Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 17 November 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 November 2018, Arsenal 1 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         12   32  +31       3.34    81.57     7.06    94.57     6.03    81.15    83.83    95.91    98.99    99.82   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   30  +18       5.99    92.19     4.99    83.50     7.05    46.61     9.48    51.76    76.88    91.09    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   28  +19       3.27    75.59     5.99    78.56     7.14    43.15     3.40    22.99    50.61    76.35    98.73     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        12   27  +10       3.52    77.73    -1.31    78.63     7.09    35.16     2.76    21.91    49.01    74.65    98.53     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          12   24  +11       1.80    64.22     1.56    71.97     7.32    31.19     0.44     5.53    17.14    37.87    92.21     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      12   20   +5       3.37    75.67     5.07    51.38     7.24    -4.52     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.26     5.19     0.34R    0.01  
Watford          12   20   +3       4.71    83.83     5.06    49.05     7.14    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     2.66     0.78R    0.03  
Man_Utd          12   20   -1      -0.53    45.10    -6.84    68.31     7.24    18.64     0.09     1.88     7.10    18.96    83.21     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   19   +4       1.22    60.32     2.33    54.18     7.45     1.89     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.62    10.36     0.12R    0.01  
Leicester        12   17   +1      -0.03    50.29     0.59    51.42     7.44    -2.85     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.23     5.70     0.45R    0.01  
Wolverhampton    12   16   -1       2.68    72.59     4.14    47.50     7.42    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     2.10     1.75R    0.11  
Brighton         12   14   -5       1.42    63.93     1.53    42.93     7.05   -15.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.42     5.55R    0.36  
West_Ham         12   12   -4      -1.30    40.06     1.75    44.52     7.34   -11.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.79     4.22R    0.36  
Newcastle        12    9   -6      -4.72    14.66    -1.49    41.21     7.17   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     8.58R    1.11  
Burnley          12    9  -13      -4.45    16.19    -7.85    36.53     6.96   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    24.13R    3.73  
Crystal_Palace   12    8   -9      -5.40    11.58    -4.07    37.31     7.05   -20.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    20.60R    2.86  
Southampton      12    8  -13      -4.68    14.51    -6.46    36.80     7.10   -24.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    23.42R    4.25  
Cardiff          12    8  -14      -2.51    28.89    -2.63    31.64     7.03   -34.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.11R   13.97  
Huddersfield     12    7  -16      -2.21    30.31    -3.46    26.97     6.24   -41.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.52R   35.17  
Fulham           12    5  -20      -5.13    11.05    -5.96    27.02     6.93   -46.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.42R   38.03  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 November 2018, Birmingham 3 3 Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         17   33   +8       8.35    91.51     6.02    76.36     8.17    13.33    12.80    25.74    67.48    34.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   17   31  +11       2.20    64.71     3.17    79.82     7.92    24.11    24.79    43.17    82.31    55.36P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    17   30  +12       4.85    79.39     9.24    74.99     8.20    19.87    10.53    22.18    62.97    31.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       17   30   +8       4.51    77.52     4.72    73.34     8.24    13.29     7.50    16.52    54.07    24.92P    0.07R    0.01  
West_Brom       17   28  +12      -2.32    34.65     0.98    78.62     8.48    28.90    22.98    39.38    77.60    51.50P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           17   28   +5       0.50    53.30    -1.19    73.14     8.12    13.15     6.69    15.30    52.91    25.02P    0.08R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   17   27   +7       3.97    75.36     7.28    65.77     8.15     5.50     1.13     3.14    20.61     6.39P    0.88R    0.07  
Swansea         17   26   +6      -1.60    39.11    -0.34    72.02     8.34    15.19     6.13    13.82    48.59    24.05P    0.09R    0.01  
Blackburn       17   26   -1       2.88    68.95    -0.75    64.22     8.30    -3.14     0.83     2.30    15.51     5.02P    1.69R    0.15  
QPR             17   26   -4       5.18    81.31    -0.12    60.59     7.97   -11.99     0.24     0.74     6.73     1.70P    4.21R    0.45  
Aston_Villa     17   24   +4      -3.47    27.89    -2.24    69.34     8.15    12.32     3.10     7.83    36.12    15.45P    0.27R    0.01  
Birmingham      17   24   +3       3.87    75.60     7.62    57.37     7.80    -6.19     0.06     0.22     3.26     0.66P    7.65R    0.89  
Bristol_City    17   22   +1      -1.69    39.09     0.57    62.01     8.11     1.34     0.41     1.20    10.60     3.26P    2.68R    0.29  
Stoke           17   22   -1      -3.20    29.79    -3.78    66.69     8.37     6.46     1.52     4.37    24.71     9.82P    0.91R    0.07  
Brentford       17   21   +4      -4.71    21.58     0.41    63.91     8.27     8.65     0.81     2.37    16.29     5.91P    1.59R    0.14  
Wigan           17   20   -7      -2.19    36.20    -5.43    60.87     8.43    -5.28     0.28     0.93     8.43     2.65P    4.62R    0.66  
Sheff_Wed       17   20   -9      -1.25    42.49    -5.78    58.11     8.05   -11.77     0.07     0.31     3.99     1.05P    7.81R    1.14  
Preston         17   18   -4      -5.07    19.46    -3.52    58.23     8.22    -3.45     0.10     0.36     4.70     1.25P    7.02R    1.07  
Rotherham       17   18   -9       0.89    57.76     0.58    47.50     7.93   -25.01     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.02P   46.75R   14.44  
Reading         17   16   -5      -4.27    23.42     0.32    48.81     7.94   -16.29     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.06P   38.12R   10.34  
Millwall        17   16   -7      -4.73    21.33    -3.03    53.96     8.04    -9.85     0.01     0.06     1.36     0.32P   16.73R    3.30  
Hull            17   16   -8      -5.58    17.15    -5.24    53.27     8.07   -12.32     0.01     0.06     1.20     0.28P   19.48R    3.75  
Bolton          17   16  -12      -0.17    50.26    -1.55    42.74     7.27   -31.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   71.55R   32.82  
Ipswich         17   11  -14      -8.24     6.77    -7.95    43.08     7.73   -25.71     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   67.73R   30.41  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Gillingham 0 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           17   38  +14      10.97    96.77     8.53    81.88     8.32    20.01    10.68    30.02    86.22    43.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland           16   35  +19       4.30    76.56     5.59    91.97     8.52    43.17    56.60    78.30    98.53    85.41P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         17   33  +11       6.31    84.77     6.01    81.03     8.44    23.52     8.89    27.04    84.13    41.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             16   31  +15       1.62    60.08     3.81    84.54     8.78    33.57    19.83    45.90    91.27    61.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton                17   29   +8       3.67    72.19     5.10    73.85     8.71    15.47     1.96     7.87    56.09    19.89P    0.20R    0.00  
Charlton             17   28   +6       2.16    63.99     2.33    72.54     8.27    12.98     1.16     5.37    49.65    16.44P    0.18R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   17   28   +2       6.02    84.01     3.86    64.75     8.42    -2.49     0.16     0.89    16.40     3.72P    2.90R    0.14  
Coventry             17   28   +2       6.29    85.35     4.07    64.16     8.33    -2.85     0.09     0.66    14.84     3.27P    3.02R    0.08  
Blackpool            16   25   +3       2.01    63.66     1.34    65.31     8.36     2.00     0.17     0.93    19.02     4.79P    2.24R    0.08  
Doncaster            17   25   +1       1.92    62.90     1.43    64.66     8.30     0.65     0.14     0.72    16.42     3.98P    2.83R    0.12  
Walsall              17   25   -5       3.80    74.42    -1.86    59.54     8.05   -12.85     0.02     0.15     5.44     0.97P    9.31R    0.52  
Fleetwood_Town       17   23   +5      -1.14    42.96     3.85    65.34     8.29     8.76     0.14     0.94    19.69     5.45P    2.21R    0.08  
Southend             17   23   -1       0.11    51.13    -0.26    63.05     8.31    -0.65     0.07     0.47    12.49     3.03P    4.17R    0.22  
Burton_Albion        16   21   +0      -1.78    38.52    -1.20    61.64     8.76    -0.74     0.07     0.42    11.21     2.93P    6.62R    0.38  
Wycombe              17   21   -1       0.89    56.98     3.94    54.23     8.26   -11.51     0.00     0.03     1.76     0.32P   25.34R    2.70  
Rochdale             17   20   -9      -0.49    47.41    -4.40    56.75     8.30   -13.95     0.01     0.06     2.99     0.58P   17.16R    1.63  
Gillingham           17   18   -3      -3.63    27.64    -0.14    55.03     8.36    -7.71     0.00     0.03     2.25     0.49P   21.90R    2.16  
Shrewsbury           17   18   -4      -4.96    20.05    -3.74    58.27     8.13    -2.96     0.01     0.08     4.34     1.04P   11.41R    0.74  
Scunthorpe           17   18  -11      -5.18    19.74   -10.37    58.11     8.44   -11.07     0.01     0.10     4.45     1.02P   13.47R    1.12  
Bristol_Rovers       17   17   +0      -5.61    17.06     0.90    54.24     8.10    -3.54     0.00     0.01     1.59     0.33P   23.17R    2.17  
Oxford_Utd           17   15   -7      -6.41    14.03    -3.88    52.38     8.39   -10.92     0.00     0.02     1.03     0.25P   32.26R    4.50  
Plymouth             17   13  -11      -6.67    12.50    -5.32    47.06     8.06   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   58.27R   13.50  
AFC_Wimbledon        17   11  -15      -6.77    10.78    -7.25    41.26     7.69   -28.51     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   83.36R   36.62  
Bradford             17   10  -19      -8.81     5.48   -12.32    42.16     7.97   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.02P   79.95R   33.23  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Mansfield 2 1 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     17   36  +17       7.50    89.91     9.24    83.67     8.11    28.90    25.14    65.29    92.83    72.56P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          17   34  +14       3.95    74.42     4.17    87.10     8.16    33.50    43.68    79.04    96.76    84.73P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       17   31  +15       2.90    68.27     7.92    78.57     8.14    26.77    10.80    40.66    81.41    51.74P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         17   30   +9       6.21    84.87     8.06    70.61     8.42    10.43     1.82    11.34    44.81    18.11P    0.05R    0.00  
Exeter           17   29   +9       1.53    60.13     2.75    75.59     8.17    19.28     5.30    26.74    69.35    38.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County   17   29   -4       7.17    88.92    -1.59    64.18     8.16   -11.07     0.30     2.56    17.25     4.78P    0.34R    0.02  
Mansfield        17   28  +12       0.26    51.38     5.48    75.83     8.13    24.00     5.95    28.16    71.61    40.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        17   28   +5       2.69    67.66     1.97    67.22     8.11     4.52     0.67     5.14    29.13    10.11P    0.06R    0.00  
Forest_Green     17   27   +9       4.41    77.03    10.19    65.41     8.21     7.05     0.39     3.62    23.17     7.10P    0.15R    0.01  
Bury             17   26  +10      -2.45    34.08     2.22    74.22     8.48    22.84     4.62    23.31    64.09    35.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle         17   23   -3      -1.11    42.95    -4.16    62.40     8.22    -3.33     0.12     1.48    13.37     4.03P    0.50R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     17   23   -5       2.58    67.74    -0.40    59.40     8.11   -10.46     0.06     0.64     6.89     1.68P    1.36R    0.08  
Port_Vale        17   22   -4       0.74    55.71    -1.32    59.98     8.01    -6.30     0.04     0.67     7.57     1.98P    1.04R    0.09  
Yeovil           16   21   +5       0.26    52.51     6.74    62.22     8.35     5.20     0.18     1.67    14.01     4.11P    0.58R    0.04  
Oldham           17   21   +3      -6.15    15.38    -2.79    66.11     8.38    10.96     0.51     4.79    26.97    11.51P    0.16R    0.01  
Northampton      17   21   -1      -3.70    27.30    -3.13    63.43     8.48     3.10     0.19     2.41    17.23     5.99P    0.51R    0.03  
Swindon          17   21   -3      -2.72    32.67    -3.71    63.92     8.22     1.74     0.22     2.18    17.77     5.75P    0.39R    0.03  
Crewe            17   19   -3      -2.53    33.75    -0.45    55.91     8.09    -7.10     0.00     0.20     3.16     0.80P    3.19R    0.26  
Cambridge_Utd    17   18  -11      -3.07    30.35    -7.86    53.39     7.95   -17.20     0.01     0.07     1.32     0.32P    6.39R    0.60  
Morecambe        17   17  -12      -1.52    40.66    -5.10    47.77     7.69   -25.23     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.04P   20.03R    2.77  
Grimsby          17   15  -12      -2.65    32.44    -4.18    46.29     7.67   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   25.91R    3.70  
Notts_County     17   14  -16      -6.62    12.88   -11.55    50.99     8.21   -20.50     0.00     0.04     0.84     0.20P   12.07R    1.51  
Cheltenham       16   11  -13      -6.80    10.22    -6.72    45.22     8.11   -23.51     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   31.96R    5.32  
Macclesfield     17    7  -21      -6.75     9.01    -5.77    29.09     7.11   -49.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.29R   85.51  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 November 2018, AFC_Fylde 1 3 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            19   41  +16      10.60    96.02     9.69    83.38     7.54    23.98    16.85    79.42    32.67P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      19   40  +25       6.00    83.23    13.20    88.00     7.63    41.47    40.75    92.45    57.24P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       19   39  +20       8.50    90.07    13.30    81.81     8.26    28.91    14.89    72.36    28.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     19   37  +16       8.35    89.23    12.06    79.33     8.37    24.17     9.02    60.92    20.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     19   36   +8      10.29    95.11     8.32    72.08     7.67     7.11     1.12    24.09     4.90P    0.04R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          19   35  +20       2.05    62.47     9.56    81.54     7.72    34.14    12.74    73.65    31.52P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      18   33   +5       6.85    86.63     2.72    74.98     8.02    10.61     2.76    37.71    10.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead          19   32   +8       3.14    69.14     3.67    72.66     7.71    13.56     1.29    27.80     7.37P    0.04R    0.00  
Hartlepool         19   28   -2       2.45    65.74    -1.52    63.36     7.68    -3.92     0.08     3.98     0.82P    1.66R    0.03  
Eastleigh          19   28   -4       4.39    76.27    -0.69    62.72     7.63    -7.09     0.02     3.05     0.50P    2.20R    0.05  
Boreham_Wood       19   27   +0      -0.21    48.82    -2.04    64.85     7.60     1.74     0.08     5.50     1.28P    0.93R    0.01  
Barnet             18   25   -4      -3.30    29.60    -9.53    67.82     8.20     2.64     0.36    12.44     3.70P    0.56R    0.02  
Aldershot          19   24   -8      -1.87    38.78    -8.09    60.11     7.66    -8.92     0.01     1.47     0.27P    4.46R    0.20  
Bromley            19   23   -2      -4.07    26.47    -3.56    59.49     7.84    -3.10     0.01     1.54     0.33P    5.31R    0.23  
Ebbsfleet_United   19   23   -2      -2.33    36.01    -1.30    60.74     7.70    -0.59     0.01     1.92     0.42P    3.56R    0.12  
Halifax            19   22   -2      -0.64    46.60     2.32    54.14     7.47    -8.24     0.00     0.22     0.04P   15.75R    0.95  
Barrow             19   21   -4      -3.11    31.49    -1.27    54.48     7.67    -8.86     0.00     0.32     0.07P   15.08R    0.98  
Maidstone_United   19   18  -10      -2.57    34.42    -2.29    48.32     7.38   -19.32     0.00     0.02     0.01P   42.72R    5.66  
Chesterfield       19   17   -6     -10.81     4.15    -8.88    57.95     7.97    -0.00     0.01     1.07     0.33P    7.65R    0.43  
Havant_&_Wville    19   17   -8      -3.16    31.69     1.85    46.10     7.97   -21.03     0.00     0.02     0.00P   54.37R   11.07  
Maidenhead         19   17  -21      -2.35    36.03   -10.16    44.53     7.38   -36.88     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.33R   14.59  
Dag_&_Red          19   15  -10     -10.47     4.22    -9.43    50.52     7.67   -12.13     0.00     0.04     0.01P   30.39R    3.35  
Braintree_Town     19   13  -15      -4.68    22.05    -2.05    37.77     7.46   -33.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.46R   48.59  
Dover_Athletic     19   11  -20     -12.37     1.74   -15.88    44.79     7.71   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00P   61.46R   13.72