Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 3 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 December 2018, Arsenal 4 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         14   38  +37       3.96    84.17     7.83    95.90     5.69    83.26    85.62    97.38    99.40    99.86   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        14   36  +22       7.51    95.12     6.43    85.91     6.58    49.22    11.10    64.25    84.82    94.82    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          14   31  +19       2.91    71.40     4.68    77.26     6.72    39.97     1.20    12.90    38.56    66.62    98.78     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          14   30  +14       4.14    78.88     2.95    75.88     6.80    35.60     0.68     9.08    29.48    57.35    98.05     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        14   30  +10       3.56    75.92    -1.68    78.62     6.65    35.07     1.40    15.98    45.36    72.62    99.07     0.00     0.00  
Everton          14   22   +4       1.65    62.87     2.69    54.70     7.03     2.54     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.34    12.85     0.09R    0.00  
Man_Utd          14   22   -1      -2.33    32.05    -8.31    65.25     6.91    14.89     0.00     0.39     2.28     8.02    74.53     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        14   21   +3       0.43    53.44     1.37    52.57     6.97    -0.91     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.23     7.77     0.18R    0.01  
Bournemouth      14   20   +2       2.06    65.85     5.32    50.42     7.00    -3.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     4.63     0.44R    0.03  
Watford          14   20   -2       3.66    76.91     2.88    46.18     6.69   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.25     1.84R    0.11  
Brighton         14   18   -4       2.39    69.37     2.11    44.45     6.67   -14.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.65     3.23R    0.24  
Wolverhampton    14   16   -4       0.36    53.99     2.02    42.29     6.84   -15.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44     6.43R    0.74  
West_Ham         14   15   -5      -0.31    48.85     2.44    46.43     7.10    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.61     2.34R    0.21  
Crystal_Palace   14   12   -7      -4.13    20.73    -2.18    39.76     6.74   -16.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    11.90R    1.61  
Newcastle        14   12   -8      -4.20    20.18    -3.04    40.84     6.72   -14.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     9.03R    1.32  
Cardiff          14   11  -14      -1.81    36.34    -2.13    33.41     6.63   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    43.71R   11.64  
Huddersfield     14   10  -15      -1.42    39.40    -1.86    28.52     5.92   -38.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.88R   33.06  
Southampton      14    9  -14      -6.08    10.37    -6.76    35.35     6.67   -25.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    30.88R    6.80  
Burnley          14    9  -16      -6.47     8.87    -9.77    32.89     6.45   -31.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    45.71R   11.95  
Fulham           14    8  -21      -3.94    20.23    -4.96    29.11     6.67   -43.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.33R   32.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 December 2018, Bristol_City 1 1 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         20   40  +13       9.71    93.01     8.67    80.66     7.60    20.45    19.38    37.63    83.02    47.19P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    20   39  +16       7.94    88.86    10.56    80.12     7.59    24.04    18.39    36.13    81.81    46.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   20   35   +9       2.16    63.12     1.21    78.74     7.37    20.70    12.83    27.99    77.23    43.07P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       19   34  +14       0.00    49.45     1.47    82.55     8.01    32.11    31.82    50.88    88.01    62.62P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   34  +11       5.93    82.06    10.06    70.31     7.62    11.78     1.85     5.27    35.00    10.96P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       20   34   +8       4.22    73.91     4.53    72.87     7.62    12.68     3.70     9.54    47.66    17.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           20   34   +6       1.93    61.29    -0.88    75.37     7.58    14.62     6.23    15.58    60.62    27.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   31   +9      -2.54    34.73    -0.43    72.89     7.71    18.41     4.18    10.73    49.47    21.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      20   30   +6       5.49    81.09    10.44    61.80     7.42     0.28     0.10     0.44     6.47     1.37P    1.30R    0.05  
Blackburn       20   29   -4       2.75    66.50    -1.99    62.23     7.77    -7.93     0.16     0.61     7.83     1.91P    1.53R    0.09  
QPR             20   28   -5       3.56    71.30    -0.14    58.59     7.36   -13.21     0.02     0.14     2.73     0.59P    3.84R    0.27  
Stoke           20   27   +0      -3.13    32.15    -3.94    66.69     7.80     6.08     0.61     2.24    20.05     7.04P    0.38R    0.03  
Swansea         20   26   +1      -4.44    25.03    -3.57    65.69     7.72     6.96     0.44     1.53    16.73     5.73P    0.48R    0.01  
Bristol_City    20   26   +0      -1.72    40.08    -0.30    61.46     7.54    -0.43     0.10     0.39     6.55     1.71P    1.56R    0.12  
Wigan           20   25   -5      -2.45    36.16    -5.08    61.08     7.72    -4.29     0.09     0.36     6.02     1.78P    2.25R    0.17  
Sheff_Wed       20   23  -11      -1.89    39.05    -6.83    56.18     7.52   -15.15     0.01     0.04     1.42     0.31P    7.94R    0.88  
Preston         20   22   -4      -5.16    21.75    -3.36    57.87     7.63    -3.93     0.01     0.09     2.61     0.64P    4.85R    0.46  
Brentford       19   21   +2      -7.07    13.60    -0.88    60.28     7.96     5.17     0.09     0.41     5.96     1.80P    2.82R    0.28  
Hull            20   20   -9      -5.47    20.46    -5.86    53.00     7.43   -13.59     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.10P   14.89R    2.09  
Rotherham       20   20  -11      -0.26    49.55     0.53    46.15     7.23   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   47.98R   12.11  
Reading         20   18   -6      -5.48    19.50     0.76    48.31     7.45   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   33.66R    7.10  
Millwall        20   18   -9      -6.67    14.89    -4.64    50.41     7.40   -13.98     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   24.00R    4.15  
Bolton          20   18  -13      -1.14    44.04    -0.90    42.09     6.74   -29.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.93R   26.46  
Ipswich         20   11  -18     -10.81     3.44    -9.42    39.03     7.23   -30.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.51R   45.73  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           19   44  +17      13.04    98.25     9.83    85.55     7.81    23.57    18.59    41.48    93.09    53.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.74    71.52     5.13    91.29     7.84    43.12    50.76    73.41    98.48    81.90P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                20   38  +18       4.66    75.34     9.08    81.47     7.97    29.75     9.07    24.36    84.77    40.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         20   38  +12       6.17    82.18     5.54    79.88     7.78    21.33     5.59    17.23    79.64    31.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnsley             19   35  +15       1.20    56.93     3.29    83.08     8.01    31.61    13.01    32.15    88.81    50.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton             19   34   +9       4.20    74.60     3.60    76.33     7.83    16.84     2.43     8.42    64.09    21.63P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster            20   32   +4       4.24    74.30     3.62    68.63     7.67     5.26     0.17     1.05    24.39     5.40P    0.52R    0.02  
Blackpool            19   31   +5       3.28    69.98     2.50    67.97     7.69     4.99     0.25     1.04    21.68     5.29P    0.47R    0.01  
Coventry             20   29   -2       4.75    77.03     2.23    60.20     7.52    -8.17     0.02     0.06     3.88     0.74P    5.91R    0.29  
Wycombe              20   28   +1       3.50    70.51     5.75    59.96     7.78    -5.19     0.01     0.07     4.28     0.76P    6.88R    0.38  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.39    70.43     2.01    59.51     7.64    -8.15     0.00     0.04     3.54     0.67P    7.33R    0.35  
Fleetwood_Town       20   27   +7      -2.15    37.45     4.57    64.73     7.68    10.04     0.07     0.39    12.78     3.25P    1.55R    0.03  
Walsall              20   27   -7       2.85    67.87    -2.09    58.87     7.45   -12.65     0.00     0.04     2.69     0.43P    8.56R    0.42  
Southend             20   26   -1      -1.31    42.44    -0.59    61.66     7.60    -1.14     0.01     0.10     6.01     1.25P    3.99R    0.19  
Shrewsbury           20   24   -2      -3.98    27.39    -2.90    60.32     7.57    -0.91     0.01     0.06     4.29     1.01P    5.38R    0.26  
Burton_Albion        19   24   -3      -1.86    39.53    -2.74    58.73     7.97    -6.63     0.01     0.07     3.42     0.74P    9.53R    0.63  
Rochdale             20   23  -11      -0.88    45.66    -5.11    55.46     7.56   -16.53     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.18P   18.39R    1.74  
Gillingham           20   21   -5      -4.02    27.34    -0.95    53.64     7.58   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.12P   23.76R    2.46  
Oxford_Utd           20   21   -6      -4.93    22.88    -3.31    54.03     7.67   -10.29     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.17P   22.67R    2.18  
Scunthorpe           20   21  -13      -5.69    19.71   -11.31    56.52     7.77   -13.92     0.00     0.02     1.50     0.33P   15.27R    1.46  
Bristol_Rovers       20   17   -4      -8.65     8.69    -1.38    49.06     7.46    -9.27     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   45.08R    7.39  
Plymouth             20   16  -16      -6.14    16.46    -7.59    46.01     7.47   -24.95     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   63.73R   17.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   14  -16      -6.97    12.44    -6.82    41.53     7.11   -27.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.48R   36.30  
Bradford             20   14  -21      -7.74    10.16   -12.37    43.18     7.28   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.48R   28.86  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Bury 4 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          20   40  +17       3.67    71.03     3.85    86.79     7.61    33.14    46.09    81.81    97.84    87.13P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   38  +17       6.84    86.16     9.35    82.84     7.77    28.68    24.09    65.35    93.87    72.95P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       20   35  +14       2.78    66.31     6.92    76.86     7.51    23.30     7.10    34.26    80.12    46.45P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   20   35   -1       8.48    90.39     0.61    67.72     7.55    -5.56     0.64     5.31    32.22     9.37P    0.06R    0.01  
Bury             20   33  +17      -2.53    34.81     4.56    78.12     7.82    31.46    10.60    42.90    83.64    56.25P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       1.04    56.48     5.89    77.12     7.68    24.98     7.81    35.93    80.58    49.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter           20   31   +8      -1.03    43.73     1.07    71.30     7.62    14.92     1.78    12.95    53.71    23.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   31   +5       4.08    72.93     5.68    66.00     7.77     3.89     0.41     3.91    26.74     8.12P    0.16R    0.02  
Stevenage        20   31   +1       3.05    68.36     0.27    66.19     7.53     0.33     0.35     3.68    26.37     8.14P    0.12R    0.01  
Forest_Green     20   30   +8       3.57    71.34     9.58    64.12     7.53     5.83     0.18     2.17    19.54     5.35P    0.23R    0.02  
Carlisle         20   27   +0      -2.09    37.82    -2.37    63.53     7.57     1.44     0.13     1.97    16.89     5.26P    0.39R    0.02  
Swindon          20   27   -5      -0.63    46.76    -5.36    64.30     7.52    -2.64     0.16     2.03    18.86     5.70P    0.30R    0.02  
Oldham           20   26   +5      -6.35    17.02    -2.37    67.09     7.72    13.08     0.54     5.27    33.44    13.63P    0.11R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.26    64.40     0.69    59.91     7.73    -8.12     0.04     0.65     8.27     1.88P    1.49R    0.22  
Crewe            20   25   -3      -0.60    46.91    -0.26    57.65     7.46    -7.45     0.00     0.25     4.57     1.04P    2.37R    0.32  
Port_Vale        20   25   -3      -0.23    49.46    -0.23    59.97     7.41    -3.77     0.02     0.50     7.56     1.80P    1.24R    0.14  
Northampton      20   23   -3      -5.30    21.32    -4.30    60.19     7.83    -0.76     0.03     0.70     9.44     2.79P    1.43R    0.17  
Grimsby          20   22   -8      -0.35    48.83    -0.81    51.74     7.28   -16.28     0.00     0.02     0.64     0.12P   11.60R    2.07  
Yeovil           18   21   +1      -1.67    39.97     4.00    56.74     7.86    -2.97     0.02     0.30     4.45     1.09P    3.77R    0.69  
Morecambe        20   21  -13      -0.63    47.05    -4.57    49.15     7.11   -23.85     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.05P   20.11R    3.98  
Cambridge_Utd    20   19  -15      -4.56    23.78    -9.35    50.62     7.40   -20.92     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.09P   15.40R    3.19  
Cheltenham       19   17  -12      -4.74    22.43    -5.18    49.13     7.64   -19.52     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.07P   20.92R    4.81  
Notts_County     20   16  -19      -8.22     9.86   -13.64    47.23     7.50   -26.13     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.03P   29.87R    7.74  
Macclesfield     20   13  -21      -3.59    28.09    -4.03    34.56     6.72   -43.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.38R   76.56  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 December 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 2 Sutton_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      23   50  +31       7.90    87.62    15.37    91.98     6.79    46.58    55.75    98.29    69.96P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       23   49  +28       9.31    90.20    15.53    87.36     7.23    38.31    25.31    91.99    43.44P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     22   43  +18       8.97    89.27    12.02    80.64     7.54    25.28     6.27    68.46    19.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            22   43  +14       8.85    90.70     8.03    79.76     6.97    19.90     4.07    63.71    17.98P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          23   42  +21       2.47    63.31     8.93    81.60     6.91    33.12     6.76    76.00    27.31P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     21   40  +11      10.62    94.49     9.95    74.17     7.25    11.35     0.88    31.72     6.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          22   36   +7       3.78    70.97     3.68    72.64     7.14    12.65     0.44    25.27     5.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      22   36   +4       4.39    74.02     1.78    71.41     7.13     7.93     0.30    19.30     4.21P    0.03R    0.00  
Eastleigh          23   36   +1       5.47    78.32     2.28    66.82     6.86     0.13     0.04     6.28     1.05P    0.25R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   23   31   +4      -1.68    40.77     2.03    64.70     6.91     7.39     0.01     4.05     0.85P    0.50R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       22   28   -2      -2.67    34.88    -3.23    60.99     6.97    -1.25     0.00     1.31     0.30P    2.00R    0.02  
Barrow             23   28   -3      -1.76    40.52    -0.65    56.30     6.81    -7.43     0.00     0.23     0.04P    8.12R    0.10  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.44    30.07    -9.13    68.37     7.77     4.03     0.17    11.96     3.46P    0.34R    0.00  
Hartlepool         23   28   -7      -1.46    42.32    -4.22    57.02     6.79   -10.36     0.00     0.29     0.06P    6.95R    0.10  
Dag_&_Red          23   27   -4      -5.74    20.84    -6.08    58.98     6.89    -3.35     0.00     0.52     0.15P    3.95R    0.08  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.78    55.76     0.89    53.50     6.97   -12.70     0.00     0.08     0.01P   17.10R    0.58  
Aldershot          23   25  -16      -3.61    30.37   -12.15    54.06     6.81   -19.11     0.00     0.05     0.01P   16.12R    0.48  
Bromley            22   24   -6      -5.52    21.41    -4.91    55.98     7.22    -7.68     0.00     0.30     0.06P   10.26R    0.20  
Havant_&_Wville    23   21  -10      -3.43    32.44     2.13    46.26     7.05   -20.25     0.00     0.01     0.00    54.36R    5.41  
Maidenhead         22   21  -21      -1.79    40.40    -9.19    46.25     6.81   -33.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.83R    5.74  
Chesterfield       22   20   -6     -12.42     3.28    -9.63    55.21     7.26    -2.36     0.00     0.18     0.03P   11.77R    0.34  
Maidstone_United   22   19  -15      -4.04    27.11    -4.63    44.50     6.73   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.66R    8.18  
Dover_Athletic     23   18  -19     -10.77     5.41   -14.95    47.56     6.90   -21.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.26R    3.93  
Braintree_Town     23   14  -22      -6.05    17.70    -3.84    33.36     6.40   -40.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.45R   74.86