Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 5 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 December 2018, Arsenal 4 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         14   38  +37       3.96    84.39     7.85    95.83     5.68    83.15    85.52    97.24    99.41    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        14   36  +22       7.58    95.25     6.51    85.77     6.59    49.04    11.18    63.62    84.55    94.68    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          14   31  +19       2.85    71.27     4.60    77.34     6.75    40.10     1.21    13.38    38.89    67.27    98.78     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          14   30  +14       4.18    79.10     3.02    75.69     6.83    35.23     0.64     8.95    28.87    55.96    97.88     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        14   30  +10       3.54    75.72    -1.75    78.68     6.69    35.20     1.44    16.40    45.67    73.11    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Everton          14   22   +4       1.66    63.05     2.71    54.70     7.10     2.52     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.39    12.39     0.07R    0.00  
Man_Utd          14   22   -1      -2.38    31.79    -8.40    65.38     6.91    15.12     0.01     0.40     2.50     8.39    75.36     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        14   21   +3       0.39    53.08     1.35    52.65     6.97    -0.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.19     8.04     0.18R    0.01  
Bournemouth      14   20   +2       1.95    64.96     5.14    50.41     6.90    -3.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     4.36     0.39R    0.02  
Watford          14   20   -2       3.60    76.47     2.80    46.25     6.69   -14.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.26     1.77R    0.12  
Brighton         14   18   -4       2.31    68.66     1.98    44.54     6.73   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.66     3.13R    0.23  
Wolverhampton    14   16   -4       0.21    52.92     1.78    42.51     6.88   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     6.09R    0.64  
West_Ham         14   15   -5      -0.25    49.20     2.50    46.33     7.05    -9.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.46     2.27R    0.21  
Crystal_Palace   14   12   -7      -4.13    20.71    -2.14    39.78     6.77   -16.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    11.89R    1.69  
Newcastle        14   12   -8      -4.11    20.72    -2.95    40.81     6.74   -14.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     9.10R    1.23  
Cardiff          14   11  -14      -1.70    37.31    -2.01    33.36     6.61   -32.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.19R   11.38  
Huddersfield     14   10  -15      -1.42    39.20    -1.86    28.49     5.93   -38.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.96R   32.77  
Southampton      14    9  -14      -5.94    10.84    -6.54    35.17     6.63   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    31.69R    7.12  
Burnley          14    9  -16      -6.50     8.74    -9.80    33.01     6.50   -30.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.99R   11.97  
Fulham           14    8  -21      -3.89    20.57    -4.80    29.04     6.71   -43.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.28R   32.60  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 December 2018, West_Brom 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         20   40  +13       9.62    92.69     8.57    80.72     7.63    20.55    21.20    39.07    83.33    48.22P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    20   39  +16       7.89    88.94    10.45    80.16     7.67    24.19    20.17    37.54    82.10    47.65P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       20   35  +14      -0.56    45.87     1.24    81.19     7.72    30.42    25.92    44.90    85.65    57.82P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   20   35   +9       2.15    63.19     1.16    78.68     7.38    20.57    13.56    28.73    77.16    43.79P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   34  +11       5.83    81.56     9.96    70.36     7.62    11.89     2.02     5.86    35.67    11.40P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       20   34   +8       4.37    74.40     4.81    72.71     7.65    12.42     3.95     9.83    47.30    17.70P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           20   34   +6       2.02    61.92    -0.79    75.32     7.58    14.52     6.70    16.17    60.57    27.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   31   +9      -2.52    34.80    -0.38    72.90     7.69    18.39     4.67    11.35    49.81    22.43P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      20   30   +6       5.51    81.10    10.40    61.85     7.45     0.39     0.11     0.45     7.05     1.48P    1.20R    0.06  
Blackburn       20   29   -4       2.73    66.38    -2.00    62.28     7.68    -7.83     0.18     0.61     7.84     2.03P    1.47R    0.11  
QPR             20   28   -5       3.56    71.32    -0.15    58.69     7.34   -13.08     0.03     0.13     2.73     0.55P    3.61R    0.24  
Stoke           20   27   +0      -3.24    31.68    -4.14    66.81     7.77     6.33     0.67     2.34    20.81     7.24P    0.33R    0.01  
Swansea         20   26   +1      -4.35    25.76    -3.43    65.50     7.75     6.69     0.46     1.64    16.27     5.66P    0.51R    0.02  
Bristol_City    20   26   +0      -1.68    40.33    -0.24    61.37     7.53    -0.56     0.13     0.45     6.45     1.69P    1.62R    0.07  
Wigan           20   25   -5      -2.31    36.84    -4.88    60.89     7.73    -4.57     0.10     0.39     6.02     1.67P    2.28R    0.17  
Sheff_Wed       20   23  -11      -1.91    39.22    -6.87    56.16     7.49   -15.17     0.01     0.05     1.33     0.28P    8.00R    0.94  
Brentford       20   22   +2      -7.17    13.82    -0.40    60.80     7.69     6.67     0.10     0.39     6.18     1.83P    2.16R    0.17  
Preston         20   22   -4      -5.30    20.85    -3.60    58.09     7.66    -3.60     0.02     0.10     2.88     0.69P    4.88R    0.47  
Hull            20   20   -9      -5.39    20.95    -5.74    52.87     7.49   -13.87     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.10P   15.74R    2.21  
Rotherham       20   20  -11      -0.26    49.59     0.51    46.22     7.28   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   47.74R   12.08  
Reading         20   18   -6      -5.40    20.12     0.86    48.27     7.47   -14.57     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   33.99R    7.19  
Millwall        20   18   -9      -6.72    14.83    -4.80    50.41     7.48   -13.94     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   24.28R    4.24  
Bolton          20   18  -13      -1.20    43.39    -1.04    42.11     6.80   -29.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.84R   26.55  
Ipswich         20   11  -18     -10.88     3.24    -9.49    39.06     7.24   -29.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   81.28R   45.47  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           19   44  +17      13.15    98.27     9.99    85.55     7.85    23.56    18.75    41.34    93.05    52.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.73    71.19     5.11    91.30     7.82    43.04    51.06    73.35    98.48    82.02P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                20   38  +18       4.69    75.50     9.15    81.50     7.94    29.81     8.79    24.57    85.00    40.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         20   38  +12       6.11    82.07     5.45    80.01     7.75    21.52     5.78    17.73    80.10    32.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             19   35  +15       1.30    57.22     3.41    82.88     8.12    31.34    12.59    31.43    88.16    49.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton             19   34   +9       4.25    74.86     3.64    76.33     7.85    16.78     2.48     8.62    63.83    22.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster            20   32   +4       4.12    73.57     3.44    68.80     7.66     5.57     0.25     1.14    24.95     5.61P    0.43R    0.01  
Blackpool            19   31   +5       3.33    69.96     2.59    67.80     7.76     4.76     0.18     0.96    21.81     5.18P    0.68R    0.02  
Coventry             20   29   -2       4.90    77.74     2.44    60.11     7.51    -8.36     0.01     0.06     3.78     0.69P    6.04R    0.26  
Wycombe              20   28   +1       3.53    70.57     5.82    59.87     7.74    -5.32     0.01     0.08     4.06     0.70P    7.05R    0.36  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.48    70.90     2.13    59.33     7.55    -8.40     0.00     0.04     3.14     0.57P    7.69R    0.36  
Fleetwood_Town       20   27   +7      -2.30    36.56     4.35    64.90     7.70    10.30     0.07     0.42    13.29     3.42P    1.54R    0.05  
Walsall              20   27   -7       2.84    67.61    -2.08    58.89     7.46   -12.60     0.00     0.02     2.60     0.46P    8.57R    0.46  
Southend             20   26   -1      -1.23    43.32    -0.48    61.56     7.66    -1.28     0.02     0.10     5.82     1.19P    4.30R    0.17  
Shrewsbury           20   24   -2      -3.95    27.37    -2.92    60.37     7.49    -0.86     0.01     0.05     4.20     0.93P    5.17R    0.21  
Burton_Albion        19   24   -3      -2.02    38.09    -2.92    58.91     7.90    -6.35     0.00     0.06     3.42     0.80P    8.93R    0.53  
Rochdale             20   23  -11      -0.90    45.63    -5.11    55.46     7.60   -16.55     0.00     0.01     1.05     0.22P   18.54R    1.81  
Gillingham           20   21   -5      -4.18    26.50    -1.17    53.73     7.64   -10.06     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.14P   23.69R    2.42  
Oxford_Utd           20   21   -6      -5.03    22.27    -3.47    54.14     7.65   -10.11     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.19P   21.95R    2.09  
Scunthorpe           20   21  -13      -5.73    19.64   -11.41    56.49     7.69   -13.89     0.00     0.01     1.50     0.31P   15.20R    1.37  
Bristol_Rovers       20   17   -4      -8.59     8.97    -1.28    48.92     7.47    -9.42     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   45.98R    7.78  
Plymouth             20   16  -16      -6.04    17.02    -7.41    45.89     7.44   -25.16     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   64.28R   17.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   14  -16      -6.97    12.34    -6.85    41.56     7.11   -27.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   82.97R   36.26  
Bradford             20   14  -21      -7.76    10.27   -12.41    43.28     7.35   -30.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.97R   28.80  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Bury 4 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          20   40  +17       3.63    71.07     3.80    86.82     7.53    33.19    45.97    82.03    98.06    87.33P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   38  +17       6.88    86.20     9.41    82.81     7.75    28.59    24.07    65.13    93.73    72.79P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       20   35  +14       2.73    66.14     6.86    76.88     7.48    23.34     7.19    34.23    80.10    46.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   20   35   -1       8.43    90.28     0.52    67.77     7.55    -5.49     0.62     5.31    32.32     9.50P    0.06R    0.00  
Bury             20   33  +17      -2.54    34.49     4.51    78.17     7.82    31.51    10.60    43.15    83.90    56.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       1.08    56.78     5.91    77.24     7.67    25.14     7.98    36.56    81.13    49.67P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           20   31   +8      -0.91    44.51     1.22    71.16     7.61    14.64     1.71    12.33    52.94    22.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   31   +5       4.09    73.36     5.67    66.06     7.75     4.00     0.39     4.04    26.89     8.43P    0.15R    0.02  
Stevenage        20   31   +1       3.09    68.41     0.31    66.18     7.56     0.38     0.34     3.66    26.23     8.01P    0.10R    0.01  
Forest_Green     20   30   +8       3.60    71.38     9.67    63.90     7.53     5.47     0.15     1.99    18.79     4.99P    0.26R    0.01  
Carlisle         20   27   +0      -2.15    37.25    -2.46    63.50     7.59     1.40     0.16     1.79    16.94     5.10P    0.33R    0.03  
Swindon          20   27   -5      -0.60    46.96    -5.30    64.23     7.58    -2.73     0.17     1.97    18.96     5.49P    0.32R    0.02  
Oldham           20   26   +5      -6.37    16.88    -2.35    67.04     7.70    13.03     0.50     5.21    33.09    13.62P    0.09R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.11    63.76     0.50    59.95     7.70    -8.00     0.04     0.69     8.21     2.07P    1.39R    0.20  
Crewe            20   25   -3      -0.71    46.40    -0.42    57.82     7.52    -7.20     0.01     0.29     4.81     1.09P    2.36R    0.31  
Port_Vale        20   25   -3      -0.11    50.08    -0.05    59.90     7.39    -3.86     0.03     0.46     7.34     1.76P    1.20R    0.13  
Northampton      20   23   -3      -5.34    21.38    -4.32    60.19     7.91    -0.75     0.05     0.80     9.79     2.98P    1.46R    0.18  
Grimsby          20   22   -8      -0.25    49.50    -0.67    51.65     7.22   -16.42     0.00     0.02     0.60     0.11P   11.65R    2.22  
Yeovil           18   21   +1      -1.86    38.65     3.74    57.13     7.91    -2.42     0.02     0.31     5.00     1.22P    3.38R    0.51  
Morecambe        20   21  -13      -0.63    47.05    -4.55    49.15     7.08   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   19.81R    4.26  
Cambridge_Utd    20   19  -15      -4.49    24.26    -9.20    50.46     7.39   -21.20     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.09P   16.24R    3.36  
Cheltenham       19   17  -12      -4.65    22.72    -5.09    49.03     7.60   -19.68     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.09P   21.01R    4.91  
Notts_County     20   16  -19      -8.12    10.05   -13.48    47.22     7.47   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   29.96R    7.79  
Macclesfield     20   13  -21      -3.68    27.56    -4.20    34.66     6.72   -42.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.21R   76.01  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 December 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 2 Sutton_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      23   50  +31       8.04    87.98    15.55    91.97     6.79    46.61    55.65    98.26    69.48P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       23   49  +28       9.29    90.03    15.49    87.38     7.27    38.36    25.39    91.95    43.30P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     22   43  +18       9.04    89.29    12.15    80.47     7.66    25.00     6.16    67.41    18.85P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            22   43  +14       8.82    90.89     8.03    79.76     6.91    19.90     3.90    64.23    18.28P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          23   42  +21       2.44    63.16     8.89    81.62     6.94    33.12     7.03    76.05    27.88P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     21   40  +11      10.82    94.85    10.21    74.04     7.23    11.20     0.89    31.31     6.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          22   36   +7       3.74    70.94     3.61    72.62     7.11    12.63     0.44    25.35     5.82P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      22   36   +4       4.31    73.52     1.63    71.50     7.22     8.08     0.31    20.05     4.38P    0.04R    0.00  
Eastleigh          23   36   +1       5.52    78.67     2.32    66.75     6.94     0.02     0.06     6.54     1.17P    0.26R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   23   31   +4      -1.66    40.75     2.01    64.69     6.94     7.42     0.02     4.09     0.90P    0.49R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       22   28   -2      -2.83    33.95    -3.47    61.13     7.01    -1.06     0.00     1.41     0.27P    2.13R    0.01  
Barrow             23   28   -3      -1.73    40.50    -0.60    56.27     6.80    -7.51     0.00     0.22     0.03P    8.03R    0.10  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.35    30.64    -9.00    68.23     7.72     3.79     0.15    11.52     3.27P    0.33R    0.00  
Hartlepool         23   28   -7      -1.49    42.24    -4.25    57.04     6.83   -10.32     0.00     0.29     0.05P    7.25R    0.11  
Dag_&_Red          23   27   -4      -5.72    20.79    -6.06    58.89     6.93    -3.41     0.00     0.61     0.12P    4.14R    0.06  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.59    54.51     0.64    53.69     7.02   -12.36     0.00     0.09     0.02P   16.45R    0.51  
Aldershot          23   25  -16      -3.69    29.90   -12.28    54.22     6.85   -18.90     0.00     0.08     0.01P   15.66R    0.44  
Bromley            22   24   -6      -5.58    20.95    -5.00    55.93     7.24    -7.72     0.00     0.29     0.08P   10.39R    0.25  
Havant_&_Wville    23   21  -10      -3.46    32.05     2.03    46.38     7.08   -20.12     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.11R    5.39  
Maidenhead         22   21  -21      -1.78    40.47    -9.19    46.27     6.82   -33.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.84R    5.73  
Chesterfield       22   20   -6     -12.33     3.55    -9.55    55.30     7.29    -2.27     0.00     0.24     0.06P   11.53R    0.38  
Maidstone_United   22   19  -15      -4.05    27.27    -4.63    44.49     6.74   -25.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.62R    8.25  
Dover_Athletic     23   18  -19     -10.70     5.63   -14.81    47.42     6.85   -22.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.15R    3.96  
Braintree_Town     23   14  -22      -6.01    17.74    -3.71    33.30     6.42   -41.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.56R   74.81