Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 17 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 December 2018, Brighton 1 2 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        17   45  +30       9.38    97.20     8.97    90.07     5.80    56.92    25.83    80.26    94.88    99.14   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         17   44  +38       3.78    78.93     5.39    94.48     5.25    77.85    70.85    95.14    99.18    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        17   39  +15       5.84    85.58    -0.85    81.58     6.00    37.05     2.46    15.72    59.04    87.12    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          17   37  +21       3.71    74.27     4.96    78.22     6.12    40.71     0.76     7.31    34.94    74.47    99.70     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          17   34  +14       2.91    69.15     1.10    73.10     6.23    30.98     0.10     1.54    11.25    35.06    97.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          17   26   +0      -3.19    28.50    -8.81    64.48     6.32    14.89     0.00     0.02     0.69     4.19    78.95     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    17   25   +0       4.53    78.95     4.76    50.02     6.32    -6.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.71     0.17R    0.00  
Everton          17   24   +2      -0.10    49.46     2.00    52.47     6.54     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     7.87     0.10R    0.00  
West_Ham         17   24   +0       2.81    69.42     4.69    51.15     6.39    -4.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.25     0.14R    0.00  
Watford          17   24   -2       4.09    77.10     4.30    47.70     6.17   -12.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.73     0.50R    0.01  
Bournemouth      17   23   -3       2.00    64.31     2.33    47.82     6.27   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.77     0.59R    0.01  
Leicester        17   22   +0      -1.85    37.97    -0.31    48.68     6.25    -5.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.46     0.37R    0.01  
Brighton         17   21   -4       1.71    63.08     2.85    44.48     6.14   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.59     1.90R    0.05  
Newcastle        17   16   -8      -4.27    22.62    -3.11    40.43     6.09   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     7.58R    0.55  
Crystal_Palace   17   15   -9      -4.50    21.24    -2.91    38.88     6.06   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    11.90R    0.93  
Cardiff          17   14  -16      -1.86    37.56    -2.13    32.85     5.94   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.31R    8.44  
Southampton      17   12  -16      -5.83    13.87    -6.21    35.81     6.16   -24.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.55R    3.60  
Burnley          17   12  -18      -6.05    12.66    -9.21    33.88     6.01   -29.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    37.59R    5.86  
Huddersfield     17   10  -18      -3.54    24.11    -1.70    26.38     5.45   -38.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.57R   39.75  
Fulham           17    9  -26      -5.10    16.04    -6.09    26.71     5.92   -47.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.72R   40.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 December 2018, Aston_Villa 2 2 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    22   45  +18      10.11    93.09    10.94    82.55     7.25    24.92    27.56    48.40    89.33    57.62P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         22   44  +14      10.04    92.44     8.36    81.22     7.23    20.42    20.69    39.77    85.52    49.26P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       22   39  +15      -0.01    49.60     1.19    82.22     7.32    31.04    27.94    48.76    88.97    61.43P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       22   37   +9       4.22    72.67     5.18    73.23     7.16    13.88     3.29     9.22    49.11    17.72P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   37   +7       3.39    69.08    -0.13    77.19     7.35    15.86     8.97    20.89    69.35    33.41P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   22   36   +8       0.29    51.61     0.01    75.49     7.07    17.52     5.52    14.46    62.03    28.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   34  +10       4.53    75.22     9.04    68.41     7.42    10.00     0.91     3.08    25.51     7.42P    0.06R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   33   +9      -3.33    31.71    -0.39    72.24     7.34    18.67     3.00     8.14    46.06    18.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         22   32   +3      -2.01    38.58    -2.76    69.17     7.29     9.23     0.97     3.15    28.33     9.89P    0.06R    0.00  
Birmingham      22   31   +5       4.29    74.31    10.20    60.07     7.00    -0.73     0.03     0.14     3.62     0.73P    1.40R    0.04  
Stoke           22   31   +2      -2.69    35.14    -3.15    68.24     7.41     8.53     0.81     2.67    24.34     8.48P    0.07R    0.00  
Blackburn       22   31   -4       1.98    61.59    -2.03    62.07     7.33    -7.08     0.08     0.38     6.30     1.50P    0.99R    0.06  
QPR             22   31   -5       4.21    73.60     0.51    60.14     7.03   -11.20     0.03     0.13     3.31     0.67P    1.60R    0.09  
Bristol_City    22   30   +1      -0.75    46.06     0.23    63.05     7.16     1.00     0.11     0.43     8.01     2.04P    0.56R    0.02  
Preston         22   28   -2      -2.51    36.25    -2.25    61.58     7.30    -1.23     0.07     0.27     5.67     1.42P    1.11R    0.06  
Wigan           22   25   -7      -4.46    26.27    -6.13    57.46     7.25    -7.55     0.01     0.06     1.72     0.43P    3.94R    0.36  
Hull            22   24   -7      -4.49    26.24    -4.31    54.85     7.01   -10.64     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.13P    7.47R    0.80  
Sheff_Wed       22   24  -12      -3.46    31.13    -7.52    54.12     7.10   -16.76     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.09P    9.81R    1.07  
Brentford       22   22   -1      -9.06     9.28    -2.01    56.88     7.33     1.86     0.01     0.04     1.67     0.43P    4.54R    0.44  
Rotherham       22   22  -11      -0.67    47.23     1.07    45.86     6.90   -25.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   45.92R   11.15  
Reading         22   19   -8      -6.47    16.70    -0.13    46.17     6.99   -17.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   41.21R    9.68  
Millwall        22   19  -10      -8.09    11.36    -5.06    48.56     7.05   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   28.42R    5.35  
Bolton          22   18  -15      -2.74    34.02    -1.15    40.53     6.46   -30.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.83R   33.58  
Ipswich         22   14  -19      -9.97     5.80    -9.70    40.00     6.79   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.00R   37.30  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 December 2018, Barnsley 1 1 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           22   48  +18      12.61    96.79    10.39    85.50     7.20    24.69    16.10    39.47    93.60    51.43P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                22   44  +21       6.65    82.79    10.13    84.79     7.41    32.90    14.98    38.82    92.39    53.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           20   43  +22       4.72    76.12     5.04    92.26     7.57    43.12    56.60    77.38    98.77    84.42P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         22   40  +12       5.19    76.92     5.16    78.44     7.37    20.34     3.34    11.87    71.48    25.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton             22   40  +11       5.43    78.18     4.58    77.96     7.22    18.45     2.57     9.82    69.34    23.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster            22   38  +11       5.28    77.51     7.26    73.87     7.27    15.27     0.85     3.81    46.87    12.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley             21   36  +14      -0.71    45.44     2.13    79.96     7.57    28.49     5.38    17.65    78.78    37.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            21   34   +4       3.79    71.57     1.82    67.99     7.33     3.67     0.14     0.70    17.81     4.08P    0.31R    0.01  
Wycombe              22   32   +2       4.65    74.98     6.62    62.49     7.31    -2.10     0.01     0.11     5.68     1.02P    2.46R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town       22   30   +6      -1.57    41.25     4.11    64.84     7.27     8.92     0.03     0.22    10.09     2.45P    0.97R    0.03  
Walsall              22   30  -10       3.84    71.80    -3.88    58.16     7.00   -17.30     0.00     0.01     1.22     0.20P    8.56R    0.46  
Southend             22   29   +0      -1.25    43.34     0.11    62.35     7.26     0.54     0.00     0.06     5.10     1.12P    2.61R    0.09  
Coventry             22   29   -4       2.90    66.99     1.56    57.44     7.06   -10.42     0.00     0.01     1.10     0.17P    9.70R    0.48  
Accrington_Stanley   21   28   -5       3.21    69.37     0.77    57.38     7.35   -12.40     0.00     0.01     1.35     0.24P   11.10R    0.76  
Burton_Albion        21   27   -3      -1.56    41.38    -2.69    59.35     7.48    -6.08     0.01     0.03     2.53     0.54P    6.63R    0.33  
Gillingham           22   25   -3      -3.36    31.91     0.20    55.60     7.21    -7.08     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.14P   14.65R    1.11  
Shrewsbury           22   25   -3      -5.50    21.40    -3.56    58.53     7.14    -2.06     0.00     0.01     1.67     0.39P    6.75R    0.39  
Oxford_Utd           22   25   -4      -4.15    27.67    -2.00    56.54     7.26    -6.32     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.21P   11.89R    0.84  
Rochdale             22   24  -12      -2.57    36.25    -6.01    52.94     7.11   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.02P   26.10R    2.69  
Scunthorpe           22   21  -18      -7.19    14.89   -14.26    52.08     7.29   -21.62     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   31.39R    4.02  
Plymouth             22   20  -15      -5.06    23.06    -6.66    47.72     7.07   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   54.08R   10.86  
Bradford             22   18  -17      -7.45    13.32    -9.67    45.95     7.02   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   63.45R   16.18  
Bristol_Rovers       22   17   -9      -9.71     6.88    -3.62    45.96     7.05   -14.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   61.16R   14.46  
AFC_Wimbledon        22   15  -18      -7.83    10.61    -7.52    40.13     6.67   -29.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.15R   47.23  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 December 2018, Cambridge_Utd 0 0 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     21   44  +20       8.78    90.80    10.38    85.95     7.31    31.41    31.69    78.19    97.80    83.33P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          21   43  +19       4.33    74.08     4.40    88.40     7.34    35.16    48.36    85.96    98.98    90.18P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       22   38  +11       3.37    68.71     4.35    74.86     7.12    16.94     2.72    21.07    71.75    33.23P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             22   36  +17      -2.32    36.50     4.37    77.79     7.34    30.63     6.64    38.17    84.31    52.80P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        20   35  +15       1.76    60.33     6.56    78.69     7.43    26.85     7.85    41.56    86.10    54.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   21   35   -2       7.61    87.75     0.44    66.40     7.32    -6.45     0.24     3.07    25.59     6.40P    0.08R    0.01  
Exeter           22   34   +7      -0.59    46.64     0.36    70.97     7.21    13.00     0.85     9.44    51.28    20.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         22   34   +5       4.32    73.21     5.68    65.79     7.25     3.13     0.16     2.63    23.96     6.48P    0.10R    0.01  
Forest_Green     21   33   +9       5.04    77.80    10.38    66.19     7.34     7.45     0.17     3.12    26.60     7.22P    0.08R    0.01  
Oldham           22   32   +9      -4.49    25.83    -0.46    71.54     7.22    18.84     1.07    11.26    55.80    24.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        22   32   +0       1.89    61.34     0.14    64.50     7.10    -0.56     0.08     1.50    18.17     4.80P    0.14R    0.01  
Carlisle         22   30   +2      -1.99    38.72    -0.61    65.09     7.21     5.39     0.11     1.94    21.48     6.37P    0.12R    0.01  
Swindon          22   30   -5      -0.58    47.28    -5.62    63.94     7.15    -3.63     0.04     1.15    16.29     4.33P    0.25R    0.04  
Northampton      22   27   -2      -4.43    26.80    -3.87    61.34     7.29     0.14     0.02     0.57    10.10     2.74P    0.67R    0.11  
Port_Vale        22   27   -3      -1.25    43.20    -0.52    58.76     6.96    -4.59     0.00     0.18     4.65     1.01P    1.38R    0.23  
Crawley_Town     21   26   -6       0.04    50.94    -1.48    55.75     7.16   -13.19     0.01     0.09     2.21     0.45P    3.96R    0.73  
Crewe            22   25   -6      -2.24    37.51    -1.61    55.05     7.02   -10.31     0.00     0.02     1.59     0.31P    4.49R    0.92  
Grimsby          22   25   -8       0.10    51.62    -0.45    52.42     6.85   -15.81     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.10P    9.22R    1.99  
Yeovil           20   22   +0      -3.37    30.44     3.00    54.80     7.40    -4.28     0.00     0.07     1.99     0.43P    5.28R    1.12  
Morecambe        22   22  -15      -1.48    42.02    -4.99    48.01     6.78   -25.19     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   25.63R    7.40  
Cheltenham       21   21  -11      -3.57    29.89    -4.17    50.68     7.23   -18.16     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.07P   15.10R    3.92  
Cambridge_Utd    22   20  -16      -5.81    19.13    -9.73    48.83     6.95   -21.89     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   21.73R    6.37  
Notts_County     22   19  -20      -7.45    13.47   -13.70    48.06     7.05   -26.31     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   26.14R    7.70  
Macclesfield     22   16  -20      -3.04    32.54    -2.84    36.83     6.41   -38.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.62R   69.42  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Barrow 1 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      24   50  +30       6.76    83.26    14.71    90.07     6.61    44.81    53.15    97.02    67.67P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       24   49  +26       8.64    87.70    14.59    85.30     7.04    35.26    22.28    87.35    39.42P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     24   46  +19       8.74    87.61    12.23    80.50     7.14    25.72     7.61    68.22    20.56P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            23   46  +16       9.73    92.42     9.03    81.46     6.65    22.02     8.04    72.60    23.71P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     23   44  +13      11.43    95.08    11.34    76.12     6.80    14.36     1.89    40.78     8.74P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          24   42  +20       1.20    56.23     8.02    79.53     6.70    31.05     5.37    65.06    23.23P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          23   39   +9       4.46    74.10     4.27    74.44     6.89    14.81     1.14    32.59     8.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      23   37   +4       3.98    71.58     1.66    70.93     6.95     7.85     0.36    16.45     3.75P    0.03R    0.00  
Eastleigh          24   36   -1       4.92    75.83     1.43    65.38     6.66    -2.05     0.03     3.70     0.64P    0.30R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   24   34   +5      -0.18    49.51     2.75    66.36     6.72     8.46     0.02     5.51     1.27P    0.21R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       23   31   -1      -1.16    43.57    -2.44    63.20     6.84     0.53     0.01     2.22     0.48P    0.97R    0.00  
Barrow             24   31   -2      -0.58    47.34    -0.38    57.77     6.57    -6.61     0.00     0.27     0.04P    5.24R    0.02  
Hartlepool         24   31   -6      -0.27    48.91    -3.91    58.84     6.53    -9.01     0.00     0.38     0.05P    3.74R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          24   28   -4      -6.18    19.43    -6.22    58.09     6.71    -4.01     0.00     0.36     0.08P    4.85R    0.04  
Barnet             21   28   -4      -4.41    25.43    -9.60    66.42     7.47     2.17     0.09     6.90     1.94P    0.58R    0.00  
Halifax            22   26   -5       0.51    53.95     1.01    53.92     6.76   -11.57     0.00     0.07     0.01P   15.46R    0.31  
Aldershot          24   25  -19      -3.99    28.79   -13.60    52.55     6.62   -22.29     0.00     0.02     0.00P   22.83R    0.57  
Bromley            23   24   -8      -6.15    19.12    -5.76    54.45     7.00    -9.95     0.00     0.13     0.02P   14.52R    0.31  
Havant_&_Wville    24   24   -9      -2.33    38.21     2.28    47.63     6.80   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.62R    2.37  
Chesterfield       23   23   -4     -11.34     5.33    -8.49    57.47     7.05     0.51     0.00     0.35     0.11P    6.68R    0.09  
Dover_Athletic     24   21  -18      -9.21     9.33   -14.00    49.72     6.70   -20.04     0.00     0.01     0.00    36.30R    1.55  
Maidenhead         23   21  -22      -2.95    33.94    -9.94    44.89     6.57   -34.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.47R    6.71  
Maidstone_United   23   19  -16      -4.95    23.06    -5.05    43.33     6.48   -26.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.57R    8.68  
Braintree_Town     24   14  -23      -6.97    14.45    -3.95    32.32     6.19   -41.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.62R   79.32