Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 14 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 10 December 2018, Everton 2 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        16   42  +28       8.51    96.27     8.39    88.63     6.09    55.06    22.93    74.36    91.29    97.59    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   41  +36       3.32    76.51     5.64    93.96     5.38    77.87    72.62    94.44    98.87    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        16   36  +14       4.90    81.88    -0.85    81.25     6.13    38.42     3.07    18.56    56.97    82.72    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   34  +20       2.73    68.99     4.96    77.21     6.33    40.65     0.90     7.43    29.95    63.32    99.32     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   34  +15       4.52    79.19     2.41    75.73     6.43    34.00     0.47     5.10    21.69    50.77    98.85     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          16   26   +2      -2.51    31.99    -7.91    65.53     6.45    16.35     0.00     0.11     1.21     5.64    81.26     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   24   +4       0.25    51.89     1.86    52.94     6.65     1.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     7.67     0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth      16   23   -1       2.80    69.66     3.40    49.57     6.51    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.75     0.26R    0.02  
Leicester        16   22   +1      -0.70    45.20     0.40    50.38     6.52    -3.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.75     0.25R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    16   22   -2       3.57    74.61     3.86    47.79     6.58   -10.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.72     0.72R    0.02  
West_Ham         16   21   -2       1.83    63.61     3.79    49.53     6.68    -6.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.02     0.44R    0.03  
Watford          16   21   -3       2.99    71.97     4.02    46.33     6.35   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.04     1.09R    0.04  
Brighton         16   21   -3       2.40    68.03     2.78    45.13     6.30   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.68     1.53R    0.09  
Cardiff          16   14  -15      -0.94    44.11    -2.09    33.95     6.19   -32.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.83R    8.18  
Newcastle        16   13   -9      -5.62    14.70    -3.61    38.87     6.27   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    11.89R    1.61  
Crystal_Palace   16   12  -10      -5.99    13.11    -3.59    36.95     6.34   -19.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    19.28R    3.04  
Burnley          16   12  -17      -5.50    14.57    -9.57    34.04     6.13   -30.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.95R    7.56  
Huddersfield     16   10  -17      -2.61    30.03    -1.24    27.73     5.63   -37.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.64R   34.93  
Southampton      16    9  -17      -7.64     6.25    -7.61    33.13     6.31   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.79R    9.94  
Fulham           16    9  -24      -4.26    19.87    -5.03    28.34     6.26   -44.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.29R   34.53  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Birmingham 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         21   43  +14      10.43    93.80     8.35    81.50     7.50    20.25    23.06    41.48    84.56    50.27P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   42  +17       9.02    91.02    10.69    81.25     7.44    24.33    22.79    41.33    84.58    50.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       21   37  +10       5.23    77.85     5.62    75.04     7.43    15.55     6.16    14.56    57.27    23.71P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   37   +7       3.27    68.39    -0.33    77.31     7.39    16.07    10.04    21.50    68.61    33.45P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       21   36  +14      -1.10    42.92     1.04    80.15     7.60    29.36    20.42    37.75    81.45    51.74P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   21   36   +9       1.43    58.60     0.71    77.62     7.23    19.62    10.24    22.74    71.42    37.41P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   34  +10       4.65    75.86     9.20    68.30     7.42     9.87     0.97     2.95    24.38     6.99P    0.09R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   32   +9      -2.73    34.20    -0.08    73.05     7.46    19.27     4.05    10.26    48.96    20.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      21   30   +5       4.47    75.58     9.88    59.94     7.19    -1.33     0.04     0.17     3.43     0.66P    1.67R    0.07  
Stoke           21   30   +2      -2.38    36.54    -3.28    68.13     7.56     7.80     0.92     2.82    23.39     8.09P    0.11R    0.00  
Blackburn       21   30   -4       2.50    64.81    -1.95    62.95     7.57    -6.24     0.15     0.55     7.67     1.95P    0.88R    0.03  
Swansea         21   29   +2      -3.00    33.06    -2.86    67.83     7.54     8.70     0.84     2.62    22.27     8.19P    0.16R    0.00  
Bristol_City    21   29   +1      -0.29    48.45     0.35    63.37     7.36     1.06     0.19     0.69     8.59     2.38P    0.64R    0.03  
QPR             21   28   -6       2.84    66.97    -0.08    57.68     7.24   -13.49     0.01     0.06     1.77     0.35P    4.01R    0.28  
Preston         21   25   -3      -3.65    29.72    -2.57    60.20     7.53    -1.84     0.05     0.22     4.23     1.09P    2.11R    0.11  
Wigan           21   25   -6      -3.40    30.96    -5.53    59.23     7.39    -5.93     0.02     0.12     2.84     0.75P    2.70R    0.19  
Sheff_Wed       21   24  -11      -2.69    34.98    -7.49    55.14     7.34   -16.23     0.01     0.02     0.78     0.17P    8.17R    0.80  
Brentford       21   22   +1      -8.39    10.68    -1.13    58.99     7.56     4.99     0.03     0.14     3.27     0.86P    2.93R    0.26  
Hull            21   21   -9      -5.67    20.11    -5.60    52.84     7.31   -13.30     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P   13.17R    1.72  
Rotherham       21   21  -11      -0.25    49.98     1.12    46.45     7.11   -25.10     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   42.93R    9.15  
Millwall        21   19   -9      -7.20    13.63    -4.90    49.69     7.22   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   24.09R    3.70  
Reading         21   18   -8      -6.26    17.00    -0.35    46.53     7.21   -17.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    40.05R    8.55  
Bolton          21   18  -14      -1.79    39.98    -0.65    41.36     6.70   -30.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.82R   25.84  
Ipswich         21   11  -20     -11.34     2.98   -10.17    37.79     7.01   -31.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.45R   49.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 December 2018, Portsmouth 1 2 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           21   47  +18      12.86    97.19    10.21    85.54     7.40    24.18    18.48    41.91    93.32    53.54P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                21   41  +20       5.41    78.14     9.75    83.38     7.73    32.16    13.10    33.85    89.09    49.05P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.82    71.85     5.17    91.30     7.85    43.18    53.01    74.38    98.29    82.39P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         21   39  +12       5.41    78.45     4.85    79.02     7.55    20.64     4.64    14.85    74.93    28.97P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             21   37   +9       4.53    74.59     3.68    76.75     7.45    17.00     2.35     8.77    64.24    21.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             20   35  +14       0.00    49.20     2.65    80.40     7.87    28.56     7.44    21.62    80.13    40.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   35   +8       4.75    75.89     5.94    71.67     7.49    11.38     0.56     2.47    36.27     9.30P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackpool            20   34   +6       4.69    76.53     3.19    69.93     7.56     6.49     0.34     1.56    27.72     6.82P    0.17R    0.00  
Wycombe              21   31   +2       4.88    76.67     6.32    62.63     7.50    -2.39     0.02     0.12     6.37     1.11P    2.64R    0.08  
Walsall              21   30   -6       4.20    74.12    -1.49    60.64     7.26   -11.52     0.01     0.04     3.34     0.62P    4.69R    0.17  
Coventry             21   29   -3       3.84    72.42     1.85    58.58     7.31    -9.63     0.00     0.02     2.03     0.32P    7.62R    0.37  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.48    70.83     2.13    59.53     7.65    -8.09     0.01     0.05     3.14     0.55P    6.73R    0.32  
Fleetwood_Town       21   27   +5      -2.94    33.32     3.50    63.37     7.45     8.08     0.02     0.16     8.08     2.04P    1.94R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        20   27   -2      -0.63    46.37    -2.26    60.82     7.74    -4.94     0.02     0.11     4.59     1.06P    5.04R    0.23  
Southend             21   26   -3      -1.85    39.84    -1.36    59.98     7.47    -3.58     0.01     0.05     3.33     0.69P    5.36R    0.22  
Gillingham           21   24   -3      -2.87    34.21     0.32    56.20     7.40    -6.66     0.00     0.01     1.17     0.19P   12.74R    0.82  
Shrewsbury           21   24   -3      -5.09    22.53    -3.55    58.80     7.33    -2.18     0.00     0.02     2.19     0.51P    6.72R    0.31  
Rochdale             21   24  -11      -1.32    43.35    -5.19    55.04     7.40   -16.60     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.12P   18.33R    1.45  
Oxford_Utd           21   22   -6      -5.21    22.32    -3.14    54.36     7.45    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.10P   19.37R    1.63  
Scunthorpe           21   21  -15      -6.63    16.66   -12.61    53.94     7.52   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.09P   22.52R    2.31  
Bristol_Rovers       21   17   -8      -8.96     8.32    -3.77    46.46     7.22   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   58.43R   12.07  
Plymouth             21   17  -16      -6.55    15.78    -7.48    45.35     7.24   -25.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   66.29R   16.85  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   15  -16      -7.24    12.16    -6.70    41.16     6.90   -27.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.20R   36.19  
Bradford             21   15  -21      -7.98    10.35   -12.00    43.06     7.16   -30.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   77.09R   26.92  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Bury 2 0 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          21   43  +19       4.35    74.02     4.48    88.34     7.33    35.04    47.19    84.64    98.87    89.14P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   41  +18       7.99    89.04     9.70    84.84     7.53    30.19    26.58    70.62    96.45    77.69P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       21   38  +15       3.57    70.31     6.65    77.59     7.31    22.90     5.87    32.10    82.24    45.01P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             21   36  +19      -1.66    39.81     5.41    79.77     7.53    33.52    10.80    46.48    88.29    60.19P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        20   35  +15       1.84    61.14     6.66    78.55     7.38    26.58     7.36    37.70    85.48    51.88P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   21   35   -2       7.48    87.01     0.15    66.50     7.26    -6.29     0.21     2.65    24.87     5.96P    0.06R    0.00  
Tranmere         21   34   +6       5.15    77.61     5.78    67.60     7.49     5.00     0.33     4.13    31.61     9.16P    0.03R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   33   +9       5.03    77.70    10.41    66.15     7.32     7.40     0.18     2.67    25.48     6.74P    0.06R    0.00  
Exeter           21   31   +6      -1.61    40.32     0.25    69.70     7.44    12.58     0.62     6.75    43.73    16.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Stevenage        21   31   +0       1.98    62.16    -0.32    64.60     7.33    -0.93     0.08     1.58    18.52     4.83P    0.15R    0.00  
Swindon          21   30   -4       0.57    53.75    -4.96    65.77     7.36    -1.85     0.16     2.22    22.42     6.35P    0.10R    0.00  
Oldham           21   29   +7      -5.29    21.73    -1.18    69.01     7.43    15.48     0.52     6.17    40.96    16.51P    0.03R    0.00  
Carlisle         21   27   -2      -2.56    35.25    -3.06    62.17     7.37    -0.45     0.03     0.77    11.74     3.22P    0.43R    0.03  
Northampton      21   26   -2      -4.04    28.12    -3.85    62.30     7.64     1.00     0.05     0.89    13.18     3.87P    0.48R    0.05  
Port_Vale        21   26   -3      -0.58    47.28    -0.18    59.59     7.18    -3.85     0.01     0.24     5.86     1.32P    0.96R    0.10  
Crawley_Town     20   26   -4       1.12    57.62    -0.04    58.18     7.41    -9.53     0.01     0.20     4.45     0.86P    1.78R    0.28  
Crewe            21   25   -5      -1.36    42.88    -1.37    55.97     7.26    -9.96     0.00     0.06     2.31     0.43P    3.13R    0.43  
Grimsby          21   22   -9      -1.33    42.84    -1.24    50.35     7.05   -17.32     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.05P   13.21R    2.46  
Morecambe        21   22  -13      -0.88    45.70    -4.33    48.79     6.93   -23.97     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   19.27R    3.86  
Yeovil           19   21   +0      -3.02    32.01     3.03    54.91     7.64    -4.68     0.00     0.10     2.37     0.55P    4.74R    0.75  
Cheltenham       20   20  -11      -3.34    30.56    -4.56    50.57     7.34   -18.79     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.07P   13.43R    2.60  
Cambridge_Utd    21   19  -16      -5.39    20.16    -9.60    49.34     7.13   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   17.36R    3.55  
Notts_County     21   16  -21      -8.49     9.29   -13.95    45.92     7.23   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   34.16R    8.80  
Macclesfield     21   13  -22      -4.15    24.89    -3.89    34.14     6.61   -42.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.57R   77.09  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Barrow 1 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      24   50  +30       6.79    83.21    14.72    90.04     6.61    44.77    52.86    97.21    67.45P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       24   49  +26       8.95    88.52    15.04    85.04     7.03    34.91    21.24    86.71    37.92P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     24   46  +19       8.53    86.86    11.92    80.63     7.15    25.87     8.01    68.64    21.06P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            23   46  +16       9.64    92.28     8.92    81.62     6.74    22.20     8.82    73.22    25.01P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     23   44  +13      11.54    95.10    11.43    76.10     6.82    14.34     1.87    40.68     8.62P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          24   42  +20       1.26    56.72     8.10    79.52     6.73    31.06     5.57    65.21    23.46P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          23   39   +9       4.57    74.49     4.45    74.29     6.91    14.64     1.09    31.90     7.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      23   37   +4       4.02    71.92     1.75    70.88     6.94     7.72     0.34    16.18     3.66P    0.03R    0.00  
Eastleigh          24   36   -1       4.91    75.65     1.40    65.40     6.67    -2.04     0.02     3.69     0.71P    0.35R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   24   34   +5      -0.48    47.71     2.33    66.60     6.70     8.79     0.04     5.70     1.29P    0.18R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       23   31   -1      -1.15    43.80    -2.44    63.21     6.83     0.54     0.01     2.09     0.48P    1.02R    0.00  
Barrow             24   31   -2      -0.55    47.33    -0.29    57.71     6.58    -6.66     0.00     0.30     0.06P    5.24R    0.03  
Hartlepool         24   31   -6      -0.21    49.12    -3.82    58.75     6.57    -9.11     0.00     0.37     0.06P    3.88R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red          24   28   -4      -6.22    19.39    -6.25    58.00     6.68    -4.15     0.00     0.31     0.08P    5.17R    0.04  
Barnet             21   28   -4      -4.39    25.77    -9.59    66.51     7.52     2.27     0.12     7.21     2.09P    0.56R    0.00  
Halifax            22   26   -5       0.39    53.26     0.86    53.97     6.83   -11.49     0.00     0.11     0.02P   15.70R    0.30  
Aldershot          24   25  -19      -3.88    29.44   -13.37    52.45     6.64   -22.45     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.09R    0.57  
Bromley            23   24   -8      -6.24    18.81    -5.90    54.55     7.03    -9.75     0.00     0.12     0.03P   14.27R    0.35  
Havant_&_Wville    24   24   -9      -2.42    37.75     2.18    47.69     6.80   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.26R    2.32  
Chesterfield       23   23   -4     -11.45     5.00    -8.67    57.54     6.99     0.60     0.00     0.33     0.09P    6.45R    0.11  
Dover_Athletic     24   21  -18      -9.35     8.95   -14.23    49.91     6.71   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.96R    1.45  
Maidenhead         23   21  -22      -2.83    34.62    -9.86    44.86     6.58   -34.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.82R    6.62  
Maidstone_United   23   19  -16      -4.86    23.41    -4.88    43.25     6.48   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.36R    8.74  
Braintree_Town     24   14  -23      -6.86    14.68    -3.81    32.21     6.17   -41.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.67R   79.45