Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 5 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 January 2019, Man_City 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   54  +39       9.39    95.38    11.83    92.72     4.91    65.28    58.72    92.74    99.27    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   50  +39       1.44    58.68     2.06    90.54     4.66    70.64    37.54    87.63    98.29    99.75   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   48  +25       4.67    77.39     0.92    82.73     5.22    43.94     3.50    17.06    75.59    93.45    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   44  +22       3.08    68.22     3.28    76.11     5.37    35.67     0.22     2.11    18.48    63.66    99.71     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          21   41  +15       2.94    67.18    -0.53    72.16     5.55    27.54     0.02     0.38     6.15    28.81    98.21     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   38  +11      -1.54    39.74    -5.85    69.38     5.52    23.67     0.00     0.08     2.22    14.37    95.57     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   31   +2       1.73    60.76     2.11    54.09     5.54     0.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.56     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          21   29   -1       3.89    73.27     6.03    48.69     5.41    -8.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.13R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   29   -2       4.37    75.73     5.03    49.68     5.56    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.09R    0.00  
West_Ham         21   28   -3       1.73    60.98     2.68    48.05     5.48   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.22R    0.00  
Everton          21   27   +0      -2.10    37.29     0.90    49.80     5.66    -1.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.10R    0.00  
Bournemouth      21   27   -9       2.60    66.61     0.68    46.86     5.50   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.46R    0.00  
Brighton         21   26   -5       2.25    64.84     3.35    45.15     5.29   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.73R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   21   22   -7      -2.59    34.79     0.13    42.78     5.46   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.53R    0.04  
Newcastle        21   18  -14      -5.55    18.40    -5.58    37.15     5.34   -20.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.75R    0.63  
Burnley          21   18  -21      -4.25    24.83    -9.69    34.85     5.21   -32.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.49R    1.47  
Cardiff          21   18  -22      -0.29    49.72    -3.07    33.61     5.23   -35.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.77R    3.35  
Southampton      21   16  -17      -6.11    15.74    -4.89    36.30     5.49   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.00R    1.11  
Fulham           21   14  -28      -4.10    24.98    -5.69    27.87     5.12   -45.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.91R   19.21  
Huddersfield     21   10  -24      -6.77    10.33    -3.70    22.00     4.61   -43.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.83R   74.19  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Aston_Villa 2 2 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   51  +16      10.91    92.44     9.46    81.83     6.48    21.06    26.05    46.62    90.26    55.74P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   49  +14       9.24    88.15     7.94    80.29     6.43    19.71    18.69    37.20    85.93    47.31P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   47  +17       5.73    77.16     8.67    78.59     6.34    23.28    12.95    28.65    80.86    40.94P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   46  +20      -1.32    42.52     1.90    81.91     6.50    33.20    29.75    51.34    91.44    64.61P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   43  +10       0.48    52.55     0.14    75.57     6.20    17.36     5.17    13.99    65.52    29.52P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   43   +6       2.44    62.55    -1.22    75.28     6.33    13.27     4.62    12.48    62.36    25.22P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   39  +10       2.81    64.66     9.32    67.11     6.41    10.91     0.34     1.30    18.05     4.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   39  +10       5.64    77.71    13.23    64.66     6.31     7.42     0.12     0.51     9.60     2.16P    0.04R    0.00  
QPR             26   39   -1       5.64    77.44     2.73    63.96     6.29    -4.91     0.10     0.33     6.97     1.41P    0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   38   +9      -4.30    28.61    -1.09    70.74     6.49    17.04     1.48     4.66    37.09    13.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   +4       0.93    55.17     1.88    66.08     6.34     4.85     0.22     0.84    13.23     3.52P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea         26   36   +4      -4.34    28.90    -2.98    66.74     6.48     8.86     0.31     1.18    16.79     5.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            26   36   +3      -1.23    43.83     0.86    64.13     6.40     3.77     0.10     0.41     8.36     2.08P    0.06R    0.00  
Stoke           26   35   -1      -3.69    31.72    -5.40    64.08     6.53     1.60     0.09     0.40     8.29     2.46P    0.08R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   34   -8       1.51    58.43    -2.76    60.10     6.50   -10.22     0.01     0.05     2.41     0.48P    0.65R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed       26   32  -10      -0.97    45.48    -5.69    58.39     6.42   -11.78     0.01     0.03     1.14     0.23P    1.17R    0.02  
Preston         26   29   -5      -6.44    19.90    -4.34    56.04     6.41    -5.75     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.12P    2.31R    0.08  
Brentford       26   28   +0      -9.24    11.02    -2.06    57.00     6.46     2.29     0.00     0.01     0.92     0.23P    1.79R    0.08  
Millwall        26   28   -8      -5.20    24.48    -4.14    52.62     6.26   -12.28     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.04P    6.39R    0.36  
Wigan           26   26  -15      -5.73    22.65    -9.26    51.56     6.37   -17.58     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   10.15R    0.77  
Rotherham       26   25  -16      -0.81    46.99    -0.23    43.93     5.96   -29.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.51R    7.98  
Bolton          26   22  -21      -1.66    41.82    -3.27    39.73     5.65   -35.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.29R   24.01  
Reading         26   20  -13      -8.77    10.94    -2.04    42.06     6.08   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.04R   12.85  
Ipswich         26   15  -25     -11.88     4.15   -11.64    35.76     5.95   -35.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.42R   53.84  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Blackpool 0 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           26   57  +22      14.43    97.31    11.84    89.22     6.41    29.09    27.00    54.14    98.81    64.41P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   52  +25       7.24    82.46    11.31    86.63     6.46    35.90    17.49    40.57    97.30    56.09P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           24   50  +22       5.46    76.79     4.10    91.07     6.79    38.78    42.68    67.52    99.05    77.80P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             25   46  +18       2.12    60.70     3.72    84.36     6.60    32.18    10.38    27.22    94.70    49.24P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             26   46  +12       5.23    75.48     4.50    77.58     6.48    18.12     1.22     4.84    70.94    19.50P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            26   45  +15       4.91    73.87     8.43    75.30     6.45    19.17     0.56     2.63    58.44    13.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         26   44  +12       3.07    65.65     4.16    75.71     6.50    18.43     0.67     3.04    60.71    15.54P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             26   38   -1       5.86    78.24     3.42    62.68     6.28    -4.82     0.00     0.00     3.44     0.54P    1.57R    0.06  
Southend             26   35   +1      -1.25    43.71     0.14    62.18     6.37     0.64     0.00     0.01     3.41     0.63P    1.88R    0.07  
Blackpool            25   35   +1       0.47    52.93     0.35    63.02     6.44     0.05     0.00     0.01     4.43     0.84P    1.52R    0.05  
Fleetwood_Town       26   34   +5      -2.76    35.95     3.50    63.11     6.42     7.52     0.00     0.01     4.83     0.93P    1.48R    0.07  
Accrington_Stanley   25   34   -8       5.07    75.94    -0.15    57.98     6.41   -15.42     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.12P    9.35R    0.67  
Burton_Albion        25   32   -3      -2.12    39.42    -2.83    58.76     6.59    -6.02     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.21P    7.04R    0.48  
Wycombe              26   32   -4       1.35    57.86     4.06    55.12     6.37   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P   17.51R    1.82  
Walsall              26   32  -13       2.06    61.88    -4.16    55.86     6.25   -18.42     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   15.53R    1.52  
Shrewsbury           26   30   -3      -5.79    22.22    -3.33    58.02     6.36    -1.96     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.14P    7.67R    0.56  
Rochdale             26   30  -19       0.44    53.32    -8.90    52.85     6.27   -26.92     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   30.87R    4.44  
Gillingham           26   28   -7      -4.12    29.66    -1.22    53.54     6.33   -10.24     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P   23.91R    3.19  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27   -4      -6.56    19.10    -0.88    52.09     6.34    -7.31     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   30.29R    4.63  
Bradford             26   27   -9      -6.17    20.64    -5.00    52.46     6.34   -12.02     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   29.51R    4.41  
Scunthorpe           26   27  -19      -6.15    21.17   -14.59    52.98     6.40   -21.61     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   29.36R    4.66  
Oxford_Utd           26   26  -10      -6.83    18.39    -5.20    50.65     6.34   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   40.58R    7.37  
Plymouth             26   24  -16      -6.21    20.22    -7.24    46.34     6.24   -24.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   68.53R   23.16  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   22  -17      -5.82    20.68    -6.02    43.32     5.97   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.39R   42.85  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Bury 3 1 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     25   51  +21       8.84    88.67     9.23    85.43     6.58    29.39    33.81    76.15    98.00    81.76P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   47  +22       0.81    53.69     4.26    85.21     6.50    35.85    34.68    77.40    98.05    84.35P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        24   45  +19       4.68    74.38     8.33    82.60     6.60    29.91    19.75    62.54    95.29    72.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             26   43  +19      -2.13    38.71     4.40    77.73     6.46    30.12     6.21    33.59    84.87    49.63P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     25   43  +14       7.91    86.00    13.03    71.79     6.52    14.04     0.97     8.80    52.05    16.09P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   43  +10       1.67    58.83     1.56    74.25     6.40    15.65     1.97    15.02    66.90    27.95P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         26   42  +12       0.69    53.78     3.64    72.87     6.42    17.23     1.33    11.15    59.75    23.16P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   42   +9       2.13    61.24     2.77    71.92     6.34    12.74     0.81     8.08    52.44    18.25P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   39   +6       3.11    66.03     5.77    64.98     6.45     3.83     0.04     1.01    15.98     3.82P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           26   38   +7      -3.87    30.59    -2.42    69.96     6.44    13.70     0.39     4.90    41.94    15.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        26   38   -1       2.67    64.10    -0.47    65.18     6.33    -1.35     0.04     0.83    14.94     3.38P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   25   36   -7       4.77    75.02    -1.87    61.37     6.46   -12.25     0.01     0.24     5.66     1.04P    0.20R    0.02  
Grimsby          26   34   -3       2.80    65.65     3.26    58.63     6.22    -6.90     0.00     0.05     2.24     0.38P    0.51R    0.09  
Swindon          26   33   -7      -2.32    38.09    -6.69    61.27     6.28    -5.95     0.00     0.14     5.24     1.19P    0.18R    0.02  
Crewe            26   31   -7      -0.73    46.63    -1.12    56.65     6.27    -9.54     0.00     0.02     1.12     0.22P    1.33R    0.26  
Northampton      26   30   -3      -6.63    19.52    -4.38    58.89     6.48    -0.88     0.00     0.05     3.06     0.74P    0.66R    0.09  
Crawley_Town     25   30   -6      -1.18    44.20    -1.10    54.81     6.34   -12.43     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.12P    2.47R    0.51  
Cheltenham       25   29   -6      -2.18    38.92    -0.91    56.42     6.54    -8.29     0.00     0.01     1.33     0.26P    1.68R    0.34  
Port_Vale        26   29   -7      -3.28    33.23    -2.39    54.37     6.18    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.08P    2.68R    0.58  
Morecambe        26   26  -16      -1.81    40.78    -4.26    47.85     6.06   -24.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.84R    6.21  
Yeovil           24   24   -4      -5.43    22.57     1.13    50.95     6.57    -8.92     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    8.75R    2.53  
Cambridge_Utd    26   23  -25      -5.08    24.35   -13.53    45.47     6.10   -32.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.25R   13.46  
Macclesfield     26   21  -20      -2.46    37.47    -1.48    38.87     5.76   -34.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.16R   51.23  
Notts_County     26   20  -27      -9.49     9.28   -16.75    42.60     6.23   -34.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.25R   24.65  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 0 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      28   57  +32       6.77    81.15    14.70    89.79     5.81    44.21    63.94    98.44    75.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            27   53  +19      10.04    91.01    10.33    83.16     5.94    25.19    13.80    84.94    32.61P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       28   52  +22       7.66    82.36    12.74    80.66     6.20    28.07     8.16    73.76    23.24P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          28   50  +23       2.11    60.64     8.74    81.24     5.84    32.90     9.35    79.17    30.93P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     27   48  +15       9.31    88.95    12.27    75.53     6.12    17.45     1.45    40.24     8.89P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     28   47  +16       5.41    74.09    11.17    73.99     6.21    19.59     1.01    32.49     7.36P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          27   46  +10       4.93    74.41     3.76    74.74     6.15    14.12     1.15    34.92     8.71P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      27   46   +6       6.43    79.68     2.09    73.98     6.10     9.19     0.85    28.92     6.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   43  +12       0.26    51.49     5.27    70.06     5.94    15.64     0.15    13.01     3.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh          28   43   -2       6.55    80.03     0.53    66.65     5.80    -3.42     0.03     3.70     0.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Barrow             28   39   +0       1.89    60.36     1.45    62.35     5.87    -1.57     0.00     0.82     0.18P    0.34R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       28   37   -1      -2.33    38.47    -3.11    61.58     5.86    -0.62     0.00     0.63     0.14P    0.52R    0.00  
Hartlepool         28   36   -6      -0.61    47.47    -3.81    58.85     5.82    -8.38     0.00     0.19     0.03P    1.65R    0.00  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.84    30.21    -9.02    67.76     6.66     3.87     0.10     8.16     2.36P    0.08R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          28   34   -4      -5.05    26.12    -5.37    60.13     5.95    -1.83     0.00     0.34     0.07P    1.20R    0.00  
Bromley            27   33   -4      -4.25    29.49    -4.37    58.54     6.17    -4.89     0.00     0.24     0.06P    2.43R    0.01  
Halifax            27   32   -5       0.31    52.58     1.81    54.97     5.87    -8.81     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.33R    0.04  
Dover_Athletic     28   28  -17      -8.05    14.86   -13.76    52.03     5.91   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.94R    0.25  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.86    18.12   -14.76    49.02     5.83   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.40R    0.94  
Havant_&_Wville    28   26  -13      -4.15    30.59     1.06    44.32     5.83   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.38R    3.63  
Chesterfield       27   25  -10     -12.78     4.73   -11.59    52.41     6.21    -7.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.53R    0.26  
Maidenhead         27   25  -23      -3.78    31.24   -10.14    43.74     5.73   -34.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.95R    5.06  
Maidstone_United   27   22  -19      -5.78    21.32    -5.65    41.94     5.76   -28.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.97R    8.92  
Braintree_Town     28   18  -28      -5.64    22.02    -4.33    32.30     5.30   -44.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.23R   80.89