Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 11 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 January 2019, Man_City 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   54  +39       9.33    95.26    11.76    92.75     4.90    65.34    59.15    93.04    99.27    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   50  +39       1.53    59.53     2.16    90.52     4.66    70.55    37.10    87.37    98.42    99.80   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   48  +25       4.67    77.62     0.91    82.73     5.22    43.90     3.52    17.08    75.17    93.35    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   44  +22       3.07    68.33     3.28    76.13     5.38    35.71     0.20     2.05    18.89    63.93    99.71     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          21   41  +15       2.98    67.50    -0.47    72.09     5.57    27.48     0.02     0.38     5.99    28.66    98.15     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   38  +11      -1.48    39.93    -5.69    69.36     5.50    23.66     0.00     0.08     2.27    14.28    95.71     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   31   +2       1.75    61.15     2.11    54.08     5.58     0.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.67     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          21   29   -1       3.79    73.04     5.85    48.73     5.39    -8.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.09R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   29   -2       4.30    75.53     4.95    49.71     5.54    -6.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.09R    0.00  
West_Ham         21   28   -3       1.72    60.92     2.61    48.00     5.48   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.21R    0.00  
Everton          21   27   +0      -2.04    37.79     1.07    49.68     5.68    -1.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.11R    0.00  
Bournemouth      21   27   -9       2.66    66.77     0.71    46.88     5.56   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.53R    0.01  
Brighton         21   26   -5       2.23    64.74     3.32    45.18     5.32   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.77R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   21   22   -7      -2.56    35.21     0.17    42.81     5.47   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.57R    0.03  
Newcastle        21   18  -14      -5.67    18.00    -5.80    37.28     5.33   -20.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.10R    0.61  
Burnley          21   18  -21      -4.27    24.71    -9.70    34.85     5.21   -32.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.42R    1.58  
Cardiff          21   18  -22      -0.19    50.78    -2.94    33.51     5.16   -36.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.44R    3.22  
Southampton      21   16  -17      -6.16    15.61    -4.95    36.43     5.54   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.39R    1.06  
Fulham           21   14  -28      -4.12    24.80    -5.71    27.79     5.12   -45.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.41R   19.91  
Huddersfield     21   10  -24      -6.74    10.49    -3.63    22.03     4.62   -43.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.88R   73.58  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Aston_Villa 2 2 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   51  +16      10.82    92.43     9.31    81.90     6.42    21.18    26.34    47.13    90.59    56.57P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   49  +14       9.38    88.84     8.19    80.10     6.43    19.44    17.94    35.84    85.30    46.22P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   47  +17       5.67    76.86     8.60    78.63     6.33    23.31    13.13    28.88    81.11    41.42P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   46  +20      -1.32    42.61     1.91    81.92     6.44    33.12    29.94    51.28    91.62    64.58P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   43  +10       0.49    52.72     0.15    75.50     6.22    17.27     5.02    13.71    65.02    28.74P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   43   +6       2.24    61.42    -1.53    75.39     6.40    13.43     4.98    13.38    62.48    26.07P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   39  +10       2.94    65.56     9.50    67.00     6.42    10.77     0.28     1.21    17.56     4.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   39  +10       5.64    77.81    13.22    64.71     6.27     7.50     0.12     0.59     9.70     2.04P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             26   39   -1       5.72    77.94     2.87    63.96     6.28    -4.92     0.09     0.37     6.89     1.44P    0.06R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   38   +9      -4.28    28.66    -1.06    70.80     6.53    17.10     1.47     4.74    37.68    13.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   +4       0.89    55.11     1.87    66.04     6.40     4.84     0.23     0.82    13.24     3.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea         26   36   +4      -4.48    28.35    -3.11    66.78     6.51     8.96     0.29     1.18    16.89     5.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            26   36   +3      -1.22    44.09     0.85    64.13     6.43     3.77     0.07     0.39     8.53     2.16P    0.06R    0.00  
Stoke           26   35   -1      -3.67    32.02    -5.42    64.08     6.51     1.61     0.08     0.37     8.16     2.37P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   34   -8       1.42    57.95    -2.95    60.24     6.51   -10.06     0.01     0.06     2.54     0.49P    0.59R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed       26   32  -10      -1.05    45.38    -5.87    58.44     6.41   -11.72     0.00     0.02     1.22     0.24P    1.22R    0.02  
Preston         26   29   -5      -6.34    20.23    -4.20    56.00     6.42    -5.77     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.11P    2.32R    0.08  
Brentford       26   28   +0      -9.05    11.66    -1.76    56.80     6.46     1.99     0.00     0.02     0.79     0.17P    1.86R    0.08  
Millwall        26   28   -8      -5.04    25.32    -3.89    52.52     6.24   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    6.75R    0.31  
Wigan           26   26  -15      -5.78    22.31    -9.30    51.66     6.37   -17.49     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   10.08R    0.74  
Rotherham       26   25  -16      -0.87    46.58    -0.37    44.05     5.99   -29.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.69R    7.72  
Bolton          26   22  -21      -1.48    42.62    -3.06    39.63     5.63   -35.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.62R   24.95  
Reading         26   20  -13      -8.81    10.97    -2.17    42.11     6.13   -21.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.21R   12.44  
Ipswich         26   15  -25     -11.97     3.81   -11.80    35.78     5.96   -35.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.38R   53.64  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2019, Charlton 1 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           26   57  +22      14.41    97.28    11.74    89.21     6.44    29.14    28.12    55.37    98.61    65.37P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   52  +25       7.14    82.21    11.15    86.77     6.48    36.11    19.05    42.11    97.48    57.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           25   51  +22       4.93    74.04     3.89    90.61     6.60    38.57    40.74    66.03    99.14    76.88P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             27   47  +12       4.69    72.73     4.25    77.54     6.22    18.61     0.89     4.12    71.86    19.27P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             25   46  +18       2.22    61.34     3.88    84.24     6.58    32.05     9.94    26.92    94.40    48.67P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            26   45  +15       5.04    74.38     8.58    75.13     6.43    18.91     0.60     2.70    57.43    13.56P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         26   44  +12       3.06    65.30     4.15    75.63     6.42    18.33     0.65     2.68    60.61    15.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             27   38   -2       4.85    73.73     3.00    61.41     6.07    -5.73     0.00     0.01     2.03     0.32P    2.26R    0.09  
Burton_Albion        26   35   +1      -2.09    39.72    -1.18    61.51     6.43    -0.34     0.00     0.01     2.97     0.63P    2.45R    0.11  
Southend             26   35   +1      -1.27    43.75     0.13    62.14     6.40     0.56     0.00     0.01     3.61     0.66P    2.00R    0.06  
Blackpool            25   35   +1       0.44    52.78     0.33    62.94     6.46    -0.03     0.00     0.02     4.33     0.85P    1.55R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town       26   34   +5      -2.74    36.20     3.53    63.05     6.41     7.44     0.00     0.01     4.73     0.96P    1.44R    0.06  
Accrington_Stanley   25   34   -8       5.26    76.76     0.13    57.89     6.47   -15.55     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.13P    9.40R    0.71  
Wycombe              26   32   -4       1.33    57.75     3.97    55.26     6.33   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P   16.99R    1.67  
Walsall              26   32  -13       2.04    61.80    -4.20    55.77     6.25   -18.50     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P   15.65R    1.50  
Shrewsbury           26   30   -3      -5.68    22.33    -3.25    57.92     6.29    -2.06     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.17P    7.77R    0.51  
Scunthorpe           27   30  -18      -4.93    26.85   -14.22    54.62     6.21   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   20.41R    2.56  
Rochdale             27   30  -23       0.38    53.04   -10.71    50.65     5.97   -32.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.68R    7.98  
Gillingham           26   28   -7      -4.08    30.08    -1.17    53.50     6.35   -10.34     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   24.13R    3.29  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27   -4      -6.57    18.88    -0.87    52.15     6.32    -7.19     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   30.03R    4.47  
Bradford             26   27   -9      -6.06    21.03    -4.86    52.34     6.40   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   30.58R    4.67  
Oxford_Utd           26   26  -10      -6.75    18.39    -5.11    50.59     6.36   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   40.89R    7.58  
Plymouth             26   24  -16      -6.08    20.84    -6.96    46.40     6.20   -24.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.01R   22.41  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   22  -17      -5.94    20.60    -6.21    43.40     6.01   -25.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.78R   42.27  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2019, Cambridge_Utd 2 0 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     25   51  +21       8.82    88.67     9.23    85.46     6.51    29.45    34.42    76.17    98.00    81.73P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   47  +22       0.82    53.85     4.30    85.23     6.55    35.89    36.03    76.64    97.96    83.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             27   46  +20      -1.25    43.28     4.30    79.31     6.25    31.05     9.24    42.54    90.20    57.83P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        25   45  +18       3.46    67.95     7.49    81.16     6.44    28.87    14.23    53.13    93.34    65.04P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         27   45  +13       2.04    60.35     4.20    74.62     6.24    18.41     1.96    15.70    69.97    28.56P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     25   43  +14       7.93    86.11    13.15    71.72     6.52    13.93     1.08     8.42    51.33    15.69P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   43  +10       1.52    57.93     1.30    74.34     6.41    15.80     2.02    15.01    67.14    27.97P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       27   43   +9       1.27    56.83     2.05    70.89     6.14    11.75     0.48     5.54    45.53    14.70P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   39   +6       3.18    66.36     5.84    65.03     6.45     3.88     0.07     0.99    15.80     3.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           26   38   +7      -3.88    30.78    -2.42    70.00     6.45    13.73     0.43     4.93    41.49    14.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        27   38   -3       2.06    61.03    -1.35    63.25     6.11    -4.23     0.01     0.31     8.51     1.85P    0.03R    0.00  
Swindon          27   36   -6      -1.19    44.37    -6.37    62.71     6.09    -5.18     0.00     0.21     7.13     1.61P    0.08R    0.01  
Newport_County   25   36   -7       4.67    74.53    -1.96    61.41     6.50   -12.25     0.03     0.27     5.78     1.14P    0.20R    0.02  
Grimsby          26   34   -3       2.81    65.67     3.31    58.57     6.17    -6.97     0.00     0.04     2.11     0.37P    0.50R    0.06  
Crawley_Town     26   33   -5       0.12    51.36    -0.66    56.54     6.10   -11.21     0.00     0.02     0.96     0.17P    1.17R    0.18  
Crewe            27   32   -7      -1.18    44.43    -1.17    56.27     6.05    -9.63     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.13P    1.33R    0.20  
Northampton      26   30   -3      -6.47    20.04    -4.19    58.83     6.47    -1.02     0.00     0.05     2.83     0.70P    0.57R    0.08  
Cheltenham       26   29   -7      -2.93    35.52    -1.05    54.84     6.28    -9.58     0.00     0.01     0.55     0.11P    2.68R    0.48  
Port_Vale        26   29   -7      -3.29    33.01    -2.39    54.40     6.18    -9.89     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.09P    2.72R    0.51  
Morecambe        27   27  -16      -2.28    38.73    -4.29    47.45     5.84   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.90R    5.84  
Cambridge_Utd    27   26  -23      -4.08    29.68   -12.59    47.70     5.94   -29.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.23R    6.44  
Yeovil           25   24   -5      -6.27    19.34     0.93    49.63     6.30    -9.74     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   12.01R    3.26  
Macclesfield     27   21  -21      -3.32    32.94    -1.63    37.69     5.49   -35.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.89R   61.66  
Notts_County     27   21  -27      -9.56     9.74   -16.04    42.96     6.06   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.68R   21.27  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 January 2019, Bromley 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       6.03    77.45    12.59    87.35     5.64    39.61    52.69    96.94    66.66P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.24    83.96    14.15    83.46     5.97    32.82    22.37    87.78    38.39P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   54  +19      11.29    92.05    14.48    79.28     5.73    22.12     6.88    68.02    18.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   53  +16       7.93    84.47     8.19    79.43     5.55    20.75     6.23    68.95    21.77P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       0.94    54.42     8.02    79.49     5.67    31.31     8.15    71.94    27.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.73    83.67     2.66    75.64     5.92    10.14     2.20    40.63    10.19P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.18    69.04    10.52    72.71     6.02    18.66     0.85    25.98     6.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          29   46   +8       2.44    61.98     2.19    70.45     5.76     9.85     0.26    14.01     3.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.11    49.49     5.32    69.75     5.80    15.70     0.17    12.62     3.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.40    79.06    -0.61    65.06     5.63    -6.94     0.01     2.03     0.34P    0.13R    0.00  
Bromley            29   39   -1      -1.74    41.73    -2.49    62.81     5.81    -0.45     0.00     0.99     0.20P    0.48R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.17    56.54     0.43    60.62     5.64    -4.11     0.00     0.36     0.07P    0.99R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.64    37.29    -2.88    61.45     5.70    -0.43     0.00     0.63     0.15P    0.76R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.76    41.62    -4.43    56.74     5.59   -10.50     0.00     0.06     0.02P    5.06R    0.01  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.82    30.79    -8.93    67.72     6.65     3.81     0.19     8.79     2.66P    0.15R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.61    24.24    -5.48    59.63     5.83    -2.06     0.00     0.27     0.05P    2.09R    0.01  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.37    48.86     1.37    53.91     5.66    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.00P   13.21R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.57    20.44   -13.05    54.33     5.74   -15.95     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.28R    0.12  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -3.15    35.87     1.97    46.58     5.69   -20.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.65R    1.97  
Maidenhead         28   28  -22      -2.14    39.79    -9.08    46.29     5.63   -32.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.75R    2.64  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.79    18.59   -14.57    49.03     5.80   -24.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.53R    1.29  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.13     4.76   -11.45    52.02     6.05    -7.94     0.00     0.01     0.00P   22.19R    0.46  
Maidstone_United   28   25  -18      -4.24    29.10    -4.70    44.16     5.61   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.16R    5.63  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.76    22.33    -4.23    32.57     5.16   -43.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.55R   87.81