Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 16 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 10 December 2018, Everton 2 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        16   42  +28       8.56    96.14     8.48    88.58     6.10    54.83    22.42    73.74    91.49    97.76    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   41  +36       3.32    76.14     5.66    94.00     5.39    77.99    73.19    94.68    98.86    99.77   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        16   36  +14       5.03    82.39    -0.69    81.16     6.22    38.31     2.97    18.76    56.47    82.43    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   34  +20       2.71    68.59     4.95    77.26     6.35    40.67     0.88     7.95    30.53    63.64    99.34     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   34  +15       4.47    79.12     2.40    75.63     6.43    33.88     0.53     4.72    21.28    50.31    98.83     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          16   26   +2      -2.61    31.43    -8.06    65.66     6.50    16.56     0.01     0.15     1.34     5.92    81.52     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   24   +4       0.32    52.49     2.01    52.77     6.64     0.70     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     7.30     0.09R    0.01  
Bournemouth      16   23   -1       2.99    71.12     3.73    49.40     6.48    -8.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     2.74     0.31R    0.01  
Leicester        16   22   +1      -0.72    45.32     0.31    50.44     6.51    -3.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.84     0.21R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    16   22   -2       3.52    74.67     3.73    47.90     6.55    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.79     0.64R    0.03  
West_Ham         16   21   -2       1.80    63.54     3.77    49.49     6.67    -6.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.97     0.45R    0.02  
Watford          16   21   -3       2.97    71.61     3.95    46.42     6.39   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.06     1.08R    0.06  
Brighton         16   21   -3       2.48    68.57     2.81    45.19     6.30   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.70     1.49R    0.08  
Cardiff          16   14  -15      -1.03    43.43    -2.25    34.02     6.17   -32.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    37.18R    8.09  
Newcastle        16   13   -9      -5.59    14.99    -3.59    38.89     6.32   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    11.97R    1.61  
Crystal_Palace   16   12  -10      -5.94    13.26    -3.53    36.90     6.27   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    19.47R    3.09  
Burnley          16   12  -17      -5.53    15.00    -9.64    34.02     6.11   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    36.24R    7.45  
Huddersfield     16   10  -17      -2.65    30.05    -1.30    27.78     5.66   -37.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.27R   34.85  
Southampton      16    9  -17      -7.67     6.42    -7.64    33.01     6.32   -27.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    41.67R   10.44  
Fulham           16    9  -24      -4.31    19.60    -5.08    28.41     6.30   -44.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.93R   34.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Birmingham 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         21   43  +14      10.54    94.04     8.52    81.42     7.45    20.12    22.99    41.30    84.43    50.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   42  +17       8.92    90.72    10.56    81.32     7.41    24.43    23.36    41.57    85.04    51.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       21   37  +10       5.36    78.59     5.78    74.90     7.43    15.36     6.01    14.25    56.46    23.52P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   37   +7       3.36    68.89    -0.16    77.16     7.35    15.85     9.47    21.03    67.98    32.87P    0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       21   36  +14      -1.19    42.49     0.86    80.23     7.53    29.55    20.49    37.91    82.13    51.81P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   21   36   +9       1.48    58.92     0.78    77.62     7.20    19.59    10.15    22.75    71.40    37.18P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   34  +10       4.54    75.30     9.05    68.43     7.46    10.07     1.13     3.18    24.43     7.13P    0.07R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   32   +9      -2.78    33.85    -0.15    73.03     7.54    19.28     4.17    10.43    48.72    21.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      21   30   +5       4.50    75.94     9.93    59.87     7.16    -1.47     0.03     0.15     3.52     0.68P    1.56R    0.07  
Stoke           21   30   +2      -2.38    36.48    -3.27    68.05     7.60     7.65     0.93     2.93    23.27     8.35P    0.13R    0.00  
Blackburn       21   30   -4       2.54    65.11    -1.87    62.86     7.55    -6.38     0.17     0.57     7.72     1.96P    1.00R    0.04  
Swansea         21   29   +2      -3.14    32.15    -3.05    67.97     7.53     8.94     0.84     2.68    22.77     8.26P    0.13R    0.00  
Bristol_City    21   29   +1      -0.28    48.93     0.42    63.35     7.37     0.99     0.16     0.68     8.73     2.38P    0.54R    0.03  
QPR             21   28   -6       2.57    65.92    -0.54    57.96     7.20   -12.98     0.01     0.06     1.82     0.36P    3.60R    0.21  
Preston         21   25   -3      -3.63    29.71    -2.59    60.10     7.46    -1.96     0.05     0.19     3.87     0.96P    2.12R    0.13  
Wigan           21   25   -6      -3.49    30.70    -5.66    59.45     7.51    -5.64     0.03     0.16     3.15     0.84P    2.68R    0.17  
Sheff_Wed       21   24  -11      -2.66    35.01    -7.43    55.12     7.34   -16.25     0.00     0.02     0.82     0.15P    8.35R    0.82  
Brentford       21   22   +1      -8.28    10.96    -0.98    58.99     7.55     4.97     0.03     0.14     3.27     0.89P    2.86R    0.25  
Hull            21   21   -9      -5.64    20.27    -5.53    52.71     7.27   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P   13.47R    1.65  
Rotherham       21   21  -11      -0.25    49.96     1.16    46.39     7.14   -25.29     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   43.02R    9.67  
Millwall        21   19   -9      -7.17    13.60    -4.85    49.71     7.24   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   23.83R    3.62  
Reading         21   18   -8      -6.17    17.33    -0.26    46.48     7.20   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   40.41R    8.41  
Bolton          21   18  -14      -1.81    39.67    -0.78    41.46     6.67   -29.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.31R   25.31  
Ipswich         21   11  -20     -11.19     3.07    -9.94    37.68     6.98   -31.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.92R   49.62  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 December 2018, Portsmouth 1 2 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           21   47  +18      12.79    97.14    10.08    85.57     7.44    24.24    18.56    42.59    93.29    53.81P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                21   41  +20       5.51    78.39     9.86    83.33     7.69    32.11    12.86    33.39    89.09    48.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.76    71.48     5.18    91.33     7.85    43.15    53.01    74.46    98.31    82.51P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         21   39  +12       5.54    78.72     5.11    78.92     7.59    20.41     4.55    14.58    74.07    28.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton             21   37   +9       4.56    74.89     3.66    76.67     7.49    16.92     2.41     8.77    63.70    22.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             20   35  +14      -0.04    48.94     2.59    80.46     7.84    28.68     7.65    21.42    80.27    40.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   35   +8       4.61    75.24     5.75    71.87     7.51    11.65     0.56     2.56    37.47     9.81P    0.08R    0.00  
Blackpool            20   34   +6       4.59    75.93     3.02    70.08     7.56     6.69     0.34     1.67    28.12     7.19P    0.16R    0.00  
Wycombe              21   31   +2       4.96    76.82     6.47    62.53     7.53    -2.53     0.02     0.14     6.50     1.20P    2.81R    0.07  
Walsall              21   30   -6       4.30    74.58    -1.34    60.56     7.31   -11.62     0.00     0.05     3.37     0.60P    4.85R    0.15  
Coventry             21   29   -3       3.78    71.83     1.81    58.67     7.31    -9.51     0.00     0.02     2.05     0.35P    7.56R    0.38  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.64    71.56     2.38    59.32     7.61    -8.50     0.01     0.05     2.78     0.49P    7.15R    0.28  
Fleetwood_Town       21   27   +5      -2.78    34.27     3.70    63.22     7.49     7.92     0.02     0.13     8.01     1.81P    2.04R    0.07  
Burton_Albion        20   27   -2      -0.57    47.05    -2.18    60.67     7.75    -5.14     0.01     0.11     4.42     1.08P    5.21R    0.22  
Southend             21   26   -3      -1.89    39.64    -1.46    60.03     7.42    -3.49     0.00     0.03     3.20     0.72P    5.35R    0.25  
Gillingham           21   24   -3      -2.95    33.72     0.18    56.26     7.43    -6.56     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.25P   13.03R    0.88  
Shrewsbury           21   24   -3      -5.11    22.16    -3.60    58.86     7.38    -2.11     0.00     0.02     2.38     0.52P    6.72R    0.29  
Rochdale             21   24  -11      -1.22    43.77    -5.08    54.91     7.38   -16.81     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.11P   18.84R    1.57  
Oxford_Utd           21   22   -6      -5.31    21.68    -3.26    54.37     7.46    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.12P   19.33R    1.74  
Scunthorpe           21   21  -15      -6.73    16.07   -12.79    54.05     7.53   -17.58     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.13P   22.22R    2.31  
Bristol_Rovers       21   17   -8      -8.97     8.41    -3.78    46.54     7.23   -15.07     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   57.99R   11.92  
Plymouth             21   17  -16      -6.57    15.82    -7.50    45.45     7.32   -25.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   65.70R   17.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   15  -16      -7.28    11.89    -6.78    41.23     6.91   -27.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.98R   35.45  
Bradford             21   15  -21      -7.98    10.44   -12.04    43.07     7.18   -30.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.98R   27.38  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Bury 2 0 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          21   43  +19       4.20    73.36     4.25    88.55     7.30    35.36    48.59    85.37    98.99    89.89P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   41  +18       8.16    89.52     9.92    84.66     7.52    29.94    25.14    70.23    96.19    77.10P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       21   38  +15       3.61    70.40     6.74    77.44     7.31    22.68     5.77    31.01    81.61    44.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             21   36  +19      -1.70    39.67     5.33    79.87     7.58    33.64    10.86    46.88    88.47    60.35P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        20   35  +15       1.86    61.02     6.69    78.53     7.43    26.63     7.38    38.41    85.05    52.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   21   35   -2       7.54    87.16     0.27    66.35     7.31    -6.56     0.21     2.66    24.45     6.03P    0.05R    0.00  
Tranmere         21   34   +6       5.29    78.44     6.04    67.44     7.49     4.72     0.36     3.95    30.91     8.91P    0.05R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   33   +9       5.02    77.92    10.36    66.23     7.28     7.49     0.19     2.59    26.02     6.50P    0.05R    0.00  
Exeter           21   31   +6      -1.62    40.51     0.26    69.74     7.43    12.61     0.60     6.79    44.07    16.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        21   31   +0       2.08    63.02    -0.14    64.46     7.34    -1.14     0.09     1.52    18.12     4.57P    0.12R    0.00  
Swindon          21   30   -4       0.49    53.36    -5.10    65.85     7.37    -1.75     0.14     2.15    23.16     6.56P    0.12R    0.00  
Oldham           21   29   +7      -5.31    21.84    -1.18    69.06     7.52    15.56     0.58     6.27    41.81    16.77P    0.03R    0.00  
Carlisle         21   27   -2      -2.42    36.12    -2.91    62.08     7.36    -0.63     0.03     0.75    11.48     3.01P    0.42R    0.03  
Northampton      21   26   -2      -3.92    28.62    -3.72    62.10     7.64     0.75     0.04     0.79    12.62     3.61P    0.60R    0.07  
Port_Vale        21   26   -3      -0.62    46.92    -0.26    59.61     7.27    -3.84     0.01     0.28     6.24     1.39P    1.05R    0.13  
Crawley_Town     20   26   -4       1.12    57.67    -0.03    58.16     7.42    -9.60     0.00     0.21     4.68     0.96P    1.93R    0.29  
Crewe            21   25   -5      -1.31    42.98    -1.33    55.90     7.20   -10.05     0.00     0.05     2.33     0.41P    3.10R    0.41  
Grimsby          21   22   -9      -1.25    43.06    -1.14    50.26     6.99   -17.46     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P   13.52R    2.51  
Morecambe        21   22  -13      -0.97    45.09    -4.50    48.91     6.91   -23.80     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   19.06R    3.77  
Yeovil           19   21   +0      -3.09    31.54     2.92    55.06     7.64    -4.45     0.00     0.07     2.47     0.50P    4.77R    0.82  
Cheltenham       20   20  -11      -3.32    30.87    -4.46    50.57     7.40   -18.81     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.09P   13.77R    2.84  
Cambridge_Utd    21   19  -16      -5.43    19.93    -9.67    49.39     7.19   -21.68     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   17.79R    3.71  
Notts_County     21   16  -21      -8.65     8.70   -14.19    46.15     7.23   -27.60     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   33.18R    8.81  
Macclesfield     21   13  -22      -4.33    23.97    -4.16    34.30     6.58   -42.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.37R   76.60  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Barrow 1 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      24   50  +30       6.82    83.53    14.80    89.97     6.60    44.70    52.52    96.97    66.97P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       24   49  +26       8.73    87.82    14.72    85.22     7.03    35.18    21.95    87.41    39.18P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     24   46  +19       8.71    87.40    12.23    80.49     7.17    25.70     7.86    67.93    20.66P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            23   46  +16       9.66    91.93     8.94    81.52     6.73    22.08     8.64    72.79    24.47P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     23   44  +13      11.50    95.00    11.42    76.12     6.83    14.37     2.01    40.96     8.87P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          24   42  +20       1.22    56.73     8.04    79.46     6.71    31.00     5.38    64.93    23.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          23   39   +9       4.46    74.22     4.24    74.42     6.90    14.81     1.06    32.60     8.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      23   37   +4       4.00    71.70     1.72    70.87     6.94     7.74     0.37    16.43     3.75P    0.05R    0.00  
Eastleigh          24   36   -1       4.92    75.59     1.40    65.45     6.71    -1.97     0.04     3.93     0.75P    0.39R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   24   34   +5      -0.26    48.97     2.61    66.38     6.75     8.50     0.06     5.66     1.30P    0.21R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       23   31   -1      -1.18    43.53    -2.48    63.28     6.81     0.63     0.01     2.23     0.47P    0.97R    0.00  
Barrow             24   31   -2      -0.54    47.36    -0.35    57.73     6.57    -6.63     0.00     0.27     0.04P    5.19R    0.02  
Hartlepool         24   31   -6      -0.40    48.22    -4.12    58.89     6.49    -8.90     0.00     0.37     0.06P    3.61R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          24   28   -4      -6.19    19.50    -6.23    58.10     6.74    -4.04     0.00     0.33     0.06P    5.23R    0.05  
Barnet             21   28   -4      -4.25    26.52    -9.40    66.28     7.47     2.00     0.09     6.64     1.94P    0.59R    0.00  
Halifax            22   26   -5       0.46    53.79     0.92    53.95     6.78   -11.50     0.00     0.08     0.01P   15.51R    0.25  
Aldershot          24   25  -19      -4.00    28.75   -13.59    52.57     6.61   -22.30     0.00     0.03     0.00P   22.66R    0.57  
Bromley            23   24   -8      -6.18    18.88    -5.77    54.46     6.97    -9.91     0.00     0.08     0.02P   14.52R    0.28  
Havant_&_Wville    24   24   -9      -2.41    37.95     2.23    47.72     6.88   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.36R    2.31  
Chesterfield       23   23   -4     -11.48     5.12    -8.64    57.66     7.00     0.75     0.00     0.34     0.09P    6.23R    0.10  
Dover_Athletic     24   21  -18      -9.35     9.03   -14.23    49.89     6.69   -19.74     0.00     0.00     0.00P   35.24R    1.55  
Maidenhead         23   21  -22      -2.69    35.41    -9.62    44.75     6.52   -34.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.34R    6.89  
Maidstone_United   23   19  -16      -4.85    23.48    -4.91    43.20     6.53   -26.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.16R    8.98  
Braintree_Town     24   14  -23      -6.92    14.56    -3.95    32.29     6.14   -41.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.74R   78.98