Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 27 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 October 2018, Arsenal 3 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   23  +23       1.28    63.76     4.76    90.84     6.85    74.04    67.22    87.45    95.30    98.57    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   23  +13       5.65    93.77     4.88    83.29     7.66    47.03    17.72    51.96    74.43    88.57    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   21  +13       3.18    78.53     4.36    77.29     7.79    39.58     5.31    20.63    43.81    68.15    97.20     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   21  +11       3.73    82.24     2.58    75.36     8.08    35.18     3.49    15.38    33.80    57.00    94.88     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         9   21   +9       2.52    73.70    -1.12    77.76     7.83    35.85     5.91    22.44    45.48    68.68    97.32     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       9   17   +4       4.46    85.61     4.01    51.69     8.00    -6.78     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.50     7.75     0.80R    0.06  
Watford           9   16   +1       5.44    90.99     4.13    48.87     7.81   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     3.77     1.83R    0.09  
Everton           9   15   +3       0.98    59.34     0.66    52.31     8.07    -2.44     0.00     0.02     0.17     0.64     9.08     0.67R    0.05  
Wolverhampton     9   15   +1       4.46    86.45     3.94    48.95     8.15    -8.89     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.25     4.28     2.12R    0.18  
Man_Utd           9   14   -1      -2.20    29.27    -6.72    66.77     8.00    18.99     0.35     2.07     6.69    16.87    74.68     0.00     0.00  
Leicester         9   12   +0       0.05    50.76     1.14    52.01     8.23    -1.69     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.56     8.68     1.01R    0.06  
Brighton          9   11   -3       1.94    71.12     2.52    44.38     7.75   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.17     5.85R    0.55  
Burnley           9    8   -7      -3.19    20.91    -4.84    39.74     7.61   -19.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.28    16.18R    2.14  
West_Ham          9    7   -6      -1.72    33.92     0.40    42.97     8.04   -14.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.94     9.50R    1.31  
Crystal_Palace    9    7   -6      -4.34    14.26    -4.45    38.05     7.60   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17    22.31R    3.63  
Southampton       9    6   -8      -4.02    15.22    -4.44    38.89     7.71   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22    19.80R    3.34  
Cardiff           9    5  -11      -2.91    22.05    -2.64    31.75     7.73   -33.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    55.41R   17.08  
Fulham            9    5  -14      -2.79    24.21    -3.74    31.13     7.92   -41.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    59.36R   21.87  
Huddersfield      9    3  -14      -3.04    17.37    -2.82    26.22     6.92   -41.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.81R   45.16  
Newcastle         9    2   -8      -7.07     1.83    -2.61    37.78     7.89   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    23.34R    4.48  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 October 2018, Bolton 0 3 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    14   26  +14       4.32    79.06    10.17    75.87     8.91    22.92    12.79    25.95    64.84    35.14P    0.05R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   14   26   +9       2.25    66.56     2.43    79.49     8.55    22.90    21.43    39.18    78.63    51.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       14   26   +7       5.31    83.95     4.75    73.75     8.95    12.67     8.23    17.64    53.78    25.50P    0.11R    0.00  
West_Brom       14   24  +10      -0.93    42.78     0.92    80.55     9.22    29.81    28.53    46.07    80.65    56.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           14   24   +6       0.65    54.47    -0.09    74.36     8.72    15.85     9.06    19.30    57.12    29.55P    0.05R    0.00  
Norwich         14   24   +2       5.22    83.36     2.66    69.33     8.79     4.03     2.84     7.38    33.83    12.46P    0.45R    0.04  
Nott'm_Forest   14   22   +6       3.11    72.70     6.50    64.18     8.87     3.23     0.97     2.75    17.04     5.41P    1.87R    0.21  
Bristol_City    14   22   +4       1.99    64.68     2.84    68.37     8.84     7.70     2.46     6.45    30.94    11.67P    0.61R    0.04  
Blackburn       14   21   -2       2.32    66.92    -1.22    63.65     9.10    -3.98     0.89     2.48    15.33     5.05P    2.68R    0.34  
Swansea         14   20   +4      -2.19    34.04    -0.50    71.70     9.01    15.43     5.70    13.03    46.30    23.03P    0.23R    0.02  
Birmingham      14   20   +3       3.63    76.82     6.96    56.81     8.32    -6.76     0.07     0.27     3.35     0.79P    9.13R    1.35  
Wigan           14   20   -2       0.17    51.85    -3.04    66.06     8.94     1.45     1.47     3.99    22.25     8.32P    1.27R    0.13  
QPR             14   20   -5       3.20    73.48    -1.26    57.71     8.61   -14.65     0.10     0.40     4.43     1.06P    8.98R    1.43  
Sheff_Wed       14   19   -3       0.24    52.18    -2.27    63.64     8.90    -2.06     0.72     2.33    15.49     5.10P    2.45R    0.29  
Brentford       14   18   +4      -3.25    27.29     0.92    65.70     8.98     9.72     1.60     4.13    22.65     8.73P    1.42R    0.13  
Aston_Villa     14   18   +0      -3.93    23.25    -4.13    66.66     8.71     7.16     1.64     4.47    24.70     9.72P    0.86R    0.07  
Stoke           14   17   -2      -3.97    23.27    -4.52    64.96     9.20     4.31     1.30     3.55    20.49     8.00P    1.85R    0.20  
Bolton          14   16   -8       2.30    69.20     0.22    46.17     7.95   -28.26     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.03P   51.18R   17.43  
Preston         14   13   -5      -5.44    15.13    -3.67    57.27     8.93    -4.67     0.15     0.45     4.75     1.46P    9.91R    1.84  
Millwall        14   13   -7      -3.87    23.73    -3.62    54.21     8.69   -11.06     0.03     0.12     2.06     0.53P   16.90R    3.63  
Rotherham       14   13  -10      -0.65    46.80    -1.25    43.35     8.41   -31.40     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   64.00R   30.09  
Reading         14   12   -4      -4.56    19.38     0.57    48.64     8.63   -15.58     0.01     0.03     0.48     0.12P   37.35R   11.67  
Hull            14    9  -10      -8.12     5.79    -6.67    49.15     8.68   -16.25     0.01     0.03     0.57     0.14P   35.18R   10.28  
Ipswich         14    9  -11      -7.27     7.10    -6.72    45.29     8.49   -22.51     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   53.46R   20.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 October 2018, Blackpool 1 0 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           15   34  +13      10.15    96.61     8.17    80.97     8.77    19.48    13.55    30.88    80.42    42.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough         15   30  +11       6.39    86.78     6.46    81.66     8.86    24.95    14.89    34.63    83.17    46.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland           14   29  +14       2.88    69.61     3.39    88.40     9.18    37.75    44.82    66.41    94.70    75.95P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   15   26   +2       6.63    87.85     3.74    65.19     8.96    -2.96     0.51     1.84    17.74     4.77P    2.79R    0.14  
Barnsley             14   25  +13      -0.50    45.59     3.42    81.81     9.37    32.54    18.15    38.05    82.88    53.66P    0.04R    0.00  
Luton                15   25   +6       3.40    72.31     4.57    72.91     9.24    13.97     2.95     9.10    49.12    18.59P    0.42R    0.01  
Doncaster            15   25   +4       3.92    75.75     3.29    68.39     8.75     5.21     0.85     3.16    28.67     8.52P    1.07R    0.06  
Coventry             15   24   +1       5.25    82.76     3.38    62.06     8.76    -4.95     0.16     0.65    10.29     2.47P    5.27R    0.30  
Southend             15   23   +3       1.25    58.93     1.27    65.98     8.79     3.45     0.47     1.86    20.61     5.94P    2.00R    0.10  
Blackpool            13   22   +6       2.56    69.18     3.61    68.54     9.02     8.07     1.05     3.70    30.07     9.76P    1.11R    0.05  
Charlton             14   22   +3       1.44    60.74     1.05    70.48     9.03     9.76     1.60     5.42    38.00    13.39P    0.71R    0.02  
Walsall              14   22   -2       4.06    77.92    -0.19    61.66     8.70    -8.14     0.13     0.54     9.37     2.15P    6.09R    0.46  
Fleetwood_Town       15   20   +7      -1.63    38.96     5.48    66.43     8.73    12.75     0.51     2.12    22.93     7.24P    1.70R    0.07  
Wycombe              15   18   -1       0.27    53.02     3.36    53.36     8.72   -12.47     0.01     0.06     1.63     0.38P   26.50R    4.20  
Burton_Albion        14   18   -1      -1.76    38.12    -1.79    60.30     9.15    -3.30     0.13     0.55     8.63     2.43P    8.35R    0.76  
Scunthorpe           15   17   -8      -3.79    25.57    -8.02    62.07     8.91    -4.55     0.12     0.62    10.75     2.99P    6.08R    0.57  
Rochdale             15   16  -10      -1.77    38.66    -5.27    54.27     8.73   -17.11     0.01     0.08     1.91     0.43P   24.40R    3.79  
Shrewsbury           15   15   -2      -5.37    16.36    -1.99    59.64     8.61     1.35     0.08     0.30     6.42     1.87P    8.26R    0.74  
Bristol_Rovers       15   14   -2      -5.91    14.03    -1.14    52.17     8.52    -8.26     0.01     0.02     1.06     0.23P   29.52R    4.89  
Gillingham           14   12   -9      -4.28    21.39    -4.15    50.17     8.93   -18.34     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.19P   40.77R    9.21  
Oxford_Utd           15   11  -10      -7.25     8.83    -6.29    49.20     8.68   -16.72     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.08P   44.17R   10.34  
AFC_Wimbledon        15   11  -12      -5.15    16.26    -5.83    44.05     8.17   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   68.75R   24.71  
Plymouth             15   10  -12      -7.33     8.30    -7.08    44.96     8.46   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   64.05R   21.79  
Bradford             15   10  -14      -7.46     7.88    -9.43    46.36     8.56   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P   57.93R   17.79  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 October 2018, Bury 1 1 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     15   33  +17       7.43    91.23     9.56    84.27     8.62    30.18    30.46    67.50    92.98    74.18P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          15   30  +10       3.98    76.06     2.12    84.35     8.70    27.27    29.86    66.82    92.86    74.62P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           15   29  +12       4.01    76.30     5.38    80.54     8.62    25.54    16.40    50.20    85.87    60.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   15   28   -3       8.84    94.68    -0.78    66.48     8.55    -9.11     0.76     5.11    26.99     8.36P    0.20R    0.03  
Colchester       15   25  +13       0.30    51.93     6.86    75.31     8.69    24.83     6.89    28.49    69.62    39.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     15   24   +9       3.69    75.05     9.40    63.50     8.51     4.53     0.34     2.89    18.84     5.62P    0.48R    0.03  
Tranmere         15   24   +3       4.55    79.87     4.31    64.14     8.76     0.01     0.41     3.50    20.64     6.72P    0.45R    0.04  
Bury             15   23   +8      -1.57    38.94     1.97    74.64     8.97    21.76     6.01    25.76    66.43    37.55P    0.03R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     15   23   +3       3.09    71.43     4.05    64.72     8.57     1.87     0.44     3.45    22.33     7.14P    0.36R    0.05  
Stevenage        15   22   +2       0.21    51.89     0.17    62.92     8.48     0.10     0.25     2.31    16.65     5.36P    0.52R    0.04  
Mansfield        13   20   +8      -0.61    45.26     3.91    72.95     8.95    19.42     4.43    19.84    58.85    30.94P    0.05R    0.00  
Oldham           14   20   +5      -3.43    25.96    -1.30    70.86     9.14    15.36     2.86    14.68    49.43    25.18P    0.10R    0.02  
Carlisle         15   20   -3      -1.08    42.70    -3.77    62.95     8.64    -2.10     0.23     2.22    16.93     5.49P    0.71R    0.07  
Yeovil           14   18   +5      -0.09    50.17     6.61    62.14     8.82     5.44     0.24     2.19    16.00     4.99P    0.99R    0.13  
Swindon          15   18   -3      -3.23    28.33    -4.04    63.21     8.71     1.02     0.24     2.47    18.16     6.12P    0.65R    0.06  
Port_Vale        15   18   -5      -0.27    48.87    -1.95    58.26     8.44    -7.94     0.04     0.59     6.65     1.78P    2.47R    0.32  
Crewe            14   16   +0      -2.24    34.08     1.36    57.98     8.82    -2.61     0.05     0.80     7.31     2.05P    2.75R    0.37  
Northampton      15   15   -4      -6.03    14.36    -4.74    58.46     8.98    -2.41     0.11     0.90     8.54     2.90P    2.76R    0.38  
Grimsby          14   15   -8      -0.23    49.29    -2.57    50.09     8.31   -20.00     0.00     0.04     0.88     0.19P   15.24R    2.70  
Morecambe        15   13  -13      -2.81    30.57    -6.13    45.36     8.04   -28.01     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   32.84R    7.68  
Cambridge_Utd    15   12  -13      -5.45    15.54    -8.50    51.03     8.44   -17.94     0.00     0.05     1.20     0.29P   12.82R    2.58  
Notts_County     14   12  -15      -4.95    17.62   -11.19    52.92     8.87   -19.81     0.00     0.17     2.26     0.54P   10.31R    1.90  
Cheltenham       14   10  -11      -5.78    12.97    -5.85    47.10     8.65   -21.11     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.08P   25.47R    5.88  
Macclesfield     15    7  -17      -5.85    11.83    -4.90    31.39     7.70   -46.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.76R   77.72  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       16   34  +18       8.53    92.37    12.68    80.29     9.02    25.92    16.58    66.44    27.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham            16   34  +13       8.65    94.08     8.00    80.03     8.11    20.53    13.09    65.98    26.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      16   33  +19       5.37    82.74    10.72    84.73     8.33    34.92    31.99    84.38    47.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     16   33  +15       8.95    93.13    11.72    80.09     9.19    24.06    15.93    65.62    27.14P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   31   +6      10.26    96.44     7.55    71.21     8.32     5.11     1.91    24.39     5.73P    0.17R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          16   29  +15       1.89    62.73     7.22    78.76     8.38    27.71    11.44    61.89    26.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          16   29   +8       4.05    75.94     3.48    73.16     8.25    12.78     3.04    33.49    10.30P    0.09R    0.00  
Hartlepool         16   28   +4       4.70    79.55     1.86    69.16     8.20     4.72     0.97    17.87     4.55P    0.40R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.49    78.99     1.54    71.46     8.64     7.71     2.24    26.84     7.53P    0.29R    0.00  
Eastleigh          16   23   -5       3.36    73.02    -1.82    60.68     8.25    -9.78     0.08     2.91     0.56P    5.58R    0.09  
Boreham_Wood       16   22   -1      -0.94    43.95    -2.74    63.70     8.19     0.46     0.19     6.21     1.51P    2.18R    0.02  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.25    34.31    -7.56    71.25     8.81     7.88     2.14    26.71     9.65P    0.34R    0.00  
Barrow             16   21   +1      -0.70    45.81     1.16    59.33     8.22    -2.61     0.04     2.33     0.51P    6.49R    0.10  
Halifax            16   21   +0       1.85    63.71     3.55    57.83     8.06    -5.47     0.03     1.37     0.29P    9.37R    0.19  
Bromley            16   20   -3      -2.22    35.27    -3.44    61.39     8.48    -2.67     0.10     4.04     0.95P    4.82R    0.07  
Aldershot          16   20   -6      -2.12    36.07    -6.56    61.49     8.30    -5.02     0.09     3.75     0.94P    4.42R    0.09  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   18   -3      -2.99    30.28    -1.98    59.85     8.34    -1.62     0.07     2.63     0.67P    6.48R    0.14  
Maidenhead         16   17   -6      -2.38    34.49    -2.09    53.22     8.40   -13.74     0.00     0.48     0.10P   23.97R    1.00  
Chesterfield       16   14   -6      -9.75     4.29    -8.88    58.83     8.69    -0.30     0.05     2.53     0.80P    8.49R    0.23  
Maidstone_United   16   14  -10      -3.07    29.59    -3.22    47.05     7.95   -21.14     0.00     0.03     0.00P   52.14R    4.36  
Havant_&_Wville    16   11  -12      -4.00    24.43    -0.96    40.40     8.40   -30.88     0.00     0.01     0.00    79.63R   19.25  
Dag_&_Red          16    9  -12     -12.10     1.19   -11.01    47.60     8.37   -15.65     0.00     0.08     0.03P   47.85R    4.30  
Dover_Athletic     16    8  -19     -11.20     1.69   -14.85    47.18     8.44   -21.70     0.00     0.04     0.00P   50.95R    5.48  
Braintree_Town     16    7  -17      -6.70     9.13    -4.37    32.25     7.86   -41.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.30R   64.68