Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 28 November 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 November 2018, Burnley 1 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         13   35  +35       3.57    82.39     8.44    95.74     5.80    84.61    84.98    96.74    99.28    99.88   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        13   33  +21       6.49    93.13     6.19    85.24     6.74    49.93    10.18    58.67    82.78    94.22    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        13   30  +12       4.64    83.97    -0.12    80.61     6.83    37.90     3.02    25.17    58.63    82.20    99.35     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          13   28  +17       2.36    67.83     4.74    77.15     6.90    41.10     1.40    13.17    36.96    68.52    98.65     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          13   27  +12       2.96    72.19     1.83    73.34     7.08    31.59     0.40     5.50    18.71    42.52    95.55     0.00     0.00  
Everton          13   22   +5       2.24    67.34     2.42    55.02     7.22     1.65     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.56    13.16     0.07R    0.00  
Man_Utd          13   21   -1      -1.54    37.19    -7.73    66.56     7.05    16.21     0.02     0.74     3.49    11.82    79.56     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      13   20   +4       2.38    68.32     4.75    50.39     7.02    -4.90     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     4.22     0.41R    0.01  
Watford          13   20   +0       4.38    81.82     3.84    47.82     6.95   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.06     1.16R    0.07  
Leicester        13   18   +1      -0.54    46.10     0.41    50.81     7.21    -3.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14     5.10     0.51R    0.04  
Wolverhampton    13   16   -3       1.37    62.41     2.37    44.27     7.16   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.84     4.14R    0.50  
Brighton         13   15   -5       1.05    60.02     1.53    42.76     6.91   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.38     5.93R    0.69  
Newcastle        13   12   -5      -3.25    25.48    -0.77    43.36     7.02    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53     4.88R    0.61  
West_Ham         13   12   -8      -1.43    39.39     0.30    43.44     7.19   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.58     5.82R    0.81  
Huddersfield     13   10  -14      -0.44    48.06    -1.49    29.93     6.13   -37.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.56R   24.76  
Crystal_Palace   13    9   -9      -5.15    13.83    -3.27    37.98     6.92   -18.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    18.37R    3.39  
Burnley          13    9  -14      -5.66    11.27    -8.55    34.61     6.69   -28.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.82R    8.41  
Southampton      13    8  -14      -5.95     9.66    -7.14    34.83     6.76   -26.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.60R    8.23  
Cardiff          13    8  -15      -3.17    24.48    -2.68    31.22     6.78   -33.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    56.04R   20.03  
Fulham           13    8  -19      -3.61    22.24    -5.05    29.25     6.80   -44.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    68.69R   32.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 November 2018, Aston_Villa 4 2 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         18   36  +11       9.37    93.49     8.12    79.87     8.02    19.24    18.67    35.78    80.59    45.03P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   18   34  +12       3.57    72.33     3.74    81.94     7.74    25.72    26.73    47.19    87.85    59.82P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    18   33  +14       5.56    81.75     9.88    76.85     8.06    22.16    11.43    24.33    69.81    34.70P    0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom       18   31  +13      -1.31    41.12     1.05    80.47     8.26    30.27    23.76    42.07    82.89    54.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       18   31   +8       4.01    73.73     4.53    72.41     8.07    12.35     4.41    10.57    47.52    18.46P    0.06R    0.00  
Derby           18   31   +6       1.84    61.49    -0.64    75.19     7.95    14.70     7.27    17.23    61.52    28.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   18   30   +9       5.18    80.27     8.70    68.25     7.93     8.74     1.37     4.03    28.24     8.62P    0.21R    0.01  
Aston_Villa     18   27   +6      -2.77    32.69    -1.63    70.69     7.98    13.97     2.84     7.78    40.46    16.84P    0.12R    0.01  
QPR             18   27   -4       5.21    80.44     0.56    60.90     7.78   -11.09     0.14     0.43     6.37     1.32P    3.07R    0.35  
Swansea         18   26   +3      -2.40    34.91    -2.54    68.81     8.17     9.56     1.77     5.12    31.23    12.60P    0.26R    0.01  
Blackburn       18   26   -4       2.50    66.15    -2.12    61.98     8.11    -7.60     0.24     0.80     8.97     2.35P    2.63R    0.28  
Birmingham      18   24   +1       3.30    72.03     7.02    56.45     7.71    -7.77     0.01     0.08     2.15     0.39P    8.47R    1.13  
Stoke           18   23   -1      -3.93    26.77    -4.31    65.47     8.24     5.20     0.68     2.26    18.86     6.75P    0.96R    0.09  
Bristol_City    18   22   -1      -2.40    35.28    -0.49    60.51     7.94    -0.93     0.13     0.45     6.58     1.78P    3.30R    0.34  
Brentford       18   21   +3      -5.80    17.20    -0.13    62.30     8.14     7.23     0.28     0.94    11.15     3.48P    2.13R    0.26  
Preston         18   21   -1      -4.24    24.64    -1.63    60.38     8.03     0.33     0.13     0.45     6.63     1.79P    3.58R    0.37  
Wigan           18   21   -7      -2.67    33.97    -5.68    59.54     8.17    -6.59     0.09     0.34     5.26     1.55P    5.11R    0.73  
Sheff_Wed       18   20  -10      -2.35    35.72    -6.33    56.63     7.86   -13.05     0.03     0.11     2.27     0.53P    9.16R    1.49  
Rotherham       18   19   -9       0.62    55.48     0.82    47.41     7.69   -24.72     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   44.94R   13.39  
Reading         18   17   -5      -4.42    23.25     0.61    49.29     7.82   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P   33.31R    8.37  
Millwall        18   17   -7      -5.48    18.33    -3.53    52.85     7.83   -10.91     0.01     0.02     0.75     0.16P   18.37R    3.49  
Bolton          18   17  -12      -0.20    50.09    -1.08    43.13     7.14   -29.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    68.06R   28.99  
Hull            18   16  -10      -6.63    13.76    -6.73    51.04     7.82   -15.72     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.10P   25.76R    5.84  
Ipswich         18   11  -15      -9.13     5.26    -8.20    42.06     7.61   -26.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    70.50R   34.83  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 November 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           18   41  +15      12.28    97.69     9.06    83.65     8.09    21.18    16.47    36.34    89.95    48.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland           18   37  +19       2.68    65.77     4.19    89.23     8.09    40.03    44.18    67.55    97.33    77.89P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             18   35  +17       1.83    60.84     4.30    85.02     8.23    34.31    23.25    46.55    92.72    61.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton                19   35  +14       4.53    74.97     7.43    79.12     8.14    24.60     6.69    18.97    78.06    34.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         19   35  +11       5.20    78.73     5.46    78.85     8.04    21.29     6.05    17.51    76.85    31.80P    0.02R    0.00  
Charlton             18   31   +8       2.99    68.34     3.16    74.72     8.17    15.80     2.26     8.21    58.40    20.62P    0.07R    0.00  
Blackpool            18   31   +7       4.16    74.86     3.83    69.96     8.02     7.99     0.73     2.71    33.49     9.31P    0.38R    0.02  
Doncaster            19   29   +2       3.00    68.35     2.18    66.55     7.91     2.65     0.16     0.90    19.40     4.44P    1.23R    0.02  
Coventry             19   29   +1       5.14    79.49     3.80    62.41     7.75    -3.80     0.04     0.20     8.29     1.59P    3.75R    0.16  
Accrington_Stanley   19   28   -1       4.61    76.74     2.74    61.39     7.93    -6.33     0.05     0.22     6.81     1.36P    5.51R    0.32  
Walsall              19   27   -5       3.47    71.40    -1.28    60.22     7.77   -10.61     0.02     0.11     4.96     0.89P    7.05R    0.43  
Wycombe              19   25   +0       2.25    64.52     5.29    57.56     7.98    -7.22     0.01     0.06     2.91     0.54P   13.21R    1.18  
Fleetwood_Town       19   24   +4      -2.82    33.05     2.96    62.33     7.88     5.96     0.04     0.26     9.27     2.39P    3.72R    0.22  
Burton_Albion        18   24   -2      -0.86    45.12    -2.26    60.43     8.18    -4.95     0.03     0.15     6.15     1.36P    7.45R    0.49  
Southend             19   23   -3      -2.32    36.34    -1.74    59.33     7.90    -4.18     0.01     0.08     4.43     1.05P    8.61R    0.65  
Rochdale             19   23   -9      -0.06    50.68    -4.11    57.21     7.82   -13.73     0.00     0.01     2.25     0.43P   14.55R    1.43  
Shrewsbury           19   21   -4      -4.96    21.81    -4.00    58.47     7.80    -3.23     0.00     0.07     3.44     0.81P    9.81R    0.85  
Scunthorpe           19   21  -11      -4.96    22.46   -10.40    58.58     8.06   -10.76     0.01     0.07     3.77     0.85P   11.42R    1.09  
Gillingham           19   18   -6      -5.39    19.85    -1.58    51.28     7.77   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P   35.85R    6.07  
Oxford_Utd           19   18   -8      -5.84    17.74    -4.41    51.69     7.77   -13.21     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.10P   34.33R    5.50  
Bristol_Rovers       19   17   -3      -7.39    11.61    -0.60    51.06     7.70    -7.26     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.09P   35.95R    5.84  
Plymouth             19   16  -14      -5.49    18.98    -6.72    47.43     7.69   -22.75     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   57.34R   15.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   14  -15      -6.11    15.11    -6.61    42.33     7.32   -27.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    80.83R   36.75  
Bradford             19   14  -17      -7.75     9.85   -10.67    45.05     7.61   -26.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   68.91R   23.96  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 November 2018, Cambridge_Utd 2 2 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     18   37  +17       6.96    87.30     8.97    83.29     7.93    28.78    27.93    67.23    93.47    74.14P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          19   37  +15       3.11    68.61     3.38    85.62     7.82    31.87    41.06    77.17    96.43    83.33P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       19   32  +13       1.42    58.91     6.33    75.28     7.74    22.40     6.05    27.91    71.46    39.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       1.11    57.06     6.02    76.98     7.70    24.76     8.39    35.64    78.60    48.28P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   19   32   -3       7.33    88.07    -0.76    65.45     7.71    -8.50     0.41     3.29    21.68     6.05P    0.18R    0.01  
Exeter           19   31   +9       0.87    55.17     2.88    74.36     7.82    18.50     4.67    23.77    66.62    35.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         19   31   +8       4.50    75.91     7.16    68.98     7.98     9.48     1.22     8.67    39.34    14.99P    0.06R    0.00  
Stevenage        19   31   +2       4.04    74.30     0.63    67.46     7.74     1.31     0.72     5.68    30.50    10.43P    0.09R    0.00  
Bury             19   30  +14      -2.75    33.21     3.85    76.05     8.00    27.73     7.72    33.00    74.77    45.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     19   30   +9       4.68    77.42    10.27    65.40     7.75     6.65     0.35     3.50    23.61     6.92P    0.16R    0.01  
Carlisle         19   26   +0      -1.60    40.22    -2.22    63.88     7.77     1.47     0.21     2.26    17.62     5.71P    0.38R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.25    64.70     0.66    59.92     7.67    -7.99     0.05     0.67     7.54     1.84P    1.28R    0.12  
Oldham           19   25   +5      -5.67    18.88    -1.90    67.32     8.06    12.85     0.87     6.71    32.96    14.53P    0.14R    0.02  
Swindon          19   24   -6      -1.83    39.18    -5.75    62.55     7.76    -3.80     0.08     1.33    13.29     3.95P    0.71R    0.03  
Northampton      19   23   -1      -4.59    23.98    -3.33    62.46     8.08     2.65     0.17     1.79    14.75     5.00P    0.75R    0.05  
Crewe            19   22   -5      -1.66    40.12    -1.43    55.67     7.69    -9.98     0.01     0.14     2.68     0.59P    4.47R    0.40  
Port_Vale        19   22   -6      -1.11    43.87    -2.15    56.93     7.57    -8.73     0.01     0.19     3.31     0.80P    3.07R    0.32  
Yeovil           17   21   +4      -1.16    42.93     5.68    59.68     8.14     2.43     0.06     0.97     9.01     2.51P    1.71R    0.13  
Morecambe        19   21  -11      -0.26    49.45    -4.11    50.12     7.36   -22.50     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.08P   16.30R    2.21  
Grimsby          19   19  -11      -1.27    42.48    -2.98    48.68     7.34   -21.02     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.02P   21.45R    3.06  
Cambridge_Utd    19   19  -13      -3.80    27.39    -8.24    52.05     7.62   -18.82     0.00     0.02     0.81     0.18P   11.31R    1.44  
Cheltenham       18   17   -9      -4.35    23.87    -3.91    50.53     7.75   -16.40     0.00     0.03     0.65     0.13P   15.22R    2.02  
Notts_County     19   15  -19      -7.95    10.05   -13.81    47.64     7.73   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P   27.79R    4.61  
Macclesfield     19   10  -22      -5.46    16.71    -5.24    31.38     6.88   -47.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.93R   85.58  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 November 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 1 Boreham_Wood; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      21   46  +29       7.89    88.88    15.04    91.71     7.23    46.11    58.44    97.48    70.95P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       21   43  +24       8.05    87.65    14.72    84.21     7.71    34.54    16.80    82.31    33.99P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            21   42  +14       9.20    92.09     8.04    80.52     7.15    20.43     5.89    67.47    20.83P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     20   40  +18       8.87    90.31    12.30    80.41     8.10    25.31     8.15    66.05    20.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     21   40  +11      10.65    94.61    10.00    74.10     7.27    11.22     1.11    31.79     6.58P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          21   38  +20       1.90    61.06     8.97    81.04     7.26    33.10     7.46    72.34    27.04P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          21   36   +9       4.25    73.86     4.40    74.19     7.35    14.89     1.14    33.21     8.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      20   34   +4       5.20    78.83     1.80    72.36     7.56     8.31     0.70    24.42     5.66P    0.06R    0.00  
Eastleigh          21   32   -1       4.99    77.68     1.34    65.26     7.22    -2.27     0.04     4.94     0.89P    0.71R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood       21   28   -1      -1.38    41.88    -2.32    63.02     7.27     0.63     0.02     2.79     0.60P    1.50R    0.02  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.31    30.77    -8.91    68.12     7.75     3.66     0.22    11.56     3.25P    0.46R    0.00  
Hartlepool         21   28   -5       0.52    53.76    -3.39    59.98     7.22    -7.97     0.00     1.12     0.22P    4.11R    0.09  
Ebbsfleet_United   21   27   +2      -2.23    37.18     1.07    63.11     7.34     5.01     0.02     3.13     0.72P    1.59R    0.02  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.64    54.94     0.76    53.60     7.03   -12.52     0.00     0.11     0.02P   18.13R    0.69  
Barrow             21   24   -5      -2.36    36.53    -1.54    54.51     7.15   -10.28     0.00     0.18     0.03P   15.31R    0.61  
Aldershot          21   24  -14      -2.90    33.65   -11.58    55.51     7.23   -17.70     0.00     0.22     0.05P   13.85R    0.49  
Bromley            21   23   -6      -5.43    21.08    -5.26    55.89     7.47    -8.38     0.00     0.34     0.07P   12.24R    0.51  
Havant_&_Wville    21   21   -5      -2.93    34.57     3.24    49.29     7.60   -14.90     0.00     0.05     0.01P   39.46R    3.80  
Dag_&_Red          21   21   -7      -7.74    12.21    -7.17    55.11     7.36    -7.13     0.00     0.18     0.04P   13.87R    0.59  
Maidenhead         20   20  -20      -0.68    47.14    -9.22    47.40     7.28   -33.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.79R    6.64  
Chesterfield       21   19   -6     -11.90     3.59    -9.43    56.13     7.42    -1.63     0.00     0.29     0.08P   10.84R    0.46  
Maidstone_United   21   19  -13      -3.21    31.31    -3.50    46.17     6.93   -23.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.76R    7.22  
Dover_Athletic     21   14  -20     -12.06     2.75   -15.91    45.27     7.23   -24.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.75R    9.79  
Braintree_Town     21   13  -20      -5.37    19.67    -3.44    34.79     6.95   -39.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.55R   69.05