Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 4 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 December 2018, Arsenal 4 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         14   38  +37       3.99    84.54     7.87    95.91     5.64    83.36    85.69    97.32    99.31    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        14   36  +22       7.55    95.04     6.46    85.86     6.58    49.10    10.96    63.52    84.41    94.70    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          14   31  +19       2.93    71.72     4.72    77.27     6.73    40.02     1.17    12.82    37.82    66.54    98.79     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          14   30  +14       4.09    78.66     2.85    75.90     6.80    35.66     0.60     9.18    29.79    56.98    98.07     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        14   30  +10       3.51    75.64    -1.75    78.76     6.65    35.29     1.57    16.72    46.19    73.09    99.11     0.00     0.00  
Everton          14   22   +4       1.64    62.80     2.71    54.70     7.02     2.52     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.39    12.49     0.07R    0.00  
Man_Utd          14   22   -1      -2.44    31.11    -8.45    65.42     6.88    15.14     0.00     0.43     2.39     8.16    75.87     0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        14   21   +3       0.49    54.16     1.48    52.50     6.95    -1.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16     7.28     0.16R    0.01  
Bournemouth      14   20   +2       2.11    66.17     5.39    50.31     6.95    -3.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     4.44     0.43R    0.02  
Watford          14   20   -2       3.65    76.75     2.88    46.17     6.64   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.13     1.68R    0.10  
Brighton         14   18   -4       2.44    69.89     2.23    44.35     6.70   -14.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.63     3.38R    0.26  
Wolverhampton    14   16   -4       0.28    53.35     1.88    42.37     6.83   -15.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     6.20R    0.61  
West_Ham         14   15   -5      -0.25    49.33     2.49    46.36     7.05    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.47     2.40R    0.19  
Crystal_Palace   14   12   -7      -4.17    20.31    -2.23    39.93     6.75   -15.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    11.24R    1.54  
Newcastle        14   12   -8      -4.16    20.36    -3.03    40.82     6.72   -14.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     9.06R    1.20  
Cardiff          14   11  -14      -1.80    36.68    -2.04    33.31     6.67   -32.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    44.57R   11.85  
Huddersfield     14   10  -15      -1.42    39.33    -1.85    28.45     5.93   -38.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.58R   33.44  
Southampton      14    9  -14      -6.00    10.65    -6.69    35.28     6.66   -25.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    30.98R    7.07  
Burnley          14    9  -16      -6.52     8.87    -9.85    32.96     6.47   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.38R   11.80  
Fulham           14    8  -21      -3.99    19.91    -5.07    29.17     6.64   -43.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.87R   31.90  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 December 2018, West_Brom 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         20   40  +13       9.67    92.74     8.63    80.63     7.60    20.43    20.50    38.46    82.94    47.76P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    20   39  +16       7.91    88.90    10.48    80.21     7.61    24.24    19.91    37.41    82.38    47.77P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       20   35  +14      -0.73    44.98     1.02    81.37     7.84    30.67    27.18    45.88    85.58    58.59P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   20   35   +9       2.29    63.99     1.36    78.68     7.29    20.59    13.26    28.40    77.45    42.83P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   34  +11       5.79    81.52     9.88    70.47     7.62    12.04     2.06     5.89    35.96    11.62P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       20   34   +8       4.14    73.45     4.42    72.96     7.63    12.89     4.13    10.28    48.41    18.48P    0.03R    0.00  
Derby           20   34   +6       1.88    61.17    -0.95    75.40     7.60    14.65     6.87    16.56    60.89    28.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   31   +9      -2.42    35.54    -0.19    72.73     7.68    18.20     4.23    10.78    48.80    21.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      20   30   +6       5.54    81.32    10.49    61.75     7.46     0.28     0.11     0.41     6.90     1.46P    1.22R    0.07  
Blackburn       20   29   -4       2.74    66.50    -2.01    62.29     7.72    -7.82     0.17     0.60     7.88     2.02P    1.43R    0.09  
QPR             20   28   -5       3.56    71.37    -0.11    58.61     7.34   -13.17     0.05     0.14     2.68     0.52P    3.76R    0.28  
Stoke           20   27   +0      -3.12    32.09    -3.96    66.71     7.78     6.16     0.73     2.29    20.10     7.06P    0.34R    0.02  
Swansea         20   26   +1      -4.34    25.54    -3.45    65.52     7.68     6.71     0.46     1.51    16.26     5.62P    0.42R    0.03  
Bristol_City    20   26   +0      -1.67    40.49    -0.27    61.44     7.55    -0.47     0.10     0.43     6.62     1.73P    1.67R    0.09  
Wigan           20   25   -5      -2.43    36.04    -5.06    60.96     7.71    -4.47     0.10     0.33     5.77     1.53P    2.19R    0.19  
Sheff_Wed       20   23  -11      -1.96    38.79    -6.97    56.24     7.52   -15.03     0.01     0.07     1.46     0.33P    7.82R    0.87  
Brentford       20   22   +2      -7.17    13.92    -0.37    60.77     7.73     6.58     0.08     0.39     6.27     1.89P    2.21R    0.14  
Preston         20   22   -4      -5.23    21.24    -3.50    57.92     7.67    -3.84     0.04     0.15     2.82     0.74P    4.83R    0.45  
Hull            20   20   -9      -5.40    20.77    -5.76    52.92     7.48   -13.81     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.10P   15.37R    2.07  
Rotherham       20   20  -11      -0.08    50.87     0.83    45.98     7.30   -26.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    48.86R   12.95  
Reading         20   18   -6      -5.42    19.61     0.86    48.29     7.41   -14.57     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   33.49R    7.05  
Millwall        20   18   -9      -6.80    14.25    -4.88    50.40     7.44   -13.95     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   24.15R    4.19  
Bolton          20   18  -13      -1.22    43.42    -1.03    42.19     6.77   -29.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.42R   25.84  
Ipswich         20   11  -18     -10.82     3.38    -9.48    38.96     7.16   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.74R   45.67  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           19   44  +17      13.11    98.25     9.93    85.51     7.88    23.52    18.22    40.98    92.84    52.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.62    70.83     4.93    91.46     7.84    43.36    51.52    73.85    98.61    82.32P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                20   38  +18       4.57    74.83     9.01    81.51     7.92    29.81     8.91    24.44    85.42    40.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         20   38  +12       6.07    81.65     5.40    80.04     7.73    21.53     5.58    17.36    80.00    32.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnsley             19   35  +15       1.09    56.19     3.13    83.16     8.00    31.79    12.85    32.04    88.99    50.71P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             19   34   +9       4.32    75.03     3.76    76.23     7.85    16.62     2.34     8.49    63.34    21.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            20   32   +4       4.11    73.67     3.43    68.88     7.65     5.64     0.23     1.07    25.01     5.82P    0.44R    0.00  
Blackpool            19   31   +5       3.31    70.08     2.53    67.84     7.76     4.82     0.25     1.01    21.72     5.22P    0.55R    0.01  
Coventry             20   29   -2       4.71    76.93     2.18    60.14     7.53    -8.24     0.01     0.05     3.87     0.74P    6.06R    0.24  
Wycombe              20   28   +1       3.55    70.89     5.86    59.80     7.71    -5.43     0.00     0.05     4.12     0.74P    6.83R    0.33  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.42    70.28     2.03    59.47     7.60    -8.25     0.01     0.05     3.29     0.59P    7.48R    0.35  
Fleetwood_Town       20   27   +7      -2.01    38.47     4.78    64.55     7.65     9.79     0.05     0.33    12.19     2.82P    1.57R    0.05  
Walsall              20   27   -7       2.89    68.11    -2.02    58.83     7.46   -12.73     0.00     0.02     2.54     0.41P    8.56R    0.48  
Southend             20   26   -1      -1.19    43.34    -0.44    61.50     7.63    -1.31     0.02     0.14     5.81     1.26P    4.04R    0.19  
Shrewsbury           20   24   -2      -3.94    27.37    -2.87    60.29     7.56    -1.00     0.00     0.04     4.34     1.02P    5.52R    0.22  
Burton_Albion        19   24   -3      -2.07    38.23    -3.00    59.01     8.02    -6.21     0.00     0.04     3.75     0.86P    9.20R    0.64  
Rochdale             20   23  -11      -0.84    45.64    -5.03    55.45     7.57   -16.58     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.16P   18.49R    1.73  
Gillingham           20   21   -5      -4.07    27.05    -1.00    53.74     7.58   -10.07     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.11P   23.24R    2.26  
Oxford_Utd           20   21   -6      -5.03    22.07    -3.47    54.11     7.66   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.18P   22.06R    2.15  
Scunthorpe           20   21  -13      -5.72    19.82   -11.35    56.53     7.75   -13.90     0.00     0.01     1.50     0.32P   15.35R    1.27  
Bristol_Rovers       20   17   -4      -8.75     8.38    -1.52    49.06     7.41    -9.23     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   45.00R    7.23  
Plymouth             20   16  -16      -5.94    17.13    -7.31    45.93     7.42   -25.10     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   64.51R   16.93  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   14  -16      -6.84    13.02    -6.59    41.48     7.10   -27.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.52R   36.94  
Bradford             20   14  -21      -7.72    10.32   -12.37    43.18     7.29   -30.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   77.54R   29.00  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Bury 4 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          20   40  +17       3.61    70.78     3.73    86.86     7.60    33.22    45.75    82.10    97.99    87.31P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   38  +17       6.77    85.84     9.23    82.93     7.77    28.78    24.09    65.80    94.12    73.14P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       20   35  +14       2.75    66.12     6.81    76.93     7.49    23.39     7.39    34.15    80.43    46.68P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   20   35   -1       8.59    90.66     0.77    67.57     7.59    -5.76     0.59     5.43    32.01     9.54P    0.08R    0.01  
Bury             20   33  +17      -2.53    34.55     4.51    78.12     7.85    31.48    10.65    42.72    83.76    56.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       1.08    56.47     5.91    77.19     7.72    25.10     7.94    36.30    80.73    49.21P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           20   31   +8      -0.97    44.13     1.12    71.27     7.65    14.85     1.75    12.90    53.88    23.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   31   +5       4.10    73.51     5.71    66.03     7.71     3.91     0.38     3.81    26.84     8.25P    0.20R    0.02  
Stevenage        20   31   +1       3.02    68.04     0.26    66.17     7.50     0.33     0.33     3.51    26.33     7.91P    0.12R    0.01  
Forest_Green     20   30   +8       3.58    71.54     9.61    63.96     7.48     5.60     0.17     2.10    19.01     5.15P    0.23R    0.01  
Carlisle         20   27   +0      -2.07    37.84    -2.34    63.44     7.55     1.31     0.14     1.74    16.87     5.04P    0.34R    0.02  
Swindon          20   27   -5      -0.73    46.06    -5.48    64.28     7.63    -2.61     0.17     2.02    19.53     5.84P    0.36R    0.04  
Oldham           20   26   +5      -6.15    17.54    -2.06    66.76     7.75    12.62     0.48     4.93    32.02    12.76P    0.16R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.13    63.77     0.48    59.94     7.67    -8.01     0.04     0.70     8.11     1.96P    1.39R    0.19  
Crewe            20   25   -3      -0.62    47.02    -0.26    57.72     7.47    -7.37     0.02     0.25     4.63     1.05P    2.42R    0.30  
Port_Vale        20   25   -3      -0.00    50.88     0.16    59.80     7.41    -4.06     0.03     0.42     7.19     1.69P    1.37R    0.16  
Northampton      20   23   -3      -5.31    21.21    -4.28    60.24     7.84    -0.72     0.06     0.76     9.60     2.92P    1.43R    0.19  
Grimsby          20   22   -8      -0.30    49.26    -0.76    51.70     7.25   -16.36     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.12P   11.78R    2.16  
Yeovil           18   21   +1      -1.91    38.34     3.64    57.06     7.90    -2.47     0.01     0.32     4.91     1.17P    3.65R    0.48  
Morecambe        20   21  -13      -0.63    47.26    -4.54    49.12     7.15   -23.93     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   20.47R    4.18  
Cambridge_Utd    20   19  -15      -4.56    23.74    -9.31    50.63     7.42   -20.93     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.11P   15.62R    3.26  
Cheltenham       19   17  -12      -4.69    22.57    -5.10    49.13     7.65   -19.59     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.06P   21.23R    5.10  
Notts_County     20   16  -19      -8.32     9.36   -13.79    47.42     7.43   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   28.93R    7.28  
Macclesfield     20   13  -21      -3.60    28.04    -4.03    34.61     6.76   -42.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.20R   76.56  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 December 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 2 Sutton_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      23   50  +31       7.93    87.73    15.37    92.03     6.81    46.69    56.28    98.28    70.11P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       23   49  +28       9.35    90.32    15.56    87.36     7.25    38.29    25.02    92.03    42.87P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     22   43  +18       8.90    88.94    11.91    80.65     7.59    25.30     6.17    68.30    19.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            22   43  +14       8.72    90.47     7.90    79.90     6.92    20.06     3.88    64.44    18.45P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          23   42  +21       2.40    63.09     8.85    81.61     6.91    33.12     6.82    75.92    27.41P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     21   40  +11      10.68    94.73    10.04    74.15     7.24    11.31     0.90    31.31     6.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          22   36   +7       3.71    70.80     3.55    72.71     7.20    12.74     0.47    25.39     5.77P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      22   36   +4       4.45    74.12     1.82    71.40     7.19     7.95     0.27    19.47     4.17P    0.04R    0.00  
Eastleigh          23   36   +1       5.44    77.98     2.21    66.87     6.87     0.23     0.03     6.40     1.09P    0.20R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   23   31   +4      -1.65    41.10     2.03    64.63     6.92     7.33     0.02     3.86     0.82P    0.47R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood       22   28   -2      -2.81    34.20    -3.39    61.12     7.10    -1.07     0.00     1.40     0.31P    2.14R    0.02  
Barrow             23   28   -3      -1.73    40.62    -0.62    56.28     6.78    -7.46     0.00     0.18     0.03P    8.09R    0.13  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.43    30.04    -9.11    68.31     7.70     3.94     0.13    11.52     3.23P    0.33R    0.00  
Hartlepool         23   28   -7      -1.45    42.48    -4.19    57.01     6.81   -10.32     0.00     0.25     0.05P    7.12R    0.10  
Dag_&_Red          23   27   -4      -5.60    21.30    -5.88    58.81     6.99    -3.53     0.00     0.61     0.13P    4.32R    0.07  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.59    54.35     0.63    53.64     6.96   -12.45     0.00     0.09     0.02P   16.49R    0.44  
Aldershot          23   25  -16      -3.58    30.38   -12.13    54.07     6.83   -19.11     0.00     0.05     0.01P   15.81R    0.49  
Bromley            22   24   -6      -5.57    20.89    -4.95    55.97     7.23    -7.73     0.00     0.33     0.06P   10.08R    0.26  
Havant_&_Wville    23   21  -10      -3.49    32.11     2.02    46.31     7.05   -20.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.91R    5.23  
Maidenhead         22   21  -21      -1.68    41.19    -9.03    46.21     6.81   -33.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.43R    5.97  
Chesterfield       22   20   -6     -12.47     3.31    -9.73    55.30     7.27    -2.24     0.00     0.18     0.06P   11.44R    0.30  
Maidstone_United   22   19  -15      -3.81    28.57    -4.27    44.21     6.72   -26.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.08R    8.62  
Dover_Athletic     23   18  -19     -10.68     5.70   -14.80    47.47     6.88   -21.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.51R    3.85  
Braintree_Town     23   14  -22      -6.04    17.96    -3.79    33.35     6.40   -40.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.51R   74.52