Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 7 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 January 2019, Man_City 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   54  +39       9.34    95.17    11.78    92.76     4.90    65.38    59.34    92.94    99.20    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   50  +39       1.54    59.82     2.28    90.48     4.65    70.51    37.05    87.48    98.34    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   48  +25       4.63    77.44     0.86    82.68     5.21    43.83     3.40    16.92    75.51    93.39    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   44  +22       3.14    68.64     3.40    76.06     5.37    35.56     0.19     2.17    18.64    63.32    99.71     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          21   41  +15       2.86    67.10    -0.69    72.19     5.60    27.65     0.02     0.39     6.25    29.78    98.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   38  +11      -1.36    40.59    -5.52    69.24     5.51    23.40     0.01     0.10     2.07    13.74    95.43     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   31   +2       1.70    60.72     2.03    54.16     5.58     0.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.90     0.01R    0.00  
Watford          21   29   -1       3.85    72.88     5.97    48.66     5.37    -8.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.14R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   29   -2       4.32    75.31     5.01    49.68     5.55    -6.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.10R    0.00  
West_Ham         21   28   -3       1.67    60.64     2.52    48.13     5.47    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.19R    0.00  
Everton          21   27   +0      -2.09    37.59     0.96    49.78     5.63    -1.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.13R    0.00  
Bournemouth      21   27   -9       2.65    66.97     0.65    46.89     5.48   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.49R    0.00  
Brighton         21   26   -5       2.19    64.63     3.27    45.25     5.28   -12.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.78R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   21   22   -7      -2.60    34.49     0.13    42.79     5.45   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.58R    0.03  
Newcastle        21   18  -14      -5.51    18.50    -5.56    37.14     5.29   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.54R    0.61  
Burnley          21   18  -21      -4.31    24.70    -9.79    34.90     5.21   -31.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.95R    1.47  
Cardiff          21   18  -22      -0.22    50.12    -2.94    33.54     5.18   -36.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.40R    3.17  
Southampton      21   16  -17      -6.13    15.67    -4.97    36.30     5.50   -22.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.95R    1.11  
Fulham           21   14  -28      -4.15    24.64    -5.77    27.87     5.15   -45.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.84R   19.27  
Huddersfield     21   10  -24      -6.73    10.61    -3.61    21.97     4.61   -43.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.91R   74.33  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Aston_Villa 2 2 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   51  +16      10.79    92.27     9.27    81.89     6.48    21.15    26.32    47.08    90.52    56.40P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   49  +14       9.25    88.39     7.95    80.16     6.44    19.57    18.17    36.51    85.58    46.63P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   47  +17       5.60    76.59     8.45    78.71     6.33    23.43    13.43    29.09    81.63    41.56P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   46  +20      -1.19    43.33     2.08    81.80     6.43    33.01    29.26    50.72    91.36    64.23P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   43  +10       0.46    52.25     0.11    75.57     6.26    17.36     5.32    14.23    65.29    29.78P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   43   +6       2.42    62.55    -1.28    75.37     6.39    13.36     4.91    12.98    62.79    25.52P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   39  +10       2.96    65.52     9.51    67.03     6.40    10.80     0.33     1.23    17.73     4.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   39  +10       5.72    78.19    13.33    64.60     6.28     7.31     0.10     0.45     9.51     1.99P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             26   39   -1       5.54    77.02     2.62    64.00     6.29    -4.87     0.06     0.33     7.04     1.37P    0.08R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   38   +9      -4.17    29.30    -0.89    70.72     6.52    16.98     1.46     4.64    37.05    13.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   +4       0.78    54.32     1.70    66.14     6.36     4.97     0.21     0.85    13.68     3.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         26   36   +4      -4.44    28.38    -3.12    66.74     6.43     8.85     0.28     1.13    16.43     5.32P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            26   36   +3      -1.23    43.90     0.83    64.13     6.38     3.72     0.06     0.32     8.38     1.91P    0.10R    0.00  
Stoke           26   35   -1      -3.52    32.71    -5.15    63.93     6.49     1.40     0.08     0.35     7.81     2.30P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   34   -8       1.72    59.77    -2.52    60.01     6.49   -10.35     0.01     0.04     2.27     0.46P    0.69R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed       26   32  -10      -1.02    45.18    -5.74    58.39     6.42   -11.75     0.00     0.02     1.17     0.27P    1.28R    0.04  
Preston         26   29   -5      -6.42    19.75    -4.31    56.10     6.39    -5.68     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.12P    2.25R    0.08  
Brentford       26   28   +0      -9.22    11.17    -2.08    56.99     6.47     2.25     0.00     0.02     0.95     0.25P    1.73R    0.06  
Millwall        26   28   -8      -5.20    24.60    -4.15    52.62     6.26   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    6.63R    0.37  
Wigan           26   26  -15      -5.74    22.47    -9.27    51.60     6.37   -17.55     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   10.28R    0.71  
Rotherham       26   25  -16      -0.85    46.61    -0.25    44.06     6.02   -29.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.11R    7.94  
Bolton          26   22  -21      -1.63    41.48    -3.25    39.75     5.64   -35.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.39R   24.13  
Reading         26   20  -13      -8.80    10.99    -2.05    42.10     6.17   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.12R   13.03  
Ipswich         26   15  -25     -11.98     3.85   -11.81    35.82     5.99   -35.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.15R   53.62  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2019, Charlton 1 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           26   57  +22      14.40    97.43    11.74    89.19     6.36    29.10    28.41    55.43    98.84    65.40P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   52  +25       7.23    82.54    11.26    86.71     6.45    36.02    18.83    41.82    97.30    57.01P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           25   51  +22       5.27    75.50     4.43    90.34     6.60    38.19    39.73    65.03    99.05    76.09P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             27   47  +12       4.68    72.80     4.21    77.53     6.24    18.63     0.96     4.30    71.91    19.40P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             25   46  +18       2.25    61.64     3.92    84.26     6.63    32.06    10.70    27.42    94.33    48.99P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            26   45  +15       4.95    73.77     8.47    75.20     6.45    18.98     0.67     2.90    57.76    13.95P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         26   44  +12       3.05    65.32     4.15    75.62     6.49    18.33     0.71     3.06    60.13    15.38P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             27   38   -2       4.79    73.54     2.91    61.43     6.07    -5.68     0.00     0.00     2.09     0.29P    2.13R    0.08  
Burton_Albion        26   35   +1      -2.04    40.00    -1.08    61.48     6.39    -0.43     0.00     0.01     3.00     0.61P    2.36R    0.08  
Southend             26   35   +1      -1.12    44.59     0.38    62.00     6.34     0.38     0.00     0.01     3.14     0.60P    2.03R    0.06  
Blackpool            25   35   +1       0.46    52.79     0.36    62.99     6.48     0.04     0.00     0.01     4.58     0.80P    1.54R    0.04  
Fleetwood_Town       26   34   +5      -2.90    35.43     3.28    63.25     6.45     7.70     0.00     0.01     5.14     1.08P    1.32R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   25   34   -8       5.16    76.34     0.00    57.93     6.42   -15.44     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.10P    9.19R    0.71  
Wycombe              26   32   -4       1.47    58.33     4.16    55.25     6.36   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P   17.19R    1.68  
Walsall              26   32  -13       1.89    60.67    -4.42    55.86     6.26   -18.41     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.03P   15.70R    1.48  
Shrewsbury           26   30   -3      -5.90    21.63    -3.54    58.12     6.34    -1.80     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.15P    7.48R    0.50  
Scunthorpe           27   30  -18      -4.92    26.95   -14.24    54.55     6.19   -20.68     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   20.86R    2.47  
Rochdale             27   30  -23       0.27    52.42   -10.85    50.74     6.02   -32.18     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   43.15R    7.79  
Gillingham           26   28   -7      -4.14    29.70    -1.24    53.53     6.36   -10.25     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   23.91R    3.26  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27   -4      -6.43    19.47    -0.69    52.13     6.34    -7.23     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   30.15R    4.47  
Bradford             26   27   -9      -6.08    20.75    -4.96    52.33     6.31   -12.21     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   30.20R    4.51  
Oxford_Utd           26   26  -10      -6.76    18.48    -5.12    50.53     6.34   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   41.11R    7.53  
Plymouth             26   24  -16      -6.09    20.89    -7.04    46.35     6.25   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.52R   22.84  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   22  -17      -5.88    20.64    -6.10    43.33     6.01   -25.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.15R   42.45  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2019, Cambridge_Utd 2 0 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     25   51  +21       8.93    88.86     9.30    85.41     6.55    29.39    34.76    75.76    98.01    81.54P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   47  +22       0.88    54.15     4.37    85.17     6.52    35.77    35.85    76.66    97.83    83.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             27   46  +20      -1.07    44.43     4.61    79.12     6.26    30.75     8.91    41.56    89.53    56.62P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        25   45  +18       3.49    68.24     7.51    81.14     6.38    28.84    14.31    53.44    93.51    65.18P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         27   45  +13       2.11    60.66     4.33    74.56     6.27    18.33     1.99    15.58    69.63    28.72P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     25   43  +14       7.90    85.73    13.00    71.74     6.58    13.98     1.10     8.85    51.05    16.05P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   43  +10       1.57    58.44     1.38    74.32     6.45    15.75     2.07    15.07    67.04    27.88P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       27   43   +9       1.24    56.60     1.96    70.98     6.17    11.85     0.48     5.86    45.86    14.99P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   39   +6       3.10    66.02     5.77    65.07     6.45     3.93     0.07     1.06    15.83     3.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           26   38   +7      -3.95    30.40    -2.52    70.13     6.47    13.94     0.42     5.22    42.56    15.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        27   38   -3       1.91    60.08    -1.58    63.29     6.06    -4.10     0.02     0.31     8.28     1.69P    0.05R    0.00  
Swindon          27   36   -6      -1.24    44.12    -6.39    62.68     6.16    -5.22     0.01     0.24     7.13     1.75P    0.07R    0.00  
Newport_County   25   36   -7       4.75    74.81    -1.89    61.34     6.51   -12.35     0.01     0.27     5.70     1.04P    0.24R    0.03  
Grimsby          26   34   -3       2.89    66.02     3.39    58.55     6.18    -7.04     0.00     0.03     2.17     0.37P    0.51R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     26   33   -5       0.07    51.20    -0.70    56.49     6.17   -11.26     0.00     0.02     0.99     0.16P    1.25R    0.21  
Crewe            27   32   -7      -1.15    44.64    -1.08    56.34     6.06    -9.56     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.20P    1.33R    0.20  
Northampton      26   30   -3      -6.47    19.96    -4.15    58.85     6.46    -0.97     0.00     0.05     2.89     0.69P    0.67R    0.09  
Cheltenham       26   29   -7      -2.83    35.68    -0.84    54.77     6.30    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.10P    2.69R    0.48  
Port_Vale        26   29   -7      -3.43    32.50    -2.58    54.47     6.21    -9.78     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.09P    2.75R    0.51  
Morecambe        27   27  -16      -2.26    38.89    -4.24    47.50     5.87   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   20.80R    6.01  
Cambridge_Utd    27   26  -23      -4.10    29.24   -12.62    47.68     5.91   -29.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.25R    6.53  
Yeovil           25   24   -5      -6.26    19.45     0.90    49.65     6.33    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   12.14R    3.13  
Macclesfield     27   21  -21      -3.37    32.74    -1.74    37.75     5.53   -35.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.40R   61.52  
Notts_County     27   21  -27      -9.65     9.28   -16.18    42.94     6.03   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.84R   21.22  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 January 2019, Bromley 3 2 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       6.17    77.88    12.76    87.34     5.63    39.58    51.85    96.81    65.83P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.18    83.61    14.09    83.45     5.96    32.83    21.84    87.49    37.99P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            28   53  +18       8.59    86.68     9.29    81.24     5.78    23.39    11.05    78.10    28.54P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   51  +18       9.93    89.73    13.87    77.25     5.94    20.55     3.83    53.64    13.42P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       0.91    54.12     8.06    79.38     5.66    31.15     7.44    70.95    26.63P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.51    82.90     2.35    75.60     5.93    10.11     2.04    39.85     9.71P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.39    69.71    10.83    72.59     6.05    18.48     0.94    25.12     6.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          28   46   +9       3.54    67.28     2.76    72.26     5.95    11.44     0.61    22.31     5.42P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.25    48.97     5.12    69.90     5.81    15.87     0.21    13.07     3.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.43    79.13    -0.54    65.02     5.63    -7.01     0.01     1.95     0.30P    0.12R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.15    56.31     0.40    60.64     5.65    -4.08     0.00     0.36     0.05P    1.06R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.86    35.89    -3.18    61.51     5.68    -0.32     0.00     0.54     0.12P    0.77R    0.00  
Bromley            28   36   -3      -2.66    37.51    -3.36    60.66     6.02    -3.19     0.00     0.51     0.09P    1.55R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.87    41.19    -4.60    56.86     5.58   -10.33     0.00     0.07     0.01P    4.51R    0.00  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.80    30.68    -8.98    67.81     6.67     3.89     0.17     8.91     2.59P    0.14R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.68    24.25    -5.56    59.65     5.82    -2.02     0.00     0.29     0.07P    2.10R    0.00  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.14    50.19     1.67    53.82     5.64    -9.84     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.41R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.33    21.11   -12.69    54.17     5.77   -16.15     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.76R    0.13  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -3.12    35.76     2.00    46.50     5.65   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.99R    2.03  
Maidenhead         28   28  -22      -2.10    39.91    -9.03    46.25     5.62   -32.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.52R    2.78  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.77    18.75   -14.59    49.07     5.86   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.95R    1.33  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.31     4.34   -11.73    52.15     6.02    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.00P   21.43R    0.34  
Maidstone_United   28   25  -18      -4.13    29.63    -4.55    44.08     5.63   -26.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.19R    5.79  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.81    21.87    -4.39    32.65     5.17   -43.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.51R   87.53