Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 27 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 December 2018, Brighton 1 1 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        19   51  +36      10.01    97.36    10.61    92.28     5.42    61.70    60.95    87.66    98.02    99.79   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        19   45  +24       5.94    85.02     2.35    84.84     5.48    46.93     9.69    35.02    81.31    95.82    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         19   44  +36      -0.11    47.16     1.92    88.42     5.12    69.39    28.68    72.12    94.51    99.13   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          19   40  +21       2.96    68.31     3.65    76.61     5.75    37.57     0.54     3.99    18.50    65.38    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          19   38  +16       2.79    67.18     0.92    72.86     5.88    30.51     0.14     1.14     6.92    32.68    97.46     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          19   32   +6      -2.66    32.25    -7.26    66.90     5.88    19.83     0.00     0.06     0.73     7.06    85.79     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        19   28   +2       1.87    62.26     2.68    54.58     5.96     1.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     6.91     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          19   27   +2       0.17    51.36     2.17    53.45     6.19     1.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.66     0.01R    0.00  
Watford          19   27   -1       4.63    78.10     5.81    49.48     5.85    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.07R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    19   26   -2       3.62    73.01     4.07    48.40     5.88    -8.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.15R    0.01  
Bournemouth      19   26   -6       3.38    71.74     1.54    48.27     5.92   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.83     0.26R    0.00  
West_Ham         18   24   -2       1.71    62.04     3.27    48.77     6.16    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.23R    0.00  
Brighton         19   22   -6       1.07    58.16     2.51    43.17     5.66   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.57R    0.03  
Crystal_Palace   19   19   -8      -3.19    30.12    -1.16    41.54     5.81   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.35R    0.11  
Newcastle        19   17  -12      -4.83    20.61    -5.07    38.48     5.71   -19.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.95R    0.49  
Southampton      18   15  -14      -4.73    20.36    -4.95    37.65     5.99   -22.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    12.94R    1.08  
Cardiff          19   15  -20      -2.01    37.47    -3.30    31.72     5.53   -37.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.94R    7.94  
Burnley          19   12  -24      -6.81    10.79   -11.57    31.11     5.56   -35.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.44R    9.26  
Fulham           19   11  -26      -5.20    17.68    -5.49    26.83     5.49   -45.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.84R   31.71  
Huddersfield     19   10  -22      -4.75    18.06    -2.71    24.45     5.06   -41.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.25R   49.35  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 December 2018, Birmingham 2 0 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    24   51  +20      12.56    96.09    11.80    86.07     6.86    27.31    36.52    63.74    96.83    71.43P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         24   48  +15      10.73    92.86     8.44    82.23     6.83    21.08    17.14    39.00    90.75    50.07P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       24   45  +21       0.51    51.91     2.92    85.64     6.88    37.43    37.48    64.75    96.53    75.44P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       24   41  +11       4.54    72.97     5.77    74.73     6.77    16.25     2.68     9.09    60.86    20.74P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   39   +8       0.20    51.06    -0.50    74.52     6.64    15.73     2.27     8.06    59.63    23.48P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   39   +5       1.42    57.55    -1.88    73.59     6.79    11.58     1.81     6.38    53.00    18.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham      24   37  +10       6.32    81.45    13.26    65.24     6.70     7.10     0.08     0.49    13.03     2.66P    0.08R    0.00  
QPR             24   37   -1       6.27    80.95     2.61    64.51     6.63    -5.35     0.08     0.39     9.78     1.81P    0.10R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     24   36   +9      -3.10    33.33    -0.45    72.32     6.89    18.28     1.44     5.36    48.62    17.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   24   36   +9       2.86    65.72     8.68    66.58     6.81     9.54     0.15     0.83    18.36     4.22P    0.04R    0.00  
Stoke           24   34   +1      -2.42    37.38    -4.08    67.36     6.95     5.84     0.21     1.08    20.96     6.19P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City    24   32   +1      -1.37    42.75     0.43    62.56     6.73     1.52     0.03     0.16     6.66     1.49P    0.31R    0.01  
Swansea         24   32   +1      -4.16    28.75    -3.91    65.49     6.85     5.83     0.10     0.54    13.91     4.11P    0.08R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   31   -6       0.13    51.45    -2.65    59.40     6.87    -8.91     0.00     0.04     2.67     0.58P    1.34R    0.07  
Hull            24   30   -5      -1.96    40.16    -3.33    59.41     6.70    -6.64     0.00     0.03     2.55     0.56P    1.16R    0.05  
Sheff_Wed       24   30  -10      -0.28    49.13    -5.84    58.30     6.77   -13.29     0.00     0.02     1.81     0.37P    1.97R    0.11  
Preston         24   28   -4      -4.85    25.40    -3.66    58.06     6.83    -4.40     0.00     0.03     1.87     0.42P    1.95R    0.10  
Brentford       24   26   +0      -8.34    12.34    -1.78    57.65     6.90     2.13     0.00     0.02     1.82     0.47P    2.22R    0.14  
Wigan           24   25  -12      -5.16    23.86    -8.06    53.43     6.80   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    8.19R    0.77  
Millwall        24   22  -10      -7.68    13.79    -4.92    48.96     6.61   -14.87     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   20.61R    2.94  
Rotherham       24   22  -16      -1.57    42.09    -0.80    42.73     6.36   -31.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.96R   17.48  
Bolton          24   21  -15      -2.04    39.05    -0.58    41.40     6.09   -29.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.28R   22.03  
Reading         24   19  -10      -8.11    11.94    -0.69    43.58     6.54   -18.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.99R   13.10  
Ipswich         24   15  -22     -10.46     5.69   -10.81    38.30     6.39   -32.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.64R   43.20  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 December 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           24   51  +18      12.93    96.33    10.40    85.78     6.80    24.74    15.02    36.93    95.82    50.21P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                24   50  +25       8.16    86.39    11.40    88.09     7.00    36.97    27.49    54.61    97.95    66.77P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           22   46  +21       4.71    74.73     3.71    90.67     7.27    39.17    43.95    68.51    98.79    78.51P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             24   43  +12       4.90    75.07     4.39    77.69     6.81    18.64     1.87     7.21    73.70    22.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnsley             23   42  +17       1.46    57.77     3.51    83.20     7.07    31.44    10.15    26.79    92.21    48.59P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         24   41  +10       3.87    69.67     3.90    75.86     6.92    17.06     1.27     4.63    64.39    17.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster            24   39   +8       4.28    72.21     5.44    71.00     6.87    10.56     0.19     0.98    34.39     7.37P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            23   34   +2       1.77    60.11     0.85    64.92     6.88     1.24     0.03     0.10     9.89     1.93P    0.98R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley   23   34   -1       5.28    77.19     3.04    62.23     7.02    -6.03     0.01     0.06     5.20     0.82P    2.95R    0.10  
Fleetwood_Town       24   33   +8      -2.13    38.73     4.89    65.47     6.83    11.46     0.02     0.13    12.18     2.69P    0.75R    0.01  
Southend             24   32   +0      -1.16    43.94    -0.20    62.17     6.76    -0.06     0.01     0.02     4.80     0.90P    2.48R    0.08  
Wycombe              24   32   -1       2.97    66.32     5.35    58.52     6.83    -7.07     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.26P    7.87R    0.47  
Coventry             24   32   -4       3.74    70.64     2.21    58.24     6.64    -9.63     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.21P    8.07R    0.41  
Walsall              24   31  -12       3.00    67.35    -4.41    56.43     6.61   -19.21     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.11P   13.68R    1.07  
Burton_Albion        23   30   -3      -1.26    43.48    -2.54    59.89     7.06    -5.58     0.00     0.01     2.91     0.58P    5.85R    0.32  
Rochdale             24   30  -10       0.22    52.08    -4.77    57.30     6.73   -15.04     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.15P   11.35R    0.78  
Gillingham           24   28   -3      -2.71    36.02     0.73    56.66     6.78    -5.73     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.15P   11.84R    0.93  
Shrewsbury           24   28   -3      -5.45    22.51    -3.95    58.45     6.71    -2.52     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.34P    7.26R    0.43  
Oxford_Utd           24   26   -5      -5.53    22.62    -2.45    54.94     6.83    -7.02     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.11P   17.59R    1.78  
Bristol_Rovers       24   23   -6      -7.19    15.54    -1.73    50.17     6.73   -10.39     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   41.21R    6.83  
Bradford             24   21  -16      -7.15    15.45    -8.66    47.59     6.69   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    58.56R   14.44  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   21  -16      -4.92    23.95    -6.03    44.29     6.38   -25.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.32R   27.92  
Scunthorpe           24   21  -22      -8.58    11.67   -16.13    48.70     6.77   -26.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   53.45R   12.23  
Plymouth             24   20  -19      -6.73    16.86    -8.95    43.88     6.58   -29.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   78.74R   32.16  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 December 2018, Cambridge_Utd 2 1 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     23   47  +20       8.34    88.30     9.28    85.20     6.95    29.94    36.02    75.23    97.40    81.00P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   43  +16       2.21    62.05     2.34    83.39     6.99    28.89    25.94    66.82    95.38    76.12P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        22   41  +18       3.98    72.02     8.01    82.36     6.97    30.51    21.79    62.22    94.15    71.90P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       24   41  +11       3.63    69.15     4.34    75.31     6.72    17.21     3.51    20.53    72.42    33.11P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           24   40   +9       2.05    61.08     1.41    74.49     6.77    15.36     2.63    17.63    67.72    30.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             24   39  +17      -2.32    37.15     3.94    77.54     6.94    29.84     7.73    34.87    82.93    50.39P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     23   39  +13       7.15    84.61    12.70    70.27     6.94    12.63     0.91     7.44    43.66    13.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   37   +6       4.06    71.27     6.07    66.77     6.91     5.28     0.25     2.63    24.93     6.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Carlisle         24   36   +9      -0.97    44.76     3.00    70.20     6.86    15.13     0.82     7.03    44.32    16.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        24   35   -1       2.68    65.28     0.03    65.25     6.75    -0.86     0.08     1.37    17.35     4.36P    0.08R    0.01  
Newport_County   23   35   -6       5.94    80.51    -1.61    63.63     6.98   -10.65     0.06     1.01    12.43     2.71P    0.23R    0.03  
Oldham           24   32   +2      -5.17    24.24    -4.38    66.49     6.86     8.36     0.21     2.29    24.24     8.13P    0.04R    0.01  
Swindon          24   32   -5      -1.58    41.58    -6.07    62.95     6.71    -3.98     0.03     0.56    10.23     2.52P    0.17R    0.04  
Grimsby          24   31   -3       2.09    62.58     2.67    57.19     6.51    -8.63     0.00     0.04     1.86     0.33P    1.60R    0.30  
Northampton      24   29   -2      -5.41    23.58    -4.20    60.41     6.89    -0.15     0.01     0.24     6.21     1.61P    0.65R    0.12  
Port_Vale        24   28   -4      -2.81    35.08    -1.32    55.85     6.55    -7.21     0.00     0.02     1.30     0.29P    2.73R    0.65  
Crewe            24   28   -6      -1.66    41.31    -1.18    55.94     6.64    -9.30     0.00     0.02     1.36     0.30P    2.75R    0.57  
Crawley_Town     23   26   -8      -1.99    39.49    -2.28    52.55     6.71   -16.18     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.08P    7.84R    2.22  
Cheltenham       23   25   -9      -2.41    37.05    -2.49    53.81     6.90   -13.34     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.15P    6.17R    1.59  
Morecambe        24   25  -14      -1.33    43.40    -3.93    49.14     6.46   -23.03     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   18.13R    5.85  
Yeovil           22   23   -1      -4.59    25.15     2.79    53.42     7.01    -4.72     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.15P    6.60R    1.76  
Cambridge_Utd    24   23  -18      -5.00    23.62   -10.87    48.42     6.50   -25.08     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   21.66R    7.67  
Macclesfield     24   20  -19      -1.62    41.78    -1.86    39.44     6.11   -35.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.92R   53.33  
Notts_County     24   19  -25      -8.93     9.83   -16.41    43.35     6.52   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.41R   25.86  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 December 2018, Barrow 1 1 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      26   53  +31       6.16    79.79    14.37    89.74     6.18    45.17    59.07    97.34    72.03P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            25   50  +20       9.54    90.84    11.05    83.50     6.32    27.05    15.18    82.42    33.38P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       26   49  +21       7.93    84.34    12.53    80.37     6.65    27.01     8.09    67.25    21.65P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     25   47  +16      10.79    92.81    12.95    77.11     6.51    18.34     2.92    46.29    11.42P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          26   46  +22       1.49    57.49     8.60    80.47     6.32    32.65     7.91    70.08    26.73P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     26   46  +17       6.66    79.67    11.36    76.27     6.68    21.36     2.63    42.92    10.66P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          25   45  +11       6.56    81.39     4.58    77.36     6.57    16.39     3.04    47.26    13.32P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      25   43   +6       6.30    80.35     2.29    74.18     6.49     9.87     0.96    27.87     6.47P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          26   40   +0       5.68    77.67     1.70    67.01     6.28    -0.49     0.04     4.62     0.84P    0.08R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   26   37   +5      -0.50    47.59     1.93    66.43     6.38     8.10     0.04     4.53     1.06P    0.12R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       26   36   +0      -0.87    45.64    -2.38    63.89     6.19     1.17     0.01     1.80     0.38P    0.31R    0.00  
Barrow             26   35   -1       0.67    54.41     0.51    60.09     6.22    -4.08     0.00     0.36     0.05P    1.67R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          26   34   -2      -3.36    33.29    -4.85    62.60     6.37    -0.20     0.01     1.16     0.29P    0.74R    0.00  
Hartlepool         26   32   -7      -1.66    41.62    -4.37    56.86     6.11   -10.39     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.16R    0.01  
Barnet             23   31   -3      -4.73    25.20    -9.50    66.50     7.05     2.90     0.08     5.91     1.68P    0.31R    0.00  
Halifax            25   30   -5       0.91    56.29     1.72    54.87     6.27   -10.04     0.00     0.05     0.01P   10.25R    0.08  
Bromley            25   27   -8      -6.09    20.51    -6.12    54.56     6.61   -10.05     0.00     0.05     0.01P   12.15R    0.12  
Havant_&_Wville    26   26   -9      -2.98    35.84     2.42    47.35     6.34   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.50R    1.58  
Aldershot          26   26  -20      -5.35    23.47   -13.94    50.87     6.21   -23.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.31R    0.56  
Dover_Athletic     26   24  -18      -9.05    10.99   -14.17    50.22     6.36   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.01R    0.80  
Maidenhead         25   24  -22      -2.40    37.84    -9.29    45.70     6.20   -33.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.44R    3.66  
Chesterfield       25   23  -10     -12.15     4.57   -11.70    53.25     6.62    -7.60     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.23R    0.25  
Maidstone_United   25   19  -19      -6.40    17.76    -5.85    40.96     6.14   -29.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.65R   12.27  
Braintree_Town     26   15  -25      -7.50    13.88    -3.81    31.69     5.84   -42.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.06R   80.66