Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 1 December 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 November 2018, Burnley 1 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         13   35  +35       3.55    82.08     8.28    95.75     5.82    84.68    85.31    96.68    99.23    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        13   33  +21       6.68    93.43     6.51    85.00     6.77    49.45     9.80    57.38    81.83    93.93    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        13   30  +12       4.58    83.44    -0.18    80.64     6.84    37.94     3.13    26.13    58.98    82.17    99.41     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          13   28  +17       2.36    67.89     4.70    77.07     6.86    40.94     1.35    13.07    36.78    68.30    98.63     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          13   27  +12       2.92    71.96     1.79    73.42     7.11    31.76     0.39     5.99    19.51    43.15    95.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton          13   22   +5       2.18    66.95     2.31    55.15     7.22     1.82     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.59    13.65     0.08R    0.00  
Man_Utd          13   21   -1      -1.52    37.45    -7.69    66.45     7.11    16.11     0.01     0.73     3.50    11.73    78.95     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      13   20   +4       2.46    68.62     4.90    50.30     7.02    -5.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     4.23     0.46R    0.02  
Watford          13   20   +0       4.38    81.63     3.81    47.81     6.96   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.17     1.27R    0.08  
Leicester        13   18   +1      -0.48    46.65     0.50    50.70     7.14    -3.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13     5.01     0.51R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    13   16   -3       1.43    62.78     2.43    44.22     7.13   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.75     4.30R    0.52  
Brighton         13   15   -5       1.05    59.92     1.51    42.81     6.88   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.43     5.75R    0.62  
Newcastle        13   12   -5      -3.24    25.43    -0.74    43.29     6.97    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.45     4.83R    0.66  
West_Ham         13   12   -8      -1.37    40.00     0.43    43.30     7.19   -14.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56     6.13R    0.79  
Huddersfield     13   10  -14      -0.45    48.15    -1.50    29.96     6.21   -37.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.62R   25.22  
Crystal_Palace   13    9   -9      -5.21    13.41    -3.35    38.05     6.92   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    18.40R    3.41  
Burnley          13    9  -14      -5.71    11.10    -8.64    34.65     6.71   -28.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    34.88R    8.39  
Southampton      13    8  -14      -5.98     9.60    -7.17    34.91     6.83   -26.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    33.68R    8.24  
Cardiff          13    8  -15      -3.25    23.86    -2.82    31.34     6.86   -33.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.59R   20.04  
Fulham           13    8  -19      -3.61    22.18    -5.08    29.39     6.80   -44.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.50R   31.98  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 November 2018, Aston_Villa 5 5 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         19   37  +11       9.01    91.85     8.14    79.41     7.86    19.06    15.89    32.44    78.82    42.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    19   36  +15       6.61    85.23     9.95    77.89     7.82    22.17    12.37    26.54    73.96    37.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   19   35  +12       3.09    69.34     3.59    81.47     7.60    25.57    23.38    43.56    86.74    57.17P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       19   34  +14       0.11    50.07     1.69    82.56     8.00    32.01    31.23    51.54    88.51    63.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       19   34   +9       5.38    79.91     5.21    74.87     7.85    14.66     6.63    15.58    59.35    25.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   19   31   +9       4.93    78.55     9.04    68.85     7.82    10.01     1.37     4.22    29.90     9.05P    0.14R    0.00  
Derby           19   31   +5       0.78    54.73    -1.18    73.60     7.77    13.39     4.46    11.60    52.82    22.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     19   28   +6      -3.55    28.85    -2.33    69.66     7.91    12.95     2.04     5.69    34.42    13.63P    0.13R    0.00  
QPR             19   28   -4       4.78    77.97     0.51    60.56     7.56   -11.12     0.07     0.29     5.09     1.05P    2.46R    0.19  
Birmingham      19   27   +3       4.68    78.26     8.64    59.15     7.56    -4.14     0.06     0.19     4.06     0.76P    3.17R    0.23  
Swansea         19   26   +2      -3.48    29.52    -3.12    67.04     7.94     7.98     0.87     2.76    22.82     8.34P    0.33R    0.02  
Stoke           19   26   +0      -2.69    34.11    -3.88    67.49     8.03     6.73     0.98     3.07    24.47     8.78P    0.41R    0.03  
Blackburn       19   26   -6       1.90    62.36    -2.90    60.08     7.89   -10.56     0.08     0.32     5.31     1.28P    3.31R    0.31  
Bristol_City    19   25   +0      -1.11    43.47     0.05    62.51     7.77     0.58     0.18     0.71     9.34     2.50P    1.45R    0.13  
Wigan           19   24   -5      -1.98    38.60    -4.92    61.95     8.00    -3.57     0.19     0.62     8.34     2.33P    2.01R    0.16  
Sheff_Wed       19   23   -9      -1.17    43.36    -5.93    57.74     7.76   -12.71     0.04     0.12     2.74     0.62P    6.00R    0.74  
Preston         19   22   -1      -4.61    23.56    -1.72    60.43     7.89     0.89     0.08     0.35     6.24     1.72P    2.77R    0.23  
Brentford       19   21   +2      -7.06    13.38    -0.88    60.26     7.88     5.12     0.09     0.38     6.24     1.84P    2.83R    0.29  
Rotherham       19   20   -9       0.32    53.59     1.09    46.97     7.55   -25.03     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   43.80R   11.61  
Reading         19   17   -6      -5.17    20.28     0.62    48.28     7.62   -15.07     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.03P   34.71R    8.17  
Millwall        19   17   -9      -6.52    14.58    -5.02    50.12     7.58   -14.96     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.06P   26.11R    5.31  
Hull            19   17  -10      -6.92    13.46    -6.67    50.69     7.61   -15.51     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.07P   24.08R    4.71  
Bolton          19   17  -13      -1.02    44.61    -1.27    42.23     7.01   -30.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    69.69R   28.49  
Ipswich         19   11  -16     -10.25     3.73    -8.70    40.25     7.38   -28.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.56R   39.39  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           19   44  +17      13.18    98.28    10.03    85.48     7.80    23.45    18.12    41.12    92.93    52.56P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.63    70.95     4.95    91.44     7.82    43.33    51.55    73.53    98.61    82.22P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                20   38  +18       4.63    75.23     9.07    81.52     7.90    29.78     8.90    24.43    84.79    40.77P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         20   38  +12       6.14    82.02     5.51    79.91     7.74    21.38     5.57    17.22    79.47    31.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnsley             19   35  +15       1.12    56.17     3.17    83.18     8.03    31.82    12.96    32.54    88.90    51.00P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             19   34   +9       4.30    74.83     3.72    76.29     7.88    16.74     2.36     8.39    63.79    21.47P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster            20   32   +4       4.20    73.90     3.53    68.79     7.63     5.55     0.23     1.06    24.85     5.53P    0.43R    0.00  
Blackpool            19   31   +5       3.30    70.14     2.53    67.85     7.73     4.84     0.20     0.91    21.61     5.26P    0.58R    0.01  
Coventry             20   29   -2       4.79    77.14     2.28    60.14     7.46    -8.30     0.00     0.05     3.73     0.65P    5.81R    0.22  
Wycombe              20   28   +1       3.49    70.57     5.77    59.92     7.74    -5.25     0.02     0.06     4.11     0.74P    6.78R    0.33  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.47    71.00     2.13    59.40     7.62    -8.32     0.01     0.06     3.30     0.59P    7.40R    0.42  
Fleetwood_Town       20   27   +7      -2.25    36.86     4.43    64.88     7.71    10.25     0.04     0.34    13.23     3.30P    1.55R    0.06  
Walsall              20   27   -7       2.85    67.79    -2.02    58.89     7.49   -12.70     0.00     0.03     2.63     0.40P    8.35R    0.51  
Southend             20   26   -1      -1.30    42.70    -0.59    61.66     7.69    -1.05     0.02     0.12     6.06     1.35P    4.24R    0.18  
Shrewsbury           20   24   -2      -3.94    27.57    -2.85    60.29     7.55    -0.98     0.00     0.04     4.19     0.99P    5.32R    0.24  
Burton_Albion        19   24   -3      -1.86    39.46    -2.70    58.66     7.99    -6.75     0.01     0.08     3.40     0.77P    9.64R    0.64  
Rochdale             20   23  -11      -0.92    45.28    -5.15    55.46     7.60   -16.57     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.17P   18.50R    1.78  
Gillingham           20   21   -5      -4.10    26.89    -1.08    53.74     7.64   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.14P   23.39R    2.43  
Oxford_Utd           20   21   -6      -4.94    22.68    -3.37    54.03     7.67   -10.28     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.14P   22.44R    2.15  
Scunthorpe           20   21  -13      -5.74    19.52   -11.45    56.60     7.79   -13.82     0.00     0.02     1.62     0.32P   15.25R    1.41  
Bristol_Rovers       20   17   -4      -8.59     8.67    -1.27    48.87     7.46    -9.56     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   45.92R    7.85  
Plymouth             20   16  -16      -6.03    17.03    -7.40    45.92     7.41   -25.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   64.11R   16.96  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   14  -16      -6.95    12.54    -6.77    41.52     7.12   -27.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   83.36R   36.06  
Bradford             20   14  -21      -7.78    10.11   -12.46    43.25     7.30   -30.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   76.89R   28.74  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Bury 4 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          20   40  +17       3.50    70.51     3.60    86.93     7.52    33.39    46.33    82.22    98.04    87.39P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   38  +17       6.78    86.06     9.24    82.92     7.76    28.77    23.84    65.42    93.84    72.91P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       20   35  +14       2.63    65.42     6.70    76.98     7.56    23.48     7.55    34.67    80.37    46.70P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   20   35   -1       8.45    90.45     0.57    67.75     7.53    -5.51     0.61     5.25    32.15     9.32P    0.06R    0.00  
Bury             20   33  +17      -2.48    35.02     4.59    78.08     7.82    31.44    10.53    42.65    83.50    55.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       1.07    56.36     5.91    77.17     7.65    25.05     7.68    35.74    80.78    48.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter           20   31   +8      -0.98    43.66     1.11    71.37     7.59    14.94     1.68    12.71    54.07    23.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   31   +5       4.26    74.27     5.95    65.90     7.75     3.70     0.30     3.83    26.20     8.07P    0.17R    0.01  
Stevenage        20   31   +1       3.07    68.39     0.33    66.13     7.59     0.27     0.34     3.57    26.21     8.22P    0.12R    0.00  
Forest_Green     20   30   +8       3.57    71.16     9.61    64.06     7.53     5.68     0.17     2.15    19.05     5.17P    0.21R    0.02  
Carlisle         20   27   +0      -2.09    37.89    -2.37    63.42     7.62     1.29     0.16     1.83    16.93     5.30P    0.38R    0.04  
Swindon          20   27   -5      -0.64    46.70    -5.37    64.30     7.67    -2.63     0.14     2.15    19.24     5.84P    0.37R    0.04  
Oldham           20   26   +5      -6.37    16.93    -2.40    67.08     7.74    13.03     0.51     5.26    32.87    13.56P    0.13R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.22    64.24     0.63    59.86     7.73    -8.16     0.05     0.68     8.12     1.96P    1.57R    0.20  
Crewe            20   25   -3      -0.72    46.35    -0.43    57.87     7.47    -7.17     0.02     0.29     4.96     1.14P    2.22R    0.28  
Port_Vale        20   25   -3      -0.12    50.13    -0.03    59.83     7.44    -3.99     0.03     0.43     7.26     1.88P    1.26R    0.16  
Northampton      20   23   -3      -5.32    21.52    -4.30    60.25     7.91    -0.69     0.04     0.76     9.73     2.85P    1.37R    0.18  
Grimsby          20   22   -8      -0.31    49.07    -0.76    51.69     7.25   -16.34     0.00     0.02     0.74     0.14P   11.39R    2.10  
Yeovil           18   21   +1      -1.85    39.07     3.75    56.98     7.91    -2.61     0.02     0.34     4.70     1.14P    3.48R    0.51  
Morecambe        20   21  -13      -0.52    48.17    -4.38    49.04     7.14   -24.02     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.05P   20.71R    4.24  
Cambridge_Utd    20   19  -15      -4.48    24.08    -9.22    50.47     7.36   -21.19     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.08P   15.79R    3.39  
Cheltenham       19   17  -12      -4.77    22.37    -5.19    49.06     7.63   -19.63     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.06P   21.24R    4.89  
Notts_County     20   16  -19      -8.08    10.16   -13.40    47.23     7.46   -26.11     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   29.62R    7.66  
Macclesfield     20   13  -21      -3.65    27.66    -4.13    34.62     6.78   -42.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.90R   76.28  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Barrow 0 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      22   47  +29       7.13    85.87    14.59    90.47     6.99    44.78    51.69    96.92    66.40P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       22   46  +25       9.22    90.13    14.98    85.64     7.46    35.28    22.43    87.61    38.99P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            22   43  +14       8.81    90.43     7.99    79.87     6.92    20.04     5.04    64.65    19.33P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          22   41  +21       3.00    66.93     9.15    82.60     7.10    34.00    11.30    79.17    31.79P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     21   40  +17       7.84    86.51    11.85    79.28     7.85    24.72     6.31    61.59    18.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     21   40  +11      10.81    94.86    10.20    73.96     7.20    11.07     1.05    30.97     6.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          21   36   +9       4.03    72.97     4.12    74.43     7.29    15.20     1.35    34.40     9.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      21   35   +4       4.59    75.22     1.48    71.17     7.38     7.08     0.48    19.39     4.39P    0.09R    0.00  
Eastleigh          22   35   +1       6.05    81.27     2.54    67.31     7.08     0.40     0.10     7.92     1.33P    0.28R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   22   28   +2      -2.67    35.04     0.91    62.43     7.10     4.52     0.00     2.31     0.48P    1.51R    0.02  
Boreham_Wood       22   28   -2      -2.82    33.96    -3.44    61.19     6.97    -0.97     0.01     1.33     0.32P    2.27R    0.03  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.48    29.73    -9.21    68.28     7.69     3.91     0.22    11.87     3.37P    0.34R    0.00  
Hartlepool         22   28   -6      -0.34    48.74    -3.62    58.65     7.01    -8.90     0.00     0.61     0.10P    5.33R    0.11  
Barrow             22   25   -5      -2.70    34.84    -1.66    54.52     6.97    -9.64     0.00     0.13     0.02P   14.29R    0.59  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.62    54.99     0.73    53.63     6.95   -12.48     0.00     0.12     0.02P   17.84R    0.75  
Aldershot          22   25  -14      -2.80    34.28   -10.94    55.88     7.03   -16.46     0.00     0.18     0.04P   11.73R    0.38  
Dag_&_Red          22   24   -5      -7.04    14.92    -6.58    56.93     7.08    -4.86     0.00     0.34     0.05P    8.26R    0.24  
Bromley            22   24   -6      -5.48    21.58    -4.84    55.89     7.27    -7.85     0.00     0.29     0.05P   11.32R    0.41  
Havant_&_Wville    22   21   -7      -3.35    32.54     2.80    47.64     7.31   -17.43     0.00     0.01     0.00P   48.21R    5.45  
Maidenhead         21   21  -20      -0.84    46.07    -8.95    47.32     7.02   -33.15     0.00     0.01     0.00    53.16R    6.36  
Chesterfield       22   20   -6     -12.27     3.60    -9.45    55.14     7.24    -2.49     0.00     0.18     0.04P   12.59R    0.48  
Maidstone_United   22   19  -15      -4.02    27.40    -4.60    44.39     6.79   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.79R   11.04  
Dover_Athletic     22   17  -19     -10.49     5.45   -15.12    47.60     7.05   -22.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.07R    5.49  
Braintree_Town     22   14  -20      -5.44    19.89    -2.93    34.95     6.68   -38.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.90R   68.64