Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 13 November 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 November 2018, Arsenal 1 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         12   32  +31       3.31    80.96     6.94    94.64     6.04    81.36    83.99    95.96    99.03    99.80   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   30  +18       6.05    92.27     5.10    83.41     7.08    46.49     9.48    51.69    76.86    90.81    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   28  +19       3.25    75.45     5.93    78.59     7.09    43.19     3.31    23.41    50.75    76.50    98.79     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        12   27  +10       3.54    78.06    -1.28    78.54     7.10    35.09     2.76    21.58    48.77    74.34    98.47     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          12   24  +11       1.85    64.73     1.63    71.95     7.37    31.21     0.38     5.56    17.42    38.07    92.21     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      12   20   +5       3.33    75.42     5.03    51.45     7.29    -4.42     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.24     5.44     0.28R    0.01  
Watford          12   20   +3       4.65    83.68     4.99    49.15     7.14    -9.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     2.67     0.76R    0.04  
Man_Utd          12   20   -1      -0.54    44.89    -6.86    68.31     7.20    18.61     0.08     1.76     6.93    19.26    83.66     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   19   +4       1.23    60.55     2.38    54.12     7.43     1.76     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.58    10.06     0.14R    0.00  
Leicester        12   17   +1      -0.05    49.89     0.57    51.42     7.43    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.23     5.39     0.47R    0.03  
Wolverhampton    12   16   -1       2.66    72.71     4.12    47.62     7.37    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     2.03     1.58R    0.12  
Brighton         12   14   -5       1.31    62.77     1.41    43.15     7.12   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.46     5.26R    0.47  
West_Ham         12   12   -4      -1.28    40.56     1.79    44.46     7.33   -11.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.72     4.22R    0.39  
Newcastle        12    9   -6      -4.70    15.03    -1.51    41.24     7.17   -11.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.28     8.27R    0.95  
Burnley          12    9  -13      -4.40    16.70    -7.74    36.38     6.90   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    24.83R    3.56  
Crystal_Palace   12    8   -9      -5.33    11.95    -4.01    37.25     7.14   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    20.88R    3.17  
Southampton      12    8  -13      -4.67    14.61    -6.39    36.76     7.04   -24.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    23.36R    4.33  
Cardiff          12    8  -14      -2.63    28.00    -2.78    31.75     7.05   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    52.52R   13.45  
Huddersfield     12    7  -16      -2.17    30.88    -3.37    26.83     6.23   -41.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.90R   35.81  
Fulham           12    5  -20      -5.11    10.94    -5.96    26.98     6.96   -46.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.54R   37.69  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 November 2018, Birmingham 3 3 Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         17   33   +8       8.33    91.36     6.01    76.30     8.21    13.26    12.79    25.43    66.57    33.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   17   31  +11       2.28    65.30     3.24    79.82     7.95    24.06    24.08    42.33    82.29    54.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    17   30  +12       4.71    78.71     9.02    75.23     8.31    20.22    11.47    23.21    64.06    32.51P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       17   30   +8       4.61    77.80     4.86    73.10     8.24    12.90     7.18    15.91    52.63    23.91P    0.06R    0.01  
West_Brom       17   28  +12      -2.39    34.30     0.91    78.73     8.46    29.08    22.97    39.94    78.05    51.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           17   28   +5       0.42    52.66    -1.25    73.16     8.15    13.19     6.75    15.30    52.96    25.05P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   17   27   +7       3.96    75.20     7.28    65.82     8.19     5.58     1.17     3.23    20.97     6.67P    0.90R    0.06  
Swansea         17   26   +6      -1.68    39.08    -0.49    72.18     8.32    15.47     6.11    13.85    49.21    24.27P    0.09R    0.01  
Blackburn       17   26   -1       2.78    68.13    -0.83    64.42     8.35    -2.88     0.82     2.38    16.00     5.15P    1.60R    0.14  
QPR             17   26   -4       5.14    81.11    -0.22    60.66     7.86   -11.92     0.20     0.71     6.84     1.58P    3.87R    0.37  
Aston_Villa     17   24   +4      -3.38    28.43    -2.16    69.20     8.19    12.14     2.98     7.54    35.39    15.19P    0.31R    0.02  
Birmingham      17   24   +3       3.86    75.45     7.68    57.33     7.90    -6.26     0.06     0.23     3.45     0.72P    7.78R    0.91  
Bristol_City    17   22   +1      -1.74    39.23     0.45    62.04     8.13     1.38     0.33     1.12    10.40     3.12P    2.81R    0.28  
Stoke           17   22   -1      -3.31    29.41    -3.95    66.84     8.48     6.79     1.74     4.59    25.37    10.23P    0.89R    0.09  
Brentford       17   21   +4      -4.69    21.61     0.42    63.91     8.28     8.61     0.84     2.46    16.29     5.83P    1.54R    0.16  
Wigan           17   20   -7      -2.21    36.40    -5.49    60.89     8.37    -5.25     0.29     0.92     8.38     2.67P    4.51R    0.60  
Sheff_Wed       17   20   -9      -1.09    43.69    -5.52    58.04     8.07   -11.88     0.08     0.30     3.90     0.95P    7.83R    1.18  
Preston         17   18   -4      -4.83    20.75    -3.13    57.94     8.22    -3.88     0.10     0.39     4.24     1.22P    7.68R    1.09  
Rotherham       17   18   -9       0.90    57.89     0.61    47.50     7.91   -25.10     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   46.40R   14.24  
Reading         17   16   -5      -4.30    23.50     0.28    48.88     8.03   -16.23     0.01     0.02     0.31     0.08P   37.71R   10.25  
Millwall        17   16   -7      -4.78    21.23    -3.12    53.97     8.06    -9.75     0.02     0.08     1.35     0.34P   16.90R    3.25  
Hull            17   16   -8      -5.56    17.57    -5.21    53.25     8.05   -12.42     0.02     0.06     1.14     0.29P   19.14R    3.67  
Bolton          17   16  -12      -0.11    50.79    -1.45    42.64     7.27   -31.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   71.89R   33.16  
Ipswich         17   11  -14      -8.22     6.81    -7.93    43.01     7.74   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   67.99R   30.51  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Gillingham 0 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           17   38  +14      10.91    96.78     8.47    81.86     8.31    19.95    10.51    29.81    86.14    42.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland           16   35  +19       4.20    75.89     5.38    92.19     8.55    43.59    57.56    78.94    98.51    85.89P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         17   33  +11       6.43    85.08     6.16    80.81     8.50    23.17     8.79    26.41    83.38    41.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             16   31  +15       1.74    60.55     3.98    84.35     8.73    33.26    18.86    45.28    91.23    60.77P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                17   29   +8       3.55    71.67     4.95    74.08     8.65    15.79     2.17     8.46    57.24    20.58P    0.19R    0.00  
Charlton             17   28   +6       2.19    64.25     2.35    72.46     8.35    12.86     1.24     5.64    49.83    16.84P    0.24R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   17   28   +2       6.17    84.88     4.02    64.57     8.36    -2.75     0.16     0.85    16.01     3.65P    3.11R    0.12  
Coventry             17   28   +2       6.36    85.76     4.17    63.97     8.25    -3.12     0.10     0.55    14.49     2.99P    3.17R    0.10  
Blackpool            16   25   +3       1.98    63.51     1.33    65.20     8.40     1.89     0.19     0.97    18.70     4.63P    2.43R    0.10  
Doncaster            17   25   +1       2.06    64.03     1.59    64.45     8.31     0.41     0.11     0.73    16.07     3.81P    3.07R    0.10  
Walsall              17   25   -5       3.69    73.49    -2.06    59.73     8.06   -12.58     0.03     0.16     5.57     1.05P    9.06R    0.49  
Fleetwood_Town       17   23   +5      -1.17    42.92     3.84    65.31     8.34     8.73     0.15     1.01    19.82     5.37P    2.28R    0.09  
Southend             17   23   -1       0.13    51.42    -0.26    63.16     8.34    -0.48     0.07     0.47    13.00     3.14P    4.27R    0.16  
Burton_Albion        16   21   +0      -1.67    39.72    -1.05    61.54     8.68    -0.94     0.06     0.44    10.66     2.78P    6.66R    0.42  
Wycombe              17   21   -1       0.71    55.60     3.71    54.55     8.33   -11.05     0.01     0.03     2.08     0.42P   24.14R    2.80  
Rochdale             17   20   -9      -0.47    48.09    -4.40    56.69     8.23   -14.04     0.00     0.04     2.90     0.57P   17.67R    1.69  
Gillingham           17   18   -3      -3.65    27.76    -0.12    54.96     8.34    -7.82     0.00     0.04     2.23     0.45P   22.22R    2.25  
Shrewsbury           17   18   -4      -4.92    20.46    -3.67    58.29     8.15    -2.92     0.00     0.08     4.43     1.20P   11.38R    0.82  
Scunthorpe           17   18  -11      -5.18    19.78   -10.38    58.07     8.51   -11.16     0.01     0.07     4.66     1.14P   14.14R    1.26  
Bristol_Rovers       17   17   +0      -5.63    17.02     0.90    54.32     8.15    -3.47     0.00     0.01     1.78     0.34P   23.02R    2.29  
Oxford_Utd           17   15   -7      -6.37    14.10    -3.76    52.37     8.35   -10.94     0.00     0.01     1.06     0.23P   32.30R    4.48  
Plymouth             17   13  -11      -6.71    12.14    -5.39    47.16     8.07   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.05P   58.04R   13.18  
AFC_Wimbledon        17   11  -15      -6.89    10.30    -7.39    41.38     7.74   -28.30     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   83.00R   36.18  
Bradford             17   10  -19      -8.82     5.48   -12.35    42.24     7.98   -30.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    79.57R   33.47  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Mansfield 2 1 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     17   36  +17       7.44    89.60     9.15    83.72     8.17    28.99    25.18    65.10    92.91    72.35P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          17   34  +14       3.82    73.71     4.00    87.26     8.10    33.75    44.24    79.50    97.10    85.38P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       17   31  +15       2.89    68.47     7.94    78.56     8.16    26.78    10.51    40.61    81.07    51.77P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         17   30   +9       6.10    84.49     7.90    70.87     8.36    10.81     1.70    11.58    46.37    18.41P    0.03R    0.00  
Exeter           17   29   +9       1.54    59.87     2.78    75.43     8.26    19.09     5.34    26.00    68.44    37.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   17   29   -4       7.19    88.93    -1.63    64.25     8.07   -10.93     0.26     2.49    17.31     4.65P    0.27R    0.01  
Mansfield        17   28  +12       0.18    51.16     5.39    75.97     8.14    24.19     5.87    28.57    72.09    41.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        17   28   +5       2.67    67.35     1.96    67.23     8.15     4.49     0.68     5.32    29.44    10.32P    0.11R    0.00  
Forest_Green     17   27   +9       4.44    77.49    10.20    65.43     8.21     7.06     0.38     3.74    23.50     7.26P    0.16R    0.01  
Bury             17   26  +10      -2.45    34.12     2.22    74.30     8.49    22.88     4.54    23.47    64.23    35.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle         17   23   -3      -1.09    43.02    -4.14    62.43     8.16    -3.32     0.15     1.55    13.03     4.06P    0.54R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     17   23   -5       2.61    67.82    -0.36    59.29     8.11   -10.57     0.05     0.57     6.79     1.56P    1.44R    0.11  
Port_Vale        17   22   -4       0.92    57.11    -1.08    59.70     7.99    -6.74     0.04     0.54     7.07     1.74P    1.19R    0.09  
Yeovil           16   21   +5       0.28    52.66     6.77    62.27     8.35     5.31     0.18     1.73    14.07     4.19P    0.58R    0.05  
Oldham           17   21   +3      -6.18    15.43    -2.86    66.11     8.40    10.96     0.53     4.68    26.96    11.32P    0.19R    0.01  
Northampton      17   21   -1      -3.64    27.57    -3.04    63.26     8.49     2.82     0.18     2.25    16.83     5.90P    0.54R    0.04  
Swindon          17   21   -3      -2.62    33.56    -3.59    63.79     8.18     1.55     0.16     2.06    17.13     5.50P    0.35R    0.01  
Crewe            17   19   -3      -2.47    34.17    -0.31    55.81     8.10    -7.22     0.01     0.19     3.14     0.72P    3.39R    0.31  
Cambridge_Utd    17   18  -11      -3.00    30.74    -7.72    53.23     7.98   -17.39     0.00     0.03     1.35     0.28P    6.79R    0.74  
Morecambe        17   17  -12      -1.51    40.46    -5.08    47.80     7.64   -25.29     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   19.69R    2.61  
Grimsby          17   15  -12      -2.69    32.36    -4.22    46.26     7.68   -23.70     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   26.12R    3.96  
Notts_County     17   14  -16      -6.64    12.90   -11.59    51.08     8.18   -20.40     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.17P   12.18R    1.44  
Cheltenham       16   11  -13      -6.82    10.39    -6.76    45.26     8.11   -23.44     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.02P   31.41R    5.54  
Macclesfield     17    7  -21      -6.81     9.05    -5.92    29.23     7.20   -49.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.01R   85.03  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 November 2018, AFC_Fylde 1 3 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            19   41  +16      10.63    95.94     9.68    83.34     7.56    23.93    16.66    79.00    32.46P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      19   40  +25       6.00    83.14    13.20    88.04     7.66    41.51    41.05    92.46    57.61P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       19   39  +20       8.52    90.15    13.34    81.87     8.29    28.97    14.88    72.27    28.48P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     19   37  +16       8.42    89.50    12.13    79.22     8.36    24.04     8.85    60.43    19.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     19   36   +8      10.33    94.94     8.31    72.13     7.71     7.17     1.18    24.43     5.13P    0.06R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          19   35  +20       1.91    61.61     9.35    81.62     7.67    34.29    12.64    74.00    31.59P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      18   33   +5       6.79    86.37     2.71    75.02     8.07    10.67     2.84    38.20    10.23P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead          19   32   +8       3.08    68.76     3.63    72.69     7.76    13.61     1.33    28.09     7.38P    0.04R    0.00  
Hartlepool         19   28   -2       2.45    65.72    -1.56    63.31     7.60    -4.01     0.04     3.78     0.71P    1.60R    0.04  
Eastleigh          19   28   -4       4.45    76.39    -0.64    62.64     7.63    -7.22     0.03     2.95     0.53P    2.27R    0.05  
Boreham_Wood       19   27   +0      -0.15    49.45    -2.01    64.92     7.64     1.80     0.10     5.66     1.31P    0.92R    0.01  
Barnet             18   25   -4      -3.30    29.77    -9.50    67.78     8.15     2.64     0.34    12.07     3.47P    0.58R    0.02  
Aldershot          19   24   -8      -1.85    38.95    -8.03    60.03     7.74    -9.05     0.01     1.56     0.33P    4.91R    0.17  
Bromley            19   23   -2      -3.97    27.15    -3.38    59.22     7.90    -3.53     0.01     1.50     0.32P    5.84R    0.23  
Ebbsfleet_United   19   23   -2      -2.36    35.90    -1.31    60.72     7.69    -0.61     0.02     1.89     0.42P    3.68R    0.13  
Halifax            19   22   -2      -0.65    46.63     2.35    54.07     7.40    -8.36     0.00     0.19     0.02P   15.88R    0.97  
Barrow             19   21   -4      -3.11    31.15    -1.26    54.54     7.59    -8.75     0.00     0.32     0.05P   14.88R    0.89  
Maidstone_United   19   18  -10      -2.58    34.57    -2.30    48.36     7.36   -19.23     0.00     0.02     0.00P   42.30R    5.66  
Chesterfield       19   17   -6     -10.82     4.34    -8.84    58.00     8.00     0.03     0.00     1.09     0.32P    7.59R    0.40  
Havant_&_Wville    19   17   -8      -3.15    32.19     1.85    46.16     8.02   -21.01     0.00     0.02     0.00    54.42R   11.09  
Maidenhead         19   17  -21      -2.41    35.60   -10.22    44.62     7.42   -36.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.69R   14.84  
Dag_&_Red          19   15  -10     -10.45     4.21    -9.43    50.58     7.74   -12.05     0.00     0.05     0.01P   30.57R    3.40  
Braintree_Town     19   13  -15      -4.66    22.00    -2.06    37.78     7.45   -33.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.54R   48.40  
Dover_Athletic     19   11  -20     -12.45     1.68   -16.02    44.87     7.74   -24.48     0.00     0.01     0.00    61.18R   13.71