Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 3 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 December 2018, Burnley 2 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        20   54  +40      10.40    97.59    12.29    93.82     5.13    65.77    70.23    94.89    99.26    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   47  +38       0.37    50.87     1.98    89.03     4.95    69.56    26.60    82.14    96.29    99.56   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   45  +22       4.42    76.66     0.24    81.95     5.41    42.27     2.62    17.50    67.73    91.57    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          20   43  +22       4.07    74.19     4.05    77.58     5.54    37.49     0.54     4.93    29.28    74.52    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          20   38  +12       2.72    66.40    -0.74    71.44     5.71    26.35     0.01     0.45     5.72    24.20    97.09     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   35   +9      -2.22    35.25    -6.32    67.99     5.72    21.96     0.00     0.08     1.71    10.16    92.34     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    20   29   +0       5.02    79.16     5.92    51.85     5.79    -3.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.72     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        20   28   +1       0.23    51.96     1.32    52.16     5.78    -0.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.00     0.02R    0.00  
Watford          20   28   -1       4.33    76.22     5.92    48.78     5.61    -9.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.12R    0.00  
Everton          20   27   +1      -0.97    44.05     1.61    51.58     5.93    -0.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.80     0.06R    0.00  
West_Ham         20   27   -3       2.37    65.32     2.94    48.64     5.69    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.19R    0.00  
Bournemouth      20   26   -9       3.10    69.94     0.68    47.36     5.72   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.45R    0.00  
Brighton         20   25   -5       2.57    66.94     3.25    45.16     5.51   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.83R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   20   19   -9      -3.88    26.50    -1.26    40.67     5.58   -14.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.62R    0.18  
Newcastle        20   18  -12      -5.02    20.39    -4.79    38.21     5.53   -19.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.38R    0.68  
Cardiff          20   18  -19      -0.16    50.67    -2.33    34.32     5.42   -34.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.97R    3.68  
Southampton      20   15  -17      -6.27    14.55    -5.50    35.59     5.61   -24.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.50R    2.21  
Burnley          20   15  -22      -5.57    17.38   -10.28    33.26     5.38   -32.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.46R    5.18  
Fulham           20   14  -25      -4.06    24.84    -5.55    28.36     5.25   -44.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.22R   22.01  
Huddersfield     20   10  -23      -5.80    13.42    -3.40    23.42     4.87   -41.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.15R   66.04  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 December 2018, Birmingham 0 0 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    25   51  +18      11.50    94.17    10.31    83.57     6.67    23.64    30.05    53.80    93.85    62.38P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   48  +14       9.60    89.78     7.90    80.38     6.68    19.29    15.18    33.80    86.04    44.52P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       25   46  +21      -0.18    48.45     2.49    84.22     6.65    35.65    37.52    61.27    95.39    72.68P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       25   44  +14       5.00    74.42     7.01    76.47     6.55    19.42     5.84    16.26    71.03    28.98P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   25   42  +10       0.74    54.21     0.05    75.87     6.48    17.31     4.75    13.60    67.24    29.67P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   42   +6       2.80    64.61    -1.21    75.72     6.57    13.33     4.31    12.57    65.64    25.83P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      25   38  +10       5.93    79.61    13.12    64.83     6.48     7.11     0.12     0.55    11.13     2.39P    0.05R    0.00  
QPR             25   38   -1       5.91    79.07     2.47    63.57     6.41    -6.13     0.06     0.24     7.04     1.32P    0.12R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   37   +9      -3.64    31.29    -0.60    71.90     6.65    18.24     1.67     5.50    45.36    17.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   36   +8       1.98    60.93     8.42    64.86     6.62     8.01     0.11     0.53    11.88     2.83P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_City    25   35   +2      -0.40    48.50     0.40    63.61     6.53     1.62     0.08     0.31     7.95     1.89P    0.17R    0.00  
Stoke           25   35   +1      -2.72    35.98    -3.96    66.29     6.71     4.87     0.20     0.90    15.60     4.69P    0.04R    0.00  
Swansea         25   33   +1      -4.78    26.30    -4.20    64.58     6.75     5.11     0.09     0.46    10.89     3.24P    0.14R    0.01  
Hull            25   33   -3      -0.54    47.55    -1.74    61.96     6.50    -3.16     0.02     0.12     4.74     1.03P    0.34R    0.02  
Blackburn       25   31   -9       0.16    51.74    -3.45    57.62     6.73   -12.53     0.00     0.03     1.37     0.28P    2.33R    0.10  
Sheff_Wed       25   31  -10      -0.42    48.47    -5.41    59.00     6.64   -11.43     0.00     0.03     1.85     0.41P    1.41R    0.05  
Preston         25   29   -4      -5.13    24.73    -3.52    57.79     6.62    -4.18     0.00     0.02     1.36     0.35P    1.90R    0.10  
Brentford       25   27   +0      -8.77    11.85    -1.91    57.45     6.68     2.38     0.00     0.03     1.32     0.34P    2.02R    0.10  
Wigan           25   26  -12      -5.48    23.13    -7.94    53.64     6.60   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    7.08R    0.53  
Millwall        25   25   -9      -6.40    19.15    -4.56    50.79     6.46   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   13.39R    1.34  
Bolton          25   22  -15      -2.17    38.39    -0.57    41.42     5.89   -28.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.95R   19.38  
Rotherham       25   22  -17      -2.23    38.64    -0.86    41.92     6.18   -31.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.57R   19.00  
Reading         25   20  -10      -8.42    11.82    -0.75    43.80     6.36   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.19R   10.90  
Ipswich         25   15  -24     -10.90     5.11   -11.47    37.33     6.20   -34.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.21R   48.47  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 December 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           25   54  +21      13.40    96.57    11.64    88.24     6.63    29.02    24.53    49.15    98.09    60.38P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                25   51  +25       7.37    83.22    10.85    87.28     6.78    36.28    22.58    46.15    97.47    60.46P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           23   47  +21       4.26    71.92     3.69    89.55     7.01    37.91    35.59    59.61    98.48    72.12P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             24   45  +18       2.37    62.14     3.48    84.91     6.88    32.54    13.65    31.91    94.93    52.27P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         25   44  +14       4.15    70.72     5.74    78.24     6.74    22.27     2.22     7.40    76.07    23.03P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             25   43  +11       4.00    70.36     4.10    76.55     6.71    17.98     1.06     4.07    66.79    17.90P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            25   42  +10       5.21    75.64     6.41    73.04     6.67    13.22     0.35     1.59    43.20     9.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   35   +2       1.42    58.25     0.81    64.25     6.68     0.88     0.01     0.05     7.26     1.36P    1.11R    0.03  
Coventry             25   35   -3       5.07    75.94     2.70    60.22     6.43    -8.06     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.27P    4.43R    0.15  
Accrington_Stanley   24   34   -5       5.31    77.05     1.16    60.02     6.71   -11.33     0.00     0.01     1.98     0.25P    5.74R    0.32  
Fleetwood_Town       25   33   +5      -2.52    36.78     3.34    63.35     6.67     7.30     0.00     0.04     6.03     1.17P    1.67R    0.06  
Southend             25   32   -1      -2.12    39.45    -0.63    60.36     6.62    -1.72     0.00     0.00     2.34     0.41P    4.23R    0.23  
Wycombe              25   32   -2       2.15    62.05     5.19    57.03     6.61    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.12P   11.48R    0.89  
Walsall              25   32  -12       2.87    66.20    -3.94    56.71     6.44   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.08P   13.24R    1.04  
Burton_Albion        24   31   -3      -1.90    40.43    -2.97    59.10     6.84    -6.11     0.00     0.01     1.86     0.36P    7.15R    0.42  
Rochdale             25   30  -14      -0.01    50.63    -6.90    54.70     6.52   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P   21.21R    2.22  
Shrewsbury           25   29   -3      -5.45    23.14    -3.32    58.67     6.58    -1.60     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.26P    6.98R    0.43  
Gillingham           25   28   -5      -3.52    32.31    -0.33    54.91     6.56    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P   18.49R    1.84  
Bristol_Rovers       25   26   -4      -6.08    20.29    -0.55    52.62     6.54    -7.19     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   27.91R    3.75  
Oxford_Utd           25   26   -7      -6.34    19.80    -3.61    52.64     6.61   -10.46     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   28.93R    3.98  
Bradford             25   24  -12      -6.74    17.97    -6.42    50.43     6.51   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   42.15R    7.52  
Scunthorpe           25   24  -21      -7.28    16.45   -15.73    50.22     6.58   -25.61     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   46.05R    9.34  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   22  -16      -5.16    23.18    -6.05    44.15     6.15   -25.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.35R   32.57  
Plymouth             25   21  -19      -6.91    16.79    -8.67    43.99     6.39   -28.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.86R   35.21  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 December 2018, Cambridge_Utd 1 2 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     24   50  +21       9.68    91.30     9.93    86.50     6.74    30.45    45.94    83.56    98.72    87.48P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          24   44  +16       1.74    59.02     2.22    82.93     6.76    28.78    24.30    68.30    95.82    77.01P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        23   42  +18       3.41    68.71     7.77    81.21     6.83    29.24    17.53    59.33    93.49    69.28P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   42  +11       2.82    64.90     3.75    74.11     6.54    15.99     2.54    17.94    68.64    30.29P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             25   40  +17      -2.74    35.41     3.98    76.47     6.74    28.65     5.67    32.13    80.95    47.47P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     24   40  +13       6.66    82.20    12.54    70.08     6.73    12.88     0.85     7.64    45.02    14.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter           25   40   +8       0.64    53.61     0.44    72.16     6.61    12.98     1.38    11.63    57.01    22.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         25   39  +10      -0.10    49.48     2.87    71.08     6.64    14.97     1.07     9.43    51.63    19.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         25   38   +6       3.51    68.14     5.75    65.98     6.60     4.78     0.17     2.11    22.04     5.94P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   24   36   -6       5.69    78.74    -1.52    62.57     6.73   -11.53     0.05     0.75     9.90     2.17P    0.20R    0.03  
Oldham           25   35   +5      -4.60    27.45    -3.08    68.78     6.69    12.44     0.41     5.21    38.17    14.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        25   35   -2       1.61    59.22    -0.65    63.74     6.53    -2.07     0.04     0.85    12.74     3.05P    0.09R    0.02  
Grimsby          25   34   -2       3.79    70.73     3.73    59.79     6.40    -6.19     0.00     0.18     4.25     0.85P    0.47R    0.07  
Swindon          25   33   -5      -1.55    42.00    -5.50    63.07     6.53    -3.23     0.03     0.58    10.84     2.77P    0.15R    0.02  
Crewe            25   31   -5      -0.19    49.59    -0.52    57.56     6.43    -8.28     0.00     0.06     2.13     0.45P    1.29R    0.20  
Northampton      25   30   -2      -5.75    22.46    -4.16    60.31     6.68     0.15     0.02     0.24     6.17     1.72P    0.55R    0.09  
Port_Vale        25   28   -7      -3.36    32.61    -3.06    54.05     6.34   -10.94     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.13P    4.25R    1.02  
Crawley_Town     24   27   -8      -2.25    38.51    -2.19    52.59     6.52   -15.30     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.07P    7.03R    1.80  
Cheltenham       24   26   -9      -2.84    34.93    -2.51    53.44     6.72   -13.36     0.00     0.01     0.61     0.12P    6.13R    1.55  
Morecambe        25   26  -14      -1.18    44.43    -3.42    49.37     6.24   -21.94     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   16.14R    4.86  
Yeovil           23   24   -1      -4.68    25.23     3.11    53.21     6.78    -4.37     0.00     0.02     0.74     0.15P    6.05R    1.57  
Cambridge_Utd    25   23  -19      -6.06    19.82   -11.38    47.28     6.30   -25.71     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   26.29R    9.46  
Macclesfield     25   20  -20      -2.34    37.85    -1.84    38.94     5.99   -34.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.13R   56.28  
Notts_County     25   20  -25      -9.07    10.05   -16.26    43.56     6.35   -33.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    52.18R   23.04  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 December 2018, Barrow 3 2 Salford_City; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      27   54  +31       5.62    76.82    14.25    88.76     5.99    44.18    53.07    96.96    67.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            26   53  +21      10.64    92.77    11.37    84.99     6.13    27.82    22.21    88.91    40.42P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          27   49  +23       2.88    64.57     9.25    82.20     6.09    33.77    12.44    80.50    32.83P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       27   49  +20       6.80    79.98    11.98    78.51     6.39    25.25     4.94    58.52    16.58P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     26   47  +15       9.98    91.01    12.65    75.90     6.29    17.49     1.81    39.58     8.81P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     27   46  +16       5.62    75.32    10.93    74.60     6.47    19.92     1.46    34.33     8.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          26   46  +11       5.97    78.81     4.30    76.46     6.37    15.68     2.25    43.19    11.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      26   46   +7       7.35    83.68     2.45    75.55     6.30    10.45     1.57    36.14     8.48P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   27   40   +8       0.04    50.34     3.32    68.42     6.14    11.65     0.07     7.91     1.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastleigh          27   40   -3       5.40    76.29     0.31    65.37     6.06    -3.96     0.01     2.47     0.41P    0.15R    0.00  
Barrow             27   38   +0       2.05    61.03     1.19    62.04     6.04    -2.59     0.00     0.75     0.13P    0.59R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       27   36   -1      -2.09    39.30    -3.24    61.70     5.99    -0.89     0.00     0.62     0.13P    0.57R    0.00  
Barnet             24   34   -2      -3.35    32.18    -8.85    68.48     6.83     4.38     0.16     9.33     2.57P    0.07R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          27   34   -3      -4.43    28.40    -5.47    61.08     6.12    -1.43     0.00     0.52     0.12P    1.01R    0.01  
Hartlepool         27   33   -7      -1.78    41.38    -4.12    56.76     5.97   -10.03     0.00     0.09     0.01P    4.34R    0.04  
Halifax            26   31   -5       0.59    54.05     1.71    55.19     6.08    -9.03     0.00     0.04     0.01P    7.68R    0.10  
Bromley            26   30   -5      -5.50    23.64    -4.81    56.76     6.40    -6.09     0.00     0.12     0.02P    5.17R    0.07  
Havant_&_Wville    27   26  -12      -3.17    34.97     1.44    45.25     6.05   -23.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.70R    4.77  
Aldershot          27   26  -21      -6.31    19.90   -14.38    49.98     6.08   -23.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.11R    1.17  
Dover_Athletic     27   25  -18      -9.17    11.28   -13.91    50.23     6.14   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.42R    1.11  
Chesterfield       26   24  -10     -12.64     4.43   -11.92    52.52     6.44    -8.11     0.00     0.01     0.01P   16.91R    0.50  
Maidenhead         26   24  -23      -3.56    32.05   -10.14    43.62     5.97   -35.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.90R    8.89  
Maidstone_United   26   22  -18      -4.81    25.43    -5.10    43.44     6.00   -26.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.11R    9.04  
Braintree_Town     27   18  -24      -5.95    20.56    -3.21    33.90     5.60   -39.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.24R   74.29