Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 9 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 5 December 2018, Burnley 1 3 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         15   41  +38       4.63    87.38     7.03    96.27     5.55    81.88    85.40    97.92    99.66    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   39  +24       8.14    95.90     6.65    86.96     6.37    50.60    12.36    70.96    89.91    97.19    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        15   33  +12       4.12    78.64    -1.53    79.65     6.43    36.29     1.51    18.13    55.79    81.24    99.55     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   31  +18       1.26    58.46     3.32    74.48     6.58    36.77     0.34     5.62    24.03    53.67    97.79     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          15   31  +14       3.85    76.13     3.04    75.49     6.58    35.73     0.38     7.15    28.69    60.06    98.37     0.00     0.00  
Everton          15   23   +4       0.99    57.75     2.35    53.92     6.84     1.90     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.26    10.94     0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth      15   23   +3       2.96    71.25     5.22    51.19     6.75    -4.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     5.33     0.17R    0.00  
Man_Utd          15   23   -1      -2.82    29.70    -8.48    64.82     6.67    14.96     0.00     0.21     1.85     7.31    75.45     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        15   22   +3      -0.13    49.30     1.09    51.71     6.73    -1.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16     6.51     0.13R    0.00  
Brighton         15   21   -2       3.55    75.91     3.51    46.70     6.55   -11.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.41     1.02R    0.06  
Watford          15   20   -3       3.01    72.34     3.52    46.31     6.58   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.23     1.35R    0.08  
Wolverhampton    15   19   -3       1.99    65.74     3.02    45.42     6.78   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.03     2.06R    0.12  
West_Ham         15   18   -3       0.66    56.20     3.41    47.78     6.83    -7.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.11     1.04R    0.07  
Newcastle        15   13   -8      -4.35    20.12    -2.81    40.88     6.56   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     7.48R    0.85  
Crystal_Palace   15   12   -9      -5.00    16.80    -3.34    38.08     6.53   -18.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    15.15R    2.20  
Cardiff          15   11  -16      -2.43    32.29    -2.66    32.01     6.44   -34.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    49.47R   14.22  
Huddersfield     15   10  -16      -2.18    33.38    -1.85    27.77     5.74   -39.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.02R   34.75  
Southampton      15    9  -16      -6.48     9.24    -6.90    34.77     6.49   -25.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.69R    6.83  
Burnley          15    9  -18      -6.84     8.16   -10.04    32.13     6.28   -32.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.62R   12.57  
Fulham           15    9  -21      -4.06    20.58    -4.56    29.20     6.38   -42.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.75R   28.24  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 December 2018, West_Brom 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         20   40  +13       9.68    92.77     8.66    80.59     7.64    20.39    21.15    38.68    82.84    47.74P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    20   39  +16       8.10    89.43    10.71    79.92     7.69    23.85    19.22    36.37    81.24    46.86P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       20   35  +14      -0.58    45.86     1.26    81.14     7.79    30.29    26.02    44.77    84.92    57.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   20   35   +9       2.14    62.78     1.18    78.76     7.35    20.69    13.81    29.20    77.64    44.04P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   34  +11       5.84    81.66     9.90    70.38     7.68    11.94     2.17     6.09    35.82    11.76P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       20   34   +8       4.19    73.78     4.46    73.00     7.63    12.89     4.18    10.52    48.59    18.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           20   34   +6       1.96    61.58    -0.82    75.40     7.57    14.61     6.97    16.56    60.77    27.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   31   +9      -2.58    34.34    -0.45    72.96     7.65    18.55     4.63    11.39    50.21    22.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      20   30   +6       5.53    81.20    10.47    61.80     7.45     0.28     0.10     0.42     6.88     1.43P    1.23R    0.08  
Blackburn       20   29   -4       2.58    65.85    -2.25    62.42     7.70    -7.58     0.17     0.62     8.00     1.95P    1.30R    0.07  
QPR             20   28   -5       3.47    70.98    -0.31    58.79     7.35   -12.86     0.03     0.15     2.99     0.62P    3.46R    0.26  
Stoke           20   27   +0      -3.20    31.77    -4.02    66.69     7.80     6.15     0.75     2.29    20.48     7.23P    0.32R    0.01  
Swansea         20   26   +1      -4.26    25.89    -3.31    65.42     7.77     6.57     0.46     1.59    15.93     5.44P    0.53R    0.03  
Bristol_City    20   26   +0      -1.61    40.68    -0.19    61.33     7.52    -0.68     0.12     0.43     6.31     1.62P    1.64R    0.07  
Wigan           20   25   -5      -2.48    35.55    -5.16    61.13     7.66    -4.23     0.09     0.37     6.04     1.77P    1.96R    0.17  
Sheff_Wed       20   23  -11      -2.00    38.74    -6.99    56.31     7.59   -14.97     0.02     0.05     1.55     0.32P    7.72R    0.86  
Brentford       20   22   +2      -7.06    14.03    -0.20    60.74     7.73     6.56     0.10     0.37     6.16     1.78P    2.28R    0.17  
Preston         20   22   -4      -5.16    21.48    -3.37    57.83     7.70    -4.03     0.02     0.10     2.77     0.67P    5.11R    0.54  
Hull            20   20   -9      -5.45    20.37    -5.83    52.98     7.42   -13.65     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.12P   15.11R    2.00  
Rotherham       20   20  -11      -0.26    49.81     0.53    46.11     7.32   -26.19     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   48.36R   12.46  
Reading         20   18   -6      -5.38    20.04     0.87    48.26     7.44   -14.60     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   33.89R    7.01  
Millwall        20   18   -9      -6.77    14.58    -4.85    50.45     7.45   -13.87     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.04P   23.71R    4.00  
Bolton          20   18  -13      -1.10    43.95    -0.90    42.06     6.76   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.28R   26.42  
Ipswich         20   11  -18     -10.78     3.32    -9.38    38.94     7.13   -30.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.01R   45.85  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           19   44  +17      13.09    98.19     9.87    85.56     7.89    23.57    18.85    41.55    93.08    52.88P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.74    71.25     5.10    91.30     7.88    43.13    50.47    72.92    98.42    81.47P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                20   38  +18       4.58    74.59     8.99    81.54     7.94    29.83     9.06    24.63    85.02    40.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         20   38  +12       6.20    82.32     5.55    79.86     7.84    21.29     5.51    16.97    79.28    31.74P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley             19   35  +15       1.15    56.71     3.24    83.10     8.07    31.70    12.84    31.88    88.66    50.37P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             19   34   +9       4.16    74.05     3.52    76.54     7.87    17.09     2.65     9.19    64.80    22.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            20   32   +4       4.24    74.32     3.60    68.66     7.65     5.31     0.24     1.00    24.26     5.37P    0.39R    0.01  
Blackpool            19   31   +5       3.35    70.20     2.59    67.83     7.80     4.77     0.25     1.05    21.84     5.24P    0.63R    0.02  
Coventry             20   29   -2       4.84    77.31     2.36    60.04     7.50    -8.39     0.00     0.05     3.71     0.64P    6.05R    0.24  
Wycombe              20   28   +1       3.49    70.44     5.70    59.97     7.73    -5.12     0.02     0.07     4.23     0.73P    6.65R    0.34  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.49    70.83     2.22    59.37     7.65    -8.42     0.01     0.05     3.34     0.57P    7.71R    0.34  
Fleetwood_Town       20   27   +7      -2.22    36.95     4.52    64.65     7.67     9.93     0.06     0.35    12.56     3.02P    1.62R    0.04  
Walsall              20   27   -7       2.89    68.38    -2.01    58.88     7.43   -12.64     0.00     0.03     2.44     0.41P    8.35R    0.45  
Southend             20   26   -1      -1.17    43.55    -0.40    61.56     7.61    -1.24     0.01     0.09     5.87     1.24P    4.00R    0.16  
Shrewsbury           20   24   -2      -4.01    27.33    -2.99    60.38     7.62    -0.87     0.01     0.06     4.44     1.05P    5.59R    0.26  
Burton_Albion        19   24   -3      -2.07    38.02    -2.99    58.91     7.99    -6.30     0.01     0.06     3.63     0.84P    9.16R    0.59  
Rochdale             20   23  -11      -0.91    45.47    -5.11    55.48     7.64   -16.52     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.19P   18.64R    1.78  
Gillingham           20   21   -5      -4.09    27.01    -1.05    53.63     7.61   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.12P   23.93R    2.42  
Oxford_Utd           20   21   -6      -4.95    22.53    -3.37    54.14     7.60   -10.14     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.17P   22.10R    2.10  
Scunthorpe           20   21  -13      -5.83    19.23   -11.54    56.70     7.80   -13.62     0.00     0.02     1.79     0.37P   15.04R    1.27  
Bristol_Rovers       20   17   -4      -8.73     8.25    -1.46    49.07     7.49    -9.22     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   44.81R    7.44  
Plymouth             20   16  -16      -6.01    17.07    -7.37    45.88     7.41   -25.12     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   64.73R   17.06  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   14  -16      -6.87    12.63    -6.70    41.42     7.11   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.36R   36.40  
Bradford             20   14  -21      -7.68    10.65   -12.27    43.15     7.34   -31.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.20R   29.10  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Bury 4 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          20   40  +17       3.62    70.91     3.77    86.79     7.53    33.16    45.51    81.90    97.95    86.93P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   38  +17       6.73    85.56     9.16    83.01     7.78    28.91    24.67    65.92    94.09    73.31P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       20   35  +14       2.60    65.44     6.68    77.04     7.47    23.58     7.61    34.84    81.09    47.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   20   35   -1       8.51    90.51     0.65    67.67     7.55    -5.66     0.60     5.19    32.00     9.41P    0.06R    0.01  
Bury             20   33  +17      -2.43    35.18     4.71    77.97     7.78    31.22    10.14    42.18    83.32    55.39P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       0.99    56.17     5.82    77.24     7.65    25.18     7.99    36.22    81.15    49.67P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           20   31   +8      -0.94    43.93     1.14    71.20     7.62    14.77     1.65    12.56    53.67    23.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   31   +5       4.12    73.47     5.71    66.08     7.71     4.01     0.34     3.92    26.84     8.06P    0.15R    0.01  
Stevenage        20   31   +1       3.13    68.68     0.41    66.08     7.56     0.21     0.36     3.60    25.74     7.94P    0.14R    0.01  
Forest_Green     20   30   +8       3.63    71.82     9.72    63.97     7.51     5.55     0.19     2.17    18.81     5.28P    0.23R    0.02  
Carlisle         20   27   +0      -2.09    37.91    -2.37    63.43     7.58     1.31     0.13     1.80    16.71     5.09P    0.38R    0.03  
Swindon          20   27   -5      -0.67    46.31    -5.37    64.29     7.55    -2.66     0.17     2.00    19.03     5.68P    0.33R    0.03  
Oldham           20   26   +5      -6.25    17.37    -2.22    66.99     7.71    12.91     0.51     5.14    32.70    13.29P    0.12R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.11    63.85     0.47    60.05     7.77    -7.85     0.04     0.73     8.73     2.12P    1.39R    0.20  
Crewe            20   25   -3      -0.70    46.42    -0.41    57.77     7.47    -7.25     0.01     0.23     4.59     1.09P    2.32R    0.28  
Port_Vale        20   25   -3      -0.24    49.42    -0.21    60.07     7.42    -3.67     0.02     0.46     7.67     1.99P    1.22R    0.17  
Northampton      20   23   -3      -5.31    21.37    -4.29    60.17     7.84    -0.83     0.04     0.75     9.59     2.88P    1.37R    0.19  
Grimsby          20   22   -8      -0.28    49.21    -0.69    51.66     7.24   -16.40     0.00     0.02     0.57     0.10P   11.65R    2.12  
Yeovil           18   21   +1      -1.81    39.24     3.79    56.94     7.86    -2.67     0.02     0.32     4.53     1.15P    3.51R    0.51  
Morecambe        20   21  -13      -0.62    47.06    -4.57    49.14     7.10   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   20.00R    4.33  
Cambridge_Utd    20   19  -15      -4.48    24.16    -9.24    50.59     7.45   -20.99     0.00     0.02     0.48     0.11P   15.34R    3.35  
Cheltenham       19   17  -12      -4.61    22.96    -5.02    48.88     7.62   -19.87     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.07P   21.63R    5.08  
Notts_County     20   16  -19      -8.17    10.00   -13.54    47.23     7.51   -26.13     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   30.09R    7.70  
Macclesfield     20   13  -21      -3.61    27.65    -4.09    34.60     6.77   -42.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.06R   75.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 December 2018, Solihull_Moors 2 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      23   50  +31       7.92    87.74    15.32    91.97     6.76    46.67    56.87    98.29    70.76P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       23   49  +28       9.34    90.08    15.53    87.28     7.27    38.26    25.43    91.55    43.59P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     23   43  +16       8.46    87.25    11.38    78.45     7.40    22.00     3.62    57.20    14.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            22   43  +14       8.79    90.82     7.98    79.85     6.91    19.98     4.29    64.08    18.43P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     22   43  +13      11.63    95.55    11.09    76.42     7.05    14.28     1.60    43.58     9.08P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          23   42  +21       2.47    63.28     8.88    81.61     6.93    33.12     7.15    75.67    27.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          22   36   +7       3.74    71.05     3.59    72.62     7.13    12.59     0.47    25.20     5.74P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      22   36   +4       4.49    74.35     1.84    71.39     7.15     7.93     0.36    19.48     4.28P    0.04R    0.00  
Eastleigh          23   36   +1       5.50    78.30     2.31    66.83     6.88     0.13     0.05     6.48     1.18P    0.22R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   23   31   +4      -1.74    40.47     1.91    64.69     6.89     7.41     0.01     4.01     0.89P    0.49R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       22   28   -2      -2.76    34.24    -3.37    61.10     7.02    -1.10     0.00     1.28     0.27P    2.10R    0.02  
Barrow             23   28   -3      -1.78    40.43    -0.72    56.42     6.83    -7.28     0.00     0.24     0.05P    7.97R    0.08  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.37    30.51    -9.06    68.22     7.67     3.86     0.14    11.42     3.32P    0.35R    0.00  
Hartlepool         23   28   -7      -1.50    42.01    -4.30    57.09     6.80   -10.21     0.00     0.25     0.03P    6.93R    0.09  
Dag_&_Red          23   27   -4      -5.68    21.14    -6.00    58.81     6.95    -3.52     0.00     0.56     0.12P    4.36R    0.06  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.61    54.72     0.71    53.70     6.97   -12.37     0.00     0.11     0.01P   16.23R    0.43  
Aldershot          23   25  -16      -3.68    30.01   -12.25    54.15     6.87   -19.02     0.00     0.07     0.01P   16.09R    0.45  
Bromley            22   24   -6      -5.56    21.08    -4.95    55.98     7.26    -7.67     0.00     0.27     0.06P   10.24R    0.28  
Havant_&_Wville    23   21  -10      -3.39    32.06     2.17    46.28     7.09   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.55R    5.45  
Maidenhead         22   21  -21      -1.77    40.28    -9.15    46.21     6.78   -33.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.89R    5.90  
Chesterfield       22   20   -6     -12.47     3.40    -9.70    55.28     7.30    -2.26     0.00     0.25     0.07P   11.46R    0.40  
Maidstone_United   22   19  -15      -4.10    27.01    -4.67    44.49     6.76   -25.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.49R    8.15  
Dover_Athletic     23   18  -19     -10.63     5.73   -14.71    47.42     6.89   -22.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.94R    3.97  
Braintree_Town     23   14  -22      -6.07    17.82    -3.81    33.31     6.38   -41.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.64R   74.73