Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 15 November 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 November 2018, Arsenal 1 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         12   32  +31       3.34    81.36     7.02    94.64     6.08    81.38    84.24    95.93    98.98    99.80   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   30  +18       6.08    92.41     5.17    83.34     7.09    46.35     9.30    51.56    76.51    90.65    99.63     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   28  +19       3.30    76.05     6.05    78.50     7.05    43.06     3.16    22.99    50.62    76.33    98.79     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        12   27  +10       3.53    78.19    -1.23    78.49     7.05    34.98     2.80    21.85    48.66    74.19    98.48     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          12   24  +11       1.84    64.31     1.65    71.90     7.35    31.09     0.40     5.65    17.60    38.03    92.22     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      12   20   +5       3.30    75.00     4.96    51.44     7.30    -4.49     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.19     5.37     0.34R    0.01  
Watford          12   20   +3       4.69    84.01     5.04    49.11     7.12    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     2.82     0.74R    0.01  
Man_Utd          12   20   -1      -0.57    44.86    -6.92    68.38     7.27    18.78     0.10     1.99     7.42    19.88    83.58     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   19   +4       1.30    60.87     2.44    54.04     7.44     1.68     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.57     9.91     0.15R    0.01  
Leicester        12   17   +1       0.04    50.45     0.68    51.26     7.40    -3.13     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.23     5.36     0.48R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    12   16   -1       2.61    72.13     4.01    47.74     7.43    -7.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     2.17     1.58R    0.11  
Brighton         12   14   -5       1.34    63.13     1.41    43.12     7.06   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     5.21R    0.39  
West_Ham         12   12   -4      -1.34    39.87     1.71    44.53     7.37   -11.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.81     4.15R    0.29  
Newcastle        12    9   -6      -4.74    14.71    -1.54    41.25     7.12   -11.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     8.28R    0.96  
Burnley          12    9  -13      -4.38    16.46    -7.72    36.51     7.03   -26.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    24.68R    3.80  
Crystal_Palace   12    8   -9      -5.38    11.64    -4.13    37.29     7.03   -20.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    20.51R    2.98  
Southampton      12    8  -13      -4.64    14.54    -6.38    36.74     7.02   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    23.69R    3.97  
Cardiff          12    8  -14      -2.59    28.30    -2.74    31.79     7.05   -34.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    52.61R   13.73  
Huddersfield     12    7  -16      -2.26    30.08    -3.57    26.87     6.25   -41.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.82R   35.57  
Fulham           12    5  -20      -5.09    11.03    -5.90    26.94     6.95   -46.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.75R   38.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 November 2018, Birmingham 3 3 Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         17   33   +8       8.24    91.38     5.91    76.42     8.13    13.47    12.84    26.04    67.74    34.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   17   31  +11       2.22    64.61     3.16    79.91     7.95    24.23    24.62    43.33    82.54    55.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    17   30  +12       4.78    79.25     9.14    75.09     8.26    20.01    10.94    22.76    63.29    31.97P    0.05R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd       17   30   +8       4.58    77.91     4.80    73.24     8.18    13.12     7.27    15.94    53.37    23.87P    0.06R    0.01  
West_Brom       17   28  +12      -2.38    34.12     0.89    78.73     8.50    29.10    22.98    39.70    78.01    52.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           17   28   +5       0.46    52.87    -1.27    73.14     8.10    13.24     6.68    15.41    53.01    25.20P    0.08R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   17   27   +7       4.04    75.76     7.43    65.59     8.03     5.20     1.00     2.81    19.90     6.04P    0.91R    0.09  
Swansea         17   26   +6      -1.58    39.46    -0.33    71.98     8.32    15.15     5.92    13.22    48.47    23.69P    0.12R    0.00  
Blackburn       17   26   -1       2.82    68.69    -0.77    64.33     8.33    -3.00     0.86     2.41    15.92     5.12P    1.66R    0.13  
QPR             17   26   -4       5.10    81.01    -0.26    60.70     7.91   -11.88     0.21     0.73     6.86     1.64P    3.90R    0.38  
Aston_Villa     17   24   +4      -3.39    28.32    -2.15    69.25     8.21    12.24     3.24     7.84    35.52    15.61P    0.27R    0.01  
Birmingham      17   24   +3       3.85    75.55     7.65    57.35     7.85    -6.31     0.05     0.21     3.36     0.73P    7.67R    0.88  
Bristol_City    17   22   +1      -1.83    38.33     0.31    62.15     8.17     1.52     0.48     1.33    11.17     3.46P    2.68R    0.27  
Stoke           17   22   -1      -3.17    30.16    -3.76    66.60     8.45     6.37     1.60     4.23    24.23     9.44P    0.93R    0.07  
Brentford       17   21   +4      -4.72    21.38     0.41    63.91     8.27     8.64     0.82     2.35    16.33     5.77P    1.69R    0.18  
Wigan           17   20   -7      -2.14    36.52    -5.40    60.91     8.40    -5.22     0.26     0.88     8.37     2.59P    4.46R    0.60  
Sheff_Wed       17   20   -9      -1.23    42.41    -5.70    58.14     8.06   -11.76     0.10     0.30     4.12     1.01P    7.71R    1.11  
Preston         17   18   -4      -4.81    20.74    -3.15    57.92     8.25    -3.91     0.10     0.33     4.39     1.22P    7.79R    1.08  
Rotherham       17   18   -9       0.95    58.05     0.64    47.49     7.94   -25.09     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.03P   46.98R   14.45  
Reading         17   16   -5      -4.25    23.52     0.39    48.81     8.03   -16.39     0.00     0.02     0.38     0.07P   38.35R   10.52  
Millwall        17   16   -7      -4.87    20.61    -3.25    54.18     8.06    -9.53     0.02     0.07     1.51     0.34P   16.16R    3.05  
Hull            17   16   -8      -5.56    17.52    -5.20    53.21     8.11   -12.37     0.01     0.06     1.27     0.28P   19.53R    3.95  
Bolton          17   16  -12      -0.18    50.42    -1.54    42.72     7.32   -31.17     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    71.57R   33.21  
Ipswich         17   11  -14      -8.21     6.94    -7.94    43.13     7.79   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   67.39R   29.99  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Gillingham 0 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           17   38  +14      10.85    96.61     8.38    81.91     8.31    20.01    10.76    29.90    86.22    42.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland           16   35  +19       4.23    75.95     5.46    92.06     8.56    43.36    57.51    78.69    98.55    85.65P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         17   33  +11       6.29    84.58     5.99    80.98     8.49    23.48     9.01    27.29    84.02    42.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             16   31  +15       1.74    60.92     3.98    84.36     8.67    33.25    18.62    44.91    91.18    60.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton                17   29   +8       3.64    72.23     5.06    73.91     8.67    15.59     1.98     7.97    56.68    19.69P    0.19R    0.00  
Charlton             17   28   +6       2.07    63.52     2.23    72.59     8.25    13.07     1.19     5.54    49.80    16.71P    0.21R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   17   28   +2       6.23    84.83     4.11    64.42     8.39    -2.94     0.16     0.79    15.44     3.38P    3.15R    0.08  
Coventry             17   28   +2       6.24    85.21     3.97    64.22     8.28    -2.72     0.10     0.67    15.22     3.35P    3.05R    0.09  
Blackpool            16   25   +3       1.89    63.24     1.21    65.35     8.42     2.08     0.19     1.03    19.16     4.97P    2.18R    0.08  
Doncaster            17   25   +1       2.01    63.42     1.48    64.63     8.34     0.64     0.11     0.81    16.51     4.05P    2.92R    0.12  
Walsall              17   25   -5       3.66    73.53    -2.09    59.77     8.09   -12.54     0.03     0.19     5.74     1.15P    8.95R    0.54  
Fleetwood_Town       17   23   +5      -1.10    43.10     3.94    65.11     8.35     8.44     0.13     0.99    19.05     5.48P    2.36R    0.08  
Southend             17   23   -1       0.07    51.20    -0.35    63.24     8.32    -0.40     0.10     0.50    13.10     3.21P    3.99R    0.15  
Burton_Albion        16   21   +0      -1.74    39.03    -1.11    61.48     8.75    -0.99     0.06     0.42    10.69     2.79P    6.87R    0.40  
Wycombe              17   21   -1       0.88    56.66     3.95    54.29     8.33   -11.39     0.00     0.04     1.87     0.35P   25.22R    2.87  
Rochdale             17   20   -9      -0.38    48.39    -4.24    56.58     8.16   -14.25     0.01     0.05     2.66     0.50P   17.44R    1.58  
Gillingham           17   18   -3      -3.63    27.99    -0.15    55.04     8.40    -7.64     0.01     0.02     2.37     0.46P   22.17R    2.27  
Shrewsbury           17   18   -4      -4.99    20.01    -3.79    58.41     8.14    -2.71     0.00     0.08     4.37     1.04P   11.09R    0.71  
Scunthorpe           17   18  -11      -5.16    19.84   -10.32    58.01     8.44   -11.21     0.01     0.07     4.43     1.05P   13.99R    1.25  
Bristol_Rovers       17   17   +0      -5.57    17.36     0.98    54.21     8.12    -3.60     0.00     0.02     1.62     0.36P   23.33R    2.25  
Oxford_Utd           17   15   -7      -6.36    14.00    -3.79    52.40     8.32   -10.91     0.00     0.02     1.12     0.23P   32.34R    4.59  
Plymouth             17   13  -11      -6.67    12.17    -5.34    47.25     8.09   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   57.54R   12.90  
AFC_Wimbledon        17   11  -15      -6.84    10.57    -7.32    41.39     7.69   -28.32     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   82.91R   35.99  
Bradford             17   10  -19      -8.75     5.65   -12.22    42.08     8.03   -30.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   80.09R   34.03  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Mansfield 2 1 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     17   36  +17       7.53    90.00     9.26    83.68     8.13    28.85    24.92    64.95    92.94    72.25P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          17   34  +14       3.90    74.36     4.09    87.17     8.15    33.62    43.94    79.22    96.80    84.81P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       17   31  +15       2.84    68.19     7.86    78.59     8.12    26.87    10.91    40.76    81.29    51.88P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         17   30   +9       6.04    84.38     7.82    70.83     8.38    10.75     1.79    11.47    46.08    18.37P    0.03R    0.00  
Exeter           17   29   +9       1.51    59.64     2.75    75.58     8.25    19.31     5.36    26.66    69.11    37.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   17   29   -4       7.21    88.98    -1.55    64.13     8.09   -11.15     0.31     2.44    16.98     4.64P    0.29R    0.01  
Mansfield        17   28  +12       0.16    51.04     5.39    76.01     8.09    24.25     5.88    28.89    72.19    41.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        17   28   +5       2.71    67.66     2.02    67.19     8.12     4.45     0.67     5.22    29.18    10.09P    0.07R    0.00  
Forest_Green     17   27   +9       4.38    77.15    10.12    65.43     8.15     7.04     0.38     3.61    22.95     7.04P    0.16R    0.01  
Bury             17   26  +10      -2.33    34.92     2.38    74.09     8.52    22.57     4.50    22.59    63.23    34.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle         17   23   -3      -1.08    43.06    -4.14    62.43     8.23    -3.25     0.15     1.57    13.27     4.17P    0.55R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     17   23   -5       2.59    67.68    -0.36    59.31     8.17   -10.57     0.05     0.70     6.95     1.74P    1.52R    0.11  
Port_Vale        17   22   -4       0.91    57.06    -1.11    59.85     7.97    -6.46     0.05     0.55     7.28     1.92P    1.13R    0.07  
Yeovil           16   21   +5       0.29    52.88     6.80    62.19     8.40     5.16     0.18     1.81    13.99     4.13P    0.63R    0.04  
Oldham           17   21   +3      -6.20    15.01    -2.91    66.15     8.40    11.03     0.51     4.76    27.15    11.50P    0.18R    0.01  
Northampton      17   21   -1      -3.64    27.70    -3.04    63.40     8.40     3.02     0.21     2.24    17.03     5.82P    0.41R    0.03  
Swindon          17   21   -3      -2.78    32.24    -3.78    63.98     8.21     1.82     0.19     2.30    17.83     6.01P    0.38R    0.02  
Crewe            17   19   -3      -2.45    34.45    -0.32    55.84     8.08    -7.16     0.01     0.18     3.13     0.78P    3.19R    0.28  
Cambridge_Utd    17   18  -11      -3.00    30.81    -7.73    53.26     7.98   -17.37     0.00     0.07     1.44     0.33P    6.50R    0.63  
Morecambe        17   17  -12      -1.52    40.63    -5.10    47.78     7.66   -25.20     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   19.99R    2.63  
Grimsby          17   15  -12      -2.77    31.87    -4.38    46.46     7.76   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   25.45R    3.59  
Notts_County     17   14  -16      -6.64    12.56   -11.54    50.82     8.15   -20.80     0.00     0.03     0.72     0.16P   12.48R    1.50  
Cheltenham       16   11  -13      -6.76    10.64    -6.68    45.26     8.10   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   31.72R    5.20  
Macclesfield     17    7  -21      -6.79     8.91    -5.85    29.10     7.06   -49.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.31R   85.84  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 November 2018, AFC_Fylde 1 3 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            19   41  +16      10.62    95.95     9.65    83.33     7.49    23.94    16.79    79.09    32.82P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      19   40  +25       6.11    83.92    13.33    87.90     7.61    41.35    40.76    92.33    57.05P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       19   39  +20       8.56    90.35    13.39    81.72     8.25    28.76    14.48    71.71    27.85P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     19   37  +16       8.34    89.36    12.04    79.39     8.32    24.25     9.35    61.27    20.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     19   36   +8      10.30    94.86     8.34    72.14     7.64     7.22     1.05    24.41     5.05P    0.04R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          19   35  +20       2.06    62.37     9.57    81.50     7.73    34.12    12.67    73.35    31.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      18   33   +5       6.74    86.11     2.61    75.13     8.02    10.82     2.96    38.55    10.28P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead          19   32   +8       3.17    69.42     3.72    72.59     7.71    13.51     1.32    27.62     7.32P    0.03R    0.00  
Hartlepool         19   28   -2       2.38    65.18    -1.63    63.49     7.63    -3.76     0.05     4.05     0.83P    1.49R    0.03  
Eastleigh          19   28   -4       4.38    76.22    -0.71    62.63     7.61    -7.19     0.05     2.99     0.52P    2.22R    0.06  
Boreham_Wood       19   27   +0      -0.21    48.98    -2.05    64.96     7.65     1.86     0.08     5.81     1.34P    0.93R    0.02  
Barnet             18   25   -4      -3.32    29.75    -9.49    67.82     8.19     2.67     0.38    12.35     3.77P    0.58R    0.02  
Aldershot          19   24   -8      -1.90    38.25    -8.09    60.11     7.66    -8.91     0.02     1.55     0.34P    4.47R    0.13  
Bromley            19   23   -2      -4.08    26.44    -3.58    59.44     7.95    -3.20     0.02     1.55     0.33P    5.58R    0.30  
Ebbsfleet_United   19   23   -2      -2.36    35.62    -1.34    60.72     7.63    -0.66     0.01     1.81     0.43P    3.39R    0.11  
Halifax            19   22   -2      -0.56    47.04     2.45    54.01     7.35    -8.42     0.00     0.19     0.03P   15.76R    0.88  
Barrow             19   21   -4      -3.06    31.58    -1.20    54.41     7.62    -8.95     0.00     0.27     0.06P   15.15R    1.05  
Maidstone_United   19   18  -10      -2.52    34.73    -2.28    48.29     7.36   -19.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.87R    5.80  
Chesterfield       19   17   -6     -10.89     4.13    -8.99    58.06     7.92     0.11     0.01     1.02     0.28P    7.23R    0.38  
Havant_&_Wville    19   17   -8      -3.08    32.48     1.96    46.00     7.99   -21.21     0.00     0.01     0.00    54.91R   11.30  
Maidenhead         19   17  -21      -2.34    35.94   -10.10    44.51     7.38   -36.92     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.44R   15.04  
Dag_&_Red          19   15  -10     -10.39     4.52    -9.33    50.49     7.76   -12.20     0.00     0.06     0.01P   30.93R    3.63  
Braintree_Town     19   13  -15      -4.80    21.45    -2.26    37.94     7.46   -33.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.07R   47.53  
Dover_Athletic     19   11  -20     -12.45     1.73   -16.00    44.86     7.72   -24.50     0.00     0.01     0.00P   60.89R   13.74