Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 12 November 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 November 2018, Arsenal 1 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         12   32  +31       3.32    81.13     6.98    94.56     6.09    81.20    83.84    95.89    98.98    99.79   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        12   30  +18       6.06    92.26     5.11    83.48     7.04    46.58     9.65    51.95    77.22    91.07    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          12   28  +19       3.29    75.85     6.00    78.51     7.09    43.10     3.30    22.96    50.43    76.25    98.87     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        12   27  +10       3.58    78.05    -1.21    78.51     7.08    34.98     2.66    21.65    48.40    74.31    98.52     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          12   24  +11       1.77    63.74     1.52    71.99     7.35    31.25     0.46     5.59    17.62    38.28    92.27     0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth      12   20   +5       3.36    75.62     5.06    51.35     7.26    -4.63     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.20     5.23     0.38R    0.01  
Watford          12   20   +3       4.66    83.79     4.99    49.09     7.09    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     2.79     0.67R    0.02  
Man_Utd          12   20   -1      -0.53    45.32    -6.84    68.27     7.26    18.70     0.09     1.93     7.14    19.15    83.11     0.00     0.00  
Everton          12   19   +4       1.29    60.72     2.46    54.12     7.45     1.78     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.54    10.27     0.13R    0.00  
Leicester        12   17   +1      -0.09    49.81     0.52    51.52     7.40    -2.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.22     5.45     0.39R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    12   16   -1       2.67    72.54     4.14    47.55     7.45    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     2.08     1.68R    0.14  
Brighton         12   14   -5       1.44    63.78     1.56    42.97     7.13   -15.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.46     5.59R    0.50  
West_Ham         12   12   -4      -1.38    39.29     1.63    44.63     7.35   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.78     4.14R    0.34  
Newcastle        12    9   -6      -4.79    14.62    -1.61    41.35     7.20   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     8.44R    0.94  
Burnley          12    9  -13      -4.44    16.52    -7.80    36.45     6.98   -26.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    24.62R    3.69  
Crystal_Palace   12    8   -9      -5.39    11.73    -4.03    37.16     7.13   -20.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    21.55R    2.99  
Southampton      12    8  -13      -4.69    14.50    -6.46    36.82     7.09   -24.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    23.33R    3.98  
Cardiff          12    8  -14      -2.60    28.14    -2.75    31.89     7.09   -34.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    51.59R   13.49  
Huddersfield     12    7  -16      -2.23    30.40    -3.50    26.99     6.25   -41.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.14R   35.06  
Fulham           12    5  -20      -5.04    11.57    -5.76    26.84     6.90   -47.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.34R   38.83  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 November 2018, Birmingham 3 3 Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         17   33   +8       8.37    91.60     6.11    76.18     8.15    13.06    12.45    25.00    66.60    33.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   17   31  +11       2.22    64.66     3.17    79.87     7.92    24.14    24.66    43.37    82.71    55.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    17   30  +12       4.86    79.41     9.25    74.92     8.23    19.76    10.27    21.83    62.34    30.63P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       17   30   +8       4.58    77.95     4.85    73.12     8.28    12.92     7.37    16.04    52.61    23.98P    0.07R    0.00  
West_Brom       17   28  +12      -2.48    33.65     0.71    78.96     8.47    29.45    24.13    41.15    78.89    53.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           17   28   +5       0.45    52.81    -1.27    73.23     8.11    13.28     6.76    15.56    53.59    25.58P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   17   27   +7       3.96    75.33     7.30    65.74     8.09     5.46     1.09     3.15    20.67     6.51P    0.90R    0.07  
Swansea         17   26   +6      -1.70    38.61    -0.50    72.13     8.30    15.38     6.00    13.66    49.32    24.35P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackburn       17   26   -1       2.87    68.45    -0.74    64.40     8.37    -2.88     0.84     2.36    16.33     5.16P    1.53R    0.11  
QPR             17   26   -4       5.18    81.22    -0.11    60.65     7.90   -11.96     0.21     0.63     6.74     1.62P    3.90R    0.38  
Aston_Villa     17   24   +4      -3.39    28.41    -2.18    69.21     8.14    12.11     2.98     7.50    35.23    15.06P    0.28R    0.01  
Birmingham      17   24   +3       3.85    75.64     7.61    57.38     7.83    -6.19     0.06     0.23     3.22     0.69P    7.81R    1.03  
Bristol_City    17   22   +1      -1.70    38.98     0.52    62.03     8.16     1.37     0.38     1.22    10.63     3.26P    2.64R    0.32  
Stoke           17   22   -1      -3.26    29.45    -3.87    66.67     8.36     6.47     1.48     4.11    24.61     9.77P    0.91R    0.08  
Brentford       17   21   +4      -4.71    21.69     0.43    63.80     8.35     8.45     0.82     2.37    16.13     5.68P    1.79R    0.22  
Wigan           17   20   -7      -2.17    36.48    -5.42    60.83     8.46    -5.36     0.28     0.92     8.60     2.66P    4.63R    0.69  
Sheff_Wed       17   20   -9      -1.16    43.15    -5.65    58.10     8.15   -11.78     0.12     0.36     4.22     1.17P    7.97R    1.23  
Preston         17   18   -4      -4.91    20.22    -3.27    57.97     8.24    -3.83     0.09     0.39     4.48     1.26P    7.80R    1.10  
Rotherham       17   18   -9       0.85    57.50     0.53    47.59     7.89   -24.97     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   46.43R   14.12  
Reading         17   16   -5      -4.40    22.66     0.13    48.95     7.98   -16.04     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.05P   37.16R   10.19  
Millwall        17   16   -7      -4.65    21.63    -2.94    53.86     8.06    -9.94     0.02     0.07     1.33     0.32P   17.40R    3.39  
Hull            17   16   -8      -5.56    17.47    -5.23    53.33     8.11   -12.21     0.01     0.06     1.21     0.30P   19.20R    3.74  
Bolton          17   16  -12      -0.12    50.76    -1.47    42.68     7.20   -31.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    72.15R   33.10  
Ipswich         17   11  -14      -8.26     6.79    -7.98    43.19     7.86   -25.56     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   67.19R   30.18  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Gillingham 0 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           17   38  +14      10.92    96.61     8.50    81.85     8.25    19.97    10.45    29.39    86.29    42.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           16   35  +19       4.26    76.34     5.49    92.07     8.53    43.34    56.72    78.58    98.51    85.81P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         17   33  +11       6.37    84.97     6.09    80.96     8.49    23.39     8.81    26.94    83.71    41.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             16   31  +15       1.59    60.00     3.78    84.66     8.77    33.68    20.07    46.37    91.63    62.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                17   29   +8       3.76    72.82     5.25    73.73     8.64    15.27     1.74     7.53    55.88    19.17P    0.24R    0.00  
Charlton             17   28   +6       2.12    63.68     2.31    72.57     8.34    13.04     1.26     5.63    49.73    16.74P    0.25R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   17   28   +2       6.06    84.27     3.90    64.68     8.42    -2.63     0.17     0.88    16.67     3.80P    3.03R    0.11  
Coventry             17   28   +2       6.32    85.43     4.11    64.10     8.35    -2.91     0.12     0.67    15.07     3.28P    3.11R    0.11  
Blackpool            16   25   +3       1.88    63.04     1.18    65.39     8.34     2.15     0.19     0.98    19.00     4.84P    2.24R    0.08  
Doncaster            17   25   +1       2.06    63.90     1.57    64.50     8.29     0.42     0.12     0.73    15.85     3.73P    2.97R    0.14  
Walsall              17   25   -5       3.76    74.13    -1.96    59.62     8.11   -12.73     0.03     0.16     5.63     1.06P    9.34R    0.53  
Fleetwood_Town       17   23   +5      -1.09    43.47     3.93    65.17     8.33     8.55     0.15     0.85    19.55     5.12P    2.29R    0.08  
Southend             17   23   -1       0.21    52.14    -0.10    62.98     8.29    -0.80     0.06     0.46    12.38     2.94P    4.21R    0.20  
Burton_Albion        16   21   +0      -1.66    39.09    -0.98    61.30     8.71    -1.23     0.06     0.47    10.47     2.85P    7.01R    0.42  
Wycombe              17   21   -1       0.82    56.38     3.84    54.37     8.28   -11.27     0.01     0.04     1.78     0.36P   24.88R    2.77  
Rochdale             17   20   -9      -0.51    47.47    -4.43    56.70     8.28   -14.01     0.01     0.04     2.94     0.61P   17.47R    1.60  
Gillingham           17   18   -3      -3.74    26.99    -0.30    55.14     8.33    -7.50     0.01     0.04     2.33     0.55P   21.44R    2.13  
Shrewsbury           17   18   -4      -5.10    19.37    -3.91    58.60     8.17    -2.50     0.01     0.10     4.78     1.24P   10.82R    0.73  
Scunthorpe           17   18  -11      -5.25    19.54   -10.50    58.23     8.48   -10.88     0.02     0.10     4.67     1.20P   13.43R    1.20  
Bristol_Rovers       17   17   +0      -5.63    17.11     0.86    54.24     8.18    -3.51     0.00     0.02     1.81     0.41P   23.16R    2.29  
Oxford_Utd           17   15   -7      -6.38    14.26    -3.77    52.35     8.43   -11.03     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.21P   32.73R    4.42  
Plymouth             17   13  -11      -6.66    12.52    -5.36    47.12     8.07   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P   58.10R   13.22  
AFC_Wimbledon        17   11  -15      -6.74    10.85    -7.17    41.21     7.69   -28.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    83.37R   37.12  
Bradford             17   10  -19      -8.80     5.37   -12.32    42.20     7.93   -30.62     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   79.90R   32.85  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 November 2018, Mansfield 2 1 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     17   36  +17       7.44    89.66     9.14    83.78     8.16    29.02    25.09    65.45    92.91    72.55P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          17   34  +14       3.87    73.68     4.08    87.23     8.16    33.69    44.07    79.56    96.86    85.13P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       17   31  +15       2.91    68.72     7.95    78.55     8.14    26.78    10.58    40.82    81.51    51.87P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         17   30   +9       6.13    84.62     7.98    70.68     8.42    10.56     1.84    11.30    45.34    18.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter           17   29   +9       1.55    60.01     2.79    75.52     8.15    19.22     5.30    26.25    69.33    37.76P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   17   29   -4       7.20    89.00    -1.60    64.10     8.10   -11.13     0.25     2.44    16.81     4.67P    0.32R    0.01  
Mansfield        17   28  +12       0.14    50.41     5.34    76.09     8.05    24.34     6.11    28.85    72.71    41.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        17   28   +5       2.68    67.65     1.99    67.13     8.06     4.39     0.66     5.03    28.72    10.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Forest_Green     17   27   +9       4.42    77.33    10.19    65.37     8.20     6.99     0.37     3.43    23.24     7.04P    0.15R    0.00  
Bury             17   26  +10      -2.32    34.89     2.39    74.10     8.51    22.60     4.39    22.66    63.61    34.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle         17   23   -3      -1.07    43.16    -4.08    62.35     8.16    -3.37     0.14     1.60    12.64     3.93P    0.50R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     17   23   -5       2.62    67.72    -0.32    59.23     8.05   -10.71     0.03     0.53     6.54     1.53P    1.37R    0.14  
Port_Vale        17   22   -4       0.84    56.72    -1.21    59.88     7.98    -6.44     0.02     0.56     7.36     1.82P    1.18R    0.08  
Yeovil           16   21   +5       0.22    52.26     6.66    62.28     8.35     5.30     0.16     1.78    14.28     4.24P    0.62R    0.05  
Oldham           17   21   +3      -6.19    15.16    -2.87    66.16     8.41    11.04     0.57     4.95    26.95    11.50P    0.22R    0.01  
Northampton      17   21   -1      -3.74    26.94    -3.21    63.49     8.53     3.14     0.22     2.40    17.69     6.17P    0.51R    0.04  
Swindon          17   21   -3      -2.70    33.06    -3.66    63.84     8.24     1.59     0.17     2.10    17.51     5.72P    0.38R    0.02  
Crewe            17   19   -3      -2.46    34.18    -0.33    55.87     8.09    -7.12     0.01     0.17     3.23     0.76P    3.23R    0.23  
Cambridge_Utd    17   18  -11      -3.01    30.74    -7.81    53.39     8.04   -17.19     0.01     0.07     1.52     0.37P    6.61R    0.71  
Morecambe        17   17  -12      -1.45    41.20    -4.98    47.71     7.70   -25.44     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.04P   20.55R    2.64  
Grimsby          17   15  -12      -2.69    32.19    -4.26    46.38     7.61   -23.52     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.03P   25.46R    3.59  
Notts_County     17   14  -16      -6.60    12.98   -11.54    50.89     8.22   -20.62     0.00     0.04     0.76     0.16P   12.46R    1.54  
Cheltenham       16   11  -13      -6.84    10.28    -6.75    45.37     8.13   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   31.06R    5.30  
Macclesfield     17    7  -21      -6.80     9.12    -5.89    29.13     7.14   -49.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.31R   85.60  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 November 2018, AFC_Fylde 1 3 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            19   41  +16      10.62    95.96     9.68    83.38     7.51    24.03    16.80    79.50    32.65P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      19   40  +25       6.05    83.46    13.26    88.00     7.70    41.48    41.14    92.48    57.46P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       19   39  +20       8.66    90.44    13.58    81.58     8.23    28.56    14.08    71.48    27.43P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     19   37  +16       8.38    89.22    12.09    79.34     8.35    24.17     9.03    61.52    20.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     19   36   +8      10.31    95.03     8.35    72.14     7.69     7.18     1.24    24.47     5.09P    0.05R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          19   35  +20       1.97    61.82     9.45    81.55     7.71    34.20    12.95    74.04    31.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      18   33   +5       6.83    86.83     2.72    75.00     7.95    10.63     2.87    37.96    10.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead          19   32   +8       3.17    69.16     3.74    72.57     7.72    13.45     1.32    27.43     7.44P    0.05R    0.00  
Hartlepool         19   28   -2       2.35    64.88    -1.67    63.50     7.62    -3.74     0.06     4.08     0.81P    1.39R    0.03  
Eastleigh          19   28   -4       4.47    76.91    -0.55    62.64     7.55    -7.22     0.04     2.95     0.48P    2.01R    0.04  
Boreham_Wood       19   27   +0      -0.18    49.28    -2.03    64.87     7.61     1.77     0.10     5.55     1.31P    0.91R    0.01  
Barnet             18   25   -4      -3.27    29.77    -9.43    67.66     8.13     2.42     0.35    11.87     3.48P    0.56R    0.01  
Aldershot          19   24   -8      -1.91    38.50    -8.14    60.22     7.67    -8.82     0.02     1.56     0.35P    4.31R    0.14  
Bromley            19   23   -2      -3.99    26.94    -3.43    59.40     7.86    -3.27     0.01     1.53     0.28P    5.52R    0.27  
Ebbsfleet_United   19   23   -2      -2.32    35.97    -1.27    60.66     7.73    -0.73     0.01     2.01     0.40P    3.76R    0.20  
Halifax            19   22   -2      -0.72    46.20     2.22    54.28     7.40    -8.07     0.00     0.21     0.03P   15.17R    1.01  
Barrow             19   21   -4      -3.13    31.12    -1.32    54.52     7.59    -8.80     0.00     0.25     0.04P   15.02R    0.94  
Maidstone_United   19   18  -10      -2.50    34.81    -2.19    48.19     7.38   -19.50     0.00     0.02     0.00P   43.56R    6.00  
Chesterfield       19   17   -6     -10.88     4.16    -8.96    58.09     7.97     0.19     0.00     1.03     0.32P    7.54R    0.43  
Havant_&_Wville    19   17   -8      -3.13    32.14     1.85    46.05     7.91   -21.09     0.00     0.02     0.00P   54.85R   11.37  
Maidenhead         19   17  -21      -2.38    35.77   -10.23    44.56     7.45   -36.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.07R   15.50  
Dag_&_Red          19   15  -10     -10.35     4.49    -9.27    50.40     7.72   -12.32     0.00     0.05     0.02P   31.23R    3.52  
Braintree_Town     19   13  -15      -4.97    20.86    -2.55    38.16     7.58   -32.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.32R   46.60  
Dover_Athletic     19   11  -20     -12.38     1.81   -15.92    44.77     7.65   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.62R   13.92