Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 7 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 5 December 2018, Burnley 1 3 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         15   41  +38       4.65    87.44     7.09    96.24     5.56    81.84    85.29    97.85    99.63    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   39  +24       8.11    95.72     6.62    86.98     6.36    50.58    12.42    70.97    89.55    96.93    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        15   33  +12       4.14    78.64    -1.47    79.65     6.42    36.25     1.50    18.01    55.58    80.96    99.55     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   31  +18       1.22    58.26     3.23    74.60     6.58    36.97     0.35     5.70    24.52    54.03    97.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          15   31  +14       3.83    76.12     2.98    75.61     6.56    36.01     0.44     7.26    28.93    60.27    98.47     0.00     0.00  
Everton          15   23   +4       1.04    58.03     2.44    53.77     6.80     1.68     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.29    10.55     0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth      15   23   +3       2.96    71.18     5.25    51.10     6.74    -4.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     5.32     0.18R    0.00  
Man_Utd          15   23   -1      -2.84    29.54    -8.51    64.84     6.69    14.98     0.01     0.20     1.70     7.28    75.50     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        15   22   +3      -0.09    49.58     1.16    51.60     6.76    -1.86     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15     6.35     0.15R    0.01  
Brighton         15   21   -2       3.56    76.05     3.51    46.71     6.54   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.40     1.00R    0.06  
Watford          15   20   -3       3.04    72.58     3.51    46.22     6.61   -13.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.24     1.30R    0.09  
Wolverhampton    15   19   -3       1.91    65.21     2.89    45.60     6.74   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.18     1.80R    0.13  
West_Ham         15   18   -3       0.63    55.64     3.36    47.83     6.85    -7.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.26     0.99R    0.07  
Newcastle        15   13   -8      -4.33    20.48    -2.76    40.86     6.54   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     7.42R    0.86  
Crystal_Palace   15   12   -9      -5.01    16.82    -3.33    38.14     6.51   -18.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    14.98R    2.17  
Cardiff          15   11  -16      -2.41    32.31    -2.64    32.06     6.42   -34.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.39R   13.89  
Huddersfield     15   10  -16      -2.13    33.75    -1.74    27.72     5.76   -39.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.10R   34.74  
Southampton      15    9  -16      -6.41     9.44    -6.79    34.72     6.56   -26.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    31.23R    6.95  
Burnley          15    9  -18      -6.90     8.00   -10.12    32.15     6.30   -32.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    47.10R   12.77  
Fulham           15    9  -21      -4.10    20.33    -4.68    29.15     6.39   -42.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.31R   28.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 December 2018, West_Brom 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         20   40  +13       9.64    92.83     8.61    80.59     7.60    20.36    20.67    38.62    82.84    48.22P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    20   39  +16       8.00    89.32    10.67    80.01     7.65    23.93    19.57    36.88    81.46    47.13P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       20   35  +14      -0.64    45.63     1.15    81.26     7.79    30.52    26.23    45.08    85.50    57.53P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   20   35   +9       2.30    64.03     1.37    78.63     7.40    20.52    13.61    28.72    76.71    43.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   34  +11       5.80    81.64     9.88    70.46     7.60    12.03     2.25     6.03    36.07    11.70P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       20   34   +8       4.45    74.72     4.86    72.66     7.67    12.42     4.09    10.04    46.70    18.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Derby           20   34   +6       1.90    61.39    -0.99    75.43     7.56    14.72     7.01    16.56    61.42    28.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   31   +9      -2.54    34.82    -0.41    72.98     7.69    18.54     4.65    11.36    50.43    22.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      20   30   +6       5.56    81.24    10.51    61.80     7.41     0.28     0.13     0.49     6.89     1.47P    1.10R    0.04  
Blackburn       20   29   -4       2.77    66.83    -1.97    62.22     7.70    -7.89     0.19     0.60     7.80     1.96P    1.44R    0.10  
QPR             20   28   -5       3.54    71.01    -0.16    58.53     7.36   -13.23     0.05     0.14     2.71     0.49P    3.84R    0.26  
Stoke           20   27   +0      -3.14    32.03    -3.98    66.69     7.78     6.11     0.71     2.32    20.24     7.21P    0.37R    0.01  
Swansea         20   26   +1      -4.56    24.61    -3.74    65.74     7.74     7.08     0.49     1.69    17.27     5.97P    0.46R    0.02  
Bristol_City    20   26   +0      -1.75    39.61    -0.36    61.50     7.60    -0.39     0.10     0.49     6.63     1.83P    1.65R    0.15  
Wigan           20   25   -5      -2.45    36.09    -5.13    61.02     7.79    -4.37     0.12     0.40     6.14     1.77P    2.25R    0.19  
Sheff_Wed       20   23  -11      -1.94    38.74    -6.94    56.18     7.50   -15.17     0.01     0.06     1.35     0.30P    8.09R    0.91  
Brentford       20   22   +2      -7.09    14.02    -0.27    60.66     7.71     6.45     0.08     0.34     6.13     1.70P    2.27R    0.21  
Preston         20   22   -4      -5.24    21.11    -3.45    57.93     7.73    -3.85     0.04     0.15     2.87     0.79P    5.01R    0.47  
Hull            20   20   -9      -5.44    20.36    -5.84    52.97     7.44   -13.67     0.01     0.01     0.51     0.09P   15.64R    2.20  
Rotherham       20   20  -11      -0.13    50.89     0.74    46.03     7.30   -26.36     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   48.87R   12.87  
Reading         20   18   -6      -5.49    19.54     0.72    48.48     7.42   -14.36     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   33.07R    6.73  
Millwall        20   18   -9      -6.65    14.98    -4.61    50.36     7.43   -14.04     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.03P   24.10R    4.15  
Bolton          20   18  -13      -1.25    43.28    -1.12    42.21     6.81   -29.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   70.25R   26.37  
Ipswich         20   11  -18     -10.88     3.42    -9.52    39.08     7.20   -29.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.48R   45.31  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           19   44  +17      13.15    98.22     9.98    85.47     7.81    23.43    18.17    41.29    92.94    52.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.67    70.83     4.98    91.42     7.87    43.26    51.84    73.93    98.50    82.35P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                20   38  +18       4.73    75.61     9.23    81.36     7.97    29.55     8.72    24.18    84.42    40.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         20   38  +12       6.07    81.69     5.39    79.96     7.71    21.49     5.75    17.53    79.99    32.29P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             19   35  +15       1.27    57.18     3.38    83.00     8.04    31.52    12.69    31.77    88.43    50.09P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             19   34   +9       4.33    75.00     3.79    76.20     7.86    16.60     2.29     8.37    63.16    21.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            20   32   +4       4.07    73.27     3.35    68.94     7.69     5.78     0.22     1.16    25.46     5.97P    0.38R    0.01  
Blackpool            19   31   +5       3.28    69.86     2.46    68.02     7.76     5.07     0.23     1.05    22.55     5.45P    0.57R    0.01  
Coventry             20   29   -2       4.73    76.97     2.22    60.20     7.49    -8.18     0.01     0.08     3.82     0.70P    5.90R    0.25  
Wycombe              20   28   +1       3.58    71.06     5.91    59.81     7.67    -5.42     0.01     0.05     3.95     0.71P    6.78R    0.38  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.53    71.16     2.20    59.37     7.58    -8.35     0.01     0.05     3.25     0.57P    7.45R    0.43  
Fleetwood_Town       20   27   +7      -2.28    36.66     4.39    64.84     7.65    10.21     0.04     0.34    13.19     3.30P    1.50R    0.03  
Walsall              20   27   -7       2.76    67.26    -2.24    58.96     7.42   -12.48     0.00     0.03     2.55     0.44P    8.33R    0.44  
Southend             20   26   -1      -1.24    42.89    -0.51    61.59     7.58    -1.19     0.01     0.08     5.79     1.19P    3.98R    0.15  
Shrewsbury           20   24   -2      -3.99    27.02    -2.94    60.33     7.55    -0.86     0.00     0.03     4.31     0.91P    5.22R    0.24  
Burton_Albion        19   24   -3      -1.85    39.62    -2.69    58.71     7.94    -6.65     0.00     0.04     3.41     0.76P    9.37R    0.65  
Rochdale             20   23  -11      -0.84    45.76    -5.03    55.29     7.55   -16.77     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.16P   19.08R    1.85  
Gillingham           20   21   -5      -4.18    26.64    -1.19    53.77     7.69   -10.00     0.00     0.01     0.81     0.17P   23.80R    2.50  
Oxford_Utd           20   21   -6      -4.96    22.72    -3.37    54.01     7.65   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.15P   22.39R    2.25  
Scunthorpe           20   21  -13      -5.80    19.42   -11.48    56.62     7.76   -13.71     0.00     0.01     1.56     0.35P   15.09R    1.32  
Bristol_Rovers       20   17   -4      -8.57     8.70    -1.24    48.89     7.47    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   45.89R    7.82  
Plymouth             20   16  -16      -6.06    16.79    -7.46    45.96     7.42   -25.07     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   64.33R   16.91  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   14  -16      -6.97    12.46    -6.79    41.60     7.10   -27.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.96R   36.11  
Bradford             20   14  -21      -7.74    10.57   -12.38    43.24     7.35   -30.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   76.96R   28.65  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Bury 4 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          20   40  +17       3.64    71.10     3.78    86.83     7.55    33.21    45.94    82.09    97.95    87.20P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   38  +17       6.71    85.41     9.17    82.99     7.81    28.87    24.67    65.69    93.90    73.38P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       20   35  +14       2.70    65.75     6.81    76.99     7.53    23.49     7.32    34.74    80.55    46.93P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   20   35   -1       8.53    90.62     0.67    67.67     7.59    -5.66     0.60     5.31    32.12     9.40P    0.07R    0.00  
Bury             20   33  +17      -2.49    34.92     4.61    78.03     7.86    31.35    10.41    42.44    83.17    55.54P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       0.96    56.05     5.78    77.26     7.66    25.22     7.83    36.48    81.24    49.61P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           20   31   +8      -0.81    44.96     1.42    71.02     7.57    14.46     1.55    11.95    52.38    22.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   31   +5       4.03    73.27     5.64    66.08     7.78     4.02     0.33     3.80    27.25     8.33P    0.19R    0.01  
Stevenage        20   31   +1       2.99    68.05     0.21    66.11     7.51     0.26     0.33     3.56    26.22     7.99P    0.13R    0.01  
Forest_Green     20   30   +8       3.63    71.68     9.68    63.97     7.51     5.54     0.16     2.13    18.73     4.97P    0.23R    0.02  
Carlisle         20   27   +0      -1.96    38.59    -2.19    63.25     7.58     1.07     0.15     1.71    16.36     5.08P    0.35R    0.03  
Swindon          20   27   -5      -0.67    46.49    -5.44    64.38     7.65    -2.53     0.15     2.13    19.52     5.93P    0.37R    0.02  
Oldham           20   26   +5      -6.42    16.46    -2.42    67.17     7.71    13.20     0.45     5.44    33.83    13.76P    0.11R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.20    64.39     0.60    59.93     7.75    -8.04     0.05     0.69     8.41     2.09P    1.50R    0.19  
Crewe            20   25   -3      -0.70    46.40    -0.41    57.91     7.50    -7.07     0.01     0.33     5.08     1.27P    2.26R    0.27  
Port_Vale        20   25   -3      -0.16    49.73    -0.10    59.93     7.42    -3.83     0.02     0.49     7.43     1.91P    1.17R    0.16  
Northampton      20   23   -3      -5.37    21.04    -4.37    60.20     7.80    -0.72     0.03     0.69     9.37     2.80P    1.37R    0.18  
Grimsby          20   22   -8      -0.27    49.41    -0.71    51.65     7.21   -16.38     0.00     0.02     0.61     0.15P   11.72R    2.07  
Yeovil           18   21   +1      -1.78    39.32     3.82    56.85     7.88    -2.85     0.01     0.29     4.63     1.09P    3.59R    0.55  
Morecambe        20   21  -13      -0.52    47.99    -4.40    49.04     7.12   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.02P   20.64R    4.38  
Cambridge_Utd    20   19  -15      -4.44    24.33    -9.16    50.55     7.39   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.11P   15.68R    3.33  
Cheltenham       19   17  -12      -4.72    22.71    -5.13    49.10     7.62   -19.57     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.08P   21.11R    4.91  
Notts_County     20   16  -19      -8.29     9.48   -13.74    47.36     7.46   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   29.30R    7.44  
Macclesfield     20   13  -21      -3.61    27.89    -4.11    34.61     6.79   -42.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.19R   76.42  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 December 2018, Solihull_Moors 2 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      23   50  +31       7.88    87.45    15.31    92.00     6.78    46.69    57.49    98.24    71.31P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       23   49  +28       9.36    90.36    15.55    87.22     7.22    38.12    24.89    91.41    42.90P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     23   43  +16       8.50    87.22    11.44    78.33     7.39    21.80     3.43    56.33    13.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham            22   43  +14       8.77    90.59     7.92    79.84     6.92    20.01     4.23    64.27    18.32P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     22   43  +13      11.78    95.89    11.27    76.25     7.01    14.06     1.57    42.19     8.64P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          23   42  +21       2.39    63.14     8.78    81.72     6.87    33.25     7.38    76.12    28.20P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          22   36   +7       3.52    70.14     3.31    72.82     7.11    12.94     0.47    25.78     6.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      22   36   +4       4.23    73.44     1.47    71.66     7.18     8.32     0.33    20.51     4.53P    0.03R    0.00  
Eastleigh          23   36   +1       5.68    79.44     2.52    66.68     6.86    -0.05     0.04     6.23     1.10P    0.18R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   23   31   +4      -1.65    41.07     2.02    64.72     6.93     7.45     0.02     3.99     0.88P    0.54R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood       22   28   -2      -2.76    34.41    -3.33    61.10     7.02    -1.11     0.00     1.41     0.30P    1.98R    0.02  
Barrow             23   28   -3      -1.79    40.47    -0.74    56.34     6.81    -7.38     0.00     0.19     0.03P    8.20R    0.10  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.40    30.41    -9.11    68.30     7.76     3.90     0.15    11.84     3.30P    0.33R    0.00  
Hartlepool         23   28   -7      -1.50    41.98    -4.29    57.09     6.79   -10.24     0.00     0.30     0.05P    6.82R    0.11  
Dag_&_Red          23   27   -4      -5.62    21.33    -5.92    58.87     6.95    -3.44     0.00     0.57     0.15P    4.14R    0.04  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.64    54.81     0.71    53.72     7.03   -12.39     0.00     0.10     0.00P   16.17R    0.47  
Aldershot          23   25  -16      -3.64    30.14   -12.23    54.15     6.85   -19.01     0.00     0.07     0.02P   15.91R    0.46  
Bromley            22   24   -6      -5.57    21.02    -4.96    55.92     7.26    -7.79     0.00     0.28     0.05P   10.35R    0.27  
Havant_&_Wville    23   21  -10      -3.38    32.35     2.16    46.28     7.01   -20.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.50R    5.31  
Maidenhead         22   21  -21      -1.68    41.11    -9.00    46.14     6.84   -33.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.47R    5.96  
Chesterfield       22   20   -6     -12.44     3.33    -9.70    55.23     7.21    -2.29     0.00     0.16     0.04P   11.32R    0.30  
Maidstone_United   22   19  -15      -4.05    27.00    -4.60    44.38     6.75   -25.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.25R    8.37  
Dover_Athletic     23   18  -19     -10.83     5.49   -14.99    47.57     6.93   -21.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.19R    3.80  
Braintree_Town     23   14  -22      -5.98    18.02    -3.60    33.29     6.37   -41.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.60R   74.77