Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 30 November 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 November 2018, Burnley 1 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         13   35  +35       3.58    82.31     8.40    95.69     5.79    84.52    85.00    96.77    99.30    99.89   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        13   33  +21       6.57    93.22     6.36    85.06     6.76    49.64    10.23    58.15    82.20    93.94    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        13   30  +12       4.69    83.93    -0.03    80.50     6.87    37.70     3.06    25.71    58.39    81.81    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          13   28  +17       2.39    68.25     4.76    77.02     6.88    40.80     1.39    13.14    37.10    68.46    98.50     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          13   27  +12       2.97    72.39     1.84    73.36     7.04    31.59     0.30     5.48    19.23    42.97    95.58     0.00     0.00  
Everton          13   22   +5       2.17    66.83     2.29    55.09     7.24     1.76     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.55    13.25     0.06R    0.00  
Man_Utd          13   21   -1      -1.53    37.36    -7.71    66.53     7.07    16.23     0.02     0.74     3.66    12.09    79.25     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      13   20   +4       2.37    68.15     4.75    50.36     7.04    -4.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     4.22     0.51R    0.02  
Watford          13   20   +0       4.36    81.55     3.78    47.79     6.91   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.99     1.18R    0.07  
Leicester        13   18   +1      -0.62    45.42     0.27    50.99     7.19    -3.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15     5.36     0.39R    0.03  
Wolverhampton    13   16   -3       1.39    62.27     2.38    44.35     7.11   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.79     4.02R    0.47  
Brighton         13   15   -5       1.02    59.92     1.49    42.76     6.84   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40     5.69R    0.58  
Newcastle        13   12   -5      -3.20    25.97    -0.70    43.22     6.96   -10.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     4.91R    0.67  
West_Ham         13   12   -8      -1.36    39.80     0.44    43.35     7.24   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64     6.12R    0.79  
Huddersfield     13   10  -14      -0.44    48.17    -1.49    30.01     6.16   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.13R   24.71  
Crystal_Palace   13    9   -9      -5.21    13.44    -3.34    37.99     6.92   -18.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    18.49R    3.31  
Burnley          13    9  -14      -5.71    11.13    -8.66    34.69     6.72   -28.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.73R    8.05  
Southampton      13    8  -14      -5.97     9.68    -7.19    34.94     6.81   -26.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    33.18R    8.23  
Cardiff          13    8  -15      -3.13    24.76    -2.53    31.13     6.83   -33.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.82R   21.14  
Fulham           13    8  -19      -3.65    21.63    -5.12    29.36     6.74   -44.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.77R   31.93  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 November 2018, Aston_Villa 5 5 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         19   37  +11       9.05    92.23     8.19    79.40     7.81    19.06    15.82    32.05    78.93    41.80P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    19   36  +15       6.51    84.96     9.83    77.98     7.81    22.35    12.68    26.93    74.24    38.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   19   35  +12       3.07    68.95     3.56    81.49     7.57    25.58    23.53    43.69    86.77    57.42P    0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       19   34  +14       0.16    50.18     1.76    82.30     8.04    31.62    30.36    50.33    87.79    61.98P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       19   34   +9       5.33    79.62     5.12    74.94     7.90    14.78     6.78    16.12    59.42    25.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   19   31   +9       4.86    78.02     8.96    68.95     7.86    10.17     1.49     4.33    30.78     9.47P    0.12R    0.01  
Derby           19   31   +5       0.60    53.66    -1.44    73.79     7.83    13.69     4.85    12.43    53.73    23.35P    0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     19   28   +6      -3.63    28.35    -2.44    69.72     7.88    13.09     2.05     5.81    34.86    13.64P    0.10R    0.01  
QPR             19   28   -4       4.79    77.98     0.55    60.51     7.51   -11.20     0.08     0.31     4.97     1.09P    2.53R    0.17  
Birmingham      19   27   +3       4.75    78.66     8.76    59.03     7.58    -4.34     0.05     0.19     3.84     0.78P    3.60R    0.30  
Swansea         19   26   +2      -3.41    29.84    -3.06    66.97     7.98     7.86     0.84     2.61    22.90     8.32P    0.39R    0.02  
Stoke           19   26   +0      -2.56    34.84    -3.66    67.26     8.03     6.40     0.91     2.86    23.53     8.42P    0.41R    0.03  
Blackburn       19   26   -6       1.90    62.45    -2.90    60.08     7.84   -10.58     0.09     0.34     5.17     1.20P    3.25R    0.26  
Bristol_City    19   25   +0      -1.01    44.28     0.20    62.35     7.75     0.29     0.15     0.65     9.11     2.45P    1.55R    0.11  
Wigan           19   24   -5      -1.84    39.27    -4.78    61.80     7.93    -3.78     0.11     0.52     7.98     2.23P    2.11R    0.22  
Sheff_Wed       19   23   -9      -1.13    43.54    -5.95    57.78     7.68   -12.68     0.02     0.10     2.63     0.63P    5.80R    0.65  
Preston         19   22   -1      -4.61    23.39    -1.65    60.35     7.86     0.79     0.09     0.34     6.02     1.58P    2.80R    0.25  
Brentford       19   21   +2      -7.15    13.02    -1.03    60.43     7.89     5.42     0.10     0.39     6.48     1.93P    2.79R    0.24  
Rotherham       19   20   -9       0.20    52.70     0.88    47.15     7.51   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   43.19R   11.32  
Reading         19   17   -6      -5.14    20.36     0.60    48.38     7.59   -14.99     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   34.28R    7.90  
Millwall        19   17   -9      -6.60    14.22    -5.09    50.27     7.63   -14.80     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P   25.61R    5.15  
Hull            19   17  -10      -6.82    13.77    -6.50    50.62     7.65   -15.68     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.07P   24.70R    4.92  
Bolton          19   17  -13      -0.94    45.09    -1.11    42.11     6.98   -30.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   70.65R   29.48  
Ipswich         19   11  -16     -10.33     3.87    -8.80    40.39     7.41   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   76.06R   38.99  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           19   44  +17      13.15    98.25     9.99    85.55     7.86    23.57    18.54    40.98    93.04    52.45P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           19   40  +21       3.62    70.64     4.87    91.44     7.87    43.34    51.64    73.95    98.51    82.28P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                20   38  +18       4.69    75.37     9.12    81.51     7.88    29.79     8.49    24.33    85.02    40.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         20   38  +12       6.24    82.60     5.64    79.88     7.79    21.32     5.64    17.09    79.20    31.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             19   35  +15       1.10    56.14     3.12    83.14     8.03    31.75    12.70    32.14    88.77    50.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton             19   34   +9       4.21    74.49     3.58    76.33     7.87    16.80     2.47     8.60    63.63    21.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            20   32   +4       4.14    73.75     3.47    68.81     7.69     5.54     0.22     1.16    24.97     5.63P    0.43R    0.01  
Blackpool            19   31   +5       3.17    69.32     2.38    67.94     7.76     5.00     0.20     0.97    22.14     5.37P    0.56R    0.01  
Coventry             20   29   -2       4.91    77.70     2.41    60.04     7.53    -8.39     0.01     0.07     3.76     0.67P    6.28R    0.27  
Wycombe              20   28   +1       3.42    70.22     5.64    59.94     7.75    -5.17     0.01     0.08     4.14     0.76P    6.61R    0.38  
Accrington_Stanley   20   28   -2       3.58    71.19     2.29    59.29     7.59    -8.54     0.00     0.04     3.22     0.61P    7.57R    0.42  
Fleetwood_Town       20   27   +7      -2.22    36.91     4.48    64.79     7.72    10.12     0.05     0.35    13.40     3.34P    1.61R    0.04  
Walsall              20   27   -7       2.88    67.98    -2.05    58.90     7.46   -12.62     0.00     0.02     2.61     0.41P    8.39R    0.44  
Southend             20   26   -1      -1.20    43.28    -0.39    61.53     7.63    -1.30     0.01     0.08     5.71     1.17P    4.22R    0.18  
Shrewsbury           20   24   -2      -3.98    27.40    -2.92    60.30     7.55    -0.91     0.01     0.05     4.16     0.93P    5.45R    0.23  
Burton_Albion        19   24   -3      -1.98    38.63    -2.82    58.80     7.92    -6.55     0.01     0.06     3.47     0.77P    9.14R    0.60  
Rochdale             20   23  -11      -0.83    45.91    -5.02    55.41     7.61   -16.63     0.00     0.01     0.98     0.15P   18.75R    1.75  
Gillingham           20   21   -5      -4.16    26.63    -1.19    53.74     7.60   -10.06     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.13P   23.28R    2.43  
Oxford_Utd           20   21   -6      -5.07    22.30    -3.50    54.20     7.65   -10.07     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.19P   21.88R    2.04  
Scunthorpe           20   21  -13      -5.75    19.32   -11.40    56.55     7.75   -13.81     0.00     0.01     1.52     0.34P   15.29R    1.36  
Bristol_Rovers       20   17   -4      -8.66     8.46    -1.39    49.06     7.49    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.05P   45.08R    7.36  
Plymouth             20   16  -16      -6.03    17.02    -7.40    45.88     7.46   -25.17     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   64.49R   17.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   14  -16      -6.94    12.51    -6.76    41.54     7.12   -27.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.18R   36.15  
Bradford             20   14  -21      -7.57    10.96   -12.14    43.06     7.34   -31.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.74R   29.31  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Bury 4 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          20   40  +17       3.60    70.86     3.72    86.83     7.57    33.22    45.65    81.81    98.03    86.98P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     19   38  +17       6.74    85.70     9.18    82.97     7.77    28.82    24.41    65.92    94.00    73.52P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       20   35  +14       2.72    65.78     6.79    77.02     7.53    23.53     7.60    34.66    80.35    47.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   20   35   -1       8.51    90.53     0.62    67.66     7.58    -5.64     0.61     5.27    32.12     9.39P    0.06R    0.01  
Bury             20   33  +17      -2.52    34.58     4.60    78.12     7.83    31.46    10.68    42.81    83.54    55.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       1.18    57.31     6.09    77.04     7.71    24.86     7.61    35.73    80.31    48.89P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           20   31   +8      -0.95    44.23     1.15    71.22     7.58    14.76     1.62    12.67    53.23    23.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   31   +5       3.96    72.57     5.52    66.22     7.74     4.25     0.42     3.98    27.69     8.50P    0.19R    0.01  
Stevenage        20   31   +1       3.10    68.29     0.39    66.08     7.57     0.19     0.34     3.36    26.09     7.77P    0.13R    0.01  
Forest_Green     20   30   +8       3.61    71.53     9.61    64.00     7.51     5.63     0.16     2.13    18.98     5.08P    0.22R    0.02  
Carlisle         20   27   +0      -2.04    37.92    -2.33    63.35     7.56     1.24     0.11     1.73    16.67     5.01P    0.35R    0.02  
Swindon          20   27   -5      -0.67    46.31    -5.39    64.26     7.64    -2.68     0.15     2.15    19.10     5.72P    0.34R    0.03  
Oldham           20   26   +5      -6.27    17.32    -2.21    66.93     7.70    12.81     0.49     5.14    32.41    13.44P    0.11R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.20    64.22     0.60    59.99     7.75    -7.99     0.05     0.67     8.54     1.96P    1.54R    0.23  
Crewe            20   25   -3      -0.68    46.31    -0.36    57.72     7.53    -7.31     0.02     0.30     4.78     1.15P    2.38R    0.25  
Port_Vale        20   25   -3      -0.16    49.78    -0.12    59.96     7.45    -3.77     0.03     0.51     7.68     1.91P    1.25R    0.17  
Northampton      20   23   -3      -5.38    21.14    -4.39    60.30     7.84    -0.62     0.04     0.77     9.73     2.94P    1.41R    0.18  
Grimsby          20   22   -8      -0.35    48.79    -0.85    51.80     7.22   -16.20     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.12P   11.15R    1.91  
Yeovil           18   21   +1      -1.82    38.91     3.75    56.97     7.95    -2.69     0.02     0.35     4.84     1.14P    3.67R    0.58  
Morecambe        20   21  -13      -0.63    47.02    -4.57    49.19     7.11   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   19.72R    4.15  
Cambridge_Utd    20   19  -15      -4.53    24.12    -9.27    50.57     7.42   -21.03     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.11P   15.37R    3.21  
Cheltenham       19   17  -12      -4.64    22.61    -5.03    48.93     7.61   -19.80     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.08P   21.48R    5.07  
Notts_County     20   16  -19      -8.11    10.10   -13.44    47.15     7.55   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   30.43R    7.88  
Macclesfield     20   13  -21      -3.61    27.94    -4.06    34.58     6.77   -43.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.21R   76.27  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 November 2018, Barrow 0 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      22   47  +29       7.19    85.89    14.70    90.23     7.03    44.43    50.23    96.71    65.31P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       22   46  +25       9.23    90.10    14.96    85.70     7.48    35.41    22.99    87.73    39.64P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            22   43  +14       8.82    90.71     8.03    79.78     6.94    19.92     5.17    64.18    18.94P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          22   41  +21       3.07    66.95     9.28    82.58     7.11    33.95    11.69    79.66    32.24P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     21   40  +17       7.87    86.72    11.87    79.27     7.86    24.70     6.56    61.82    18.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     21   40  +11      10.74    94.60    10.14    73.96     7.24    11.08     1.17    30.96     6.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          21   36   +9       4.18    73.47     4.33    74.21     7.29    14.90     1.33    33.73     8.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      21   35   +4       4.56    75.62     1.41    71.28     7.32     7.22     0.49    20.03     4.55P    0.06R    0.00  
Eastleigh          22   35   +1       5.93    80.80     2.38    67.37     7.03     0.47     0.10     7.78     1.41P    0.24R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   22   28   +2      -2.70    34.96     0.88    62.38     7.09     4.46     0.01     2.33     0.51P    1.57R    0.02  
Boreham_Wood       22   28   -2      -2.62    35.19    -3.18    61.01     7.04    -1.30     0.00     1.38     0.33P    2.49R    0.05  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.42    30.10    -9.07    68.29     7.75     3.91     0.24    11.78     3.43P    0.44R    0.00  
Hartlepool         22   28   -6      -0.42    48.05    -3.70    58.74     6.99    -8.80     0.00     0.62     0.15P    5.17R    0.11  
Barrow             22   25   -5      -2.62    35.52    -1.54    54.41     6.97    -9.84     0.00     0.12     0.02P   14.88R    0.56  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.68    55.45     0.76    53.59     7.00   -12.49     0.00     0.08     0.01P   18.03R    0.74  
Aldershot          22   25  -14      -2.95    33.56   -11.15    56.02     7.05   -16.24     0.00     0.22     0.04P   11.53R    0.39  
Dag_&_Red          22   24   -5      -7.06    15.34    -6.60    57.00     7.18    -4.79     0.00     0.39     0.08P    8.41R    0.22  
Bromley            22   24   -6      -5.68    20.83    -5.16    56.02     7.23    -7.59     0.00     0.28     0.05P   11.11R    0.42  
Havant_&_Wville    22   21   -7      -3.43    32.16     2.71    47.71     7.31   -17.33     0.00     0.02     0.01P   47.64R    5.52  
Maidenhead         21   21  -20      -0.79    46.37    -8.90    47.26     7.02   -33.16     0.00     0.01     0.00    53.36R    6.43  
Chesterfield       22   20   -6     -12.33     3.43    -9.56    55.32     7.26    -2.23     0.00     0.17     0.06P   12.18R    0.49  
Maidstone_United   22   19  -15      -4.03    27.47    -4.61    44.46     6.75   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.40R   11.13  
Dover_Athletic     22   17  -19     -10.38     5.66   -14.94    47.42     7.10   -22.47     0.00     0.01     0.00    49.88R    5.89  
Braintree_Town     22   14  -20      -5.48    19.82    -3.03    35.08     6.73   -38.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.61R   68.02