Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 4 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 January 2019, Man_City 2 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   54  +39       9.48    95.47    12.08    92.66     4.93    65.14    58.76    92.55    99.13    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   50  +39       1.51    59.27     2.23    90.48     4.67    70.42    37.44    87.41    98.31    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   48  +25       4.70    77.56     0.96    82.74     5.25    43.91     3.56    17.34    75.02    93.16    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   44  +22       3.06    68.23     3.25    76.18     5.37    35.76     0.22     2.20    18.96    63.73    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          21   41  +15       2.80    66.68    -0.84    72.25     5.56    27.71     0.02     0.40     6.34    29.39    98.17     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   38  +11      -1.45    40.04    -5.66    69.33     5.51    23.57     0.00     0.10     2.24    13.95    95.61     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   31   +2       1.67    60.52     1.97    54.13     5.56     0.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.73     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          21   29   -1       3.79    72.90     5.84    48.69     5.36    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.12R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   29   -2       4.26    75.29     4.90    49.73     5.55    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.06R    0.00  
West_Ham         21   28   -3       1.71    60.83     2.57    48.06     5.45   -10.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.19R    0.00  
Everton          21   27   +0      -2.08    37.34     0.97    49.77     5.67    -1.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.12R    0.00  
Bournemouth      21   27   -9       2.69    67.05     0.77    46.90     5.50   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.47R    0.00  
Brighton         21   26   -5       2.35    65.27     3.47    45.13     5.29   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.77R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   21   22   -7      -2.72    33.63    -0.02    42.91     5.45   -11.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.41R    0.03  
Newcastle        21   18  -14      -5.56    18.23    -5.60    37.18     5.33   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.49R    0.58  
Burnley          21   18  -21      -4.28    24.58    -9.76    34.88     5.21   -31.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.24R    1.44  
Cardiff          21   18  -22      -0.23    50.00    -3.00    33.54     5.17   -36.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.12R    3.22  
Southampton      21   16  -17      -6.15    15.50    -4.95    36.30     5.50   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.63R    1.04  
Fulham           21   14  -28      -4.08    25.00    -5.66    27.80     5.12   -45.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.40R   19.43  
Huddersfield     21   10  -24      -6.66    10.65    -3.52    21.91     4.60   -43.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.97R   74.25  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Aston_Villa 2 2 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   51  +16      10.77    92.54     9.26    81.94     6.44    21.24    26.55    47.56    90.78    56.67P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   49  +14       9.37    88.91     8.14    80.11     6.45    19.52    17.89    35.90    85.53    46.23P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   47  +17       5.75    77.14     8.65    78.61     6.36    23.30    13.36    28.79    81.06    41.26P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   46  +20      -1.11    43.62     2.20    81.75     6.50    32.89    29.05    50.23    91.29    63.50P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   43  +10       0.17    50.88    -0.27    75.76     6.25    17.61     5.62    14.85    66.24    30.50P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   43   +6       2.34    61.92    -1.40    75.42     6.35    13.45     4.95    13.09    63.29    25.72P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   39  +10       2.93    65.20     9.47    67.01     6.39    10.74     0.33     1.20    17.51     4.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   39  +10       5.69    78.09    13.34    64.56     6.28     7.27     0.11     0.52     9.38     2.01P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             26   39   -1       5.59    77.54     2.69    64.04     6.28    -4.81     0.08     0.38     7.09     1.52P    0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   38   +9      -4.28    28.51    -1.09    70.78     6.48    17.09     1.37     4.66    37.37    13.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   +4       0.87    54.63     1.82    65.98     6.36     4.79     0.21     0.79    12.74     3.37P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea         26   36   +4      -4.43    28.27    -3.07    66.81     6.46     8.97     0.32     1.21    16.48     5.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Hull            26   36   +3      -1.27    43.71     0.78    64.18     6.38     3.83     0.07     0.34     8.39     2.11P    0.08R    0.00  
Stoke           26   35   -1      -3.52    32.63    -5.14    63.97     6.51     1.42     0.08     0.36     7.87     2.23P    0.08R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   34   -8       1.65    59.29    -2.56    60.04     6.50   -10.30     0.01     0.07     2.31     0.48P    0.66R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       26   32  -10      -0.96    45.56    -5.66    58.40     6.39   -11.79     0.01     0.03     1.17     0.23P    1.20R    0.04  
Preston         26   29   -5      -6.38    19.94    -4.26    56.06     6.40    -5.72     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.12P    2.31R    0.07  
Brentford       26   28   +0      -9.26    10.78    -2.10    56.95     6.42     2.22     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.20P    1.78R    0.06  
Millwall        26   28   -8      -5.11    25.18    -3.94    52.59     6.23   -12.40     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    6.58R    0.27  
Wigan           26   26  -15      -5.78    22.05    -9.34    51.65     6.33   -17.49     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    9.96R    0.76  
Rotherham       26   25  -16      -0.80    47.00    -0.22    43.98     5.99   -29.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.75R    8.04  
Bolton          26   22  -21      -1.58    42.00    -3.20    39.73     5.61   -35.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.34R   24.15  
Reading         26   20  -13      -8.91    10.82    -2.27    42.13     6.13   -21.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.94R   12.74  
Ipswich         26   15  -25     -11.98     3.92   -11.82    35.80     6.01   -35.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.20R   53.85  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Blackpool 0 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           26   57  +22      14.51    97.46    11.97    89.15     6.43    28.96    26.40    53.55    98.72    63.80P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   52  +25       7.15    82.01    11.19    86.75     6.48    36.05    17.75    41.12    97.31    56.85P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           24   50  +22       5.44    77.16     4.02    91.18     6.80    38.91    43.20    67.77    99.19    78.11P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             25   46  +18       2.18    61.11     3.75    84.41     6.57    32.34    10.15    26.99    94.62    49.09P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             26   46  +12       5.04    74.64     4.24    77.73     6.49    18.34     1.30     5.02    71.90    19.65P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            26   45  +15       4.86    73.37     8.37    75.30     6.44    19.17     0.58     2.68    58.28    13.80P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         26   44  +12       3.14    65.59     4.31    75.61     6.50    18.28     0.61     2.81    59.90    15.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             26   38   -1       5.84    78.22     3.40    62.79     6.28    -4.72     0.00     0.01     3.39     0.50P    1.46R    0.05  
Southend             26   35   +1      -1.37    43.24     0.03    62.23     6.39     0.68     0.00     0.01     3.50     0.69P    1.92R    0.07  
Blackpool            25   35   +1       0.44    53.02     0.33    62.95     6.48    -0.04     0.00     0.01     4.52     0.81P    1.53R    0.05  
Fleetwood_Town       26   34   +5      -2.76    36.03     3.48    63.13     6.47     7.56     0.00     0.02     4.87     0.98P    1.47R    0.04  
Accrington_Stanley   25   34   -8       5.30    76.58     0.21    57.83     6.44   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.10P    9.55R    0.78  
Burton_Albion        25   32   -3      -2.12    39.39    -2.87    58.77     6.59    -6.01     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.25P    6.97R    0.47  
Wycombe              26   32   -4       1.34    57.98     4.08    55.12     6.35   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P   17.43R    1.92  
Walsall              26   32  -13       1.83    60.48    -4.46    55.88     6.26   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P   15.26R    1.48  
Shrewsbury           26   30   -3      -5.87    21.66    -3.49    58.04     6.34    -1.89     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.18P    7.49R    0.55  
Rochdale             26   30  -19       0.38    52.92    -8.99    52.85     6.23   -26.90     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   30.59R    4.56  
Gillingham           26   28   -7      -4.16    29.58    -1.25    53.52     6.30   -10.29     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   23.97R    3.12  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27   -4      -6.35    20.02    -0.58    52.01     6.26    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   30.39R    4.60  
Bradford             26   27   -9      -6.12    20.91    -4.95    52.41     6.33   -12.07     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   29.93R    4.49  
Scunthorpe           26   27  -19      -5.99    21.54   -14.36    52.91     6.38   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00    29.55R    4.69  
Oxford_Utd           26   26  -10      -6.86    17.92    -5.23    50.60     6.34   -14.44     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   40.69R    7.32  
Plymouth             26   24  -16      -6.15    20.53    -7.14    46.30     6.20   -24.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.81R   23.14  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   22  -17      -5.82    20.70    -6.05    43.38     5.95   -25.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.00R   42.67  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, Bury 3 1 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     25   51  +21       8.94    88.92     9.36    85.38     6.55    29.35    33.32    76.17    98.06    81.67P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   47  +22       0.78    53.58     4.22    85.24     6.51    35.90    35.13    77.53    97.99    84.47P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        24   45  +19       4.63    74.08     8.28    82.61     6.65    29.93    19.69    62.48    95.20    72.06P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             26   43  +19      -2.31    37.81     4.15    77.81     6.46    30.26     6.35    33.89    84.94    50.01P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     25   43  +14       7.95    85.97    13.15    71.69     6.50    13.92     0.97     8.48    51.32    15.82P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   43  +10       1.66    58.72     1.53    74.23     6.42    15.64     1.96    14.77    66.95    27.79P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         26   42  +12       0.74    53.89     3.71    72.84     6.44    17.19     1.32    11.15    59.93    23.06P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   42   +9       2.13    61.34     2.72    72.02     6.32    12.92     0.74     8.15    53.56    18.75P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   39   +6       3.18    66.56     5.81    65.04     6.46     3.92     0.06     1.10    15.94     3.95P    0.02R    0.01  
Oldham           26   38   +7      -3.79    31.21    -2.32    69.90     6.45    13.61     0.38     4.89    41.64    15.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        26   38   -1       2.68    64.66    -0.48    65.23     6.29    -1.30     0.05     0.86    14.89     3.45P    0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County   25   36   -7       4.83    75.12    -1.78    61.30     6.54   -12.39     0.02     0.26     5.71     1.06P    0.21R    0.03  
Grimsby          26   34   -3       2.79    65.75     3.20    58.61     6.19    -6.95     0.00     0.06     2.22     0.39P    0.52R    0.06  
Swindon          26   33   -7      -2.23    38.89    -6.53    61.10     6.29    -6.15     0.00     0.10     4.96     1.05P    0.22R    0.03  
Crewe            26   31   -7      -0.80    46.25    -1.16    56.65     6.26    -9.56     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.18P    1.36R    0.29  
Northampton      26   30   -3      -6.54    19.78    -4.29    58.86     6.44    -0.97     0.00     0.06     2.97     0.77P    0.51R    0.08  
Crawley_Town     25   30   -6      -1.10    44.92    -0.99    54.82     6.35   -12.36     0.00     0.01     0.73     0.12P    2.58R    0.55  
Cheltenham       25   29   -6      -1.90    40.45    -0.48    56.25     6.50    -8.59     0.00     0.02     1.23     0.22P    1.85R    0.37  
Port_Vale        26   29   -7      -3.42    32.30    -2.58    54.40     6.18    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.08P    2.54R    0.58  
Morecambe        26   26  -16      -1.94    40.44    -4.41    47.93     6.07   -24.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.57R    6.05  
Yeovil           24   24   -4      -5.35    22.77     1.23    50.86     6.53    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    8.98R    2.64  
Cambridge_Utd    26   23  -25      -5.30    23.48   -13.88    45.67     6.14   -32.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.60R   12.92  
Macclesfield     26   21  -20      -2.53    37.22    -1.68    38.93     5.73   -34.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.48R   51.42  
Notts_County     26   20  -27      -9.55     9.17   -16.78    42.61     6.21   -34.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   53.55R   24.98  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 January 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 0 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      28   57  +32       6.71    80.82    14.53    89.85     5.78    44.36    64.33    98.47    75.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            27   53  +19      10.05    90.95    10.35    83.19     5.95    25.22    13.94    85.05    32.39P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       28   52  +22       7.72    82.59    12.84    80.61     6.21    27.96     8.07    73.30    22.99P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          28   50  +23       2.15    60.58     8.80    81.19     5.88    32.80     9.10    78.81    30.76P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     27   48  +15       9.44    89.07    12.42    75.45     6.14    17.36     1.49    39.68     8.66P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     28   47  +16       5.24    73.40    10.91    74.04     6.22    19.62     1.00    32.47     7.52P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          27   46  +10       4.99    74.47     3.82    74.64     6.15    14.02     0.99    34.43     8.43P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      27   46   +6       6.33    79.40     1.98    74.07     6.16     9.30     0.80    29.57     6.78P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   43  +12       0.21    51.09     5.23    70.15     5.97    15.73     0.15    13.64     3.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh          28   43   -2       6.56    80.08     0.56    66.60     5.81    -3.52     0.03     3.78     0.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Barrow             28   39   +0       1.90    60.12     1.45    62.37     5.86    -1.51     0.00     0.81     0.16P    0.32R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       28   37   -1      -2.32    38.37    -3.09    61.62     5.84    -0.56     0.00     0.69     0.16P    0.53R    0.00  
Hartlepool         28   36   -6      -0.48    48.07    -3.65    58.77     5.80    -8.47     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.73R    0.00  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.87    30.32    -9.10    67.87     6.67     4.03     0.09     8.44     2.44P    0.08R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          28   34   -4      -5.10    25.73    -5.46    60.15     6.01    -1.74     0.00     0.44     0.10P    1.29R    0.00  
Bromley            27   33   -4      -4.08    29.98    -4.09    58.43     6.15    -5.03     0.00     0.23     0.05P    2.43R    0.00  
Halifax            27   32   -5       0.42    53.34     1.98    54.95     5.89    -8.90     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.48R    0.03  
Dover_Athletic     28   28  -17      -8.12    14.85   -13.84    52.08     5.90   -17.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.34R    0.26  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.76    18.75   -14.59    49.03     5.85   -24.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.23R    0.83  
Havant_&_Wville    28   26  -13      -4.09    30.84     1.16    44.34     5.88   -23.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.59R    3.91  
Chesterfield       27   25  -10     -12.94     4.44   -11.83    52.49     6.19    -7.71     0.00     0.00     0.00P   15.24R    0.21  
Maidenhead         27   25  -23      -3.75    31.27   -10.02    43.59     5.70   -35.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.73R    5.42  
Maidstone_United   27   22  -19      -5.76    21.61    -5.63    41.92     5.76   -28.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.84R    9.10  
Braintree_Town     28   18  -28      -5.91    20.95    -4.73    32.42     5.30   -44.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.16R   80.23