Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 16 November 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 November 2018, Arsenal 1 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         12   32  +31       3.31    80.98     7.02    94.66     6.08    81.33    84.06    95.86    98.97    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   30  +18       6.05    92.30     5.06    83.54     7.03    46.68     9.51    52.16    77.28    91.17    99.65     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   28  +19       3.31    76.24     6.02    78.57     7.04    43.20     3.17    22.88    50.26    76.25    98.78     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        12   27  +10       3.52    77.73    -1.31    78.60     7.06    35.15     2.75    21.69    48.84    74.36    98.59     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          12   24  +11       1.74    63.72     1.47    72.06     7.39    31.36     0.45     5.59    17.59    38.19    92.25     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      12   20   +5       3.36    75.56     5.06    51.36     7.30    -4.62     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.24     5.36     0.33R    0.01  
Watford          12   20   +3       4.75    84.39     5.17    48.97     7.12    -9.86     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.07     2.65     0.72R    0.02  
Man_Utd          12   20   -1      -0.56    44.78    -6.85    68.29     7.28    18.67     0.07     1.80     6.80    19.01    83.12     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   19   +4       1.23    60.10     2.37    54.13     7.47     1.75     0.00     0.02     0.17     0.62    10.26     0.13R    0.00  
Leicester        12   17   +1      -0.02    50.27     0.61    51.36     7.39    -2.97     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.20     5.48     0.41R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    12   16   -1       2.62    72.16     4.06    47.66     7.45    -8.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.21     1.77R    0.18  
Brighton         12   14   -5       1.37    63.18     1.48    43.06     7.07   -15.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.43     5.29R    0.40  
West_Ham         12   12   -4      -1.35    39.62     1.69    44.60     7.39   -11.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.81     4.27R    0.39  
Newcastle        12    9   -6      -4.70    15.03    -1.48    41.19     7.18   -11.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     8.50R    0.99  
Burnley          12    9  -13      -4.40    16.55    -7.79    36.46     6.92   -26.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    24.32R    3.63  
Crystal_Palace   12    8   -9      -5.38    11.65    -4.04    37.30     7.10   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    20.72R    3.00  
Southampton      12    8  -13      -4.72    14.28    -6.49    36.84     7.03   -24.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    23.27R    3.96  
Cardiff          12    8  -14      -2.54    28.56    -2.67    31.66     7.03   -34.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.77R   14.00  
Huddersfield     12    7  -16      -2.22    30.29    -3.50    26.96     6.23   -41.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.34R   34.58  
Fulham           12    5  -20      -5.08    11.34    -5.88    26.83     6.96   -46.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.16R   38.82  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 November 2018, Birmingham 3 3 Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         17   33   +8       8.31    91.38     6.00    76.30     8.16    13.28    12.67    25.45    67.10    33.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   17   31  +11       2.26    65.04     3.21    79.86     7.93    24.12    24.47    42.87    82.62    55.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    17   30  +12       4.67    78.54     8.97    75.20     8.33    20.17    11.44    23.30    63.75    32.27P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       17   30   +8       4.70    78.29     4.99    72.95     8.27    12.68     7.03    15.40    51.84    23.21P    0.08R    0.00  
West_Brom       17   28  +12      -2.35    34.26     0.91    78.75     8.42    29.11    22.96    39.96    78.29    52.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           17   28   +5       0.40    52.36    -1.36    73.29     8.17    13.38     7.07    15.97    53.86    25.97P    0.08R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   17   27   +7       3.87    74.68     7.18    65.78     8.12     5.50     1.13     3.14    20.74     6.51P    0.84R    0.06  
Swansea         17   26   +6      -1.67    38.69    -0.42    72.07     8.34    15.29     6.03    13.72    48.86    24.07P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackburn       17   26   -1       2.92    69.02    -0.65    64.13     8.35    -3.30     0.80     2.24    15.44     4.81P    1.74R    0.13  
QPR             17   26   -4       5.20    81.51    -0.09    60.60     7.93   -12.02     0.19     0.69     6.87     1.61P    4.16R    0.45  
Aston_Villa     17   24   +4      -3.39    28.30    -2.16    69.21     8.15    12.16     2.99     7.57    35.51    15.01P    0.29R    0.01  
Birmingham      17   24   +3       3.89    75.74     7.68    57.30     7.88    -6.29     0.05     0.22     3.31     0.74P    8.04R    1.03  
Bristol_City    17   22   +1      -1.84    38.29     0.29    62.28     8.20     1.75     0.41     1.39    11.47     3.68P    2.70R    0.27  
Stoke           17   22   -1      -3.07    30.77    -3.61    66.40     8.41     6.08     1.47     4.00    23.72     9.32P    0.97R    0.09  
Brentford       17   21   +4      -4.61    22.10     0.57    63.82     8.31     8.47     0.83     2.40    16.21     5.83P    1.80R    0.18  
Wigan           17   20   -7      -2.14    36.28    -5.38    60.86     8.31    -5.29     0.23     0.78     8.31     2.56P    4.55R    0.63  
Sheff_Wed       17   20   -9      -1.26    42.48    -5.82    58.24     8.11   -11.56     0.10     0.33     4.33     1.16P    7.67R    1.18  
Preston         17   18   -4      -4.99    19.71    -3.40    58.18     8.22    -3.55     0.10     0.39     4.62     1.37P    7.33R    1.02  
Rotherham       17   18   -9       0.99    58.51     0.75    47.42     7.88   -25.22     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.03P   47.14R   14.68  
Reading         17   16   -5      -4.28    23.29     0.31    48.86     7.97   -16.22     0.00     0.02     0.33     0.08P   37.84R   10.50  
Millwall        17   16   -7      -4.78    21.07    -3.16    54.04     8.09    -9.69     0.03     0.09     1.42     0.37P   16.76R    3.19  
Hull            17   16   -8      -5.59    17.56    -5.20    53.23     8.05   -12.32     0.01     0.05     1.18     0.27P   19.56R    3.88  
Bolton          17   16  -12      -0.26    49.63    -1.68    42.80     7.34   -31.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   71.16R   32.78  
Ipswich         17   11  -14      -8.24     6.82    -7.95    43.23     7.86   -25.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   67.15R   29.92  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Gillingham 0 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           17   38  +14      10.94    96.81     8.53    81.86     8.27    19.93    10.68    29.65    86.08    42.58P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           16   35  +19       4.25    76.27     5.50    92.02     8.56    43.29    56.68    78.28    98.47    85.69P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         17   33  +11       6.28    84.70     5.94    81.14     8.41    23.67     9.12    27.54    84.68    42.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnsley             16   31  +15       1.63    60.06     3.83    84.51     8.73    33.57    19.35    45.38    91.25    61.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton                17   29   +8       3.64    72.38     5.07    73.99     8.70    15.63     2.11     8.31    56.78    20.14P    0.21R    0.00  
Charlton             17   28   +6       2.10    63.73     2.24    72.55     8.30    12.97     1.18     5.43    49.61    16.35P    0.23R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   17   28   +2       6.18    84.62     4.05    64.45     8.41    -2.89     0.14     0.79    15.59     3.52P    3.22R    0.11  
Coventry             17   28   +2       6.32    85.68     4.10    64.12     8.21    -2.92     0.09     0.60    14.64     3.11P    2.96R    0.07  
Blackpool            16   25   +3       1.93    63.24     1.25    65.31     8.36     2.03     0.16     0.88    18.62     4.53P    2.26R    0.07  
Doncaster            17   25   +1       2.00    63.47     1.50    64.67     8.31     0.68     0.12     0.79    16.49     4.01P    2.75R    0.10  
Walsall              17   25   -5       3.73    73.81    -1.98    59.67     8.09   -12.72     0.01     0.15     5.57     1.04P    9.12R    0.55  
Fleetwood_Town       17   23   +5      -1.20    42.55     3.74    65.33     8.36     8.80     0.18     0.93    19.99     5.45P    2.24R    0.05  
Southend             17   23   -1       0.15    51.59    -0.19    63.09     8.32    -0.64     0.08     0.49    12.61     2.93P    4.14R    0.20  
Burton_Albion        16   21   +0      -1.80    38.56    -1.20    61.60     8.76    -0.83     0.07     0.47    10.98     2.91P    6.65R    0.40  
Wycombe              17   21   -1       0.86    56.69     3.90    54.28     8.31   -11.37     0.01     0.04     1.81     0.35P   25.09R    2.79  
Rochdale             17   20   -9      -0.39    48.09    -4.25    56.55     8.20   -14.24     0.01     0.05     2.73     0.54P   17.61R    1.69  
Gillingham           17   18   -3      -3.63    27.56    -0.16    55.10     8.33    -7.61     0.00     0.04     2.24     0.44P   21.74R    2.08  
Shrewsbury           17   18   -4      -4.96    19.61    -3.72    58.33     8.10    -2.85     0.00     0.08     4.38     1.08P   11.36R    0.79  
Scunthorpe           17   18  -11      -5.25    19.79   -10.44    58.17     8.50   -11.00     0.01     0.09     4.66     1.11P   13.62R    1.20  
Bristol_Rovers       17   17   +0      -5.64    17.18     0.87    54.20     8.18    -3.64     0.00     0.02     1.70     0.39P   23.35R    2.41  
Oxford_Utd           17   15   -7      -6.32    14.20    -3.71    52.27     8.25   -11.11     0.00     0.01     0.93     0.19P   32.55R    4.47  
Plymouth             17   13  -11      -6.72    12.15    -5.44    47.24     8.09   -19.45     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   57.65R   12.88  
AFC_Wimbledon        17   11  -15      -6.82    10.55    -7.28    41.32     7.69   -28.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   83.07R   36.34  
Bradford             17   10  -19      -8.69     5.73   -12.15    42.01     7.97   -30.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   80.19R   33.80  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Mansfield 2 1 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     17   36  +17       7.57    90.06     9.29    83.66     8.18    28.85    24.82    65.08    92.70    72.17P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          17   34  +14       3.76    73.33     3.96    87.36     8.13    33.89    44.86    79.83    97.04    85.46P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       17   31  +15       2.89    68.43     7.90    78.46     8.16    26.67    10.45    40.21    80.80    51.20P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         17   30   +9       6.11    84.39     7.92    70.74     8.44    10.65     1.76    11.58    45.76    18.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter           17   29   +9       1.55    59.72     2.80    75.46     8.14    19.11     4.98    25.62    68.92    37.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   17   29   -4       7.15    88.66    -1.65    64.15     8.09   -11.06     0.22     2.41    17.09     4.67P    0.28R    0.01  
Mansfield        17   28  +12       0.19    51.08     5.40    76.03     8.07    24.31     5.95    28.97    72.29    41.76P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        17   28   +5       2.58    66.75     1.83    67.32     8.12     4.64     0.75     5.38    29.49    10.32P    0.08R    0.00  
Forest_Green     17   27   +9       4.43    77.38    10.21    65.43     8.14     7.09     0.33     3.55    23.14     7.04P    0.16R    0.01  
Bury             17   26  +10      -2.42    34.41     2.25    74.28     8.50    22.84     4.57    23.38    64.31    35.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle         17   23   -3      -1.07    43.05    -4.12    62.36     8.21    -3.41     0.11     1.54    13.12     3.96P    0.52R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     17   23   -5       2.59    67.69    -0.37    59.37     8.09   -10.49     0.03     0.60     6.75     1.64P    1.41R    0.13  
Port_Vale        17   22   -4       0.82    56.46    -1.22    59.87     7.94    -6.40     0.03     0.57     7.22     1.81P    1.07R    0.07  
Yeovil           16   21   +5       0.31    52.79     6.82    62.19     8.31     5.14     0.14     1.64    13.80     4.13P    0.59R    0.04  
Oldham           17   21   +3      -6.22    14.92    -2.90    66.15     8.39    10.99     0.53     4.83    27.15    11.37P    0.15R    0.01  
Northampton      17   21   -1      -3.59    27.76    -2.97    63.28     8.48     2.86     0.22     2.29    17.00     5.92P    0.48R    0.02  
Swindon          17   21   -3      -2.74    32.58    -3.72    63.98     8.20     1.85     0.23     2.24    17.65     5.97P    0.32R    0.01  
Crewe            17   19   -3      -2.49    34.15    -0.34    55.76     8.07    -7.27     0.01     0.17     3.13     0.77P    3.39R    0.29  
Cambridge_Utd    17   18  -11      -3.09    30.05    -7.89    53.48     7.98   -17.06     0.00     0.07     1.50     0.34P    6.21R    0.68  
Morecambe        17   17  -12      -1.46    41.14    -4.99    47.73     7.75   -25.39     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.02P   20.45R    2.62  
Grimsby          17   15  -12      -2.65    32.64    -4.21    46.28     7.59   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   25.38R    3.50  
Notts_County     17   14  -16      -6.63    12.87   -11.59    50.92     8.14   -20.62     0.00     0.02     0.68     0.15P   12.28R    1.43  
Cheltenham       16   11  -13      -6.74    10.57    -6.64    45.18     8.14   -23.57     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   31.87R    5.26  
Macclesfield     17    7  -21      -6.73     9.11    -5.80    29.06     7.10   -49.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.32R   85.89  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 November 2018, AFC_Fylde 1 3 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            19   41  +16      10.57    95.74     9.66    83.27     7.55    23.84    16.38    78.98    32.32P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      19   40  +25       5.91    82.75    13.08    88.13     7.65    41.70    41.67    92.64    58.00P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       19   39  +20       8.48    89.95    13.25    81.99     8.21    29.17    15.00    72.99    28.90P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     19   37  +16       8.41    89.64    12.11    79.17     8.31    23.89     8.55    60.11    19.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     19   36   +8      10.30    94.88     8.30    72.21     7.67     7.27     1.22    24.43     5.10P    0.04R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          19   35  +20       2.10    62.85     9.69    81.48     7.68    34.04    12.49    73.18    31.15P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      18   33   +5       6.80    86.48     2.70    75.10     8.00    10.79     2.71    38.52    10.22P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead          19   32   +8       3.16    69.36     3.75    72.60     7.74    13.48     1.36    27.51     7.28P    0.03R    0.00  
Hartlepool         19   28   -2       2.38    65.17    -1.61    63.44     7.66    -3.83     0.06     4.15     0.88P    1.57R    0.04  
Eastleigh          19   28   -4       4.30    75.90    -0.79    62.83     7.61    -6.89     0.02     3.11     0.55P    2.02R    0.05  
Boreham_Wood       19   27   +0      -0.09    49.81    -1.90    64.80     7.66     1.65     0.09     5.52     1.22P    0.98R    0.02  
Barnet             18   25   -4      -3.33    29.31    -9.50    67.80     8.15     2.63     0.38    12.16     3.54P    0.59R    0.01  
Aldershot          19   24   -8      -1.94    38.24    -8.16    60.08     7.62    -9.00     0.02     1.57     0.36P    4.21R    0.15  
Bromley            19   23   -2      -3.96    27.11    -3.40    59.34     7.88    -3.33     0.01     1.61     0.34P    5.46R    0.20  
Ebbsfleet_United   19   23   -2      -2.40    35.54    -1.42    60.81     7.67    -0.48     0.01     2.02     0.41P    3.44R    0.11  
Halifax            19   22   -2      -0.64    46.74     2.32    54.09     7.39    -8.28     0.00     0.19     0.04P   15.45R    0.97  
Barrow             19   21   -4      -3.10    31.35    -1.28    54.56     7.65    -8.74     0.00     0.29     0.06P   14.69R    0.98  
Maidstone_United   19   18  -10      -2.49    34.85    -2.20    48.20     7.36   -19.45     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.17R    6.03  
Chesterfield       19   17   -6     -10.73     4.17    -8.78    57.79     7.97    -0.24     0.00     0.93     0.24P    7.94R    0.43  
Havant_&_Wville    19   17   -8      -3.17    31.98     1.77    46.13     7.96   -21.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    54.43R   10.83  
Maidenhead         19   17  -21      -2.36    35.89   -10.12    44.54     7.37   -36.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.30R   15.00  
Dag_&_Red          19   15  -10     -10.50     4.17    -9.45    50.50     7.69   -12.15     0.00     0.05     0.01P   30.56R    3.30  
Braintree_Town     19   13  -15      -4.70    22.19    -2.16    37.91     7.41   -33.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.20R   47.81  
Dover_Athletic     19   11  -20     -12.35     1.76   -15.86    44.67     7.67   -24.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.87R   14.08