Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 6 December 2018 at 22:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 5 December 2018, Burnley 1 3 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         15   41  +38       4.73    87.94     7.28    96.12     5.58    81.58    84.95    97.64    99.52    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   39  +24       8.17    95.86     6.73    86.93     6.35    50.53    12.58    70.63    89.71    97.07    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        15   33  +12       4.11    78.65    -1.53    79.65     6.45    36.28     1.62    18.01    55.26    80.85    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   31  +18       1.20    58.05     3.23    74.61     6.61    36.97     0.39     5.97    24.50    53.58    97.73     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          15   31  +14       3.72    75.24     2.82    75.67     6.54    36.13     0.45     7.51    29.19    60.63    98.51     0.00     0.00  
Everton          15   23   +4       1.06    58.05     2.46    53.81     6.89     1.74     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.29    10.62     0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth      15   23   +3       2.92    70.95     5.16    51.14     6.74    -4.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     5.28     0.15R    0.01  
Man_Utd          15   23   -1      -2.89    29.43    -8.64    64.97     6.64    15.15     0.00     0.24     1.75     7.39    76.21     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        15   22   +3      -0.09    49.55     1.13    51.70     6.72    -1.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13     6.06     0.18R    0.01  
Brighton         15   21   -2       3.53    75.82     3.48    46.71     6.54   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.31     1.05R    0.05  
Watford          15   20   -3       3.10    73.01     3.60    46.25     6.63   -13.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.16     1.38R    0.07  
Wolverhampton    15   19   -3       2.04    66.07     3.12    45.42     6.75   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.08     2.03R    0.13  
West_Ham         15   18   -3       0.67    56.21     3.44    47.82     6.87    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.29     1.08R    0.06  
Newcastle        15   13   -8      -4.32    20.54    -2.74    40.74     6.53   -14.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     7.65R    0.91  
Crystal_Palace   15   12   -9      -4.93    17.18    -3.17    37.97     6.53   -19.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    15.40R    2.43  
Cardiff          15   11  -16      -2.44    32.05    -2.71    32.02     6.35   -34.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.52R   13.96  
Huddersfield     15   10  -16      -2.19    33.38    -1.88    27.82     5.74   -38.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.58R   34.72  
Southampton      15    9  -16      -6.46     9.25    -6.86    34.73     6.53   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    31.13R    7.05  
Burnley          15    9  -18      -6.91     8.14   -10.17    32.19     6.34   -32.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.11R   12.65  
Fulham           15    9  -21      -4.13    20.63    -4.75    29.24     6.43   -42.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.69R   27.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 December 2018, West_Brom 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         20   40  +13       9.55    92.49     8.49    80.80     7.67    20.70    21.28    39.60    83.38    48.80P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    20   39  +16       7.91    88.93    10.49    80.18     7.64    24.21    19.81    37.16    82.14    47.46P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       20   35  +14      -0.74    45.06     0.96    81.35     7.77    30.64    26.47    45.50    85.49    58.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   20   35   +9       2.11    62.91     1.13    78.75     7.40    20.70    13.70    28.88    77.45    43.49P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   34  +11       5.81    81.47     9.88    70.48     7.60    12.03     2.06     5.75    36.03    11.60P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       20   34   +8       4.21    73.86     4.54    72.89     7.63    12.83     3.91    10.13    48.05    18.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           20   34   +6       2.08    62.01    -0.68    75.18     7.54    14.35     6.35    15.38    59.97    26.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   31   +9      -2.48    35.26    -0.38    72.83     7.70    18.29     4.52    11.18    49.68    22.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      20   30   +6       5.59    81.32    10.56    61.64     7.45     0.06     0.10     0.41     6.64     1.35P    1.31R    0.05  
Blackburn       20   29   -4       2.60    65.62    -2.26    62.46     7.72    -7.61     0.21     0.65     8.26     2.10P    1.33R    0.08  
QPR             20   28   -5       3.42    70.62    -0.35    58.75     7.36   -12.95     0.04     0.15     2.99     0.62P    3.62R    0.26  
Stoke           20   27   +0      -3.19    31.79    -4.02    66.74     7.79     6.17     0.76     2.33    20.35     7.26P    0.38R    0.02  
Swansea         20   26   +1      -4.32    25.84    -3.42    65.52     7.71     6.74     0.45     1.51    16.34     5.59P    0.46R    0.02  
Bristol_City    20   26   +0      -1.61    40.79    -0.15    61.29     7.53    -0.71     0.12     0.40     6.26     1.67P    1.63R    0.10  
Wigan           20   25   -5      -2.39    36.06    -5.04    61.01     7.74    -4.41     0.10     0.42     5.99     1.79P    2.16R    0.19  
Sheff_Wed       20   23  -11      -1.99    38.68    -6.98    56.29     7.50   -14.97     0.01     0.05     1.44     0.31P    7.70R    0.92  
Brentford       20   22   +2      -7.00    14.00    -0.15    60.70     7.67     6.52     0.08     0.34     6.06     1.76P    2.20R    0.18  
Preston         20   22   -4      -5.19    21.23    -3.40    57.87     7.63    -3.96     0.04     0.14     2.69     0.62P    4.86R    0.48  
Hull            20   20   -9      -5.33    20.69    -5.69    52.88     7.45   -13.78     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.11P   15.36R    2.10  
Rotherham       20   20  -11      -0.22    49.90     0.62    46.10     7.36   -26.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   48.63R   12.60  
Reading         20   18   -6      -5.40    19.85     0.82    48.29     7.47   -14.63     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   33.72R    7.23  
Millwall        20   18   -9      -6.70    14.59    -4.70    50.38     7.44   -13.98     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   24.11R    4.05  
Bolton          20   18  -13      -1.01    44.55    -0.69    41.92     6.80   -30.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.23R   27.33  
Ipswich         20   11  -18     -10.93     3.22    -9.60    39.12     7.20   -29.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.21R   44.38  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           19   44  +17      13.12    98.22     9.94    85.58     7.83    23.62    18.63    41.49    93.03    53.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.68    71.01     5.00    91.37     7.85    43.20    51.48    73.60    98.54    82.19P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                20   38  +18       4.76    75.64     9.21    81.41     7.88    29.62     8.73    24.07    84.91    40.32P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         20   38  +12       6.21    82.13     5.59    79.84     7.82    21.31     5.77    17.20    78.99    31.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             19   35  +15       1.22    56.63     3.31    83.07     7.99    31.60    12.42    32.19    88.78    50.68P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             19   34   +9       4.24    74.93     3.67    76.26     7.85    16.70     2.43     8.47    63.74    21.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            20   32   +4       4.12    73.59     3.44    68.77     7.75     5.49     0.23     1.15    25.00     5.64P    0.46R    0.01  
Blackpool            19   31   +5       3.26    69.64     2.48    67.94     7.76     4.96     0.22     1.02    22.00     5.28P    0.54R    0.01  
Coventry             20   29   -2       4.73    76.94     2.24    60.18     7.50    -8.22     0.00     0.05     3.85     0.62P    6.01R    0.23  
Wycombe              20   28   +1       3.45    70.51     5.71    59.95     7.68    -5.20     0.01     0.08     4.23     0.71P    6.67R    0.38  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.55    71.00     2.25    59.31     7.60    -8.47     0.01     0.05     3.22     0.60P    7.64R    0.39  
Fleetwood_Town       20   27   +7      -2.21    37.04     4.55    64.78     7.73    10.08     0.05     0.37    13.11     3.38P    1.52R    0.06  
Walsall              20   27   -7       2.86    68.10    -2.06    58.92     7.50   -12.58     0.00     0.03     2.75     0.47P    8.47R    0.42  
Southend             20   26   -1      -1.22    43.27    -0.42    61.58     7.56    -1.22     0.02     0.10     5.78     1.24P    4.00R    0.13  
Shrewsbury           20   24   -2      -3.87    27.76    -2.79    60.27     7.58    -0.97     0.00     0.06     4.22     1.03P    5.44R    0.23  
Burton_Albion        19   24   -3      -1.98    38.58    -2.89    58.86     7.91    -6.40     0.00     0.06     3.55     0.85P    9.16R    0.65  
Rochdale             20   23  -11      -0.88    45.39    -5.09    55.40     7.57   -16.64     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.16P   18.66R    1.80  
Gillingham           20   21   -5      -4.08    27.20    -1.07    53.64     7.62   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.15P   24.25R    2.38  
Oxford_Utd           20   21   -6      -5.07    22.15    -3.49    54.11     7.63   -10.16     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.16P   22.21R    2.07  
Scunthorpe           20   21  -13      -5.84    19.12   -11.59    56.71     7.80   -13.60     0.00     0.02     1.62     0.38P   15.16R    1.35  
Bristol_Rovers       20   17   -4      -8.76     8.57    -1.54    49.16     7.49    -9.14     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   44.42R    7.32  
Plymouth             20   16  -16      -6.03    16.88    -7.44    45.95     7.40   -25.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   64.49R   16.71  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   14  -16      -6.89    12.58    -6.72    41.47     7.12   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.31R   36.53  
Bradford             20   14  -21      -7.70    10.36   -12.29    43.14     7.32   -31.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    77.58R   29.35  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Bury 4 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          20   40  +17       3.53    70.45     3.63    86.93     7.50    33.32    46.81    82.38    97.97    87.60P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   38  +17       6.80    85.83     9.30    82.85     7.75    28.69    23.83    65.23    93.73    72.88P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       20   35  +14       2.73    65.90     6.84    76.91     7.50    23.37     7.31    34.38    80.25    46.51P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   20   35   -1       8.58    90.84     0.71    67.62     7.53    -5.73     0.57     5.07    31.49     9.09P    0.08R    0.00  
Bury             20   33  +17      -2.41    35.16     4.75    77.98     7.74    31.24     9.95    41.96    83.60    55.25P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       1.00    56.10     5.82    77.25     7.67    25.13     7.99    36.41    80.92    49.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter           20   31   +8      -0.97    44.08     1.14    71.31     7.65    14.88     1.74    12.96    53.68    23.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   31   +5       4.05    72.94     5.62    66.22     7.81     4.21     0.39     4.23    27.52     8.60P    0.18R    0.03  
Stevenage        20   31   +1       3.01    67.89     0.26    66.15     7.58     0.29     0.36     3.55    26.03     7.93P    0.15R    0.01  
Forest_Green     20   30   +8       3.60    71.40     9.65    63.98     7.58     5.59     0.19     2.12    18.86     5.01P    0.32R    0.02  
Carlisle         20   27   +0      -2.10    37.59    -2.43    63.45     7.59     1.39     0.12     1.83    16.93     5.09P    0.39R    0.03  
Swindon          20   27   -5      -0.65    46.59    -5.39    64.30     7.57    -2.68     0.14     2.08    18.81     5.62P    0.36R    0.04  
Oldham           20   26   +5      -6.37    16.66    -2.38    67.09     7.73    13.10     0.48     5.28    33.23    13.76P    0.11R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.14    63.93     0.46    59.97     7.75    -7.98     0.05     0.72     8.27     2.02P    1.49R    0.23  
Crewe            20   25   -3      -0.65    46.88    -0.34    57.72     7.50    -7.35     0.01     0.28     4.75     1.10P    2.48R    0.26  
Port_Vale        20   25   -3      -0.20    49.42    -0.14    60.00     7.42    -3.71     0.02     0.42     7.67     1.81P    1.14R    0.15  
Northampton      20   23   -3      -5.33    21.31    -4.32    60.19     7.89    -0.72     0.04     0.77     9.65     3.02P    1.32R    0.16  
Grimsby          20   22   -8      -0.27    49.42    -0.72    51.66     7.23   -16.37     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.11P   11.42R    2.05  
Yeovil           18   21   +1      -1.85    38.93     3.75    56.99     7.88    -2.62     0.01     0.31     4.79     1.16P    3.54R    0.53  
Morecambe        20   21  -13      -0.61    47.25    -4.56    49.12     7.05   -23.92     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.04P   19.71R    4.11  
Cambridge_Utd    20   19  -15      -4.50    23.90    -9.24    50.47     7.43   -21.18     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.10P   16.06R    3.35  
Cheltenham       19   17  -12      -4.57    23.32    -4.92    48.99     7.65   -19.74     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.06P   21.13R    4.92  
Notts_County     20   16  -19      -8.17    10.00   -13.55    47.25     7.52   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   29.85R    7.54  
Macclesfield     20   13  -21      -3.58    28.12    -3.96    34.52     6.76   -43.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.25R   76.56  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 December 2018, Solihull_Moors 2 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      23   50  +31       8.04    88.19    15.52    91.94     6.79    46.59    56.97    98.32    70.65P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       23   49  +28       9.44    90.39    15.70    87.24     7.21    38.18    25.60    91.70    43.71P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     23   43  +16       8.51    87.28    11.50    78.38     7.33    21.83     3.50    56.62    14.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            22   43  +14       8.79    90.66     7.94    79.85     6.93    20.01     4.24    63.96    18.41P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     22   43  +13      11.70    95.62    11.14    76.36     7.09    14.18     1.66    43.28     9.02P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          23   42  +21       2.46    63.30     8.89    81.55     6.92    33.04     7.04    75.34    27.60P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          22   36   +7       3.59    70.11     3.38    72.71     7.12    12.76     0.47    25.84     5.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      22   36   +4       4.28    73.51     1.58    71.48     7.17     8.11     0.34    19.74     4.27P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastleigh          23   36   +1       5.51    78.53     2.38    66.74     6.89     0.02     0.03     6.42     1.09P    0.24R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   23   31   +4      -1.63    41.13     2.02    64.69     6.94     7.45     0.01     4.07     0.91P    0.55R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       22   28   -2      -2.68    34.46    -3.23    60.99     6.98    -1.25     0.00     1.25     0.27P    2.10R    0.02  
Barrow             23   28   -3      -1.84    39.99    -0.82    56.42     6.81    -7.20     0.00     0.25     0.06P    8.01R    0.07  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.46    29.68    -9.19    68.30     7.68     3.94     0.14    11.69     3.24P    0.28R    0.00  
Hartlepool         23   28   -7      -1.56    41.68    -4.38    57.19     6.79   -10.09     0.00     0.29     0.04P    6.61R    0.08  
Dag_&_Red          23   27   -4      -5.74    20.77    -6.10    58.93     6.92    -3.37     0.00     0.55     0.13P    4.10R    0.06  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.58    54.61     0.66    53.77     6.98   -12.27     0.00     0.11     0.01P   16.18R    0.45  
Aldershot          23   25  -16      -3.62    30.30   -12.16    54.05     6.86   -19.12     0.00     0.07     0.02P   16.26R    0.47  
Bromley            22   24   -6      -5.64    21.08    -5.10    55.96     7.24    -7.73     0.00     0.27     0.04P   10.43R    0.28  
Havant_&_Wville    23   21  -10      -3.27    33.02     2.36    46.21     7.04   -20.37     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.86R    5.56  
Maidenhead         22   21  -21      -1.66    41.41    -8.97    46.12     6.80   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.46R    6.05  
Chesterfield       22   20   -6     -12.53     3.12    -9.80    55.36     7.24    -2.16     0.00     0.21     0.06P   11.04R    0.32  
Maidstone_United   22   19  -15      -4.13    26.85    -4.77    44.48     6.74   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.57R    8.23  
Dover_Athletic     23   18  -19     -10.66     5.68   -14.78    47.49     6.90   -21.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.71R    3.90  
Braintree_Town     23   14  -22      -6.02    17.98    -3.77    33.35     6.44   -40.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.55R   74.49