   -4       1.31    57.77     3.99    55.21     6.32   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P   17.03R    1.73  
Walsall              26   32  -13       1.87    60.74    -4.50    55.87     6.26   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   15.51R    1.41  
Shrewsbury           26   30   -3      -5.74    22.07    -3.30    58.04     6.34    -1.90     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.17P    7.38R    0.50  
Scunthorpe           27   30  -18      -4.86    26.92   -14.14    54.54     6.21   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   20.80R    2.52  
Rochdale             27   30  -23       0.29    52.56   -10.84    50.67     6.00   -32.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   43.68R    8.00  
Gillingham           26   28   -7      -4.11    29.66    -1.20    53.47     6.36   -10.33     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   24.64R    3.19  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27   -4      -6.33    20.03    -0.56    52.09     6.28    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   30.24R    4.61  
Bradford             26   27   -9      -6.12    20.66    -4.97    52.37     6.33   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   30.06R    4.39  
Oxford_Utd           26   26  -10      -6.71    18.57    -5.03    50.51     6.36   -14.60     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   41.24R    7.74  
Plymouth             26   24  -16      -6.15    20.55    -7.16    46.42     6.23   -24.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.92R   22.73  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   22  -17      -5.92    20.29    -6.14    43.39     6.07   -25.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.49R   42.22  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2019, Cambridge_Utd 2 0 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     25   51  +21       8.92    88.91     9.36    85.46     6.52    29.43    34.93    76.40    98.04    81.98P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   47  +22       0.83    53.73     4.30    85.21     6.56    35.88    36.21    77.02    97.91    84.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             27   46  +20      -0.96    44.83     4.77    79.10     6.23    30.69     8.84    41.64    89.69    56.58P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        25   45  +18       3.62    68.99     7.71    81.04     6.41    28.63    13.87    53.13    93.34    64.75P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         27   45  +13       2.11    60.61     4.30    74.57     6.24    18.33     2.01    15.65    69.96    28.66P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     25   43  +14       7.80    85.28    12.87    71.89     6.56    14.21     1.19     9.13    52.41    16.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter           26   43  +10       1.83    59.46     1.76    74.16     6.38    15.53     1.93    14.45    66.30    27.37P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       27   43   +9       1.38    57.12     2.17    70.81     6.18    11.65     0.48     5.58    45.18    14.70P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   39   +6       3.18    66.24     5.88    64.99     6.46     3.81     0.05     1.00    15.65     3.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           26   38   +7      -3.93    30.67    -2.50    69.99     6.44    13.73     0.47     5.09    41.93    15.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        27   38   -3       2.09    61.06    -1.31    63.22     6.11    -4.29     0.01     0.29     8.46     1.78P    0.04R    0.00  
Swindon          27   36   -6      -1.07    44.95    -6.19    62.59     6.09    -5.36     0.00     0.20     6.97     1.52P    0.06R    0.00  
Newport_County   25   36   -7       4.73    74.37    -1.93    61.36     6.53   -12.32     0.02     0.26     5.79     1.08P    0.25R    0.04  
Grimsby          26   34   -3       2.79    65.74     3.26    58.58     6.16    -6.97     0.00     0.04     2.12     0.37P    0.49R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     26   33   -5       0.04    50.91    -0.74    56.48     6.16   -11.27     0.00     0.02     1.04     0.20P    1.14R    0.20  
Crewe            27   32   -7      -1.29    43.83    -1.35    56.45     6.10    -9.37     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.15P    1.24R    0.20  
Northampton      26   30   -3      -6.70    19.26    -4.48    59.02     6.46    -0.72     0.00     0.06     3.11     0.66P    0.57R    0.08  
Cheltenham       26   29   -7      -2.94    35.31    -1.05    54.92     6.31    -9.49     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.12P    2.54R    0.41  
Port_Vale        26   29   -7      -3.39    32.54    -2.53    54.37     6.15    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.10P    2.82R    0.51  
Morecambe        27   27  -16      -2.33    38.34    -4.39    47.55     5.86   -24.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.84R    5.96  
Cambridge_Utd    27   26  -23      -4.28    28.60   -12.79    47.77     5.95   -29.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.27R    6.50  
Yeovil           25   24   -5      -6.34    19.16     0.79    49.68     6.31    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   12.05R    3.22  
Macclesfield     27   21  -21      -3.51    31.91    -1.98    37.84     5.52   -35.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.32R   60.92  
Notts_County     27   21  -27      -9.51     9.83   -15.93    42.91     6.06   -33.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.35R   21.89  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 January 2019, Bromley 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       5.87    77.18    12.36    87.50     5.61    39.80    53.64    97.10    67.43P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.14    83.52    13.99    83.50     6.01    32.91    22.44    87.92    38.98P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   54  +19      11.26    92.10    14.46    79.28     5.74    22.09     6.70    68.03    18.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   53  +16       7.99    84.63     8.23    79.44     5.57    20.74     6.08    68.84    21.87P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       1.03    55.03     8.22    79.35     5.67    31.13     7.60    71.30    27.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.64    83.44     2.56    75.66     5.91    10.16     2.05    40.29     9.88P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.24    69.36    10.55    72.71     6.00    18.70     0.90    26.11     6.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          29   46   +8       2.38    61.88     2.05    70.49     5.73     9.88     0.18    14.07     3.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.27    48.70     5.07    69.88     5.80    15.87     0.21    13.26     3.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.34    78.90    -0.65    65.06     5.62    -6.92     0.02     2.05     0.33P    0.14R    0.00  
Bromley            29   39   -1      -1.65    42.20    -2.38    62.69     5.81    -0.61     0.00     0.89     0.17P    0.48R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.15    56.18     0.40    60.66     5.63    -4.02     0.00     0.33     0.06P    1.01R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.88    36.29    -3.17    61.59     5.72    -0.26     0.00     0.61     0.15P    0.74R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.71    42.28    -4.30    56.66     5.61   -10.63     0.00     0.07     0.01P    5.11R    0.00  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.82    30.87    -8.94    67.79     6.64     3.88     0.17     8.90     2.62P    0.16R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.74    23.73    -5.67    59.67     5.77    -1.96     0.00     0.22     0.05P    1.95R    0.01  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.24    49.71     1.57    53.88     5.67    -9.80     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.46R    0.06  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.33    21.36   -12.68    54.20     5.78   -16.14     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.55R    0.13  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -3.12    35.66     1.96    46.57     5.65   -20.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.59R    1.81  
Maidenhead         28   28  -22      -1.97    40.67    -8.79    46.17     5.62   -32.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.14R    2.82  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.74    18.93   -14.58    49.04     5.83   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.26R    1.25  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.19     4.32   -11.49    52.03     6.03    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.86R    0.39  
Maidstone_United   28   25  -18      -4.14    29.69    -4.55    44.12     5.61   -26.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.97R    5.64  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.78    21.95    -4.22    32.53     5.12   -43.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.58R   87.88