Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 28 October 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 October 2018, Arsenal 3 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   23  +23       1.23    63.10     4.61    90.88     6.90    74.29    67.53    87.81    95.57    98.65    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   23  +13       5.59    93.67     4.80    83.31     7.65    47.18    17.77    52.24    74.77    88.88    99.44     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   21  +13       3.14    78.11     4.28    77.37     7.74    39.70     5.43    20.98    44.33    68.53    97.16     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   21  +11       3.83    83.08     2.77    75.20     8.02    34.85     3.24    15.00    33.09    56.58    94.96     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         9   21   +9       2.56    74.06    -1.03    77.67     7.80    35.66     5.75    22.05    45.30    68.68    97.21     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       9   17   +4       4.48    85.85     4.04    51.61     7.97    -6.93     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.47     7.64     0.79R    0.07  
Watford           9   16   +1       5.44    90.89     4.09    48.92     7.81   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.16     3.74     1.71R    0.13  
Everton           9   15   +3       0.93    58.64     0.60    52.47     8.05    -2.21     0.00     0.03     0.15     0.68     9.44     0.68R    0.04  
Wolverhampton     9   15   +1       4.45    86.45     3.95    48.97     8.11    -8.96     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.24     4.27     2.12R    0.17  
Man_Utd           9   14   -1      -2.14    29.54    -6.63    66.64     7.94    18.82     0.27     1.85     6.45    16.45    74.55     0.00R    0.00  
Leicester         9   12   +0       0.04    51.27     1.14    51.95     8.28    -1.83     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.62     8.59     0.99R    0.07  
Brighton          9   11   -3       1.92    70.90     2.52    44.42     7.82   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     1.22     6.04R    0.69  
Burnley           9    8   -7      -3.15    21.54    -4.78    39.68     7.66   -19.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28    16.52R    2.22  
West_Ham          9    7   -6      -1.76    33.75     0.32    43.10     8.07   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.92     9.50R    1.30  
Crystal_Palace    9    7   -6      -4.26    14.51    -4.31    37.98     7.62   -21.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19    22.69R    3.74  
Southampton       9    6   -8      -3.98    15.34    -4.38    38.86     7.69   -19.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.20    19.78R    3.57  
Cardiff           9    5  -11      -2.90    22.07    -2.58    31.73     7.63   -33.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    55.13R   16.77  
Fulham            9    5  -14      -2.89    23.18    -3.93    31.25     7.89   -41.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    58.93R   21.33  
Huddersfield      9    3  -14      -3.06    17.44    -2.85    26.22     6.92   -41.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.68R   45.32  
Newcastle         9    2   -8      -7.09     1.81    -2.65    37.76     7.92   -14.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17    23.45R    4.59  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 October 2018, Bolton 0 3 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    14   26  +14       4.34    78.97    10.22    75.73     8.91    22.71    12.56    25.33    64.09    34.32P    0.05R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   14   26   +9       2.33    67.18     2.52    79.41     8.60    22.78    21.02    38.71    78.14    50.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       14   26   +7       5.24    83.52     4.66    73.84     9.02    12.84     8.65    18.36    54.45    26.08P    0.09R    0.01  
West_Brom       14   24  +10      -0.95    42.70     0.87    80.59     9.16    29.86    28.78    46.26    81.09    57.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           14   24   +6       0.59    54.18    -0.12    74.43     8.77    15.98     9.24    19.74    57.75    30.08P    0.06R    0.01  
Norwich         14   24   +2       5.21    83.44     2.63    69.30     8.76     3.97     2.87     7.21    33.80    12.42P    0.45R    0.06  
Nott'm_Forest   14   22   +6       3.14    73.03     6.51    64.12     8.83     3.11     0.86     2.58    16.93     5.24P    2.09R    0.25  
Bristol_City    14   22   +4       1.95    64.42     2.80    68.28     8.82     7.55     2.40     6.33    30.72    11.84P    0.61R    0.06  
Blackburn       14   21   -2       2.39    67.52    -1.17    63.64     9.05    -3.98     0.95     2.57    15.66     5.20P    2.53R    0.33  
Swansea         14   20   +4      -2.15    34.57    -0.44    71.63     9.01    15.35     5.74    13.15    45.97    23.02P    0.23R    0.01  
Birmingham      14   20   +3       3.75    77.62     7.11    56.57     8.29    -7.10     0.07     0.23     3.18     0.69P    9.63R    1.50  
Wigan           14   20   -2       0.11    51.27    -3.12    66.11     9.01     1.58     1.48     4.16    22.74     8.69P    1.42R    0.17  
QPR             14   20   -5       3.33    74.17    -1.05    57.54     8.51   -14.95     0.09     0.33     4.13     0.96P    9.08R    1.52  
Sheff_Wed       14   19   -3       0.36    53.08    -2.09    63.40     8.76    -2.39     0.65     2.01    14.51     4.50P    2.50R    0.34  
Brentford       14   18   +4      -3.24    27.39     0.96    65.68     8.93     9.61     1.57     4.15    22.41     8.64P    1.34R    0.14  
Aston_Villa     14   18   +0      -3.96    23.32    -4.16    66.74     8.79     7.26     1.72     4.71    25.22    10.06P    0.89R    0.09  
Stoke           14   17   -2      -3.95    23.26    -4.49    64.97     9.22     4.26     1.22     3.53    20.68     8.21P    2.05R    0.29  
Bolton          14   16   -8       2.20    68.52     0.08    46.32     7.90   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   50.97R   16.94  
Preston         14   13   -5      -5.49    14.79    -3.74    57.45     8.97    -4.40     0.10     0.42     4.98     1.44P    9.62R    1.90  
Millwall        14   13   -7      -3.87    23.62    -3.58    54.24     8.71   -10.95     0.03     0.15     2.06     0.55P   17.07R    3.64  
Rotherham       14   13  -10      -0.63    46.56    -1.22    43.38     8.41   -31.32     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   64.40R   30.46  
Reading         14   12   -4      -4.66    18.58     0.41    48.78     8.52   -15.31     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.11P   36.60R   11.28  
Hull            14    9  -10      -8.13     5.61    -6.72    49.21     8.68   -16.13     0.00     0.03     0.58     0.14P   34.95R   10.35  
Ipswich         14    9  -11      -7.38     6.94    -6.88    45.43     8.46   -22.30     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.04P   53.34R   20.65  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 October 2018, Blackpool 1 0 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           15   34  +13      10.11    96.66     8.15    81.03     8.78    19.55    13.85    31.34    80.60    42.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough         15   30  +11       6.45    87.01     6.56    81.50     8.86    24.68    14.88    34.37    82.76    46.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland           14   29  +14       3.05    70.69     3.65    88.08     9.21    37.13    43.84    65.24    94.34    75.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   15   26   +2       6.64    87.88     3.71    65.20     8.85    -2.97     0.46     1.77    17.64     4.74P    2.67R    0.10  
Barnsley             14   25  +13      -0.50    45.58     3.39    81.86     9.32    32.62    18.75    38.69    83.14    53.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Luton                15   25   +6       3.43    72.55     4.66    72.80     9.25    13.72     3.04     9.23    48.81    18.78P    0.43R    0.02  
Doncaster            15   25   +4       3.88    75.66     3.24    68.49     8.75     5.35     0.91     3.23    29.30     8.68P    0.92R    0.04  
Coventry             15   24   +1       5.18    82.73     3.30    62.13     8.69    -4.84     0.15     0.70    10.51     2.48P    5.08R    0.31  
Southend             15   23   +3       1.19    58.55     1.17    66.03     8.75     3.58     0.50     1.89    20.54     6.07P    2.03R    0.10  
Blackpool            13   22   +6       2.59    69.38     3.66    68.43     9.01     7.98     1.09     3.67    29.65     9.58P    1.17R    0.05  
Charlton             14   22   +3       1.36    60.26     0.93    70.60     9.00     9.92     1.57     5.55    38.74    13.73P    0.70R    0.03  
Walsall              14   22   -2       4.08    78.12    -0.18    61.76     8.74    -8.00     0.15     0.61     9.44     2.13P    5.85R    0.44  
Fleetwood_Town       15   20   +7      -1.54    39.47     5.62    66.21     8.72    12.43     0.45     1.97    22.41     6.97P    1.77R    0.09  
Wycombe              15   18   -1       0.20    52.66     3.25    53.53     8.76   -12.18     0.01     0.07     1.77     0.41P   26.27R    4.08  
Burton_Albion        14   18   -1      -1.77    37.88    -1.83    60.39     9.08    -3.13     0.17     0.60     8.72     2.42P    8.01R    0.73  
Scunthorpe           15   17   -8      -3.79    25.75    -8.06    62.13     8.95    -4.44     0.11     0.67    10.78     3.17P    6.09R    0.51  
Rochdale             15   16  -10      -1.77    38.47    -5.29    54.21     8.69   -17.22     0.01     0.06     1.82     0.41P   24.49R    3.72  
Shrewsbury           15   15   -2      -5.51    16.00    -2.15    59.82     8.59     1.64     0.03     0.27     6.54     1.83P    8.06R    0.77  
Bristol_Rovers       15   14   -2      -5.93    14.09    -1.16    52.22     8.49    -8.17     0.00     0.03     1.04     0.21P   29.37R    4.75  
Gillingham           14   12   -9      -4.24    21.34    -4.07    50.22     8.83   -18.33     0.00     0.02     0.68     0.14P   40.31R    8.96  
Oxford_Utd           15   11  -10      -7.16     9.10    -6.18    49.08     8.64   -16.90     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.11P   44.76R   10.51  
AFC_Wimbledon        15   11  -12      -5.12    16.40    -5.80    43.97     8.12   -25.46     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   69.25R   25.04  
Plymouth             15   10  -12      -7.38     8.18    -7.16    44.93     8.43   -23.53     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   64.38R   22.14  
Bradford             15   10  -14      -7.43     7.62    -9.40    46.33     8.50   -23.43     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   58.35R   17.62  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 October 2018, Bury 1 1 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     15   33  +17       7.50    91.59     9.65    84.13     8.57    29.98    29.26    67.08    92.96    73.89P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          15   30  +10       3.91    75.49     2.02    84.48     8.71    27.43    30.84    67.47    93.00    75.41P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           15   29  +12       4.00    76.41     5.38    80.57     8.60    25.61    16.47    50.47    86.06    60.32P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   15   28   -3       8.90    94.98    -0.76    66.39     8.50    -9.21     0.65     4.58    26.94     7.96P    0.22R    0.02  
Colchester       15   25  +13       0.32    52.05     6.88    75.16     8.65    24.57     6.74    27.40    69.08    38.80P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     15   24   +9       3.50    73.88     9.14    63.81     8.58     4.99     0.39     3.03    20.01     6.13P    0.44R    0.05  
Tranmere         15   24   +3       4.47    79.20     4.25    64.28     8.75     0.18     0.48     3.51    20.94     6.77P    0.54R    0.05  
Bury             15   23   +8      -1.54    38.98     2.03    74.63     9.01    21.74     6.03    26.19    66.05    37.72P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     15   23   +3       3.03    70.87     4.02    64.69     8.61     1.82     0.48     3.54    22.23     6.99P    0.39R    0.04  
Stevenage        15   22   +2       0.19    51.57     0.14    62.86     8.46     0.05     0.24     2.20    16.46     5.25P    0.59R    0.05  
Mansfield        13   20   +8      -0.68    44.85     3.80    73.18     8.99    19.72     4.63    20.49    59.86    31.73P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           14   20   +5      -3.41    26.32    -1.26    70.96     9.13    15.43     2.88    14.93    49.86    25.44P    0.06R    0.00  
Carlisle         15   20   -3      -1.05    42.86    -3.76    62.93     8.69    -2.10     0.25     2.28    16.83     5.48P    0.74R    0.07  
Yeovil           14   18   +5       0.02    50.71     6.77    62.04     8.82     5.32     0.20     2.16    15.52     4.87P    1.06R    0.13  
Swindon          15   18   -3      -3.17    28.58    -3.96    63.08     8.61     0.87     0.27     2.29    17.50     5.78P    0.66R    0.07  
Port_Vale        15   18   -5      -0.24    49.03    -1.90    58.14     8.44    -8.09     0.04     0.54     6.38     1.65P    2.61R    0.37  
Crewe            14   16   +0      -2.18    34.57     1.47    57.78     8.74    -2.93     0.07     0.70     7.06     1.99P    2.86R    0.32  
Northampton      15   15   -4      -6.00    14.23    -4.71    58.49     8.92    -2.41     0.06     0.88     8.36     2.74P    2.56R    0.33  
Grimsby          14   15   -8      -0.30    48.99    -2.68    50.26     8.21   -19.77     0.00     0.04     0.83     0.15P   14.46R    2.45  
Morecambe        15   13  -13      -2.82    30.36    -6.14    45.42     8.04   -27.92     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.03P   32.88R    7.57  
Cambridge_Utd    15   12  -13      -5.35    16.09    -8.34    50.82     8.41   -18.29     0.00     0.04     1.07     0.20P   13.34R    2.79  
Notts_County     14   12  -15      -5.04    17.16   -11.37    53.12     8.85   -19.45     0.01     0.15     2.38     0.60P    9.93R    1.74  
Cheltenham       14   10  -11      -5.76    12.67    -5.81    47.06     8.57   -21.22     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.08P   25.43R    5.87  
Macclesfield     15    7  -17      -5.79    12.06    -4.85    31.35     7.64   -46.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.16R   78.06  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       16   34  +18       8.40    92.18    12.47    80.64     8.91    26.46    17.27    67.95    29.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            16   34  +13       8.72    94.07     8.10    79.86     8.13    20.25    12.50    65.19    25.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      16   33  +19       5.30    82.27    10.62    84.89     8.27    35.16    32.11    85.00    48.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     16   33  +15       9.02    93.27    11.82    79.95     9.13    23.80    15.56    64.71    26.37P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   31   +6      10.12    96.11     7.39    71.34     8.29     5.28     1.88    24.83     5.74P    0.21R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          16   29  +15       1.75    61.43     7.05    78.86     8.34    27.83    11.41    62.42    26.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          16   29   +8       4.01    75.70     3.44    73.10     8.30    12.72     2.98    33.41    10.19P    0.10R    0.00  
Hartlepool         16   28   +4       4.78    79.98     1.98    69.10     8.20     4.62     1.04    17.56     4.61P    0.41R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.46    79.03     1.46    71.59     8.69     7.91     2.44    27.21     7.82P    0.30R    0.00  
Eastleigh          16   23   -5       3.38    72.84    -1.77    60.57     8.19    -9.92     0.06     2.70     0.52P    5.60R    0.10  
Boreham_Wood       16   22   -1      -0.96    43.85    -2.76    63.67     8.22     0.45     0.20     6.10     1.63P    2.27R    0.03  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.22    34.45    -7.53    71.16     8.78     7.81     2.11    26.02     9.28P    0.41R    0.01  
Barrow             16   21   +1      -0.68    46.08     1.20    59.41     8.28    -2.55     0.07     2.41     0.55P    6.67R    0.13  
Halifax            16   21   +0       1.99    65.14     3.74    57.63     7.98    -5.75     0.01     1.09     0.22P    9.49R    0.16  
Bromley            16   20   -3      -2.15    35.86    -3.32    61.30     8.44    -2.85     0.13     3.94     0.98P    4.71R    0.07  
Aldershot          16   20   -6      -2.09    36.07    -6.54    61.39     8.29    -5.21     0.10     3.65     0.90P    4.54R    0.07  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   18   -3      -3.04    30.17    -2.02    59.92     8.33    -1.54     0.06     2.60     0.59P    6.31R    0.14  
Maidenhead         16   17   -6      -2.39    34.56    -2.14    53.35     8.35   -13.56     0.01     0.43     0.08P   23.40R    1.00  
Chesterfield       16   14   -6      -9.86     4.17    -9.05    59.13     8.66     0.14     0.04     2.62     0.83P    7.86R    0.18  
Maidstone_United   16   14  -10      -3.06    29.16    -3.21    46.98     7.88   -21.16     0.00     0.04     0.00P   52.63R    4.21  
Havant_&_Wville    16   11  -12      -3.97    24.70    -0.83    40.29     8.36   -31.05     0.00     0.00     0.00P   79.82R   19.32  
Dag_&_Red          16    9  -12     -12.06     1.19   -10.95    47.46     8.32   -15.83     0.00     0.06     0.02P   48.64R    4.24  
Dover_Athletic     16    8  -19     -11.21     1.67   -14.90    47.33     8.40   -21.53     0.00     0.05     0.01P   50.31R    4.87  
Braintree_Town     16    7  -17      -6.61     9.15    -4.24    32.08     7.84   -41.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.27R   65.47