Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 11 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 10 December 2018, Everton 2 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        16   42  +28       8.45    96.09     8.35    88.64     6.10    54.99    23.31    74.22    91.43    97.73   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   41  +36       3.37    76.67     5.78    93.93     5.42    77.70    72.27    94.40    98.78    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        16   36  +14       5.06    82.65    -0.60    81.12     6.19    38.15     2.98    18.35    56.11    82.44    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   34  +20       2.66    68.41     4.86    77.34     6.33    40.91     0.94     7.96    30.91    64.07    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   34  +15       4.55    79.48     2.47    75.65     6.45    33.95     0.49     4.95    21.54    50.17    98.74     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          16   26   +2      -2.58    31.46    -8.04    65.66     6.42    16.53     0.00     0.13     1.21     5.60    81.89     0.00     0.00  
Everton          16   24   +4       0.23    51.87     1.84    52.90     6.64     0.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     7.51     0.10R    0.00  
Bournemouth      16   23   -1       2.89    70.51     3.48    49.59     6.48    -8.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.88     0.34R    0.00  
Leicester        16   22   +1      -0.71    45.18     0.38    50.33     6.51    -3.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.56     0.19R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    16   22   -2       3.60    75.06     3.93    47.68     6.60   -10.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.82R    0.04  
West_Ham         16   21   -2       1.87    64.28     3.82    49.43     6.67    -6.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.97     0.47R    0.02  
Watford          16   21   -3       2.97    71.60     4.00    46.36     6.39   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.00     1.13R    0.08  
Brighton         16   21   -3       2.55    68.99     2.98    45.01     6.23   -13.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60     1.60R    0.07  
Cardiff          16   14  -15      -1.01    43.65    -2.20    34.01     6.16   -32.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.77R    8.13  
Newcastle        16   13   -9      -5.64    14.39    -3.67    38.95     6.32   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    12.00R    1.66  
Crystal_Palace   16   12  -10      -6.07    12.66    -3.73    37.06     6.30   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    18.67R    2.74  
Burnley          16   12  -17      -5.52    14.94    -9.63    34.05     6.10   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.82R    7.32  
Huddersfield     16   10  -17      -2.63    30.20    -1.29    27.68     5.64   -37.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.02R   35.91  
Southampton      16    9  -17      -7.61     6.35    -7.66    33.04     6.29   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.37R   10.27  
Fulham           16    9  -24      -4.31    20.01    -5.07    28.47     6.25   -44.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.70R   33.75  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Birmingham 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         21   43  +14      10.49    93.84     8.41    81.47     7.45    20.20    23.46    41.59    84.67    50.31P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   42  +17       9.06    91.29    10.77    81.16     7.45    24.21    22.81    41.05    84.34    50.78P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       21   37  +10       5.39    78.39     5.87    74.79     7.42    15.15     5.80    14.04    55.72    22.99P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   37   +7       3.45    69.52    -0.07    77.12     7.38    15.75     9.34    20.74    67.66    32.62P    0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       21   36  +14      -1.21    42.41     0.83    80.31     7.58    29.60    20.99    38.83    82.24    52.30P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   21   36   +9       1.48    58.81     0.74    77.59     7.17    19.52    10.12    22.65    71.36    37.00P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   34  +10       4.55    75.20     9.03    68.38     7.40    10.03     1.04     3.06    24.34     7.18P    0.07R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   32   +9      -2.83    33.56    -0.24    73.07     7.49    19.35     4.05    10.47    49.02    21.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      21   30   +5       4.40    75.37     9.77    60.03     7.21    -1.20     0.05     0.19     3.56     0.76P    1.57R    0.09  
Stoke           21   30   +2      -2.44    36.12    -3.38    68.22     7.57     7.95     1.04     2.91    23.94     8.58P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackburn       21   30   -4       2.56    65.09    -1.82    62.89     7.60    -6.36     0.16     0.56     7.91     1.92P    0.96R    0.03  
Swansea         21   29   +2      -3.13    32.36    -3.05    67.95     7.59     8.93     0.86     2.66    23.02     8.45P    0.12R    0.01  
Bristol_City    21   29   +1      -0.35    48.19     0.26    63.49     7.34     1.19     0.16     0.66     8.85     2.43P    0.57R    0.02  
QPR             21   28   -6       2.70    66.29    -0.34    57.79     7.23   -13.22     0.02     0.08     1.80     0.36P    3.96R    0.29  
Preston         21   25   -3      -3.65    29.79    -2.62    60.14     7.45    -1.91     0.05     0.20     3.92     1.02P    2.01R    0.16  
Wigan           21   25   -6      -3.41    30.97    -5.56    59.41     7.51    -5.69     0.03     0.15     3.19     0.89P    2.62R    0.19  
Sheff_Wed       21   24  -11      -2.57    35.62    -7.33    55.01     7.30   -16.41     0.00     0.02     0.75     0.14P    8.39R    0.85  
Brentford       21   22   +1      -8.34    10.71    -1.03    58.93     7.54     4.86     0.02     0.13     3.19     0.85P    2.86R    0.19  
Hull            21   21   -9      -5.58    20.83    -5.41    52.71     7.29   -13.47     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.09P   13.54R    1.64  
Rotherham       21   21  -11      -0.22    49.99     1.19    46.39     7.17   -25.29     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   43.33R    9.61  
Millwall        21   19   -9      -7.12    13.88    -4.73    49.55     7.22   -14.70     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   24.35R    3.93  
Reading         21   18   -8      -6.25    16.96    -0.34    46.54     7.15   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   39.80R    8.62  
Bolton          21   18  -14      -1.84    39.46    -0.78    41.43     6.63   -29.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.63R   25.74  
Ipswich         21   11  -20     -11.37     2.92   -10.19    37.88     7.02   -31.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.11R   48.63  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           20   47  +19      14.15    98.66    11.08    87.32     7.63    25.80    23.95    50.56    95.49    60.71P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                21   41  +20       5.39    77.89     9.69    83.42     7.64    32.23    11.88    31.87    90.04    47.80P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.65    70.52     4.93    91.50     7.86    43.48    51.08    74.22    98.39    82.49P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         21   39  +12       5.36    78.06     4.82    79.03     7.56    20.64     4.03    13.65    75.74    28.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnsley             20   35  +14      -0.04    49.13     2.58    80.49     7.79    28.71     6.86    20.03    81.37    39.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   35   +8       4.72    76.01     5.90    71.75     7.52    11.47     0.51     2.32    38.43     9.45P    0.07R    0.00  
Charlton             20   34   +8       3.13    68.36     3.01    74.46     7.65    15.05     1.24     5.27    53.32    16.71P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool            20   34   +6       4.70    76.46     3.16    69.91     7.56     6.46     0.37     1.51    28.77     7.05P    0.22R    0.00  
Wycombe              21   31   +2       4.97    76.86     6.50    62.55     7.55    -2.49     0.01     0.11     6.83     1.18P    2.94R    0.10  
Walsall              21   30   -6       4.14    73.94    -1.55    60.67     7.31   -11.46     0.01     0.06     3.70     0.61P    4.88R    0.21  
Coventry             21   29   -3       3.71    71.67     1.73    58.73     7.27    -9.47     0.00     0.02     2.21     0.38P    7.35R    0.33  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.64    71.53     2.36    59.27     7.64    -8.52     0.01     0.04     3.14     0.61P    7.10R    0.40  
Fleetwood_Town       21   27   +5      -2.88    33.64     3.59    63.29     7.50     7.95     0.03     0.15     8.48     1.95P    1.98R    0.08  
Burton_Albion        20   27   -2      -0.72    46.26    -2.39    60.86     7.78    -4.86     0.01     0.09     5.07     1.10P    4.98R    0.21  
Southend             21   26   -3      -1.79    39.97    -1.31    59.89     7.37    -3.65     0.00     0.05     3.22     0.66P    5.34R    0.24  
Gillingham           21   24   -3      -2.92    33.85     0.20    56.29     7.41    -6.46     0.00     0.00     1.25     0.24P   12.73R    0.82  
Shrewsbury           21   24   -3      -5.10    22.31    -3.56    58.77     7.40    -2.20     0.00     0.03     2.52     0.58P    6.93R    0.33  
Rochdale             21   24  -11      -1.22    43.89    -5.08    54.99     7.37   -16.67     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.08P   18.22R    1.51  
Oxford_Utd           21   22   -6      -5.20    22.19    -3.12    54.30     7.45    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.13P   19.33R    1.74  
Scunthorpe           21   21  -15      -6.63    16.59   -12.64    53.94     7.52   -17.73     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.13P   22.57R    2.30  
Bristol_Rovers       21   17   -8      -8.91     8.63    -3.69    46.45     7.27   -15.22     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   58.26R   12.10  
Plymouth             21   17  -16      -6.53    15.75    -7.40    45.33     7.24   -25.65     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   66.19R   17.10  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   15  -16      -7.29    12.21    -6.77    41.28     6.94   -27.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.69R   35.52  
Bradford             21   15  -21      -7.99    10.48   -12.03    43.13     7.16   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.18R   27.01  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Bury 2 0 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          21   43  +19       4.31    74.07     4.45    88.35     7.36    35.09    47.37    84.76    98.73    89.40P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   41  +18       8.05    89.39     9.73    84.80     7.48    30.18    26.26    70.62    96.63    77.64P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       21   38  +15       3.72    70.96     6.87    77.38     7.31    22.62     5.62    31.12    81.41    44.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             21   36  +19      -1.71    39.40     5.32    79.87     7.56    33.68    10.93    47.13    88.65    60.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        20   35  +15       1.76    60.35     6.57    78.58     7.45    26.70     7.63    38.27    85.21    52.26P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   21   35   -2       7.44    86.99     0.11    66.46     7.31    -6.37     0.26     2.77    24.90     6.23P    0.06R    0.00  
Tranmere         21   34   +6       5.25    78.01     5.98    67.54     7.50     4.84     0.36     4.11    31.55     9.16P    0.03R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   33   +9       5.05    77.56    10.38    66.18     7.37     7.42     0.20     2.74    26.28     6.80P    0.05R    0.01  
Exeter           21   31   +6      -1.45    41.47     0.49    69.51     7.38    12.30     0.58     6.36    42.73    15.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Stevenage        21   31   +0       2.05    62.47    -0.19    64.47     7.29    -1.09     0.08     1.52    18.20     4.65P    0.17R    0.00  
Swindon          21   30   -4       0.53    53.53    -5.02    65.76     7.35    -1.87     0.11     2.00    22.61     6.29P    0.12R    0.01  
Oldham           21   29   +7      -5.39    21.16    -1.30    69.14     7.49    15.67     0.51     6.34    42.19    17.15P    0.03R    0.00  
Carlisle         21   27   -2      -2.44    35.87    -2.88    62.03     7.34    -0.73     0.04     0.69    11.44     2.99P    0.40R    0.04  
Northampton      21   26   -2      -3.98    28.59    -3.77    62.28     7.61     0.99     0.04     0.94    12.95     3.82P    0.54R    0.06  
Port_Vale        21   26   -3      -0.62    47.05    -0.23    59.55     7.24    -3.92     0.00     0.25     6.14     1.37P    0.97R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     20   26   -4       1.16    57.83     0.06    58.15     7.41    -9.59     0.01     0.21     4.59     0.95P    1.94R    0.25  
Crewe            21   25   -5      -1.33    42.85    -1.32    55.98     7.26    -9.97     0.00     0.07     2.39     0.48P    3.21R    0.40  
Grimsby          21   22   -9      -1.22    43.31    -1.10    50.33     7.04   -17.36     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P   13.43R    2.39  
Morecambe        21   22  -13      -0.98    45.23    -4.49    48.90     6.95   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   18.93R    3.81  
Yeovil           19   21   +0      -2.99    32.13     3.05    54.90     7.59    -4.68     0.00     0.07     2.20     0.44P    4.81R    0.74  
Cheltenham       20   20  -11      -3.53    29.45    -4.82    50.76     7.43   -18.49     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.10P   13.40R    2.65  
Cambridge_Utd    21   19  -16      -5.42    20.05    -9.67    49.38     7.16   -21.70     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   17.45R    3.69  
Notts_County     21   16  -21      -8.58     9.15   -14.08    46.07     7.32   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   33.88R    8.91  
Macclesfield     21   13  -22      -4.29    24.25    -4.15    34.22     6.57   -42.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.55R   76.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Barrow 1 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      24   50  +30       6.83    83.40    14.79    89.97     6.59    44.68    52.94    97.04    67.42P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       24   49  +26       8.76    88.17    14.78    85.19     7.02    35.10    21.91    87.26    38.88P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     24   46  +19       8.70    87.18    12.20    80.48     7.19    25.66     7.84    67.89    20.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            23   46  +16       9.88    92.70     9.24    81.34     6.73    21.85     8.23    71.70    23.91P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     23   44  +13      11.37    94.87    11.25    76.22     6.85    14.49     2.00    41.65     9.09P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          24   42  +20       1.11    55.80     7.90    79.63     6.69    31.19     5.47    65.80    23.44P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          23   39   +9       4.56    74.53     4.42    74.38     6.88    14.73     1.11    32.30     8.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      23   37   +4       3.98    71.57     1.69    70.91     6.95     7.81     0.34    16.38     3.75P    0.04R    0.00  
Eastleigh          24   36   -1       4.92    75.61     1.37    65.41     6.65    -1.96     0.01     3.57     0.63P    0.40R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   24   34   +5      -0.19    49.27     2.72    66.32     6.67     8.43     0.02     5.46     1.20P    0.19R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       23   31   -1      -1.15    43.70    -2.47    63.33     6.81     0.68     0.00     2.20     0.47P    0.93R    0.00  
Barrow             24   31   -2      -0.57    47.38    -0.37    57.74     6.63    -6.61     0.00     0.31     0.04P    5.31R    0.01  
Hartlepool         24   31   -6      -0.22    49.12    -3.84    58.76     6.57    -9.09     0.00     0.39     0.07P    3.96R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red          24   28   -4      -6.35    18.79    -6.43    58.15     6.72    -3.98     0.00     0.37     0.08P    4.97R    0.04  
Barnet             21   28   -4      -4.42    25.84    -9.61    66.45     7.51     2.23     0.12     7.13     1.98P    0.61R    0.00  
Halifax            22   26   -5       0.57    54.37     1.08    53.87     6.81   -11.61     0.00     0.09     0.01P   16.03R    0.27  
Aldershot          24   25  -19      -3.96    28.93   -13.56    52.54     6.58   -22.32     0.00     0.02     0.01P   22.50R    0.55  
Bromley            23   24   -8      -6.24    18.72    -5.93    54.61     7.03    -9.69     0.00     0.10     0.01P   14.04R    0.32  
Havant_&_Wville    24   24   -9      -2.33    38.20     2.27    47.61     6.85   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.00P   48.75R    2.50  
Chesterfield       23   23   -4     -11.46     5.09    -8.62    57.57     7.03     0.62     0.00     0.35     0.10P    6.49R    0.09  
Dover_Athletic     24   21  -18      -9.37     8.97   -14.20    49.87     6.74   -19.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.52R    1.51  
Maidenhead         23   21  -22      -2.86    34.74    -9.86    44.86     6.62   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.69R    6.75  
Maidstone_United   23   19  -16      -4.93    23.28    -4.97    43.23     6.51   -26.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.80R    8.67  
Braintree_Town     24   14  -23      -6.90    14.72    -3.86    32.25     6.11   -41.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.76R   79.25