Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 13 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 10 December 2018, Everton 2 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        16   42  +28       8.48    96.17     8.36    88.66     6.12    55.06    23.03    74.26    91.41    97.73    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   41  +36       3.30    76.34     5.60    93.99     5.37    77.97    72.72    94.64    98.92    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        16   36  +14       5.00    82.42    -0.70    81.15     6.17    38.26     2.97    18.24    56.48    82.42    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   34  +20       2.70    68.57     4.88    77.29     6.35    40.71     0.81     7.78    30.62    63.93    99.28     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   34  +15       4.60    79.91     2.55    75.65     6.48    33.92     0.48     4.90    21.34    50.24    98.79     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          16   26   +2      -2.59    31.68    -8.05    65.61     6.47    16.47     0.00     0.17     1.22     5.70    81.62     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   24   +4       0.28    52.07     1.91    52.88     6.63     0.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     7.50     0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth      16   23   -1       2.87    70.06     3.51    49.53     6.53    -8.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.85     0.31R    0.01  
Leicester        16   22   +1      -0.76    44.94     0.30    50.45     6.49    -3.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.69     0.18R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    16   22   -2       3.42    74.07     3.63    47.89     6.54    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.77     0.63R    0.02  
West_Ham         16   21   -2       1.93    64.52     3.96    49.38     6.65    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.88     0.46R    0.02  
Watford          16   21   -3       2.99    71.76     4.01    46.42     6.41   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.08     1.07R    0.03  
Brighton         16   21   -3       2.55    68.91     3.01    45.05     6.28   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61     1.66R    0.09  
Cardiff          16   14  -15      -0.96    44.20    -2.15    34.03     6.19   -32.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    37.21R    7.92  
Newcastle        16   13   -9      -5.60    14.58    -3.60    38.87     6.29   -16.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    11.99R    1.63  
Crystal_Palace   16   12  -10      -5.97    13.46    -3.58    36.82     6.31   -19.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    19.86R    3.10  
Burnley          16   12  -17      -5.52    14.66    -9.63    34.00     6.11   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    36.18R    7.40  
Huddersfield     16   10  -17      -2.64    30.10    -1.30    27.77     5.69   -37.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.27R   35.20  
Southampton      16    9  -17      -7.63     6.37    -7.60    33.07     6.32   -27.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.16R   10.31  
Fulham           16    9  -24      -4.35    19.36    -5.10    28.40     6.25   -44.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.96R   34.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Birmingham 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         21   43  +14      10.39    93.67     8.30    81.59     7.42    20.44    23.25    41.78    85.02    50.49P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   42  +17       8.94    90.98    10.58    81.31     7.44    24.45    23.13    41.47    84.82    51.22P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       21   37  +10       5.31    78.16     5.68    74.90     7.39    15.37     5.80    13.85    56.58    23.07P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   37   +7       3.36    68.85    -0.16    77.23     7.33    15.95     9.33    20.98    68.19    33.08P    0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       21   36  +14      -1.21    42.54     0.89    80.29     7.58    29.54    20.94    38.28    82.08    52.29P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   21   36   +9       1.48    58.66     0.75    77.61     7.25    19.57    10.27    22.84    71.05    37.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   34  +10       4.54    75.34     9.01    68.42     7.42    10.06     0.99     3.11    24.51     7.19P    0.08R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   32   +9      -2.79    33.92    -0.19    73.10     7.49    19.32     4.05    10.38    48.90    21.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      21   30   +5       4.48    75.58     9.89    59.87     7.20    -1.42     0.03     0.16     3.39     0.68P    1.73R    0.07  
Stoke           21   30   +2      -2.33    36.79    -3.21    67.98     7.65     7.59     0.98     2.85    22.91     8.13P    0.16R    0.00  
Blackburn       21   30   -4       2.68    65.78    -1.62    62.71     7.53    -6.63     0.17     0.56     7.38     1.81P    0.88R    0.04  
Swansea         21   29   +2      -3.07    32.79    -2.91    67.98     7.52     8.91     0.81     2.61    22.67     7.97P    0.13R    0.00  
Bristol_City    21   29   +1      -0.33    48.41     0.31    63.42     7.34     1.10     0.14     0.59     8.78     2.31P    0.56R    0.03  
QPR             21   28   -6       2.75    66.81    -0.27    57.75     7.19   -13.32     0.01     0.07     1.73     0.31P    3.83R    0.26  
Preston         21   25   -3      -3.67    29.38    -2.62    60.13     7.50    -1.94     0.03     0.17     4.09     1.04P    2.03R    0.13  
Wigan           21   25   -6      -3.39    31.31    -5.49    59.32     7.52    -5.83     0.03     0.15     3.26     0.85P    2.72R    0.22  
Sheff_Wed       21   24  -11      -2.64    35.16    -7.37    55.09     7.34   -16.29     0.00     0.03     0.78     0.19P    8.30R    0.82  
Brentford       21   22   +1      -8.41    10.45    -1.17    59.02     7.53     5.03     0.02     0.14     3.36     0.96P    2.74R    0.21  
Hull            21   21   -9      -5.70    20.27    -5.68    52.76     7.35   -13.39     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.09P   13.57R    1.69  
Rotherham       21   21  -11      -0.28    50.03     1.13    46.44     7.19   -25.19     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   42.88R    9.66  
Millwall        21   19   -9      -7.24    13.75    -4.96    49.76     7.28   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   23.74R    3.78  
Reading         21   18   -8      -6.10    17.75    -0.15    46.42     7.24   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   40.67R    8.90  
Bolton          21   18  -14      -1.79    39.99    -0.67    41.44     6.64   -29.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.61R   25.26  
Ipswich         21   11  -20     -11.29     3.07   -10.07    37.83     7.03   -31.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.37R   48.91  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 December 2018, Portsmouth 1 2 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           21   47  +18      12.76    97.26    10.02    85.60     7.43    24.30    18.37    42.18    93.36    54.00P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                21   41  +20       5.51    78.27     9.87    83.34     7.67    32.10    12.70    33.54    89.25    48.90P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.71    71.28     5.05    91.48     7.89    43.44    53.75    74.72    98.36    82.69P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         21   39  +12       5.50    78.73     5.05    78.84     7.59    20.36     4.31    13.90    73.88    27.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton             21   37   +9       4.52    74.61     3.62    76.73     7.44    16.98     2.28     8.56    64.28    21.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             20   35  +14      -0.23    48.09     2.30    80.66     7.79    28.97     7.63    22.23    81.40    41.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   35   +8       4.66    75.58     5.81    71.71     7.52    11.48     0.52     2.55    36.65     9.41P    0.11R    0.00  
Blackpool            20   34   +6       4.68    76.41     3.13    69.94     7.55     6.46     0.35     1.73    27.47     6.88P    0.16R    0.01  
Wycombe              21   31   +2       4.98    77.14     6.47    62.52     7.51    -2.53     0.02     0.12     6.41     1.11P    2.83R    0.10  
Walsall              21   30   -6       4.14    73.91    -1.53    60.63     7.26   -11.55     0.00     0.03     3.39     0.60P    4.59R    0.15  
Coventry             21   29   -3       3.73    71.63     1.74    58.75     7.27    -9.36     0.00     0.03     2.06     0.36P    7.29R    0.29  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.57    71.39     2.29    59.38     7.58    -8.35     0.01     0.07     2.78     0.53P    6.95R    0.32  
Fleetwood_Town       21   27   +5      -2.89    33.53     3.59    63.32     7.43     8.01     0.03     0.17     7.84     1.86P    1.91R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        20   27   -2      -0.64    46.61    -2.31    60.80     7.73    -4.97     0.01     0.10     4.60     1.09P    4.87R    0.21  
Southend             21   26   -3      -1.81    40.01    -1.35    59.92     7.40    -3.63     0.01     0.02     3.07     0.63P    5.37R    0.24  
Gillingham           21   24   -3      -2.91    34.14     0.23    56.25     7.43    -6.59     0.00     0.01     1.16     0.24P   12.92R    0.87  
Shrewsbury           21   24   -3      -4.94    23.28    -3.34    58.63     7.39    -2.43     0.00     0.02     2.20     0.51P    7.16R    0.34  
Rochdale             21   24  -11      -1.25    43.34    -5.11    54.95     7.44   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.13P   18.76R    1.68  
Oxford_Utd           21   22   -6      -5.16    22.05    -3.03    54.24     7.41    -9.32     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.13P   19.31R    1.75  
Scunthorpe           21   21  -15      -6.66    16.42   -12.71    54.02     7.51   -17.68     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.12P   22.45R    2.29  
Bristol_Rovers       21   17   -8      -8.84     8.43    -3.60    46.33     7.19   -15.39     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   59.29R   12.38  
Plymouth             21   17  -16      -6.54    15.54    -7.49    45.39     7.22   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.92R   17.11  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   15  -16      -7.26    12.24    -6.72    41.26     6.97   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   83.66R   35.59  
Bradford             21   15  -21      -8.01    10.53   -12.01    43.22     7.19   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   76.44R   26.62  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Bury 2 0 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          21   43  +19       4.41    74.56     4.54    88.31     7.33    34.96    47.78    84.52    98.80    89.13P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   41  +18       8.06    89.57     9.78    84.74     7.50    30.00    25.79    70.57    96.40    77.52P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       21   38  +15       3.51    69.81     6.54    77.64     7.32    22.99     6.07    32.64    82.22    45.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             21   36  +19      -1.59    40.15     5.52    79.65     7.52    33.31    10.44    46.10    88.03    59.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        20   35  +15       1.78    60.86     6.59    78.50     7.40    26.61     7.70    37.64    85.16    51.78P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   21   35   -2       7.58    87.43     0.28    66.41     7.33    -6.37     0.20     2.76    24.68     6.11P    0.08R    0.00  
Tranmere         21   34   +6       5.36    78.46     6.11    67.55     7.48     4.87     0.35     4.04    31.38     9.02P    0.06R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   33   +9       5.06    77.83    10.42    66.21     7.31     7.44     0.18     2.72    26.07     6.68P    0.06R    0.00  
Exeter           21   31   +6      -1.40    41.79     0.52    69.55     7.37    12.32     0.57     6.35    43.15    15.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Stevenage        21   31   +0       2.04    62.53    -0.22    64.55     7.30    -1.01     0.07     1.53    18.20     4.67P    0.15R    0.01  
Swindon          21   30   -4       0.59    53.91    -4.96    65.69     7.34    -1.99     0.11     2.05    22.21     6.19P    0.10R    0.01  
Oldham           21   29   +7      -5.41    21.34    -1.35    69.16     7.49    15.71     0.60     6.71    42.06    17.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Carlisle         21   27   -2      -2.56    35.14    -3.05    62.17     7.35    -0.52     0.04     0.74    11.57     2.97P    0.39R    0.02  
Northampton      21   26   -2      -4.15    27.29    -4.03    62.39     7.58     1.17     0.07     0.93    13.23     3.69P    0.50R    0.05  
Port_Vale        21   26   -3      -0.57    47.35    -0.16    59.53     7.20    -3.91     0.01     0.29     5.88     1.32P    1.01R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     20   26   -4       1.06    57.30    -0.08    58.24     7.50    -9.47     0.01     0.25     4.77     1.09P    1.84R    0.26  
Crewe            21   25   -5      -1.42    42.07    -1.45    56.03     7.23    -9.84     0.00     0.05     2.50     0.48P    3.02R    0.37  
Grimsby          21   22   -9      -1.29    42.73    -1.21    50.39     7.01   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P   13.00R    2.37  
Morecambe        21   22  -13      -0.88    45.55    -4.38    48.84     6.89   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   18.80R    3.61  
Yeovil           19   21   +0      -3.17    31.17     2.80    55.13     7.62    -4.37     0.00     0.10     2.50     0.59P    4.63R    0.70  
Cheltenham       20   20  -11      -3.43    30.09    -4.68    50.64     7.43   -18.68     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.08P   13.42R    2.77  
Cambridge_Utd    21   19  -16      -5.32    20.46    -9.52    49.17     7.16   -21.97     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   18.41R    3.98  
Notts_County     21   16  -21      -8.51     9.33   -13.97    45.96     7.26   -27.92     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   33.96R    8.92  
Macclesfield     21   13  -22      -4.27    24.21    -4.06    34.19     6.60   -42.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.53R   76.80  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Barrow 1 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      24   50  +30       6.80    83.23    14.79    89.99     6.59    44.71    52.84    97.03    67.16P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       24   49  +26       8.81    88.12    14.78    85.12     7.04    35.05    21.49    87.02    38.61P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     24   46  +19       8.63    87.00    12.07    80.61     7.17    25.87     8.29    68.45    21.25P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            23   46  +16       9.80    92.51     9.13    81.41     6.71    21.90     8.25    72.13    23.86P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     23   44  +13      11.43    94.94    11.27    76.17     6.83    14.45     2.02    40.88     8.73P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          24   42  +20       1.19    56.19     8.08    79.52     6.68    31.07     5.47    65.09    23.35P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          23   39   +9       4.48    73.99     4.31    74.46     6.89    14.85     1.14    32.82     8.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      23   37   +4       4.05    71.70     1.79    70.87     6.95     7.71     0.32    16.42     3.76P    0.05R    0.00  
Eastleigh          24   36   -1       4.94    75.69     1.37    65.40     6.62    -1.97     0.02     3.58     0.59P    0.34R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   24   34   +5      -0.35    48.34     2.51    66.50     6.71     8.68     0.04     5.85     1.34P    0.19R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       23   31   -1      -1.24    43.19    -2.56    63.31     6.81     0.70     0.01     2.24     0.53P    0.90R    0.01  
Barrow             24   31   -2      -0.59    47.33    -0.40    57.75     6.55    -6.61     0.00     0.31     0.03P    5.17R    0.04  
Hartlepool         24   31   -6      -0.13    49.94    -3.72    58.71     6.53    -9.17     0.00     0.39     0.05P    4.02R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          24   28   -4      -6.32    19.09    -6.37    58.11     6.69    -4.04     0.00     0.31     0.07P    5.02R    0.04  
Barnet             21   28   -4      -4.31    26.17    -9.47    66.36     7.48     2.11     0.11     6.87     2.05P    0.54R    0.00  
Halifax            22   26   -5       0.45    53.73     0.95    53.99     6.77   -11.44     0.00     0.07     0.01P   15.44R    0.28  
Aldershot          24   25  -19      -4.12    27.98   -13.76    52.68     6.62   -22.12     0.00     0.02     0.00    22.04R    0.50  
Bromley            23   24   -8      -6.16    19.13    -5.78    54.47     7.04    -9.89     0.00     0.08     0.01P   14.75R    0.29  
Havant_&_Wville    24   24   -9      -2.41    38.00     2.11    47.69     6.84   -19.56     0.00     0.01     0.00    48.03R    2.33  
Chesterfield       23   23   -4     -11.53     5.24    -8.77    57.66     7.01     0.78     0.00     0.43     0.13P    6.15R    0.07  
Dover_Athletic     24   21  -18      -9.32     9.26   -14.21    49.87     6.71   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.59R    1.51  
Maidenhead         23   21  -22      -2.67    35.54    -9.50    44.59     6.52   -35.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.22R    6.98  
Maidstone_United   23   19  -16      -4.90    23.18    -4.97    43.27     6.48   -26.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.92R    8.56  
Braintree_Town     24   14  -23      -6.83    14.91    -3.65    32.19     6.17   -41.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.62R   79.37