Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 6 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 January 2019, Man_City 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   54  +39       9.32    95.13    11.70    92.73     4.90    65.33    59.03    92.93    99.22    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   50  +39       1.50    59.25     2.15    90.49     4.68    70.53    37.30    87.26    98.37    99.77   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   48  +25       4.69    77.48     0.96    82.71     5.26    43.90     3.46    17.32    75.29    93.27   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   44  +22       3.09    68.21     3.30    76.12     5.36    35.70     0.19     2.04    18.71    63.94    99.71     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          21   41  +15       2.97    67.37    -0.48    72.18     5.60    27.58     0.02     0.37     6.27    29.30    98.09     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   38  +11      -1.39    40.55    -5.55    69.24     5.49    23.45     0.01     0.09     2.14    13.73    95.55     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   31   +2       1.80    61.05     2.20    54.05     5.55     0.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.74     0.00     0.00  
Watford          21   29   -1       3.79    72.93     5.83    48.73     5.40    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.11R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   29   -2       4.26    75.08     4.87    49.73     5.54    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.09R    0.00  
West_Ham         21   28   -3       1.74    61.23     2.66    48.04     5.46   -10.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.19R    0.00  
Everton          21   27   +0      -2.07    37.62     0.99    49.81     5.66    -1.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.08R    0.00  
Bournemouth      21   27   -9       2.60    66.50     0.65    46.90     5.47   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.51R    0.00  
Brighton         21   26   -5       2.27    64.89     3.39    45.13     5.29   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.81R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   21   22   -7      -2.69    34.02     0.00    42.83     5.49   -11.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.59R    0.03  
Newcastle        21   18  -14      -5.61    18.23    -5.69    37.23     5.31   -20.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.17R    0.64  
Burnley          21   18  -21      -4.29    24.85    -9.71    34.89     5.21   -31.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.48R    1.54  
Cardiff          21   18  -22      -0.21    50.51    -2.91    33.53     5.20   -36.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.57R    3.35  
Southampton      21   16  -17      -6.11    15.67    -4.89    36.29     5.49   -22.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.60R    1.05  
Fulham           21   14  -28      -4.18    24.38    -5.92    27.89     5.13   -45.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.05R   19.32  
Huddersfield     21   10  -24      -6.71    10.58    -3.55    21.98     4.66   -43.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.74R   74.06  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Aston_Villa 2 2 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   51  +16      10.76    92.22     9.29    81.83     6.45    21.09    25.72    46.45    90.48    55.44P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   49  +14       9.23    88.32     7.92    80.25     6.45    19.70    18.65    36.59    85.75    46.80P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   47  +17       5.52    76.28     8.33    78.80     6.31    23.62    13.51    29.41    81.98    42.03P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   46  +20      -1.30    42.58     1.97    81.91     6.46    33.18    29.60    51.27    91.51    64.87P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   43  +10       0.49    52.69     0.12    75.59     6.29    17.38     5.28    14.19    65.46    29.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   43   +6       2.30    61.85    -1.45    75.36     6.36    13.39     4.63    12.67    62.65    25.32P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   39  +10       2.95    65.61     9.51    67.03     6.42    10.78     0.29     1.20    17.69     4.45P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   39  +10       5.63    77.73    13.18    64.67     6.29     7.46     0.13     0.55     9.78     2.25P    0.04R    0.00  
QPR             26   39   -1       5.75    77.94     2.94    63.82     6.25    -5.10     0.06     0.28     6.48     1.22P    0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   38   +9      -4.27    28.82    -1.04    70.75     6.53    17.04     1.46     4.62    37.16    13.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   +4       0.82    54.68     1.80    66.04     6.40     4.79     0.22     0.85    13.16     3.49P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea         26   36   +4      -4.39    28.71    -3.04    66.79     6.53     8.97     0.30     1.15    16.70     5.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            26   36   +3      -1.32    43.67     0.72    64.16     6.37     3.81     0.07     0.36     8.45     2.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Stoke           26   35   -1      -3.53    32.21    -5.15    63.90     6.47     1.31     0.06     0.34     7.57     2.12P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   34   -8       1.48    58.24    -2.86    60.19     6.51   -10.05     0.01     0.05     2.37     0.48P    0.63R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed       26   32  -10      -0.97    45.56    -5.67    58.41     6.40   -11.77     0.00     0.01     1.22     0.22P    1.21R    0.04  
Preston         26   29   -5      -6.35    20.29    -4.24    56.04     6.44    -5.73     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.14P    2.30R    0.06  
Brentford       26   28   +0      -9.04    11.70    -1.79    56.84     6.47     2.05     0.00     0.01     0.80     0.23P    1.90R    0.08  
Millwall        26   28   -8      -5.09    25.19    -3.95    52.53     6.26   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    6.73R    0.31  
Wigan           26   26  -15      -5.83    22.35    -9.42    51.74     6.40   -17.33     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   10.00R    0.75  
Rotherham       26   25  -16      -0.77    47.17    -0.19    44.02     6.03   -29.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   48.98R    7.97  
Bolton          26   22  -21      -1.63    41.66    -3.21    39.70     5.61   -35.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.29R   24.00  
Reading         26   20  -13      -8.72    11.29    -1.97    42.04     6.14   -21.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.21R   12.85  
Ipswich         26   15  -25     -11.97     3.99   -11.79    35.77     5.96   -35.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.45R   53.90  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Blackpool 0 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           26   57  +22      14.50    97.43    11.89    89.17     6.45    29.01    26.83    53.67    98.76    64.13P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   52  +25       7.12    81.88    11.16    86.78     6.48    36.14    17.92    41.35    97.29    56.78P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           24   50  +22       5.44    76.84     4.05    91.07     6.81    38.76    42.38    67.06    99.06    77.48P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             25   46  +18       2.00    60.04     3.52    84.52     6.59    32.47    10.41    27.64    94.69    49.76P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             26   46  +12       4.96    74.57     4.10    77.79     6.44    18.41     1.25     4.87    72.24    19.80P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            26   45  +15       4.99    74.42     8.54    75.21     6.41    19.00     0.58     2.54    57.75    13.72P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         26   44  +12       3.15    65.73     4.32    75.61     6.48    18.25     0.64     2.82    60.11    14.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             26   38   -1       5.73    78.10     3.29    62.82     6.27    -4.67     0.00     0.00     3.55     0.50P    1.48R    0.05  
Southend             26   35   +1      -1.28    43.59     0.16    62.21     6.40     0.63     0.00     0.01     3.47     0.62P    1.85R    0.07  
Blackpool            25   35   +1       0.38    52.40     0.23    63.06     6.42     0.13     0.00     0.02     4.36     0.75P    1.47R    0.05  
Fleetwood_Town       26   34   +5      -2.82    35.71     3.38    63.19     6.42     7.63     0.00     0.01     4.88     1.00P    1.30R    0.06  
Accrington_Stanley   25   34   -8       5.07    75.61    -0.15    57.95     6.43   -15.42     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.08P    9.42R    0.70  
Burton_Albion        25   32   -3      -1.97    40.20    -2.64    58.67     6.61    -6.14     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.27P    7.09R    0.48  
Wycombe              26   32   -4       1.36    57.94     4.06    55.09     6.34   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P   17.59R    1.81  
Walsall              26   32  -13       2.04    61.62    -4.20    55.78     6.25   -18.54     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   15.95R    1.51  
Shrewsbury           26   30   -3      -5.73    22.15    -3.31    57.99     6.32    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.17P    7.60R    0.51  
Rochdale             26   30  -19       0.47    53.52    -8.88    52.84     6.23   -26.93     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P   30.30R    4.44  
Gillingham           26   28   -7      -4.10    29.66    -1.17    53.51     6.35   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   23.94R    3.42  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27   -4      -6.49    19.24    -0.74    51.99     6.29    -7.46     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   30.61R    4.60  
Bradford             26   27   -9      -6.10    20.77    -4.94    52.44     6.29   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   29.47R    4.40  
Scunthorpe           26   27  -19      -6.00    21.89   -14.36    52.93     6.41   -21.75     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   29.50R    4.69  
Oxford_Utd           26   26  -10      -6.75    18.57    -5.10    50.60     6.38   -14.47     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   40.55R    7.61  
Plymouth             26   24  -16      -6.17    20.13    -7.14    46.29     6.18   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   68.94R   23.17  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   22  -17      -5.86    20.42    -6.05    43.36     5.99   -25.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.94R   42.43  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Bury 3 1 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     25   51  +21       8.95    88.99     9.37    85.36     6.54    29.27    32.90    76.07    97.94    81.70P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   47  +22       0.77    53.46     4.20    85.28     6.51    35.94    35.19    77.56    98.14    84.58P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        24   45  +19       4.42    73.04     7.95    82.76     6.60    30.15    20.32    63.48    95.41    73.17P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             26   43  +19      -2.12    38.88     4.45    77.67     6.44    30.04     6.13    32.93    84.53    48.88P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     25   43  +14       7.88    85.58    13.00    71.73     6.55    13.95     1.00     8.71    51.71    15.99P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   43  +10       1.72    58.85     1.58    74.26     6.39    15.64     1.82    14.68    66.93    27.81P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         26   42  +12       0.75    53.97     3.76    72.84     6.45    17.18     1.27    10.97    59.69    22.66P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   42   +9       2.10    61.20     2.70    71.97     6.34    12.87     0.80     8.10    53.23    18.79P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   39   +6       3.16    66.39     5.86    65.04     6.40     3.93     0.07     0.95    15.82     3.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           26   38   +7      -4.05    30.25    -2.66    70.07     6.47    13.87     0.44     5.19    42.57    15.48P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        26   38   -1       2.71    64.53    -0.46    65.12     6.30    -1.46     0.03     0.81    14.32     3.25P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   25   36   -7       4.70    74.56    -1.99    61.44     6.47   -12.19     0.01     0.26     5.78     1.10P    0.20R    0.04  
Grimsby          26   34   -3       2.71    64.95     3.13    58.69     6.15    -6.85     0.00     0.04     2.12     0.35P    0.49R    0.07  
Swindon          26   33   -7      -2.28    38.66    -6.60    61.18     6.32    -6.04     0.00     0.13     5.17     1.11P    0.24R    0.05  
Crewe            26   31   -7      -0.68    47.18    -1.03    56.52     6.26    -9.71     0.00     0.01     1.08     0.20P    1.34R    0.24  
Northampton      26   30   -3      -6.41    20.45    -4.09    58.82     6.47    -1.06     0.00     0.05     2.96     0.73P    0.60R    0.11  
Crawley_Town     25   30   -6      -1.10    44.73    -1.03    54.79     6.36   -12.44     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.13P    2.54R    0.57  
Cheltenham       25   29   -6      -1.84    40.52    -0.42    56.18     6.50    -8.66     0.00     0.03     1.24     0.25P    1.76R    0.36  
Port_Vale        26   29   -7      -3.33    33.19    -2.46    54.38     6.22    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.09P    2.75R    0.59  
Morecambe        26   26  -16      -1.97    40.09    -4.52    47.94     6.09   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.66R    6.01  
Yeovil           24   24   -4      -5.39    22.52     1.19    50.83     6.53    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    9.09R    2.66  
Cambridge_Utd    26   23  -25      -5.10    24.27   -13.60    45.55     6.08   -32.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.84R   13.11  
Macclesfield     26   21  -20      -2.58    36.68    -1.71    39.02     5.76   -34.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.76R   50.75  
Notts_County     26   20  -27      -9.48     9.41   -16.63    42.58     6.23   -34.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.70R   25.45  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 0 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      28   57  +32       6.77    80.96    14.60    89.83     5.78    44.33    64.26    98.42    75.56P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            27   53  +19       9.94    90.75    10.24    83.23     5.99    25.28    14.16    85.06    32.98P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       28   52  +22       7.78    82.80    12.94    80.56     6.19    27.89     8.05    73.24    22.88P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          28   50  +23       2.29    61.35     8.99    81.13     5.82    32.73     8.84    78.57    29.93P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     27   48  +15       9.36    88.85    12.28    75.50     6.08    17.43     1.43    39.63     8.65P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     28   47  +16       5.17    73.29    10.78    74.09     6.19    19.76     1.06    33.02     7.57P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          27   46  +10       4.90    74.08     3.70    74.73     6.14    14.13     1.04    34.92     8.84P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      27   46   +6       6.33    79.74     1.95    74.08     6.11     9.31     0.90    29.51     6.81P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   43  +12       0.20    51.15     5.17    70.12     5.98    15.72     0.14    13.60     3.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh          28   43   -2       6.56    79.97     0.54    66.63     5.83    -3.49     0.04     3.79     0.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Barrow             28   39   +0       1.94    60.47     1.54    62.31     5.84    -1.61     0.00     0.75     0.12P    0.34R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       28   37   -1      -2.24    38.83    -2.98    61.55     5.83    -0.67     0.00     0.63     0.15P    0.49R    0.00  
Hartlepool         28   36   -6      -0.61    47.25    -3.84    58.80     5.81    -8.43     0.00     0.19     0.04P    1.69R    0.00  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.85    30.41    -9.01    67.72     6.67     3.80     0.07     8.11     2.34P    0.11R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          28   34   -4      -5.06    25.96    -5.39    60.11     5.98    -1.77     0.00     0.32     0.09P    1.29R    0.00  
Bromley            27   33   -4      -4.08    29.82    -4.10    58.47     6.16    -4.99     0.00     0.22     0.04P    2.40R    0.01  
Halifax            27   32   -5       0.37    52.95     1.86    55.02     5.86    -8.74     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.14R    0.03  
Dover_Athletic     28   28  -17      -8.08    14.84   -13.81    52.09     5.89   -17.73     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.36R    0.21  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.75    18.64   -14.66    49.02     5.79   -24.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.16R    0.94  
Havant_&_Wville    28   26  -13      -4.08    30.83     1.15    44.34     5.85   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.75R    3.64  
Chesterfield       27   25  -10     -12.80     4.63   -11.61    52.36     6.21    -7.83     0.00     0.00     0.00P   16.07R    0.27  
Maidenhead         27   25  -23      -3.79    31.30   -10.05    43.70     5.75   -34.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.11R    5.27  
Maidstone_United   27   22  -19      -5.85    21.16    -5.80    41.99     5.74   -28.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.90R    8.73  
Braintree_Town     28   18  -28      -5.82    21.31    -4.49    32.32     5.32   -44.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.16R   80.89