Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 21 November 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 November 2018, Arsenal 1 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         12   32  +31       3.28    80.93     6.95    94.67     6.06    81.33    84.53    96.13    99.06    99.81    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   30  +18       6.09    92.42     5.20    83.27     7.02    46.19     8.97    51.02    76.76    90.86    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   28  +19       3.28    75.55     5.95    78.50     7.13    43.09     3.32    23.53    50.72    76.46    98.73     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        12   27  +10       3.59    78.30    -1.21    78.46     7.13    34.94     2.71    21.86    48.70    74.05    98.39     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          12   24  +11       1.82    64.64     1.64    71.95     7.32    31.12     0.39     5.58    17.50    38.25    92.04     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      12   20   +5       3.31    75.39     5.00    51.52     7.25    -4.22     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.22     5.49     0.33R    0.02  
Watford          12   20   +3       4.67    83.80     5.02    49.10     7.13    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     2.83     0.75R    0.03  
Man_Utd          12   20   -1      -0.52    44.97    -6.83    68.24     7.23    18.61     0.09     1.84     7.08    19.43    82.96     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   19   +4       1.25    60.66     2.39    54.16     7.47     1.86     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.53    10.51     0.14R    0.00  
Leicester        12   17   +1      -0.02    50.38     0.58    51.44     7.47    -2.82     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.22     5.67     0.42R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    12   16   -1       2.66    72.44     4.12    47.59     7.44    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     2.10     1.67R    0.13  
Brighton         12   14   -5       1.39    63.45     1.46    43.06     7.03   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.41     5.04R    0.45  
West_Ham         12   12   -4      -1.34    39.59     1.68    44.61     7.36   -11.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.74     4.14R    0.37  
Newcastle        12    9   -6      -4.74    14.54    -1.58    41.33     7.18   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     8.19R    0.93  
Burnley          12    9  -13      -4.39    16.73    -7.75    36.47     7.00   -26.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    24.60R    3.87  
Crystal_Palace   12    8   -9      -5.39    11.64    -4.08    37.22     7.07   -20.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    20.98R    3.05  
Southampton      12    8  -13      -4.70    14.12    -6.44    36.77     7.06   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    23.75R    4.12  
Cardiff          12    8  -14      -2.56    28.51    -2.73    31.74     7.03   -34.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    52.45R   13.67  
Huddersfield     12    7  -16      -2.25    30.11    -3.53    26.96     6.25   -41.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.59R   35.00  
Fulham           12    5  -20      -5.07    11.21    -5.83    26.88     6.92   -46.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.95R   38.36  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 November 2018, Birmingham 3 3 Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         17   33   +8       8.32    91.39     6.03    76.31     8.18    13.30    12.71    25.67    67.19    33.98P    0.03R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   17   31  +11       2.20    64.69     3.16    79.96     7.93    24.26    25.12    43.59    82.96    55.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    17   30  +12       4.74    79.02     9.06    75.22     8.24    20.22    11.17    23.23    63.77    32.47P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       17   30   +8       4.62    78.03     4.86    73.09     8.22    12.91     7.09    15.74    52.77    23.59P    0.08R    0.00  
West_Brom       17   28  +12      -2.35    34.31     0.91    78.69     8.42    29.03    22.95    39.62    77.95    51.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           17   28   +5       0.50    53.25    -1.17    72.96     8.14    12.94     6.53    15.04    52.48    24.66P    0.06R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest   17   27   +7       3.92    75.25     7.23    65.81     8.10     5.61     1.12     3.11    20.75     6.39P    0.77R    0.04  
Swansea         17   26   +6      -1.72    38.36    -0.51    72.18     8.24    15.38     6.06    13.79    48.91    24.18P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackburn       17   26   -1       2.90    69.12    -0.68    64.23     8.28    -3.14     0.80     2.18    15.46     4.94P    1.68R    0.15  
QPR             17   26   -4       5.19    81.35    -0.15    60.64     7.95   -11.98     0.17     0.72     6.83     1.67P    4.06R    0.41  
Aston_Villa     17   24   +4      -3.35    28.83    -2.09    69.19     8.21    12.13     3.02     7.65    35.44    15.39P    0.30R    0.02  
Birmingham      17   24   +3       3.87    75.91     7.66    57.32     7.83    -6.31     0.05     0.21     3.24     0.64P    7.74R    0.95  
Bristol_City    17   22   +1      -1.75    38.73     0.40    62.12     8.11     1.53     0.37     1.24    10.49     3.21P    2.69R    0.27  
Stoke           17   22   -1      -3.20    30.09    -3.80    66.67     8.39     6.47     1.55     4.22    24.88     9.75P    0.86R    0.08  
Brentford       17   21   +4      -4.72    21.40     0.40    63.90     8.27     8.64     0.83     2.38    16.46     5.98P    1.67R    0.13  
Wigan           17   20   -7      -2.14    36.38    -5.40    60.85     8.36    -5.26     0.23     0.80     8.35     2.55P    4.56R    0.61  
Sheff_Wed       17   20   -9      -1.33    41.83    -5.88    58.27     8.10   -11.56     0.10     0.31     4.34     1.12P    7.57R    1.17  
Preston         17   18   -4      -4.95    19.74    -3.32    58.04     8.22    -3.71     0.10     0.35     4.48     1.22P    7.65R    1.03  
Rotherham       17   18   -9       0.92    57.92     0.62    47.50     7.88   -25.09     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.03P   46.71R   14.18  
Reading         17   16   -5      -4.29    23.15     0.35    48.80     7.98   -16.30     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.08P   38.01R   10.27  
Millwall        17   16   -7      -4.67    21.51    -2.95    53.92     8.09    -9.87     0.03     0.09     1.42     0.34P   17.40R    3.36  
Hull            17   16   -8      -5.52    17.68    -5.16    53.24     8.04   -12.37     0.01     0.05     1.21     0.29P   19.22R    3.76  
Bolton          17   16  -12      -0.20    49.88    -1.53    42.68     7.29   -31.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    71.73R   33.58  
Ipswich         17   11  -14      -8.27     6.62    -8.02    43.18     7.80   -25.57     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   67.08R   29.97  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 November 2018, Accrington_Stanley 0 2 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           17   38  +14      10.96    96.67     8.56    81.72     8.26    19.81    11.27    28.79    85.42    41.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland           17   36  +19       3.50    71.14     4.96    90.14     8.31    40.75    47.72    72.00    97.87    81.02P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             17   34  +17       2.44    65.06     4.61    86.29     8.43    35.72    27.49    54.17    94.43    67.99P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         18   34  +11       5.57    80.81     5.47    79.68     8.23    21.93     7.28    21.39    80.13    36.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton                18   32  +12       3.83    72.69     6.86    76.74     8.39    21.37     4.07    13.31    69.00    27.46P    0.07R    0.00  
Charlton             17   28   +6       2.21    64.28     2.36    72.45     8.30    12.84     1.24     5.34    48.69    16.05P    0.24R    0.01  
Blackpool            17   28   +4       3.37    71.42     1.98    67.39     8.14     3.67     0.32     1.46    24.33     6.19P    1.04R    0.03  
Doncaster            18   28   +2       3.09    69.34     1.75    65.94     8.01     1.19     0.17     0.88    18.50     4.33P    1.70R    0.03  
Coventry             18   28   +1       5.28    80.71     3.52    62.54     8.02    -4.15     0.06     0.36     9.81     2.07P    4.07R    0.12  
Accrington_Stanley   18   28   +0       5.67    82.14     3.31    63.01     8.12    -4.93     0.08     0.41    10.78     2.29P    3.96R    0.16  
Walsall              18   26   -5       3.64    72.83    -1.67    59.68     7.84   -11.91     0.02     0.12     4.82     0.94P    8.08R    0.34  
Fleetwood_Town       18   24   +5      -1.55    40.30     3.78    64.26     8.06     7.75     0.10     0.59    15.01     3.83P    2.41R    0.05  
Burton_Albion        17   24   +1      -0.52    46.96    -0.76    63.21     8.44     0.21     0.09     0.60    13.00     3.34P    4.02R    0.15  
Southend             18   23   -2      -1.02    44.14    -0.87    61.39     8.14    -2.11     0.05     0.24     8.27     1.88P    5.57R    0.25  
Wycombe              18   22   -1       0.95    57.01     4.65    55.09     8.13    -9.35     0.00     0.02     1.86     0.34P   21.09R    1.80  
Shrewsbury           18   21   -3      -3.81    27.00    -3.36    60.34     7.93    -1.43     0.02     0.12     6.12     1.54P    6.60R    0.25  
Scunthorpe           18   21  -10      -3.89    27.20    -9.91    60.27     8.33    -9.23     0.01     0.15     6.56     1.59P    8.42R    0.52  
Rochdale             18   20  -10      -1.25    42.96    -4.47    55.26     8.06   -15.27     0.00     0.03     1.75     0.37P   20.93R    1.98  
Gillingham           18   18   -4      -4.82    21.93    -0.89    53.28     8.11    -9.19     0.00     0.01     1.19     0.25P   27.22R    2.71  
Oxford_Utd           18   18   -6      -5.05    20.71    -3.32    54.23     8.07    -9.49     0.00     0.02     1.48     0.33P   23.55R    2.22  
Bristol_Rovers       18   17   -1      -6.83    13.04     0.18    52.63     7.90    -4.82     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.19P   28.33R    2.83  
Plymouth             18   13  -15      -6.97    11.96    -7.51    45.23     7.94   -24.57     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   67.25R   17.73  
AFC_Wimbledon        18   11  -16      -7.68     8.47    -7.53    40.11     7.48   -29.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   86.74R   40.27  
Bradford             18   11  -19      -8.78     6.03   -11.71    42.51     7.77   -29.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   78.71R   28.55  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 November 2018, Bury 4 0 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

MK_Dons          18   37  +16       4.38    76.36     4.27    87.87     7.94    34.03    47.39    82.33    97.63    87.27P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     17   36  +17       7.46    89.61     9.18    83.61     8.19    28.78    24.79    65.09    92.77    72.11P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   18   32   -2       8.55    92.10     0.01    66.83     7.98    -7.46     0.49     4.53    26.33     7.78P    0.14R    0.01  
Colchester       18   31  +13       1.94    62.25     6.53    75.79     7.93    22.66     5.36    27.33    72.06    39.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield        18   31  +13       1.37    58.78     5.79    77.44     7.83    24.92     7.29    34.83    78.54    47.62P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           18   30   +9       0.98    56.01     2.51    74.59     7.99    18.39     3.76    22.35    65.98    33.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         18   30   +8       4.94    78.56     7.28    69.13     8.22     9.20     1.01     8.03    38.68    14.21P    0.06R    0.00  
Bury             18   29  +14      -2.23    35.70     4.04    77.04     8.30    28.66     8.02    34.96    76.61    47.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        18   28   +1       2.62    66.69    -0.06    64.91     7.88    -0.93     0.28     2.67    19.59     5.88P    0.24R    0.01  
Forest_Green     18   27   +8       3.02    69.44     9.20    62.97     7.91     4.50     0.13     1.81    15.02     4.28P    0.36R    0.01  
Carlisle         18   26   +1      -0.28    48.63    -1.31    66.14     7.96     3.82     0.35     3.70    25.09     8.44P    0.15R    0.00  
Oldham           18   24   +5      -5.47    19.18    -2.19    67.86     8.23    13.13     0.73     6.63    34.38    14.86P    0.10R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     18   23   -6       1.41    59.85    -1.15    57.43     7.87   -12.40     0.02     0.30     4.21     0.94P    2.70R    0.18  
Northampton      18   22   -1      -3.82    27.28    -2.76    63.47     8.35     3.65     0.16     2.22    17.52     6.06P    0.51R    0.04  
Crewe            18   22   -2      -1.04    44.04     0.43    57.88     7.91    -5.72     0.02     0.30     4.96     1.16P    2.35R    0.15  
Port_Vale        18   22   -5       0.05    51.02    -1.39    58.70     7.82    -7.16     0.01     0.36     5.54     1.37P    1.89R    0.10  
Yeovil           16   21   +5       0.33    52.98     6.82    62.15     8.32     5.07     0.16     1.77    14.03     4.17P    0.84R    0.04  
Swindon          18   21   -7      -3.33    29.65    -6.52    60.63     7.99    -5.17     0.03     0.68     8.99     2.49P    1.27R    0.07  
Morecambe        18   20  -11       0.16    52.17    -4.08    50.50     7.50   -22.49     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.07P   14.25R    1.28  
Grimsby          18   18  -11      -1.24    42.60    -3.60    48.45     7.46   -21.70     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   21.00R    2.09  
Cambridge_Utd    18   18  -13      -3.74    26.98    -8.80    51.96     7.77   -19.41     0.00     0.03     0.81     0.15P   10.52R    0.86  
Cheltenham       17   14  -10      -5.76    15.89    -4.60    48.49     8.02   -17.96     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.10P   21.38R    2.35  
Notts_County     18   14  -19      -7.49    10.31   -13.62    47.78     7.87   -26.47     0.00     0.02     0.25     0.07P   25.41R    3.11  
Macclesfield     18    7  -23      -7.09     8.40    -5.99    28.80     6.97   -49.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.80R   89.70  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 November 2018, Hartlepool 1 3 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      20   43  +27       6.74    85.34    13.80    89.55     7.43    43.40    47.14    94.88    62.32P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       20   42  +24       8.52    89.60    14.81    84.69     8.01    34.83    21.42    82.37    37.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            20   42  +16      10.04    94.57     9.39    82.45     7.29    23.24    11.79    75.35    27.76P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     20   39  +11      10.96    95.42     9.89    74.36     7.45    11.03     1.56    32.59     6.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     19   37  +16       8.37    89.31    12.09    79.20     8.35    23.96     7.75    59.38    18.78P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          20   35  +19       0.71    54.29     8.62    79.65     7.49    32.43     6.86    64.30    24.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      19   34   +5       6.73    85.57     3.09    74.85     7.78    10.90     2.09    35.56     9.16P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead          20   33   +8       2.79    66.76     3.71    71.75     7.47    12.82     0.68    22.51     5.48P    0.05R    0.00  
Eastleigh          20   31   -1       5.38    79.73     1.37    65.42     7.42    -2.51     0.08     5.42     0.96P    0.65R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood       20   28   +0      -0.65    46.13    -2.18    64.26     7.40     1.41     0.04     4.16     0.93P    0.92R    0.01  
Barnet             19   28   -2      -2.29    36.01    -8.39    70.17     7.94     5.62     0.55    17.35     5.19P    0.18R    0.00  
Hartlepool         20   28   -4       1.61    60.43    -2.74    61.59     7.43    -6.64     0.01     2.10     0.41P    2.37R    0.04  
Halifax            20   25   -1       0.67    55.28     2.82    56.02     7.19    -6.90     0.00     0.31     0.05P    9.21R    0.34  
Ebbsfleet_United   20   24   -2      -2.60    34.71    -1.19    60.68     7.48    -0.18     0.01     1.56     0.36P    3.03R    0.09  
Aldershot          20   24  -12      -1.95    38.73   -10.14    57.88     7.43   -14.22     0.00     0.54     0.09P    7.03R    0.19  
Bromley            20   23   -4      -4.48    24.90    -3.90    58.17     7.65    -5.01     0.01     0.82     0.18P    6.46R    0.20  
Barrow             20   21   -7      -3.70    28.60    -3.09    51.97     7.35   -13.55     0.00     0.07     0.01P   22.86R    1.48  
Maidstone_United   20   19  -10      -2.54    34.92    -1.81    48.17     7.22   -19.07     0.00     0.01     0.00    41.90R    4.40  
Chesterfield       20   18   -6     -11.63     3.42    -9.58    56.61     7.72    -1.42     0.00     0.60     0.17P    8.83R    0.36  
Havant_&_Wville    20   18   -8      -3.20    32.01     2.10    46.39     7.68   -19.62     0.00     0.01     0.00    51.96R    7.45  
Dag_&_Red          20   18   -9      -9.03     7.77    -8.71    52.94     7.53    -9.97     0.00     0.09     0.02P   19.46R    1.23  
Maidenhead         19   17  -21      -2.45    35.41   -10.31    44.70     7.36   -36.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.47R   11.61  
Braintree_Town     20   13  -18      -4.95    21.22    -3.24    35.67     7.09   -38.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.18R   57.90  
Dover_Athletic     20   11  -21     -13.36     1.31   -16.40    43.18     7.45   -25.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.42R   14.70