Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 12 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 10 December 2018, Everton 2 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        16   42  +28       8.51    96.17     8.36    88.61     6.08    54.92    23.16    74.30    91.30    97.72   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   41  +36       3.38    76.76     5.79    93.91     5.40    77.79    72.48    94.41    98.82    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        16   36  +14       5.00    82.58    -0.69    81.14     6.15    38.19     2.92    18.33    56.29    82.33    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   34  +20       2.65    68.31     4.82    77.36     6.28    40.87     0.87     7.82    30.66    63.93    99.44     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   34  +15       4.51    79.39     2.41    75.75     6.45    34.07     0.56     4.99    21.70    50.49    98.80     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          16   26   +2      -2.57    31.68    -7.98    65.65     6.45    16.49     0.01     0.14     1.21     5.56    81.78     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   24   +4       0.31    52.14     2.00    52.81     6.65     0.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     7.30     0.07R    0.00  
Bournemouth      16   23   -1       2.88    70.43     3.53    49.54     6.54    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.87     0.36R    0.01  
Leicester        16   22   +1      -0.79    44.84     0.26    50.42     6.49    -3.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.81     0.22R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    16   22   -2       3.54    74.47     3.78    47.75     6.56   -10.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.69     0.77R    0.03  
West_Ham         16   21   -2       1.86    64.10     3.86    49.42     6.63    -6.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.86     0.46R    0.01  
Watford          16   21   -3       2.97    71.38     4.02    46.45     6.36   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.01     1.05R    0.05  
Brighton         16   21   -3       2.45    68.33     2.82    45.08     6.29   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.57     1.64R    0.10  
Cardiff          16   14  -15      -0.88    44.62    -2.01    33.91     6.16   -32.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.05R    8.13  
Newcastle        16   13   -9      -5.66    14.76    -3.66    38.98     6.29   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    11.52R    1.63  
Crystal_Palace   16   12  -10      -5.96    13.28    -3.55    36.98     6.28   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    19.21R    2.86  
Burnley          16   12  -17      -5.52    14.63    -9.61    34.03     6.08   -30.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.75R    7.33  
Huddersfield     16   10  -17      -2.66    30.12    -1.29    27.75     5.68   -37.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.60R   35.39  
Southampton      16    9  -17      -7.52     6.75    -7.49    32.86     6.28   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.22R   10.89  
Fulham           16    9  -24      -4.40    19.10    -5.35    28.55     6.26   -44.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.07R   33.57  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Birmingham 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         21   43  +14      10.43    93.88     8.33    81.45     7.47    20.25    23.12    41.35    84.56    50.12P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   42  +17       9.03    91.26    10.78    81.19     7.39    24.27    22.78    41.06    84.60    50.61P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       21   37  +10       5.25    78.00     5.61    75.01     7.43    15.51     6.14    14.45    56.83    23.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           21   37   +7       3.38    69.05    -0.14    77.23     7.35    15.93     9.63    21.30    68.20    33.17P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       21   36  +14      -1.23    42.22     0.80    80.28     7.58    29.55    20.94    38.32    82.10    52.12P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   21   36   +9       1.46    58.66     0.77    77.60     7.21    19.57    10.03    22.65    71.19    37.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   34  +10       4.55    75.03     9.07    68.36     7.42     9.97     1.00     3.06    24.28     7.19P    0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   32   +9      -2.82    33.65    -0.24    73.11     7.49    19.36     4.08    10.31    48.85    21.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      21   30   +5       4.52    76.08     9.95    59.95     7.20    -1.34     0.03     0.20     3.54     0.77P    1.62R    0.07  
Stoke           21   30   +2      -2.30    37.05    -3.18    67.98     7.62     7.57     0.83     2.76    22.97     8.19P    0.14R    0.00  
Blackburn       21   30   -4       2.54    64.85    -1.85    62.90     7.58    -6.35     0.17     0.57     7.81     1.93P    0.88R    0.04  
Swansea         21   29   +2      -3.22    31.89    -3.13    68.09     7.52     9.09     0.96     2.78    23.18     8.54P    0.13R    0.01  
Bristol_City    21   29   +1      -0.21    49.29     0.41    63.36     7.38     1.01     0.14     0.64     8.56     2.29P    0.63R    0.03  
QPR             21   28   -6       2.84    67.33    -0.09    57.66     7.23   -13.46     0.00     0.05     1.71     0.26P    3.92R    0.23  
Preston         21   25   -3      -3.72    29.27    -2.72    60.22     7.48    -1.77     0.05     0.18     4.11     1.03P    1.95R    0.11  
Wigan           21   25   -6      -3.51    30.77    -5.68    59.38     7.52    -5.69     0.03     0.13     3.19     0.82P    2.59R    0.17  
Sheff_Wed       21   24  -11      -2.63    35.50    -7.35    55.03     7.34   -16.40     0.01     0.03     0.74     0.17P    8.45R    0.89  
Brentford       21   22   +1      -8.30    10.80    -0.97    58.94     7.53     4.87     0.03     0.15     3.09     0.83P    3.00R    0.24  
Hull            21   21   -9      -5.67    20.22    -5.60    52.76     7.28   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P   13.42R    1.66  
Rotherham       21   21  -11      -0.33    49.43     1.05    46.41     7.16   -25.20     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   42.85R    9.64  
Millwall        21   19   -9      -7.12    14.00    -4.77    49.62     7.23   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   24.35R    3.70  
Reading         21   18   -8      -6.08    17.57    -0.12    46.42     7.18   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   40.79R    8.85  
Bolton          21   18  -14      -1.82    39.64    -0.78    41.54     6.65   -29.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.97R   25.36  
Ipswich         21   11  -20     -11.34     3.02   -10.16    37.86     6.99   -31.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.25R   48.99  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 December 2018, Portsmouth 1 2 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           21   47  +18      12.90    97.39    10.26    85.49     7.38    24.11    18.45    42.22    93.20    53.71P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                21   41  +20       5.43    78.22     9.76    83.45     7.66    32.25    13.30    34.11    89.53    49.10P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.81    71.66     5.21    91.25     7.91    43.02    52.96    74.13    98.16    82.05P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         21   39  +12       5.50    78.72     5.05    78.85     7.52    20.36     4.38    14.31    73.98    28.19P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             21   37   +9       4.62    75.10     3.78    76.62     7.45    16.82     2.22     8.48    63.35    21.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnsley             20   35  +14      -0.11    48.91     2.45    80.50     7.81    28.74     7.63    21.82    80.66    41.23P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            21   35   +8       4.68    75.58     5.87    71.70     7.48    11.44     0.57     2.55    36.61     9.32P    0.06R    0.00  
Blackpool            20   34   +6       4.63    76.06     3.08    70.07     7.59     6.68     0.40     1.75    28.19     7.34P    0.17R    0.00  
Wycombe              21   31   +2       4.98    76.88     6.50    62.45     7.53    -2.65     0.02     0.13     6.36     1.17P    2.75R    0.08  
Walsall              21   30   -6       4.21    74.28    -1.51    60.68     7.26   -11.45     0.01     0.05     3.44     0.59P    4.56R    0.17  
Coventry             21   29   -3       3.74    71.75     1.75    58.67     7.31    -9.46     0.01     0.04     2.06     0.39P    7.48R    0.28  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.46    70.61     2.11    59.47     7.59    -8.22     0.00     0.07     2.95     0.60P    7.02R    0.34  
Fleetwood_Town       21   27   +5      -2.95    33.12     3.47    63.35     7.42     8.06     0.02     0.15     8.00     1.92P    1.86R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        20   27   -2      -0.69    46.65    -2.34    60.84     7.74    -4.88     0.01     0.10     4.76     1.05P    4.88R    0.23  
Southend             21   26   -3      -1.80    40.21    -1.31    59.99     7.48    -3.57     0.01     0.03     3.40     0.70P    5.44R    0.24  
Gillingham           21   24   -3      -2.89    33.96     0.27    56.23     7.44    -6.58     0.00     0.02     1.24     0.29P   13.02R    0.83  
Shrewsbury           21   24   -3      -4.95    23.10    -3.40    58.62     7.37    -2.42     0.00     0.03     2.19     0.54P    7.15R    0.37  
Rochdale             21   24  -11      -1.30    43.14    -5.17    55.05     7.38   -16.56     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.13P   18.09R    1.46  
Oxford_Utd           21   22   -6      -5.13    22.73    -3.02    54.25     7.48    -9.36     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.13P   19.63R    1.74  
Scunthorpe           21   21  -15      -6.79    15.94   -12.88    54.09     7.51   -17.56     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.12P   22.13R    2.15  
Bristol_Rovers       21   17   -8      -8.87     8.46    -3.66    46.47     7.20   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   58.33R   12.26  
Plymouth             21   17  -16      -6.47    16.05    -7.36    45.33     7.23   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    66.59R   17.14  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   15  -16      -7.30    12.08    -6.77    41.27     6.94   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.77R   35.79  
Bradford             21   15  -21      -8.08    10.32   -12.14    43.19     7.16   -30.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.07R   26.86  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Bury 2 0 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          21   43  +19       4.46    74.66     4.62    88.26     7.33    34.90    47.43    84.25    98.75    89.15P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   41  +18       8.12    89.62     9.86    84.70     7.50    29.97    25.82    70.19    96.32    77.00P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       21   38  +15       3.50    70.03     6.55    77.61     7.31    22.94     5.88    32.13    82.16    44.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             21   36  +19      -1.59    40.16     5.47    79.77     7.52    33.49    10.74    46.38    88.41    60.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        20   35  +15       1.78    60.65     6.57    78.62     7.44    26.76     7.79    38.78    85.12    52.30P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   21   35   -2       7.61    87.32     0.38    66.38     7.34    -6.51     0.25     2.62    24.32     5.76P    0.06R    0.00  
Tranmere         21   34   +6       5.21    77.89     5.92    67.59     7.49     4.95     0.34     3.99    31.69     8.98P    0.04R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   33   +9       5.14    78.40    10.48    66.11     7.32     7.34     0.17     2.57    25.32     6.59P    0.06R    0.00  
Exeter           21   31   +6      -1.66    40.10     0.17    69.77     7.46    12.66     0.66     6.90    43.91    16.25P    0.02R    0.00  
Stevenage        21   31   +0       2.00    62.23    -0.28    64.60     7.32    -0.92     0.10     1.54    18.59     4.83P    0.16R    0.01  
Swindon          21   30   -4       0.47    53.14    -5.11    65.86     7.36    -1.73     0.15     2.22    22.85     6.64P    0.10R    0.01  
Oldham           21   29   +7      -5.44    20.94    -1.39    69.19     7.47    15.75     0.57     6.37    42.09    17.23P    0.03R    0.00  
Carlisle         21   27   -2      -2.45    36.09    -2.91    62.03     7.36    -0.68     0.03     0.63    11.51     2.94P    0.43R    0.04  
Northampton      21   26   -2      -3.83    28.82    -3.58    62.09     7.61     0.67     0.05     0.79    12.52     3.51P    0.52R    0.04  
Port_Vale        21   26   -3      -0.59    47.00    -0.15    59.50     7.22    -3.97     0.01     0.26     6.03     1.35P    1.08R    0.15  
Crawley_Town     20   26   -4       1.17    58.00     0.06    58.04     7.48    -9.70     0.01     0.20     4.48     0.90P    1.95R    0.29  
Crewe            21   25   -5      -1.40    42.43    -1.44    55.98     7.24    -9.93     0.00     0.08     2.39     0.54P    3.05R    0.38  
Grimsby          21   22   -9      -1.38    42.45    -1.35    50.46     7.01   -17.18     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.05P   12.91R    2.42  
Morecambe        21   22  -13      -0.96    44.94    -4.50    48.92     6.92   -23.75     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   18.78R    3.69  
Yeovil           19   21   +0      -3.10    31.66     2.94    55.06     7.61    -4.40     0.00     0.08     2.29     0.54P    4.68R    0.71  
Cheltenham       20   20  -11      -3.39    30.36    -4.58    50.59     7.45   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.10P   13.91R    2.79  
Cambridge_Utd    21   19  -16      -5.36    20.53    -9.54    49.22     7.19   -21.91     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   18.21R    3.91  
Notts_County     21   16  -21      -8.62     8.85   -14.15    46.02     7.29   -27.85     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P   33.54R    8.87  
Macclesfield     21   13  -22      -4.23    24.76    -4.04    34.23     6.65   -42.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.48R   76.68  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Barrow 1 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      24   50  +30       6.76    83.07    14.67    90.04     6.62    44.80    53.27    97.14    67.70P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       24   49  +26       8.73    87.82    14.70    85.19     6.99    35.14    21.55    87.32    38.53P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     24   46  +19       8.70    87.27    12.22    80.47     7.16    25.73     7.89    67.59    20.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            23   46  +16       9.65    92.15     8.94    81.54     6.72    22.15     8.30    72.55    24.18P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     23   44  +13      11.31    94.84    11.13    76.21     6.84    14.52     1.99    41.10     8.97P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          24   42  +20       1.25    56.59     8.12    79.49     6.68    31.02     5.44    64.97    22.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          23   39   +9       4.45    73.79     4.24    74.41     6.85    14.77     1.02    32.52     8.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      23   37   +4       3.88    70.93     1.53    71.02     7.04     7.96     0.36    17.01     3.89P    0.04R    0.00  
Eastleigh          24   36   -1       4.93    75.88     1.40    65.44     6.66    -1.99     0.02     3.76     0.67P    0.36R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   24   34   +5      -0.26    48.73     2.59    66.41     6.67     8.57     0.05     5.56     1.22P    0.19R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       23   31   -1      -1.11    43.82    -2.36    63.23     6.85     0.57     0.01     2.21     0.48P    0.93R    0.01  
Barrow             24   31   -2      -0.52    47.61    -0.28    57.76     6.59    -6.60     0.00     0.27     0.03P    5.18R    0.03  
Hartlepool         24   31   -6      -0.19    49.48    -3.81    58.72     6.58    -9.16     0.00     0.38     0.07P    4.13R    0.05  
Dag_&_Red          24   28   -4      -6.17    19.90    -6.20    58.03     6.73    -4.15     0.00     0.36     0.09P    4.99R    0.05  
Barnet             21   28   -4      -4.28    26.47    -9.38    66.28     7.51     2.02     0.09     6.68     1.89P    0.61R    0.00  
Halifax            22   26   -5       0.37    53.33     0.86    54.05     6.82   -11.36     0.00     0.10     0.02P   15.34R    0.27  
Aldershot          24   25  -19      -4.01    28.66   -13.65    52.61     6.63   -22.20     0.00     0.03     0.00P   22.25R    0.55  
Bromley            23   24   -8      -6.11    19.27    -5.68    54.43     7.07    -9.98     0.00     0.10     0.02P   14.76R    0.32  
Havant_&_Wville    24   24   -9      -2.18    39.24     2.57    47.47     6.85   -19.96     0.00     0.01     0.00P   49.28R    2.70  
Chesterfield       23   23   -4     -11.44     5.00    -8.60    57.63     6.98     0.72     0.00     0.35     0.09P    6.21R    0.08  
Dover_Athletic     24   21  -18      -9.34     9.12   -14.20    49.85     6.64   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.45R    1.43  
Maidenhead         23   21  -22      -2.81    34.88    -9.78    44.74     6.61   -34.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.90R    6.84  
Maidstone_United   23   19  -16      -4.89    23.21    -4.92    43.27     6.54   -26.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.79R    8.95  
Braintree_Town     24   14  -23      -7.03    14.45    -4.09    32.34     6.19   -41.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.59R   78.72