Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 10 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 January 2019, Man_City 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   54  +39       9.39    95.41    11.92    92.69     4.90    65.21    58.60    92.85    99.22    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   50  +39       1.53    59.23     2.15    90.51     4.70    70.57    37.67    87.18    98.26    99.76   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   48  +25       4.64    77.40     0.88    82.74     5.22    43.93     3.48    17.41    75.44    93.38    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   44  +22       3.20    69.04     3.48    76.06     5.35    35.59     0.21     2.04    18.68    63.54    99.71     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          21   41  +15       2.94    67.37    -0.53    72.19     5.60    27.55     0.03     0.41     6.25    29.49    98.14     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   38  +11      -1.43    40.33    -5.58    69.27     5.55    23.48     0.00     0.10     2.15    13.89    95.36     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   31   +2       1.80    61.49     2.17    54.06     5.55     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     3.86     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          21   29   -1       3.86    73.24     5.97    48.69     5.44    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.12R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   29   -2       4.23    75.08     4.90    49.75     5.55    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.06R    0.00  
West_Ham         21   28   -3       1.74    61.28     2.63    48.02     5.44   -10.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.18R    0.00  
Everton          21   27   +0      -2.06    37.52     1.01    49.78     5.66    -1.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.09R    0.00  
Bournemouth      21   27   -9       2.64    66.83     0.65    46.85     5.50   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.57R    0.00  
Brighton         21   26   -5       2.23    64.91     3.32    45.21     5.30   -12.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.69R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   21   22   -7      -2.65    34.24     0.03    42.87     5.43   -11.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.52R    0.03  
Newcastle        21   18  -14      -5.60    18.23    -5.68    37.16     5.33   -20.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.80R    0.66  
Burnley          21   18  -21      -4.26    24.87    -9.70    34.87     5.21   -31.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.41R    1.54  
Cardiff          21   18  -22      -0.27    49.96    -3.00    33.57     5.21   -36.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.20R    3.32  
Southampton      21   16  -17      -6.15    15.53    -4.97    36.36     5.50   -22.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.50R    1.06  
Fulham           21   14  -28      -4.20    24.32    -5.98    27.92     5.14   -45.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.91R   18.95  
Huddersfield     21   10  -24      -6.73    10.45    -3.66    21.97     4.60   -43.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.94R   74.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Aston_Villa 2 2 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   51  +16      10.75    92.05     9.21    81.87     6.46    21.17    26.19    46.71    90.56    56.10P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   49  +14       9.36    88.51     8.12    80.13     6.45    19.49    17.96    36.16    85.38    46.54P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   47  +17       5.63    76.79     8.50    78.72     6.39    23.50    13.37    29.12    81.49    41.58P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   46  +20      -1.33    42.62     1.86    81.96     6.46    33.23    29.90    51.61    91.63    64.95P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   43  +10       0.48    52.42     0.15    75.55     6.26    17.33     5.28    14.11    65.07    29.80P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   43   +6       2.39    62.31    -1.32    75.35     6.31    13.35     4.68    12.72    62.96    25.45P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   39  +10       2.79    64.69     9.28    67.13     6.36    10.95     0.30     1.19    18.06     4.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   39  +10       5.61    77.87    13.19    64.70     6.26     7.47     0.10     0.45     9.66     2.10P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             26   39   -1       5.74    77.87     2.86    63.97     6.31    -4.90     0.10     0.38     7.15     1.46P    0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   38   +9      -4.24    28.73    -0.94    70.69     6.51    17.01     1.45     4.66    36.99    13.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   +4       0.75    54.29     1.71    66.11     6.32     4.93     0.20     0.76    13.27     3.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         26   36   +4      -4.32    29.02    -2.93    66.70     6.46     8.82     0.29     1.18    16.26     5.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            26   36   +3      -1.39    43.16     0.65    64.20     6.38     3.87     0.09     0.44     8.51     2.19P    0.09R    0.00  
Stoke           26   35   -1      -3.51    32.79    -5.14    63.92     6.52     1.37     0.09     0.42     7.84     2.15P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   34   -8       1.67    59.15    -2.55    60.10     6.46   -10.23     0.01     0.05     2.29     0.41P    0.66R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       26   32  -10      -1.10    44.78    -5.94    58.49     6.41   -11.63     0.00     0.03     1.25     0.24P    1.17R    0.04  
Preston         26   29   -5      -6.36    20.11    -4.23    56.03     6.43    -5.71     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.12P    2.36R    0.09  
Brentford       26   28   +0      -9.19    11.43    -2.02    56.94     6.44     2.18     0.00     0.01     0.89     0.24P    1.73R    0.06  
Millwall        26   28   -8      -5.25    24.58    -4.19    52.66     6.24   -12.28     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    6.16R    0.27  
Wigan           26   26  -15      -5.76    22.45    -9.29    51.61     6.41   -17.54     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   10.30R    0.73  
Rotherham       26   25  -16      -0.61    47.83     0.10    43.82     5.98   -29.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.16R    8.05  
Bolton          26   22  -21      -1.65    41.82    -3.29    39.68     5.66   -35.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.13R   24.44  
Reading         26   20  -13      -8.80    11.25    -2.03    42.10     6.10   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.80R   12.58  
Ipswich         26   15  -25     -11.94     3.87   -11.75    35.74     5.97   -35.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.21R   53.72  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2019, Charlton 1 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           26   57  +22      14.43    97.25    11.84    89.16     6.41    29.00    27.79    54.89    98.65    64.80P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   52  +25       7.32    82.66    11.44    86.62     6.51    35.92    18.30    41.27    97.14    56.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           25   51  +22       4.91    74.06     3.84    90.66     6.59    38.71    41.40    66.62    99.10    77.08P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             27   47  +12       4.76    72.96     4.35    77.53     6.27    18.59     0.99     4.43    71.57    19.49P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             25   46  +18       2.22    61.24     3.86    84.25     6.61    32.02    10.21    26.87    94.34    48.87P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            26   45  +15       4.97    74.15     8.49    75.19     6.45    18.97     0.64     2.74    58.07    13.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         26   44  +12       3.26    66.38     4.45    75.58     6.51    18.24     0.67     3.12    60.42    15.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             27   38   -2       4.89    74.20     3.03    61.40     6.03    -5.71     0.00     0.00     2.09     0.31P    2.10R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        26   35   +1      -2.05    39.96    -1.08    61.42     6.42    -0.46     0.00     0.01     3.04     0.64P    2.41R    0.06  
Southend             26   35   +1      -1.23    44.00     0.22    62.10     6.40     0.49     0.00     0.01     3.42     0.74P    2.01R    0.07  
Blackpool            25   35   +1       0.42    52.46     0.33    62.90     6.46    -0.10     0.00     0.02     4.45     0.84P    1.55R    0.04  
Fleetwood_Town       26   34   +5      -2.86    35.66     3.34    63.15     6.45     7.57     0.00     0.03     4.91     1.11P    1.51R    0.06  
Accrington_Stanley   25   34   -8       5.03    75.58    -0.22    58.06     6.47   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.14P    9.03R    0.66  
Wycombe              26   32   -4       1.27    57.37     3.91    55.25     6.36   -10.68     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P   16.93R    1.71  
Walsall              26   32  -13       1.92    61.27    -4.37    55.85     6.25   -18.42     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   15.62R    1.41  
Shrewsbury           26   30   -3      -5.77    22.39    -3.39    58.05     6.40    -1.90     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.17P    7.66R    0.52  
Scunthorpe           27   30  -18      -4.99    26.60   -14.30    54.64     6.22   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   20.52R    2.48  
Rochdale             27   30  -23       0.33    52.59   -10.82    50.73     5.98   -32.21     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    43.25R    7.88  
Gillingham           26   28   -7      -4.12    29.82    -1.25    53.56     6.33   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P   24.00R    3.02  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27   -4      -6.30    20.07    -0.47    51.98     6.25    -7.49     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   30.80R    4.44  
Bradford             26   27   -9      -6.15    20.79    -5.06    52.41     6.34   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   29.63R    4.43  
Oxford_Utd           26   26  -10      -6.79    18.27    -5.22    50.54     6.33   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   40.80R    7.60  
Plymouth             26   24  -16      -5.98    21.08    -6.85    46.27     6.20   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   69.07R   23.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   22  -17      -5.85    20.83    -6.07    43.34     6.00   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.10R   42.48  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2019, Cambridge_Utd 2 0 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     25   51  +21       8.90    88.83     9.34    85.42     6.56    29.38    34.65    75.93    98.01    81.58P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   47  +22       0.87    53.95     4.33    85.14     6.52    35.76    35.60    76.53    97.94    83.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             27   46  +20      -1.16    43.79     4.48    79.28     6.26    31.01     9.23    42.69    90.03    57.25P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        25   45  +18       3.51    68.10     7.55    81.16     6.39    28.83    14.33    53.66    93.53    65.31P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         27   45  +13       2.05    60.45     4.23    74.55     6.26    18.33     2.04    15.39    69.80    28.62P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     25   43  +14       7.81    85.33    12.87    71.73     6.52    13.98     1.04     8.54    51.42    15.90P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   43  +10       1.65    58.76     1.51    74.22     6.41    15.64     2.02    14.65    66.54    27.67P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       27   43   +9       1.27    56.28     2.02    70.92     6.13    11.81     0.53     5.59    45.94    15.04P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   39   +6       3.04    65.87     5.70    65.11     6.44     4.01     0.07     1.07    16.24     3.91P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           26   38   +7      -3.89    30.67    -2.43    69.95     6.48    13.68     0.45     5.07    41.80    15.06P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        27   38   -3       2.14    61.52    -1.27    63.15     6.10    -4.34     0.01     0.30     8.12     1.69P    0.06R    0.01  
Swindon          27   36   -6      -1.14    44.43    -6.30    62.66     6.12    -5.23     0.01     0.21     7.03     1.53P    0.07R    0.01  
Newport_County   25   36   -7       4.89    75.32    -1.70    61.27     6.51   -12.45     0.01     0.22     5.54     0.97P    0.24R    0.03  
Grimsby          26   34   -3       2.82    65.82     3.30    58.58     6.16    -6.97     0.00     0.03     2.12     0.34P    0.51R    0.08  
Crawley_Town     26   33   -5       0.10    51.10    -0.68    56.52     6.13   -11.26     0.00     0.02     0.98     0.16P    1.20R    0.18  
Crewe            27   32   -7      -1.24    44.15    -1.24    56.33     6.06    -9.58     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.15P    1.27R    0.18  
Northampton      26   30   -3      -6.56    19.86    -4.25    58.91     6.47    -0.89     0.00     0.08     2.98     0.73P    0.68R    0.09  
Cheltenham       26   29   -7      -2.87    35.52    -0.94    54.82     6.27    -9.62     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.10P    2.56R    0.45  
Port_Vale        26   29   -7      -3.29    33.28    -2.40    54.36     6.19    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.08P    2.90R    0.56  
Morecambe        27   27  -16      -2.29    38.74    -4.29    47.57     5.85   -24.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.56R    5.63  
Cambridge_Utd    27   26  -23      -4.08    29.68   -12.57    47.70     5.93   -29.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.77R    6.51  
Yeovil           25   24   -5      -6.49    18.45     0.54    49.85     6.31    -9.46     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   11.61R    3.09  
Macclesfield     27   21  -21      -3.29    33.20    -1.57    37.67     5.54   -35.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.96R   62.27  
Notts_County     27   21  -27      -9.65     9.38   -16.22    43.05     6.07   -33.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.59R   20.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 January 2019, Bromley 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       6.15    78.24    12.74    87.35     5.61    39.60    53.03    97.05    66.91P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.34    83.87    14.31    83.39     6.00    32.74    22.14    87.53    38.10P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   54  +19      11.23    91.80    14.37    79.33     5.74    22.17     6.96    68.54    19.11P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   53  +16       8.05    84.63     8.31    79.28     5.57    20.56     6.02    67.92    21.27P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       0.95    54.48     8.06    79.45     5.64    31.22     8.12    72.02    27.62P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.66    83.40     2.57    75.64     5.94    10.16     2.20    40.43    10.12P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.16    68.72    10.47    72.77     6.02    18.79     0.92    26.52     6.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          29   46   +8       2.44    62.27     2.19    70.47     5.74     9.87     0.22    13.86     3.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.27    48.68     5.14    69.87     5.80    15.83     0.20    13.18     3.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.44    79.14    -0.45    65.01     5.61    -7.01     0.01     1.89     0.32P    0.11R    0.00  
Bromley            29   39   -1      -1.65    42.30    -2.34    62.75     5.82    -0.46     0.00     0.90     0.18P    0.53R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.15    56.09     0.36    60.60     5.67    -4.09     0.00     0.36     0.06P    1.08R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.81    36.46    -3.11    61.54     5.70    -0.32     0.00     0.59     0.15P    0.72R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.85    41.15    -4.51    56.76     5.57   -10.45     0.00     0.04     0.01P    4.87R    0.02  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.92    29.90    -9.11    67.83     6.64     3.95     0.17     8.85     2.78P    0.13R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.66    24.21    -5.58    59.66     5.80    -2.00     0.00     0.29     0.08P    2.03R    0.00  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.23    49.62     1.54    53.86     5.65    -9.80     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.34R    0.06  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.40    21.01   -12.82    54.17     5.75   -16.19     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.59R    0.12  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -3.14    36.03     1.92    46.53     5.70   -20.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.97R    2.15  
Maidenhead         28   28  -22      -2.17    39.57    -9.14    46.32     5.64   -32.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.19R    2.82  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.72    18.73   -14.52    49.04     5.85   -24.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.43R    1.31  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.16     4.68   -11.48    52.04     6.04    -7.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.17R    0.40  
Maidstone_United   28   25  -18      -4.24    28.92    -4.68    44.16     5.57   -26.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.30R    5.67  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.83    21.96    -4.25    32.63     5.18   -43.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.53R   87.46