Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 26 November 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 November 2018, Bournemouth 1 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         13   35  +35       3.55    82.07     8.32    95.79     5.78    84.81    85.42    96.79    99.35    99.85   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        13   33  +21       6.53    92.94     6.27    85.14     6.77    49.69    10.00    58.60    82.67    94.27    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        13   30  +12       4.71    84.10     0.02    80.47     6.85    37.61     2.95    25.15    57.88    81.66    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          13   28  +17       2.39    67.88     4.78    77.02     6.87    40.80     1.27    13.07    37.11    68.39    98.46     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          13   27  +12       2.89    71.61     1.72    73.38     7.10    31.67     0.34     5.73    19.40    43.37    95.54     0.00     0.00  
Everton          13   22   +5       2.16    66.73     2.29    55.08     7.20     1.71     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.64    13.29     0.08R    0.00  
Man_Utd          13   21   -1      -1.54    37.43    -7.74    66.44     7.07    16.10     0.02     0.66     3.43    11.57    79.29     0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth      13   20   +4       2.41    68.37     4.81    50.33     7.02    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     4.30     0.46R    0.04  
Watford          13   20   +0       4.39    81.78     3.85    47.80     6.96   -12.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.02     1.27R    0.07  
Leicester        13   18   +1      -0.47    46.51     0.45    50.77     7.20    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     5.18     0.52R    0.04  
Wolverhampton    13   16   -3       1.40    62.39     2.43    44.33     7.15   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.92     4.39R    0.47  
Brighton         13   15   -5       0.99    59.57     1.45    42.79     6.84   -15.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     5.67R    0.58  
West_Ham         13   12   -8      -1.39    39.55     0.41    43.46     7.24   -14.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70     6.08R    0.81  
Huddersfield     13   10  -14      -0.44    48.05    -1.51    29.98     6.14   -37.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.13R   25.30  
Newcastle        12    9   -6      -4.69    15.01    -1.46    41.34     7.23   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     9.39R    1.49  
Crystal_Palace   13    9   -9      -5.17    13.68    -3.29    37.90     6.94   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    19.08R    3.63  
Burnley          12    9  -13      -4.49    16.13    -7.86    36.28     6.94   -26.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    27.22R    5.78  
Southampton      13    8  -14      -5.98     9.60    -7.20    34.97     6.82   -26.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    33.55R    8.64  
Cardiff          13    8  -15      -3.18    24.41    -2.68    31.17     6.83   -33.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    57.29R   20.92  
Fulham           13    8  -19      -3.63    22.00    -5.04    29.34     6.80   -44.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    68.89R   32.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 November 2018, Aston_Villa 4 2 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         18   36  +11       9.32    93.07     8.08    79.94     8.05    19.35    19.17    36.43    80.56    45.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   18   34  +12       3.53    71.99     3.73    81.90     7.72    25.66    26.77    47.07    87.93    59.90P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    18   33  +14       5.56    81.70     9.86    76.89     8.08    22.25    11.52    24.51    69.80    34.86P    0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom       18   31  +13      -1.25    41.47     1.12    80.31     8.26    30.08    23.15    41.05    82.49    54.37P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       18   31   +8       3.96    73.83     4.46    72.50     8.05    12.52     4.26    10.78    48.22    18.77P    0.05R    0.00  
Derby           18   31   +6       1.78    61.20    -0.70    75.20     7.97    14.81     7.22    17.13    61.27    28.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   18   30   +9       5.10    80.20     8.57    68.41     7.91     8.97     1.41     4.16    28.86     8.95P    0.22R    0.01  
Aston_Villa     18   27   +6      -2.84    32.22    -1.78    70.75     8.02    14.05     2.98     7.83    40.71    16.79P    0.13R    0.01  
QPR             18   27   -4       5.10    80.19     0.39    61.00     7.74   -10.95     0.11     0.44     6.31     1.31P    2.92R    0.29  
Swansea         18   26   +3      -2.41    34.83    -2.57    68.81     8.15     9.60     1.79     5.04    31.12    12.28P    0.29R    0.01  
Blackburn       18   26   -4       2.42    65.68    -2.22    62.05     8.13    -7.48     0.27     0.91     9.00     2.51P    2.47R    0.24  
Birmingham      18   24   +1       3.43    73.02     7.29    56.18     7.71    -8.22     0.02     0.08     2.05     0.36P    9.10R    1.19  
Stoke           18   23   -1      -3.80    27.36    -4.12    65.23     8.22     4.85     0.67     2.10    17.98     6.29P    0.99R    0.08  
Bristol_City    18   22   -1      -2.39    35.34    -0.48    60.45     7.95    -1.00     0.13     0.46     6.52     1.72P    3.35R    0.38  
Brentford       18   21   +3      -5.76    17.55    -0.06    62.40     8.09     7.33     0.24     1.00    10.82     3.37P    2.09R    0.20  
Preston         18   21   -1      -4.30    24.35    -1.75    60.46     8.09     0.44     0.15     0.50     6.79     1.99P    3.55R    0.44  
Wigan           18   21   -7      -2.75    33.47    -5.76    59.72     8.15    -6.38     0.10     0.35     5.46     1.54P    4.80R    0.65  
Sheff_Wed       18   20  -10      -2.33    35.95    -6.33    56.62     7.91   -13.06     0.02     0.11     2.41     0.54P    9.45R    1.54  
Rotherham       18   19   -9       0.59    55.61     0.83    47.49     7.73   -24.72     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   44.42R   13.16  
Reading         18   17   -5      -4.35    23.61     0.71    49.29     7.85   -14.84     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.06P   32.97R    8.46  
Millwall        18   17   -7      -5.37    18.74    -3.36    52.79     7.86   -11.01     0.01     0.03     0.81     0.18P   18.50R    3.62  
Bolton          18   17  -12      -0.25    49.79    -1.12    43.16     7.20   -29.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   67.73R   28.86  
Hull            18   16  -10      -6.55    14.30    -6.63    50.95     7.86   -15.92     0.00     0.02     0.48     0.11P   25.97R    5.90  
Ipswich         18   11  -15      -9.10     5.35    -8.15    41.95     7.58   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    70.96R   34.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 November 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           18   41  +15      12.22    97.81     8.96    83.98     8.03    21.68    17.48    37.97    90.75    49.85P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           18   37  +19       2.78    66.51     4.40    88.85     8.23    39.46    42.80    65.86    96.93    76.40P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             18   35  +17       1.83    60.63     4.30    85.02     8.21    34.34    23.43    46.81    92.78    62.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton                19   35  +14       4.62    75.39     7.60    78.99     8.15    24.37     6.62    18.91    77.52    33.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough         19   35  +11       5.07    78.14     5.23    79.00     8.04    21.55     6.35    18.18    77.45    32.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Charlton             18   31   +8       3.03    68.64     3.25    74.54     8.13    15.51     2.31     7.64    57.47    19.92P    0.08R    0.00  
Blackpool            18   31   +7       4.15    74.87     3.82    70.04     7.96     8.04     0.65     2.60    34.01     9.24P    0.34R    0.00  
Doncaster            19   29   +2       2.98    68.15     2.16    66.49     7.89     2.62     0.19     0.87    19.50     4.49P    1.21R    0.05  
Coventry             19   29   +1       5.17    79.52     3.84    62.38     7.80    -3.87     0.04     0.25     8.24     1.73P    3.91R    0.15  
Accrington_Stanley   19   28   -1       4.64    77.10     2.84    61.24     7.89    -6.50     0.03     0.15     6.43     1.28P    5.69R    0.35  
Walsall              19   27   -5       3.51    71.68    -1.18    60.08     7.67   -10.83     0.02     0.08     4.62     0.79P    7.15R    0.45  
Wycombe              19   25   +0       2.23    64.42     5.29    57.60     7.97    -7.22     0.01     0.05     3.12     0.52P   13.08R    1.24  
Fleetwood_Town       19   24   +4      -2.91    33.02     2.79    62.42     7.88     6.12     0.03     0.25     9.56     2.37P    3.66R    0.22  
Burton_Albion        18   24   -2      -0.85    45.24    -2.27    60.57     8.22    -4.78     0.03     0.18     6.63     1.54P    7.24R    0.52  
Southend             19   23   -3      -2.26    36.47    -1.66    59.26     7.89    -4.23     0.01     0.07     4.29     0.94P    8.85R    0.66  
Rochdale             19   23   -9       0.01    51.04    -4.06    57.28     7.80   -13.64     0.00     0.04     2.29     0.42P   14.30R    1.46  
Shrewsbury           19   21   -4      -4.84    22.36    -3.84    58.32     7.75    -3.43     0.01     0.04     3.16     0.72P   10.17R    0.77  
Scunthorpe           19   21  -11      -4.95    22.40   -10.39    58.60     8.07   -10.73     0.00     0.05     3.78     0.84P   11.47R    1.06  
Gillingham           19   18   -6      -5.52    19.41    -1.80    51.43     7.83   -11.95     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.13P   35.58R    6.00  
Oxford_Utd           19   18   -8      -5.99    17.18    -4.64    51.86     7.81   -12.99     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.11P   33.78R    5.34  
Bristol_Rovers       19   17   -3      -7.41    11.68    -0.62    51.00     7.69    -7.35     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.09P   36.32R    5.95  
Plymouth             19   16  -14      -5.44    19.04    -6.70    47.46     7.63   -22.69     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   57.30R   14.86  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   14  -15      -6.21    14.82    -6.81    42.44     7.34   -27.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   80.49R   36.63  
Bradford             19   14  -17      -7.66    10.13   -10.52    44.99     7.56   -26.13     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   69.34R   24.29  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 November 2018, Cambridge_Utd 2 2 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     18   37  +17       7.14    87.81     9.27    82.95     7.95    28.31    26.78    65.83    92.94    72.91P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          19   37  +15       3.07    68.50     3.33    85.66     7.78    31.93    41.61    77.57    96.55    83.58P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       19   32  +13       1.43    59.10     6.37    75.15     7.67    22.18     5.83    27.22    71.19    38.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        19   32  +13       1.20    57.33     6.07    77.01     7.69    24.82     8.54    36.12    78.89    48.61P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   19   32   -3       7.35    87.96    -0.70    65.41     7.72    -8.54     0.42     3.39    21.48     6.26P    0.19R    0.01  
Exeter           19   31   +9       0.65    53.95     2.59    74.57     7.80    18.84     4.91    24.70    67.69    36.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         19   31   +8       4.58    76.44     7.27    68.83     8.00     9.28     1.24     8.42    38.34    14.39P    0.05R    0.00  
Stevenage        19   31   +2       4.19    74.89     0.93    67.26     7.71     1.04     0.67     5.31    29.62     9.79P    0.08R    0.00  
Bury             19   30  +14      -2.73    33.45     3.85    76.02     8.01    27.62     7.99    33.37    74.54    46.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     19   30   +9       4.58    76.88    10.13    65.55     7.79     6.88     0.44     3.77    24.02     7.18P    0.19R    0.01  
Carlisle         19   26   +0      -1.64    40.20    -2.29    63.95     7.81     1.56     0.27     2.46    17.84     5.82P    0.36R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     19   26   -3       2.18    64.01     0.57    59.96     7.72    -8.00     0.03     0.60     7.73     1.84P    1.42R    0.13  
Oldham           19   25   +5      -5.75    18.44    -2.02    67.38     7.97    12.94     0.82     6.50    33.18    14.44P    0.15R    0.00  
Swindon          19   24   -6      -1.91    38.77    -5.89    62.75     7.81    -3.45     0.16     1.56    13.75     4.21P    0.63R    0.02  
Northampton      19   23   -1      -4.63    24.00    -3.37    62.47     8.07     2.68     0.16     1.81    14.68     5.02P    0.72R    0.06  
Crewe            19   22   -5      -1.68    40.34    -1.40    55.70     7.66    -9.94     0.01     0.17     2.73     0.58P    4.32R    0.41  
Port_Vale        19   22   -6      -1.17    43.31    -2.26    57.04     7.60    -8.60     0.01     0.20     3.54     0.83P    3.02R    0.27  
Yeovil           17   21   +4      -1.15    42.89     5.67    59.69     8.14     2.44     0.08     0.94     8.94     2.58P    1.70R    0.12  
Morecambe        19   21  -11      -0.15    50.33    -3.99    50.06     7.34   -22.63     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.06P   16.21R    1.96  
Grimsby          19   19  -11      -1.25    42.70    -2.97    48.79     7.34   -20.88     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.04P   20.91R    2.69  
Cambridge_Utd    19   19  -13      -3.80    27.44    -8.29    52.17     7.63   -18.66     0.00     0.03     0.88     0.21P   10.88R    1.34  
Cheltenham       18   17   -9      -4.50    23.18    -4.14    50.51     7.81   -16.39     0.00     0.02     0.65     0.14P   15.78R    2.03  
Notts_County     19   15  -19      -7.83    10.00   -13.62    47.56     7.66   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P   28.11R    4.59  
Macclesfield     19   10  -22      -5.38    17.03    -5.13    31.23     6.82   -47.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.26R   86.35  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 November 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 1 Boreham_Wood; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      21   46  +29       7.89    88.97    15.04    91.73     7.20    46.15    58.59    97.69    71.13P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       21   43  +24       8.27    88.41    15.03    83.98     7.75    34.21    16.14    81.62    32.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            21   42  +14       9.19    92.12     8.06    80.54     7.10    20.43     6.06    67.70    21.07P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     20   40  +18       9.02    90.57    12.53    80.25     8.14    25.09     8.07    65.26    20.39P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     21   40  +11      10.63    94.68     9.96    74.10     7.24    11.24     1.05    31.95     6.52P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          21   38  +20       1.92    60.99     9.00    80.89     7.35    32.85     7.88    71.37    27.23P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          21   36   +9       4.18    73.47     4.35    74.19     7.36    14.87     1.19    34.01     8.72P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      20   34   +4       5.18    78.72     1.78    72.42     7.57     8.36     0.77    24.96     5.94P    0.03R    0.00  
Eastleigh          21   32   -1       4.96    77.28     1.28    65.18     7.26    -2.36     0.01     4.83     0.81P    0.83R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood       21   28   -1      -1.39    42.15    -2.35    63.06     7.21     0.68     0.02     2.90     0.61P    1.53R    0.03  
Barnet             20   28   -3      -3.47    30.18    -9.13    68.24     7.74     3.85     0.19    11.96     3.48P    0.46R    0.01  
Hartlepool         21   28   -5       0.45    53.27    -3.42    60.12     7.19    -7.79     0.00     1.13     0.20P    3.92R    0.07  
Ebbsfleet_United   21   27   +2      -2.10    37.83     1.22    63.10     7.31     4.94     0.02     3.10     0.70P    1.49R    0.02  
Halifax            21   25   -5       0.65    55.09     0.75    53.64     7.00   -12.46     0.00     0.11     0.01P   18.14R    0.66  
Barrow             21   24   -5      -2.46    36.23    -1.71    54.68     7.18    -9.99     0.00     0.18     0.03P   14.73R    0.53  
Aldershot          21   24  -14      -2.97    32.69   -11.69    55.54     7.18   -17.63     0.00     0.20     0.04P   13.46R    0.49  
Bromley            21   23   -6      -5.46    21.14    -5.28    55.95     7.45    -8.33     0.00     0.36     0.07P   11.90R    0.44  
Havant_&_Wville    21   21   -5      -2.92    34.22     3.27    49.33     7.57   -14.85     0.00     0.02     0.00P   39.48R    3.59  
Dag_&_Red          21   21   -7      -7.87    11.70    -7.38    55.24     7.33    -6.92     0.00     0.27     0.06P   13.63R    0.55  
Maidenhead         20   20  -20      -0.62    47.29    -9.11    47.35     7.19   -33.75     0.00     0.01     0.00P   53.22R    6.49  
Chesterfield       21   19   -6     -11.89     3.62    -9.43    56.18     7.54    -1.54     0.00     0.38     0.10P   11.07R    0.45  
Maidstone_United   21   19  -13      -3.25    31.44    -3.62    46.23     6.98   -23.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.75R    7.03  
Dover_Athletic     21   14  -20     -12.02     2.76   -15.83    45.20     7.26   -24.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.36R    9.72  
Braintree_Town     21   13  -20      -5.26    20.04    -3.31    34.58     6.83   -39.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.99R   69.92