Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 15 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 10 December 2018, Everton 2 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        16   42  +28       8.52    96.17     8.44    88.64     6.08    54.97    22.93    74.38    91.50    97.84    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   41  +36       3.32    76.26     5.66    93.97     5.40    77.94    72.77    94.48    98.75    99.79   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        16   36  +14       4.98    82.28    -0.74    81.20     6.15    38.31     2.96    18.67    56.92    82.61    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   34  +20       2.68    68.49     4.84    77.27     6.30    40.77     0.84     7.49    30.53    63.77    99.35     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   34  +15       4.61    79.84     2.53    75.61     6.45    33.84     0.49     4.83    21.03    49.97    98.72     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          16   26   +2      -2.58    31.70    -8.04    65.70     6.44    16.60     0.00     0.16     1.25     5.86    81.72     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   24   +4       0.30    52.17     1.91    52.89     6.61     0.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     7.47     0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth      16   23   -1       2.84    69.91     3.45    49.57     6.54    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.76     0.27R    0.01  
Leicester        16   22   +1      -0.78    44.85     0.24    50.46     6.55    -3.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     3.86     0.23R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    16   22   -2       3.48    74.16     3.73    47.86     6.59    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.72     0.70R    0.03  
West_Ham         16   21   -2       1.93    64.55     3.94    49.45     6.63    -6.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.88     0.41R    0.01  
Watford          16   21   -3       2.96    71.31     4.01    46.38     6.36   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.95     1.09R    0.05  
Brighton         16   21   -3       2.47    68.41     2.83    45.10     6.26   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62     1.54R    0.07  
Cardiff          16   14  -15      -0.99    43.71    -2.12    33.93     6.18   -32.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    37.84R    8.01  
Newcastle        16   13   -9      -5.64    14.60    -3.62    38.90     6.27   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    11.69R    1.67  
Crystal_Palace   16   12  -10      -5.92    13.39    -3.49    36.83     6.31   -19.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    19.67R    3.07  
Burnley          16   12  -17      -5.49    14.75    -9.58    34.01     6.14   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.93R    7.61  
Huddersfield     16   10  -17      -2.64    30.25    -1.26    27.71     5.68   -37.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.59R   35.28  
Southampton      16    9  -17      -7.61     6.47    -7.57    33.04     6.29   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.08R   10.40  
Fulham           16    9  -24      -4.33    19.68    -5.17    28.39     6.26   -44.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.89R   33.78  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Birmingham 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         21   43  +14      10.68    94.20     8.69    81.30     7.50    19.94    22.72    40.66    83.81    49.42P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   42  +17       9.01    91.03    10.71    81.24     7.45    24.35    23.27    41.50    84.60    51.07P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       21   37  +10       5.24    77.88     5.62    75.01     7.40    15.56     6.18    14.48    57.26    23.66P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   37   +7       3.31    68.73    -0.30    77.30     7.36    16.01     9.82    21.59    68.41    33.61P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       21   36  +14      -1.20    42.59     0.94    80.22     7.56    29.48    20.53    38.30    81.80    51.80P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   21   36   +9       1.53    59.36     0.81    77.58     7.17    19.52    10.05    22.32    71.19    36.99P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   34  +10       4.61    75.58     9.18    68.29     7.40     9.89     0.92     2.95    23.89     6.81P    0.06R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   32   +9      -2.72    34.13    -0.09    72.99     7.56    19.20     4.05    10.29    48.44    21.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      21   30   +5       4.47    75.92     9.84    59.94     7.20    -1.31     0.04     0.19     3.53     0.72P    1.54R    0.06  
Stoke           21   30   +2      -2.49    35.73    -3.47    68.18     7.61     7.89     0.98     3.03    23.82     8.46P    0.13R    0.01  
Blackburn       21   30   -4       2.74    66.29    -1.56    62.73     7.55    -6.60     0.15     0.57     7.50     1.89P    0.95R    0.04  
Swansea         21   29   +2      -3.26    31.50    -3.17    68.10     7.58     9.08     0.98     2.85    23.44     8.64P    0.14R    0.00  
Bristol_City    21   29   +1      -0.27    49.03     0.37    63.41     7.38     1.09     0.18     0.68     8.74     2.44P    0.53R    0.02  
QPR             21   28   -6       2.61    65.80    -0.45    57.91     7.18   -13.06     0.02     0.07     1.76     0.32P    3.77R    0.26  
Preston         21   25   -3      -3.62    29.86    -2.58    60.12     7.45    -1.92     0.05     0.20     3.95     1.00P    2.03R    0.14  
Wigan           21   25   -6      -3.51    30.58    -5.71    59.40     7.48    -5.72     0.02     0.12     3.16     0.78P    2.61R    0.18  
Sheff_Wed       21   24  -11      -2.56    35.67    -7.25    54.98     7.31   -16.46     0.01     0.03     0.76     0.16P    8.51R    0.82  
Brentford       21   22   +1      -8.42    10.47    -1.14    59.00     7.54     4.98     0.02     0.16     3.46     1.08P    2.84R    0.22  
Hull            21   21   -9      -5.65    20.42    -5.56    52.70     7.28   -13.44     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.08P   13.51R    1.65  
Rotherham       21   21  -11      -0.20    50.12     1.20    46.42     7.16   -25.31     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   43.08R    9.56  
Millwall        21   19   -9      -7.15    14.02    -4.84    49.65     7.24   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   23.97R    3.86  
Reading         21   18   -8      -6.17    17.04    -0.25    46.47     7.19   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   40.25R    8.60  
Bolton          21   18  -14      -1.83    39.59    -0.76    41.47     6.62   -29.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   71.56R   25.47  
Ipswich         21   11  -20     -11.39     2.86   -10.24    37.84     6.97   -31.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.52R   49.09  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 December 2018, Portsmouth 1 2 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           21   47  +18      12.88    97.29    10.24    85.41     7.43    24.01    18.09    41.73    93.08    53.16P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                21   41  +20       5.49    78.70     9.82    83.41     7.62    32.22    12.89    33.54    89.42    48.73P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.69    71.19     5.02    91.44     7.87    43.35    53.64    74.82    98.26    82.79P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         21   39  +12       5.49    78.61     5.02    78.89     7.54    20.38     4.45    14.34    74.12    28.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Charlton             21   37   +9       4.56    74.94     3.69    76.61     7.45    16.87     2.14     8.26    63.41    21.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             20   35  +14      -0.24    47.88     2.30    80.65     7.81    28.95     7.73    22.32    81.11    41.26P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            21   35   +8       4.67    75.34     5.79    71.73     7.54    11.48     0.58     2.59    36.58     9.91P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackpool            20   34   +6       4.54    75.44     2.97    70.09     7.58     6.71     0.40     1.83    28.20     7.37P    0.14R    0.00  
Wycombe              21   31   +2       5.07    77.42     6.63    62.48     7.56    -2.63     0.02     0.14     6.41     1.20P    2.90R    0.11  
Walsall              21   30   -6       4.08    73.44    -1.66    60.80     7.25   -11.29     0.00     0.04     3.46     0.59P    4.48R    0.17  
Coventry             21   29   -3       3.83    72.06     1.87    58.60     7.31    -9.60     0.00     0.02     1.94     0.33P    7.78R    0.28  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.55    71.03     2.23    59.36     7.62    -8.35     0.00     0.03     2.86     0.52P    7.09R    0.34  
Fleetwood_Town       21   27   +5      -2.86    34.12     3.59    63.33     7.51     8.06     0.03     0.17     8.18     1.97P    1.98R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        20   27   -2      -0.51    47.50    -2.11    60.65     7.80    -5.20     0.01     0.09     4.64     1.08P    5.27R    0.23  
Southend             21   26   -3      -1.78    40.01    -1.29    59.95     7.46    -3.61     0.01     0.03     3.20     0.72P    5.31R    0.22  
Gillingham           21   24   -3      -2.95    33.75     0.20    56.32     7.43    -6.43     0.00     0.00     1.20     0.22P   12.75R    0.86  
Shrewsbury           21   24   -3      -5.00    22.85    -3.44    58.72     7.38    -2.30     0.00     0.02     2.21     0.51P    6.85R    0.35  
Rochdale             21   24  -11      -1.24    43.81    -5.10    54.99     7.40   -16.71     0.00     0.01     0.61     0.10P   18.39R    1.63  
Oxford_Utd           21   22   -6      -5.14    22.43    -2.98    54.17     7.46    -9.46     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.12P   20.00R    1.87  
Scunthorpe           21   21  -15      -6.76    16.11   -12.87    54.14     7.51   -17.49     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.08P   21.73R    2.18  
Bristol_Rovers       21   17   -8      -8.92     8.36    -3.70    46.44     7.21   -15.24     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   58.43R   11.85  
Plymouth             21   17  -16      -6.54    15.91    -7.45    45.47     7.26   -25.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   65.37R   16.69  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   15  -16      -7.28    12.02    -6.72    41.19     6.88   -27.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.30R   36.13  
Bradford             21   15  -21      -8.01    10.43   -12.05    43.10     7.15   -30.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.14R   27.04  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Bury 2 0 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          21   43  +19       4.41    74.71     4.59    88.31     7.35    34.96    47.81    84.22    98.86    89.13P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   41  +18       8.15    89.72     9.89    84.59     7.47    29.83    25.26    69.99    96.24    76.84P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       21   38  +15       3.47    69.88     6.50    77.62     7.28    22.91     5.93    32.14    82.34    45.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             21   36  +19      -1.69    39.66     5.33    79.77     7.53    33.50    11.08    46.38    88.42    60.01P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        20   35  +15       1.73    60.25     6.50    78.61     7.43    26.77     7.62    38.53    85.08    52.35P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   21   35   -2       7.63    87.60     0.40    66.33     7.36    -6.56     0.24     2.75    24.49     5.95P    0.06R    0.00  
Tranmere         21   34   +6       5.34    78.44     6.11    67.48     7.52     4.75     0.36     4.08    31.19     9.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   33   +9       5.06    77.80    10.36    66.09     7.33     7.32     0.22     2.74    25.22     6.54P    0.04R    0.00  
Exeter           21   31   +6      -1.64    40.16     0.20    69.72     7.39    12.59     0.64     6.68    43.66    16.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        21   31   +0       1.99    61.98    -0.31    64.64     7.36    -0.84     0.10     1.70    18.77     4.95P    0.17R    0.01  
Swindon          21   30   -4       0.53    53.22    -5.02    65.82     7.40    -1.82     0.13     2.16    23.07     6.40P    0.15R    0.01  
Oldham           21   29   +7      -5.38    21.43    -1.32    69.13     7.52    15.67     0.52     6.44    41.86    17.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle         21   27   -2      -2.54    35.33    -3.04    62.14     7.37    -0.50     0.03     0.76    11.61     3.13P    0.46R    0.04  
Northampton      21   26   -2      -3.92    28.64    -3.69    62.14     7.65     0.78     0.04     0.84    12.65     3.67P    0.53R    0.07  
Port_Vale        21   26   -3      -0.62    46.84    -0.20    59.56     7.19    -3.90     0.01     0.25     5.97     1.37P    0.98R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     20   26   -4       1.04    57.10    -0.14    58.23     7.47    -9.46     0.00     0.22     4.67     0.94P    1.91R    0.29  
Crewe            21   25   -5      -1.43    42.17    -1.46    56.02     7.27    -9.80     0.00     0.05     2.39     0.46P    3.03R    0.41  
Grimsby          21   22   -9      -1.31    43.20    -1.22    50.33     7.03   -17.34     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P   13.40R    2.51  
Morecambe        21   22  -13      -0.90    45.68    -4.40    48.88     6.94   -23.83     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   19.06R    3.64  
Yeovil           19   21   +0      -3.01    32.17     3.06    55.02     7.59    -4.55     0.00     0.08     2.34     0.49P    4.62R    0.71  
Cheltenham       20   20  -11      -3.40    30.23    -4.61    50.64     7.37   -18.69     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P   13.59R    2.73  
Cambridge_Utd    21   19  -16      -5.22    20.85    -9.40    49.21     7.13   -21.91     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   18.15R    3.83  
Notts_County     21   16  -21      -8.60     9.03   -14.11    46.11     7.26   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   33.40R    8.58  
Macclesfield     21   13  -22      -4.26    24.30    -4.03    34.21     6.65   -42.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.39R   77.05  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Barrow 1 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      24   50  +30       6.73    83.25    14.65    90.08     6.59    44.84    53.29    97.09    67.74P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       24   49  +26       8.91    88.30    15.02    85.03     7.01    34.89    21.28    86.59    38.16P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     24   46  +19       8.62    87.21    12.07    80.54     7.14    25.79     7.74    68.27    20.70P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            23   46  +16       9.64    92.16     8.93    81.58     6.73    22.17     8.54    72.92    24.61P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     23   44  +13      11.50    95.13    11.37    76.10     6.87    14.32     2.05    40.77     9.09P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          24   42  +20       1.27    56.70     8.15    79.45     6.75    30.93     5.49    64.62    22.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          23   39   +9       4.57    74.45     4.42    74.34     6.94    14.70     1.10    32.36     8.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      23   37   +4       3.90    71.30     1.61    70.96     6.99     7.86     0.35    16.91     3.68P    0.05R    0.00  
Eastleigh          24   36   -1       4.90    75.56     1.36    65.41     6.70    -2.02     0.03     3.83     0.72P    0.38R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   24   34   +5      -0.37    48.08     2.49    66.51     6.69     8.70     0.02     5.78     1.30P    0.18R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       23   31   -1      -1.19    43.46    -2.52    63.36     6.81     0.73     0.01     2.26     0.51P    0.82R    0.00  
Barrow             24   31   -2      -0.51    47.84    -0.24    57.68     6.58    -6.71     0.00     0.24     0.04P    5.39R    0.03  
Hartlepool         24   31   -6      -0.34    48.70    -3.98    58.85     6.56    -8.98     0.00     0.42     0.07P    3.75R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red          24   28   -4      -6.37    18.66    -6.48    58.17     6.69    -3.92     0.00     0.35     0.09P    4.76R    0.05  
Barnet             21   28   -4      -4.33    26.07    -9.50    66.40     7.52     2.17     0.11     7.03     2.05P    0.54R    0.00  
Halifax            22   26   -5       0.48    54.04     0.98    53.96     6.77   -11.48     0.00     0.09     0.01P   15.42R    0.26  
Aldershot          24   25  -19      -4.04    28.39   -13.67    52.70     6.64   -22.06     0.00     0.02     0.00P   21.90R    0.54  
Bromley            23   24   -8      -6.13    18.96    -5.74    54.40     7.00    -9.99     0.00     0.10     0.01P   14.76R    0.33  
Havant_&_Wville    24   24   -9      -2.42    37.97     2.11    47.60     6.83   -19.68     0.00     0.01     0.00    48.67R    2.37  
Chesterfield       23   23   -4     -11.41     5.22    -8.60    57.54     7.02     0.59     0.00     0.34     0.07P    6.57R    0.11  
Dover_Athletic     24   21  -18      -9.09     9.63   -13.87    49.70     6.72   -20.03     0.00     0.00     0.00P   36.17R    1.53  
Maidenhead         23   21  -22      -2.79    35.04    -9.73    44.75     6.54   -34.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.35R    6.64  
Maidstone_United   23   19  -16      -4.93    23.19    -5.03    43.33     6.50   -26.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.67R    8.60  
Braintree_Town     24   14  -23      -6.88    15.01    -3.80    32.23     6.17   -41.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.64R   79.51