Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 8 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 5 December 2018, Burnley 1 3 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         15   41  +38       4.65    87.36     7.11    96.19     5.57    81.80    85.22    97.73    99.55    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   39  +24       8.18    95.83     6.72    86.94     6.33    50.57    12.40    70.69    89.62    97.04    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        15   33  +12       4.15    78.51    -1.47    79.65     6.45    36.30     1.51    18.27    55.26    80.88    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   31  +18       1.20    58.29     3.20    74.56     6.55    36.90     0.39     5.62    23.95    53.31    97.95     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          15   31  +14       3.74    75.38     2.84    75.67     6.60    36.14     0.48     7.47    29.72    60.67    98.41     0.00     0.00  
Everton          15   23   +4       1.01    57.78     2.38    53.81     6.85     1.76     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.32    10.59     0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth      15   23   +3       2.99    71.38     5.31    51.16     6.80    -4.22     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12     5.52     0.19R    0.01  
Man_Utd          15   23   -1      -2.87    29.41    -8.62    64.95     6.68    15.16     0.00     0.22     1.80     7.58    75.84     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        15   22   +3      -0.12    49.39     1.12    51.62     6.72    -1.83     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     6.09     0.14R    0.00  
Brighton         15   21   -2       3.55    76.00     3.54    46.64     6.53   -11.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.38     1.06R    0.06  
Watford          15   20   -3       3.09    72.95     3.61    46.29     6.59   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.27     1.32R    0.07  
Wolverhampton    15   19   -3       1.94    65.39     2.96    45.56     6.78   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.07     1.89R    0.12  
West_Ham         15   18   -3       0.69    56.26     3.48    47.78     6.83    -7.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.17     1.04R    0.06  
Newcastle        15   13   -8      -4.26    20.85    -2.66    40.70     6.54   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     7.78R    0.92  
Crystal_Palace   15   12   -9      -5.05    16.50    -3.39    38.12     6.50   -18.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    14.90R    2.19  
Cardiff          15   11  -16      -2.38    32.49    -2.56    32.00     6.42   -34.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.73R   14.20  
Huddersfield     15   10  -16      -2.14    33.58    -1.83    27.76     5.75   -39.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.75R   34.39  
Southampton      15    9  -16      -6.41     9.51    -6.78    34.69     6.56   -26.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    31.45R    7.19  
Burnley          15    9  -18      -7.01     7.75   -10.34    32.26     6.33   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.75R   12.40  
Fulham           15    9  -21      -4.07    20.36    -4.60    29.16     6.38   -42.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.94R   28.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 December 2018, West_Brom 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         20   40  +13       9.71    92.80     8.70    80.60     7.63    20.39    21.01    39.06    82.81    48.18P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    20   39  +16       8.04    89.29    10.68    80.06     7.60    24.04    19.66    37.22    81.87    47.31P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       20   35  +14      -0.53    46.18     1.32    81.12     7.82    30.24    25.96    44.25    85.04    57.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   20   35   +9       2.23    63.58     1.33    78.64     7.38    20.52    13.62    28.76    77.08    43.52P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   34  +11       5.79    81.11     9.89    70.47     7.62    12.01     2.23     6.14    36.00    11.64P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       20   34   +8       4.22    73.56     4.55    72.90     7.67    12.75     4.20    10.55    48.20    18.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           20   34   +6       2.09    62.41    -0.70    75.17     7.63    14.34     6.62    15.89    59.87    27.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   31   +9      -2.66    33.83    -0.57    72.94     7.70    18.53     4.75    11.49    50.18    22.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      20   30   +6       5.47    81.05    10.41    61.86     7.45     0.37     0.14     0.47     7.15     1.57P    1.33R    0.07  
Blackburn       20   29   -4       2.72    66.11    -2.08    62.30     7.71    -7.78     0.17     0.69     8.05     2.20P    1.42R    0.09  
QPR             20   28   -5       3.42    70.53    -0.35    58.74     7.37   -12.90     0.03     0.14     2.80     0.52P    3.81R    0.30  
Stoke           20   27   +0      -3.16    32.07    -4.01    66.72     7.81     6.14     0.77     2.39    20.55     7.13P    0.38R    0.05  
Swansea         20   26   +1      -4.40    25.27    -3.53    65.62     7.77     6.86     0.52     1.70    17.01     5.80P    0.47R    0.02  
Bristol_City    20   26   +0      -1.61    40.74    -0.17    61.32     7.53    -0.68     0.10     0.40     6.42     1.65P    1.60R    0.10  
Wigan           20   25   -5      -2.31    37.08    -4.93    60.94     7.72    -4.47     0.10     0.34     5.87     1.64P    2.28R    0.19  
Sheff_Wed       20   23  -11      -2.00    38.67    -7.00    56.33     7.50   -14.93     0.00     0.04     1.48     0.31P    7.74R    0.77  
Brentford       20   22   +2      -7.13    13.79    -0.30    60.74     7.65     6.59     0.08     0.33     5.99     1.77P    2.14R    0.18  
Preston         20   22   -4      -5.19    21.21    -3.43    57.90     7.65    -3.87     0.03     0.12     2.73     0.71P    4.88R    0.45  
Hull            20   20   -9      -5.38    20.80    -5.76    52.88     7.49   -13.78     0.00     0.02     0.51     0.12P   15.74R    2.24  
Rotherham       20   20  -11      -0.16    50.58     0.68    45.99     7.35   -26.43     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   49.06R   13.30  
Reading         20   18   -6      -5.47    19.51     0.73    48.42     7.43   -14.44     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   33.27R    6.82  
Millwall        20   18   -9      -6.89    13.97    -5.04    50.69     7.47   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.07P   22.91R    3.80  
Bolton          20   18  -13      -1.18    43.38    -0.99    42.12     6.76   -29.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.80R   26.13  
Ipswich         20   11  -18     -10.80     3.38    -9.42    38.95     7.19   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.10R   45.48  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           19   44  +17      13.12    98.22     9.92    85.62     7.82    23.67    18.92    41.83    93.17    53.25P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.77    71.59     5.13    91.22     7.84    42.99    50.55    72.93    98.44    81.68P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                20   38  +18       4.74    75.62     9.19    81.42     7.94    29.66     8.73    24.20    84.73    40.48P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         20   38  +12       6.12    82.05     5.45    79.99     7.81    21.54     5.95    17.72    79.61    32.45P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             19   35  +15       1.16    56.62     3.24    83.07     8.06    31.63    12.83    31.86    88.31    50.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton             19   34   +9       4.26    74.85     3.68    76.35     7.87    16.79     2.47     8.66    63.95    21.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            20   32   +4       4.11    73.47     3.42    68.84     7.65     5.62     0.22     1.06    24.99     5.61P    0.37R    0.01  
Blackpool            19   31   +5       3.26    69.81     2.46    67.91     7.78     4.91     0.19     0.99    21.91     5.26P    0.54R    0.00  
Coventry             20   29   -2       4.73    77.01     2.21    60.23     7.50    -8.16     0.01     0.08     3.86     0.73P    5.73R    0.23  
Wycombe              20   28   +1       3.48    70.39     5.74    60.02     7.81    -5.08     0.02     0.07     4.42     0.84P    6.76R    0.39  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.60    71.54     2.28    59.23     7.57    -8.57     0.01     0.05     3.03     0.59P    7.74R    0.37  
Fleetwood_Town       20   27   +7      -2.24    36.89     4.47    64.73     7.68    10.07     0.07     0.32    12.95     3.15P    1.49R    0.04  
Walsall              20   27   -7       2.89    68.03    -1.99    58.86     7.46   -12.69     0.01     0.03     2.53     0.43P    8.51R    0.48  
Southend             20   26   -1      -1.20    43.13    -0.41    61.53     7.62    -1.29     0.01     0.07     5.84     1.14P    4.13R    0.16  
Shrewsbury           20   24   -2      -3.98    27.26    -2.93    60.29     7.59    -0.98     0.01     0.05     4.20     0.99P    5.53R    0.29  
Burton_Albion        19   24   -3      -2.13    37.57    -3.10    59.05     8.00    -6.11     0.01     0.06     3.81     0.96P    8.92R    0.63  
Rochdale             20   23  -11      -0.95    45.23    -5.15    55.47     7.60   -16.51     0.00     0.01     1.07     0.14P   18.51R    1.64  
Gillingham           20   21   -5      -4.06    27.03    -0.98    53.66     7.58   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.10P   23.63R    2.37  
Oxford_Utd           20   21   -6      -5.05    22.25    -3.49    54.09     7.59   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.15P   21.83R    2.11  
Scunthorpe           20   21  -13      -5.62    19.95   -11.23    56.53     7.79   -13.89     0.00     0.01     1.58     0.30P   15.40R    1.41  
Bristol_Rovers       20   17   -4      -8.73     8.48    -1.43    49.03     7.48    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   45.18R    7.37  
Plymouth             20   16  -16      -5.96    17.18    -7.30    45.86     7.39   -25.22     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   64.78R   17.17  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   14  -16      -6.93    12.43    -6.77    41.45     7.11   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    83.56R   36.44  
Bradford             20   14  -21      -7.73    10.31   -12.41    43.14     7.34   -30.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   77.37R   28.88  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Bury 4 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          20   40  +17       3.61    70.98     3.71    86.85     7.56    33.22    45.95    81.99    97.92    87.31P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   38  +17       6.71    85.57     9.15    83.02     7.79    28.91    24.69    65.69    94.08    73.09P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       20   35  +14       2.61    65.64     6.69    77.00     7.51    23.53     7.29    34.96    80.51    47.28P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   20   35   -1       8.38    90.17     0.44    67.80     7.59    -5.45     0.69     5.62    32.44     9.84P    0.07R    0.00  
Bury             20   33  +17      -2.33    35.74     4.84    77.91     7.88    31.15    10.27    41.70    82.68    54.71P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       1.04    56.38     5.93    77.15     7.63    25.06     7.63    35.88    80.65    49.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter           20   31   +8      -1.02    43.62     1.07    71.29     7.63    14.88     1.66    12.81    53.53    23.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   31   +5       4.18    73.69     5.83    65.97     7.77     3.87     0.38     3.75    26.50     8.05P    0.17R    0.02  
Stevenage        20   31   +1       3.00    67.84     0.22    66.18     7.58     0.35     0.31     3.60    26.07     7.82P    0.12R    0.02  
Forest_Green     20   30   +8       3.56    71.25     9.58    64.10     7.52     5.75     0.19     2.16    19.48     5.32P    0.24R    0.01  
Carlisle         20   27   +0      -2.08    37.66    -2.36    63.41     7.59     1.30     0.15     1.76    16.70     5.17P    0.33R    0.02  
Swindon          20   27   -5      -0.69    46.20    -5.44    64.31     7.58    -2.58     0.15     2.17    19.19     5.80P    0.36R    0.04  
Oldham           20   26   +5      -6.38    16.87    -2.39    67.12     7.81    13.12     0.51     5.43    33.45    13.88P    0.12R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.15    64.05     0.55    59.94     7.72    -8.06     0.04     0.65     8.31     1.91P    1.50R    0.23  
Crewe            20   25   -3      -0.66    46.64    -0.32    57.80     7.47    -7.26     0.01     0.24     4.73     1.07P    2.43R    0.32  
Port_Vale        20   25   -3      -0.10    50.15    -0.03    59.90     7.41    -3.90     0.02     0.46     7.47     1.77P    1.18R    0.12  
Northampton      20   23   -3      -5.33    21.40    -4.35    60.26     7.90    -0.67     0.05     0.82     9.75     2.97P    1.38R    0.18  
Grimsby          20   22   -8      -0.33    49.06    -0.80    51.77     7.18   -16.23     0.00     0.02     0.67     0.13P   11.14R    1.88  
Yeovil           18   21   +1      -1.79    39.33     3.82    56.92     7.90    -2.75     0.02     0.28     4.72     1.10P    3.61R    0.51  
Morecambe        20   21  -13      -0.45    48.10    -4.30    48.97     7.11   -24.17     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P   20.69R    4.29  
Cambridge_Utd    20   19  -15      -4.49    24.11    -9.24    50.55     7.40   -21.06     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.09P   15.49R    3.33  
Cheltenham       19   17  -12      -4.61    23.07    -4.98    48.91     7.61   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P   21.39R    5.07  
Notts_County     20   16  -19      -8.19     9.64   -13.60    47.29     7.43   -26.02     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   29.25R    7.24  
Macclesfield     20   13  -21      -3.61    27.90    -4.04    34.49     6.73   -43.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.52R   76.71  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 December 2018, Solihull_Moors 2 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      23   50  +31       8.04    88.03    15.49    91.97     6.81    46.57    56.62    98.21    70.35P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       23   49  +28       9.21    89.93    15.33    87.43     7.21    38.46    26.11    91.99    44.12P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     23   43  +16       8.45    87.25    11.35    78.49     7.35    21.98     3.46    57.16    14.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            22   43  +14       8.69    90.55     7.83    79.88     6.87    20.06     4.15    64.25    18.58P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     22   43  +13      11.79    95.93    11.25    76.37     7.05    14.17     1.66    42.79     8.75P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          23   42  +21       2.46    63.41     8.90    81.61     6.93    33.12     6.98    75.22    27.71P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          22   36   +7       3.57    70.01     3.40    72.75     7.15    12.77     0.49    25.83     6.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      22   36   +4       4.36    73.90     1.70    71.44     7.18     8.03     0.32    19.58     4.26P    0.03R    0.00  
Eastleigh          23   36   +1       5.61    79.00     2.47    66.65     6.90    -0.12     0.03     6.19     1.04P    0.24R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   23   31   +4      -1.64    40.97     2.03    64.64     6.90     7.37     0.01     3.96     0.80P    0.46R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       22   28   -2      -2.76    34.36    -3.34    61.07     7.04    -1.11     0.01     1.36     0.33P    2.19R    0.02  
Barrow             23   28   -3      -1.75    40.67    -0.65    56.31     6.76    -7.40     0.00     0.21     0.03P    7.95R    0.12  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.47    29.63    -9.22    68.39     7.78     4.06     0.16    11.88     3.41P    0.38R    0.00  
Hartlepool         23   28   -7      -1.53    41.79    -4.35    57.07     6.77   -10.22     0.00     0.27     0.04P    6.87R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red          23   27   -4      -5.51    21.82    -5.76    58.74     6.95    -3.62     0.00     0.55     0.11P    4.40R    0.08  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.49    53.91     0.54    53.77     6.99   -12.25     0.00     0.09     0.01P   16.20R    0.48  
Aldershot          23   25  -16      -3.70    29.67   -12.32    54.10     6.80   -19.05     0.00     0.07     0.01P   15.98R    0.45  
Bromley            22   24   -6      -5.58    20.98    -4.99    55.98     7.27    -7.70     0.00     0.24     0.04P   10.47R    0.26  
Havant_&_Wville    23   21  -10      -3.46    31.93     2.13    46.30     7.06   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.24R    5.39  
Maidenhead         22   21  -21      -1.73    40.85    -9.13    46.20     6.77   -33.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.14R    5.84  
Chesterfield       22   20   -6     -12.28     3.49    -9.48    55.13     7.20    -2.49     0.00     0.15     0.06P   11.61R    0.32  
Maidstone_United   22   19  -15      -3.95    27.77    -4.45    44.34     6.72   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.55R    8.34  
Dover_Athletic     23   18  -19     -10.86     5.49   -15.06    47.61     6.92   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.85R    3.80  
Braintree_Town     23   14  -22      -5.96    18.13    -3.65    33.29     6.40   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.42R   74.79