Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 10 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 9 December 2018, Newcastle 1 2 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        16   42  +28       8.50    96.17     8.32    88.66     6.07    55.04    23.23    74.54    91.54    97.74    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   41  +36       3.32    76.76     5.70    93.89     5.40    77.70    72.39    94.38    98.89    99.78   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        16   36  +14       5.01    82.46    -0.65    81.11     6.19    38.15     2.95    18.43    56.01    81.83    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          16   34  +20       2.73    68.93     4.97    77.22     6.30    40.58     0.86     7.56    30.19    63.22    99.27     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   34  +15       4.48    78.95     2.30    75.79     6.42    34.21     0.56     4.97    22.10    51.32    98.62     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          16   26   +2      -2.61    31.38    -8.06    65.69     6.45    16.56     0.00     0.13     1.27     5.88    80.20     0.00     0.00  
Everton          15   23   +4       0.96    57.37     2.32    53.97     6.84     2.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14     9.77     0.04R    0.00  
Bournemouth      16   23   -1       2.84    70.13     3.41    49.58     6.54    -8.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.71     0.30R    0.02  
Leicester        16   22   +1      -0.74    45.30     0.33    50.34     6.47    -3.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.46     0.22R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    16   22   -2       3.45    74.02     3.69    47.88     6.61    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.80     0.69R    0.03  
West_Ham         16   21   -2       1.83    63.90     3.78    49.53     6.60    -6.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.76     0.44R    0.03  
Brighton         16   21   -3       2.56    69.05     2.97    45.03     6.29   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.64     1.63R    0.06  
Watford          15   20   -3       3.06    72.80     3.52    46.17     6.55   -13.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.94     1.39R    0.07  
Cardiff          16   14  -15      -0.95    44.12    -2.07    33.90     6.13   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    37.78R    8.06  
Newcastle        16   13   -9      -5.57    14.82    -3.56    38.74     6.29   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    12.39R    1.80  
Crystal_Palace   16   12  -10      -6.05    12.73    -3.69    37.01     6.30   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    18.52R    2.82  
Burnley          16   12  -17      -5.41    15.12    -9.45    33.91     6.08   -30.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.63R    7.57  
Huddersfield     16   10  -17      -2.60    30.36    -1.18    27.71     5.67   -37.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.23R   35.61  
Southampton      16    9  -17      -7.59     6.47    -7.59    33.01     6.26   -27.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.09R   10.20  
Fulham           16    9  -24      -4.32    19.60    -5.05    28.48     6.26   -44.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.63R   33.72  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Birmingham 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         21   43  +14      10.46    93.85     8.37    81.53     7.44    20.32    23.06    41.49    84.69    50.25P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    21   42  +17       8.89    90.89    10.50    81.40     7.36    24.59    23.43    42.09    85.43    51.75P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       21   37  +10       5.23    77.93     5.56    75.04     7.38    15.58     5.95    14.24    57.27    23.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           21   37   +7       3.23    68.26    -0.41    77.41     7.35    16.17     9.95    21.76    68.87    33.81P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       21   36  +14      -1.14    43.05     0.93    80.20     7.55    29.49    20.51    37.66    81.62    51.36P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   21   36   +9       1.53    59.08     0.83    77.51     7.20    19.48     9.85    22.09    70.48    36.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   21   34  +10       4.59    75.38     9.13    68.37     7.42     9.98     1.01     3.02    24.16     6.96P    0.06R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     21   32   +9      -2.70    34.36    -0.06    73.05     7.47    19.23     3.98    10.18    48.49    21.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham      21   30   +5       4.42    75.46     9.80    59.98     7.21    -1.29     0.05     0.14     3.46     0.64P    1.52R    0.07  
Stoke           21   30   +2      -2.50    35.58    -3.44    68.14     7.59     7.84     0.95     2.83    23.52     8.26P    0.11R    0.00  
Blackburn       21   30   -4       2.63    65.58    -1.71    62.78     7.54    -6.57     0.17     0.60     7.47     1.88P    0.93R    0.04  
Swansea         21   29   +2      -3.18    31.95    -3.03    68.08     7.48     9.04     0.80     2.72    23.09     8.44P    0.13R    0.01  
Bristol_City    21   29   +1      -0.31    48.48     0.28    63.44     7.36     1.16     0.16     0.64     8.62     2.39P    0.66R    0.03  
QPR             21   28   -6       2.79    66.89    -0.21    57.74     7.16   -13.33     0.01     0.07     1.62     0.34P    3.68R    0.26  
Preston         21   25   -3      -3.61    29.92    -2.58    60.11     7.50    -1.93     0.04     0.21     3.98     1.06P    2.10R    0.11  
Wigan           21   25   -6      -3.40    31.06    -5.52    59.33     7.50    -5.82     0.03     0.11     2.99     0.80P    2.71R    0.18  
Sheff_Wed       21   24  -11      -2.55    35.97    -7.24    54.97     7.34   -16.51     0.01     0.03     0.67     0.15P    8.64R    0.77  
Brentford       21   22   +1      -8.24    11.02    -0.88    58.78     7.54     4.65     0.03     0.13     3.07     0.80P    3.04R    0.21  
Hull            21   21   -9      -5.69    20.11    -5.62    52.77     7.26   -13.34     0.00     0.02     0.31     0.05P   13.19R    1.59  
Rotherham       21   21  -11      -0.20    50.25     1.25    46.36     7.18   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.19R    9.68  
Millwall        21   19   -9      -7.19    13.60    -4.88    49.69     7.25   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   23.68R    3.66  
Reading         21   18   -8      -6.12    17.55    -0.18    46.47     7.23   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   40.38R    8.66  
Bolton          21   18  -14      -1.81    39.60    -0.71    41.41     6.67   -30.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.49R   25.85  
Ipswich         21   11  -20     -11.38     2.90   -10.18    37.85     6.97   -31.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.49R   48.88  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           20   47  +19      14.08    98.63    10.99    87.41     7.62    25.91    24.55    51.49    95.76    61.50P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                21   41  +20       5.51    78.59     9.85    83.33     7.68    32.08    12.01    31.71    89.67    47.75P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.68    70.95     5.00    91.42     7.87    43.37    50.65    73.81    98.46    82.12P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         21   39  +12       5.49    78.86     5.05    78.79     7.61    20.29     3.91    13.02    74.94    27.44P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             20   35  +14      -0.16    48.58     2.39    80.48     7.83    28.69     6.80    20.35    81.58    40.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   35   +8       4.66    75.34     5.79    71.74     7.53    11.49     0.52     2.45    38.40     9.56P    0.11R    0.00  
Charlton             20   34   +8       3.17    68.41     3.10    74.42     7.65    15.00     1.12     5.10    53.25    16.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool            20   34   +6       4.70    76.28     3.20    69.98     7.54     6.52     0.35     1.49    28.82     7.11P    0.17R    0.01  
Wycombe              21   31   +2       4.96    77.00     6.47    62.61     7.55    -2.44     0.03     0.13     7.07     1.24P    2.74R    0.08  
Walsall              21   30   -6       4.10    73.77    -1.62    60.74     7.26   -11.34     0.00     0.04     3.71     0.58P    4.44R    0.16  
Coventry             21   29   -3       3.86    72.35     1.92    58.61     7.26    -9.61     0.00     0.02     2.17     0.34P    7.55R    0.28  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.38    69.97     2.02    59.51     7.64    -8.16     0.01     0.04     3.34     0.62P    6.93R    0.33  
Fleetwood_Town       21   27   +5      -2.77    34.27     3.73    63.16     7.48     7.80     0.02     0.17     8.35     1.97P    2.10R    0.05  
Burton_Albion        20   27   -2      -0.86    45.40    -2.61    61.12     7.78    -4.47     0.02     0.10     5.41     1.34P    4.60R    0.18  
Southend             21   26   -3      -1.80    39.82    -1.29    59.88     7.35    -3.73     0.00     0.04     3.16     0.68P    5.37R    0.19  
Gillingham           21   24   -3      -2.83    34.27     0.35    56.18     7.38    -6.63     0.00     0.01     1.23     0.24P   12.96R    0.88  
Shrewsbury           21   24   -3      -5.07    22.63    -3.54    58.76     7.39    -2.20     0.00     0.03     2.57     0.64P    6.75R    0.33  
Rochdale             21   24  -11      -1.32    42.91    -5.26    55.11     7.37   -16.46     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.12P   17.81R    1.46  
Oxford_Utd           21   22   -6      -5.18    22.15    -3.06    54.29     7.39    -9.31     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.11P   19.25R    1.58  
Scunthorpe           21   21  -15      -6.78    15.98   -12.87    54.12     7.54   -17.51     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.11P   22.28R    2.17  
Bristol_Rovers       21   17   -8      -8.85     8.51    -3.59    46.36     7.21   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   59.03R   12.22  
Plymouth             21   17  -16      -6.45    16.02    -7.35    45.32     7.28   -25.64     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   66.63R   17.11  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   15  -16      -7.28    12.12    -6.75    41.22     6.91   -27.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.87R   35.67  
Bradford             21   15  -21      -7.89    10.81   -11.89    43.02     7.20   -30.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.37R   27.30  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Bury 2 0 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          21   43  +19       4.43    74.58     4.58    88.33     7.32    34.99    47.52    84.72    98.81    89.50P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     20   41  +18       8.13    89.58     9.86    84.73     7.49    30.00    26.03    70.31    96.40    77.29P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       21   38  +15       3.57    70.19     6.65    77.60     7.27    22.90     5.95    32.05    82.58    45.20P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             21   36  +19      -1.52    40.63     5.57    79.72     7.52    33.40    10.57    45.84    88.35    59.49P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        20   35  +15       1.76    60.55     6.57    78.60     7.45    26.71     7.68    38.33    85.32    52.23P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   21   35   -2       7.60    87.45     0.38    66.27     7.32    -6.67     0.22     2.68    23.86     5.84P    0.07R    0.00  
Tranmere         21   34   +6       5.25    78.18     5.97    67.50     7.51     4.81     0.35     4.16    31.03     9.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Forest_Green     21   33   +9       5.07    77.80    10.41    66.12     7.32     7.37     0.18     2.64    25.44     6.73P    0.07R    0.01  
Exeter           21   31   +6      -1.57    40.83     0.31    69.68     7.43    12.53     0.62     6.82    43.49    16.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        21   31   +0       1.96    62.11    -0.37    64.66     7.28    -0.80     0.10     1.51    18.68     4.66P    0.14R    0.01  
Swindon          21   30   -4       0.50    53.71    -5.10    65.80     7.37    -1.84     0.11     2.10    22.77     6.40P    0.12R    0.00  
Oldham           21   29   +7      -5.48    21.10    -1.46    69.27     7.46    15.87     0.55     6.56    42.45    17.34P    0.03R    0.01  
Carlisle         21   27   -2      -2.59    35.12    -3.10    62.20     7.40    -0.46     0.05     0.80    11.88     3.18P    0.47R    0.06  
Northampton      21   26   -2      -4.06    27.87    -3.88    62.31     7.57     1.02     0.05     0.86    12.86     3.63P    0.47R    0.04  
Port_Vale        21   26   -3      -0.62    46.98    -0.19    59.53     7.19    -3.96     0.01     0.25     5.86     1.24P    0.93R    0.11  
Crawley_Town     20   26   -4       1.14    57.69     0.05    58.09     7.44    -9.64     0.01     0.20     4.38     0.93P    1.88R    0.27  
Crewe            21   25   -5      -1.23    43.51    -1.20    55.86     7.24   -10.13     0.00     0.07     2.26     0.45P    3.24R    0.43  
Grimsby          21   22   -9      -1.26    43.22    -1.12    50.25     7.02   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P   13.31R    2.43  
Morecambe        21   22  -13      -0.93    45.39    -4.43    48.86     6.92   -23.83     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.01P   18.90R    3.88  
Yeovil           19   21   +0      -3.03    31.94     3.03    54.97     7.66    -4.60     0.01     0.07     2.35     0.48P    4.76R    0.75  
Cheltenham       20   20  -11      -3.33    30.51    -4.53    50.60     7.39   -18.72     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.09P   13.76R    2.73  
Cambridge_Utd    21   19  -16      -5.39    20.18    -9.59    49.27     7.21   -21.85     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   18.14R    3.89  
Notts_County     21   16  -21      -8.66     8.84   -14.17    46.10     7.34   -27.66     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   33.34R    8.94  
Macclesfield     21   13  -22      -4.33    24.07    -4.21    34.33     6.59   -41.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.32R   76.44  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 December 2018, Barrow 1 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      24   50  +30       6.87    83.58    14.84    89.94     6.60    44.67    52.18    97.07    67.01P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       24   49  +26       8.68    87.90    14.65    85.33     6.98    35.33    22.49    87.69    39.60P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     24   46  +19       8.76    87.27    12.26    80.43     7.16    25.57     7.75    67.38    20.28P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            23   46  +16       9.68    92.14     8.94    81.53     6.73    22.13     8.55    72.77    24.39P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     23   44  +13      11.51    95.08    11.42    76.07     6.81    14.30     1.94    40.71     8.68P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          24   42  +20       1.20    56.22     8.02    79.47     6.70    30.98     5.48    64.87    23.20P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          23   39   +9       4.43    73.80     4.24    74.48     6.87    14.91     1.07    33.01     8.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      23   37   +4       3.92    71.63     1.60    70.98     6.92     7.88     0.38    16.62     3.78P    0.05R    0.00  
Eastleigh          24   36   -1       4.90    75.65     1.38    65.44     6.66    -1.99     0.01     3.91     0.66P    0.34R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   24   34   +5      -0.22    49.20     2.69    66.35     6.66     8.46     0.03     5.51     1.28P    0.19R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       23   31   -1      -1.30    42.86    -2.65    63.38     6.78     0.75     0.01     2.24     0.50P    0.89R    0.01  
Barrow             24   31   -2      -0.65    46.97    -0.46    57.84     6.56    -6.48     0.00     0.33     0.08P    5.13R    0.02  
Hartlepool         24   31   -6      -0.14    49.69    -3.67    58.69     6.52    -9.24     0.00     0.36     0.07P    4.04R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          24   28   -4      -6.14    19.93    -6.15    57.96     6.72    -4.19     0.00     0.32     0.07P    5.13R    0.06  
Barnet             21   28   -4      -4.26    26.46    -9.40    66.27     7.49     2.01     0.10     6.65     1.90P    0.67R    0.00  
Halifax            22   26   -5       0.38    53.33     0.84    54.02     6.80   -11.37     0.00     0.05     0.01P   15.37R    0.28  
Aldershot          24   25  -19      -3.98    28.59   -13.57    52.57     6.62   -22.27     0.00     0.02     0.00P   22.51R    0.59  
Bromley            23   24   -8      -6.29    18.64    -5.99    54.58     7.03    -9.73     0.00     0.10     0.01P   14.35R    0.32  
Havant_&_Wville    24   24   -9      -2.45    38.02     2.11    47.62     6.83   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.65R    2.23  
Chesterfield       23   23   -4     -11.43     5.01    -8.61    57.62     6.95     0.69     0.00     0.37     0.10P    6.24R    0.09  
Dover_Athletic     24   21  -18      -9.12     9.67   -13.93    49.76     6.71   -19.93     0.00     0.01     0.00    36.19R    1.61  
Maidenhead         23   21  -22      -2.88    34.41    -9.83    44.79     6.57   -34.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.15R    6.71  
Maidstone_United   23   19  -16      -4.90    23.47    -5.02    43.37     6.52   -26.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.38R    8.56  
Braintree_Town     24   14  -23      -6.82    15.05    -3.71    32.16     6.12   -41.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.73R   79.49