Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 26 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 October 2018, Arsenal 3 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   23  +23       1.25    63.21     4.67    90.87     6.82    74.13    67.76    87.65    95.53    98.69    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   23  +13       5.69    93.91     4.91    83.26     7.61    47.03    17.52    51.90    74.46    88.48    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   21  +13       3.14    77.88     4.27    77.37     7.73    39.75     5.29    20.99    44.11    68.57    97.27     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   21  +11       3.79    82.68     2.70    75.25     7.96    34.92     3.32    14.95    32.98    56.36    95.01     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         9   21   +9       2.50    73.42    -1.14    77.83     7.79    36.00     5.83    22.48    46.01    69.16    97.22     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       9   17   +4       4.52    86.14     4.12    51.55     7.99    -7.01     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.50     7.38     0.89R    0.06  
Watford           9   16   +1       5.46    91.14     4.15    48.85     7.78   -12.32     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     3.50     1.85R    0.14  
Everton           9   15   +3       0.84    57.96     0.47    52.53     8.07    -2.07     0.00     0.03     0.15     0.59     9.46     0.63R    0.03  
Wolverhampton     9   15   +1       4.44    86.45     3.92    48.95     8.11    -8.87     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.24     4.37     2.00R    0.13  
Man_Utd           9   14   -1      -2.21    29.14    -6.72    66.81     7.94    19.14     0.27     1.94     6.44    16.65    75.22     0.00R    0.00  
Leicester         9   12   +0       0.12    51.80     1.27    51.90     8.24    -1.88     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.56     8.25     0.98R    0.05  
Brighton          9   11   -3       1.93    70.92     2.52    44.33     7.75   -13.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.12     6.06R    0.62  
Burnley           9    8   -7      -3.17    21.47    -4.82    39.69     7.65   -19.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28    16.49R    2.23  
West_Ham          9    7   -6      -1.73    34.03     0.39    43.05     8.05   -13.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.89     9.46R    1.33  
Crystal_Palace    9    7   -6      -4.26    14.63    -4.37    38.00     7.60   -21.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    22.39R    3.76  
Southampton       9    6   -8      -3.97    15.42    -4.39    38.78     7.67   -19.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23    20.05R    3.45  
Cardiff           9    5  -11      -2.88    22.23    -2.52    31.60     7.69   -33.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    56.10R   17.56  
Fulham            9    5  -14      -2.81    23.81    -3.74    31.07     7.87   -42.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    59.64R   22.08  
Huddersfield      9    3  -14      -3.10    16.84    -2.93    26.35     6.92   -40.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.23R   44.36  
Newcastle         9    2   -8      -7.16     1.72    -2.77    37.92     7.83   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    22.22R    4.20  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 October 2018, Bolton 0 3 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    14   26  +14       4.27    78.66    10.13    75.92     8.91    23.00    12.77    25.69    64.78    34.89P    0.05R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   14   26   +9       2.24    66.52     2.40    79.58     8.60    23.03    21.25    39.18    78.87    51.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       14   26   +7       5.22    83.39     4.65    73.96     8.99    13.02     8.65    18.28    54.83    26.17P    0.08R    0.00  
West_Brom       14   24  +10      -0.88    42.76     0.94    80.54     9.17    29.87    28.12    45.61    80.63    56.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           14   24   +6       0.63    54.49    -0.10    74.43     8.80    15.92     8.95    19.52    57.49    29.92P    0.06R    0.00  
Norwich         14   24   +2       5.20    83.29     2.61    69.39     8.81     4.09     2.83     7.36    34.16    12.47P    0.57R    0.05  
Nott'm_Forest   14   22   +6       3.18    72.90     6.60    64.06     8.82     3.06     0.91     2.52    16.58     5.20P    2.01R    0.25  
Bristol_City    14   22   +4       1.94    64.39     2.80    68.32     8.82     7.59     2.41     6.25    30.51    11.36P    0.58R    0.06  
Blackburn       14   21   -2       2.45    68.00    -1.06    63.45     9.04    -4.24     0.87     2.48    14.74     4.80P    2.73R    0.37  
Swansea         14   20   +4      -2.16    34.20    -0.48    71.69     9.07    15.44     5.76    13.08    46.15    22.82P    0.25R    0.02  
Birmingham      14   20   +3       3.68    77.12     7.04    56.58     8.39    -7.05     0.07     0.28     3.26     0.69P    9.82R    1.53  
Wigan           14   20   -2       0.10    51.15    -3.16    66.25     9.11     1.62     1.81     4.56    23.32     9.01P    1.33R    0.16  
QPR             14   20   -5       3.35    74.32    -0.97    57.43     8.52   -15.14     0.10     0.36     4.13     0.98P    9.31R    1.54  
Sheff_Wed       14   19   -3       0.37    53.38    -2.09    63.32     8.86    -2.53     0.72     2.02    14.46     4.67P    2.62R    0.35  
Brentford       14   18   +4      -3.32    26.93     0.85    65.71     8.99     9.64     1.59     4.09    22.79     8.68P    1.33R    0.13  
Aston_Villa     14   18   +0      -3.87    23.68    -4.06    66.65     8.82     7.12     1.80     4.67    24.76     9.87P    0.96R    0.10  
Stoke           14   17   -2      -3.94    23.47    -4.50    65.03     9.19     4.39     1.22     3.43    20.49     8.05P    2.03R    0.26  
Bolton          14   16   -8       2.17    68.27     0.05    46.34     7.93   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   50.34R   16.57  
Preston         14   13   -5      -5.48    14.86    -3.72    57.41     8.85    -4.48     0.11     0.38     4.67     1.34P    9.40R    1.69  
Millwall        14   13   -7      -3.96    22.92    -3.73    54.27     8.67   -10.92     0.04     0.15     1.98     0.50P   16.81R    3.47  
Rotherham       14   13  -10      -0.58    47.07    -1.11    43.23     8.38   -31.58     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   64.84R   30.72  
Reading         14   12   -4      -4.61    19.02     0.50    48.68     8.63   -15.53     0.01     0.04     0.49     0.13P   36.84R   11.62  
Hull            14    9  -10      -8.21     5.46    -6.83    49.39     8.75   -15.82     0.01     0.02     0.60     0.17P   34.31R   10.11  
Ipswich         14    9  -11      -7.27     7.05    -6.74    45.24     8.45   -22.53     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.04P   53.69R   20.98  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 October 2018, Blackpool 1 0 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           15   34  +13      10.09    96.64     8.09    81.08     8.77    19.63    13.65    31.24    80.82    42.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         15   30  +11       6.39    86.60     6.48    81.67     8.96    24.95    15.30    34.63    82.98    46.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland           14   29  +14       3.00    70.40     3.58    88.22     9.19    37.40    43.60    65.27    94.60    74.98P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   15   26   +2       6.75    88.28     3.87    65.04     8.90    -3.18     0.43     1.56    17.12     4.43P    2.75R    0.15  
Barnsley             14   25  +13      -0.60    44.87     3.26    82.14     9.31    33.08    19.13    39.39    83.62    54.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                15   25   +6       3.37    71.79     4.58    72.86     9.22    13.86     2.89     9.00    48.90    18.29P    0.44R    0.02  
Doncaster            15   25   +4       3.97    76.34     3.38    68.25     8.65     4.96     0.72     2.91    27.68     8.16P    0.98R    0.04  
Coventry             15   24   +1       5.21    82.73     3.37    62.10     8.67    -4.90     0.15     0.65    10.02     2.33P    5.01R    0.29  
Southend             15   23   +3       1.22    58.73     1.26    65.96     8.72     3.44     0.46     1.76    20.47     5.87P    1.92R    0.07  
Blackpool            13   22   +6       2.63    69.56     3.69    68.39     9.05     7.91     1.06     3.68    29.83     9.84P    1.23R    0.05  
Charlton             14   22   +3       1.35    59.99     0.94    70.66     9.01    10.01     1.63     5.58    38.81    13.80P    0.68R    0.03  
Walsall              14   22   -2       4.00    77.64    -0.33    61.90     8.76    -7.82     0.15     0.60     9.96     2.32P    5.72R    0.38  
Fleetwood_Town       15   20   +7      -1.66    38.56     5.45    66.38     8.79    12.74     0.47     2.01    23.24     7.31P    1.80R    0.09  
Wycombe              15   18   -1       0.28    53.09     3.36    53.46     8.73   -12.34     0.02     0.06     1.66     0.31P   26.39R    4.23  
Burton_Albion        14   18   -1      -1.79    37.73    -1.85    60.29     9.21    -3.36     0.13     0.56     8.84     2.50P    8.47R    0.83  
Scunthorpe           15   17   -8      -3.74    26.14    -7.95    62.08     9.00    -4.51     0.14     0.73    10.83     3.22P    6.20R    0.64  
Rochdale             15   16  -10      -1.71    38.90    -5.21    54.09     8.72   -17.37     0.01     0.05     1.83     0.39P   24.68R    3.93  
Shrewsbury           15   15   -2      -5.38    16.54    -1.99    59.68     8.51     1.43     0.05     0.26     6.11     1.74P    7.76R    0.71  
Bristol_Rovers       15   14   -2      -5.88    14.27    -1.09    52.04     8.50    -8.45     0.00     0.02     1.09     0.28P   30.32R    4.87  
Gillingham           14   12   -9      -4.23    21.63    -4.07    50.09     8.86   -18.51     0.00     0.02     0.75     0.16P   40.94R    9.39  
Oxford_Utd           15   11  -10      -7.22     8.91    -6.25    49.19     8.72   -16.76     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.11P   44.16R   10.34  
AFC_Wimbledon        15   11  -12      -5.24    15.96    -5.95    44.12     8.20   -25.20     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   68.61R   24.61  
Plymouth             15   10  -12      -7.39     8.21    -7.16    44.97     8.44   -23.60     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   64.14R   21.67  
Bradford             15   10  -14      -7.46     7.84    -9.45    46.37     8.51   -23.39     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.04P   57.77R   17.64  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 October 2018, Bury 1 1 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     15   33  +17       7.49    91.41     9.64    84.31     8.55    30.22    30.25    67.79    93.14    74.44P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          15   30  +10       3.98    76.05     2.10    84.45     8.70    27.37    30.56    67.55    93.05    75.36P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           15   29  +12       3.97    76.26     5.34    80.52     8.56    25.50    16.36    50.33    85.83    60.03P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   15   28   -3       8.84    94.52    -0.86    66.38     8.58    -9.22     0.68     4.91    27.14     8.29P    0.22R    0.01  
Colchester       15   25  +13       0.36    52.31     6.94    75.13     8.69    24.49     6.78    27.37    69.00    38.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     15   24   +9       3.54    74.14     9.20    63.72     8.54     4.85     0.35     3.06    19.73     6.04P    0.39R    0.04  
Tranmere         15   24   +3       4.51    79.43     4.27    64.20     8.78     0.06     0.51     3.43    20.88     6.68P    0.49R    0.03  
Bury             15   23   +8      -1.46    39.61     2.16    74.44     8.86    21.42     5.57    24.88    65.58    36.68P    0.03R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     15   23   +3       3.06    71.32     4.02    64.68     8.59     1.85     0.42     3.58    22.15     7.14P    0.37R    0.04  
Stevenage        15   22   +2       0.24    51.94     0.20    62.83     8.47    -0.01     0.22     2.11    16.25     5.05P    0.61R    0.05  
Mansfield        13   20   +8      -0.69    44.70     3.80    73.12     8.89    19.64     4.34    20.17    59.80    31.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Oldham           14   20   +5      -3.50    25.68    -1.39    71.10     9.17    15.65     3.03    15.51    50.44    26.29P    0.08R    0.01  
Carlisle         15   20   -3      -1.09    42.56    -3.78    63.00     8.71    -2.01     0.27     2.55    17.00     5.63P    0.67R    0.06  
Yeovil           14   18   +5       0.12    51.73     6.91    61.85     8.85     5.00     0.21     1.98    15.24     4.64P    1.10R    0.14  
Swindon          15   18   -3      -3.16    28.74    -3.97    63.11     8.69     0.90     0.28     2.41    17.82     6.00P    0.71R    0.09  
Port_Vale        15   18   -5      -0.28    48.88    -1.96    58.21     8.38    -8.03     0.03     0.54     6.51     1.62P    2.45R    0.33  
Crewe            14   16   +0      -2.30    33.75     1.27    58.01     8.75    -2.57     0.07     0.66     7.18     2.07P    2.69R    0.35  
Northampton      15   15   -4      -6.05    14.00    -4.77    58.53     8.99    -2.34     0.07     0.91     8.56     2.89P    2.80R    0.35  
Grimsby          14   15   -8      -0.32    48.94    -2.69    50.27     8.32   -19.73     0.00     0.04     0.90     0.16P   14.46R    2.75  
Morecambe        15   13  -13      -2.84    30.23    -6.15    45.43     8.06   -27.87     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.03P   32.93R    7.66  
Cambridge_Utd    15   12  -13      -5.28    16.43    -8.24    50.71     8.48   -18.43     0.00     0.06     1.07     0.23P   13.75R    2.93  
Notts_County     14   12  -15      -4.99    17.27   -11.26    52.96     8.83   -19.79     0.01     0.12     2.19     0.54P   10.09R    1.85  
Cheltenham       14   10  -11      -5.76    12.79    -5.84    47.11     8.59   -21.05     0.00     0.02     0.41     0.07P   25.42R    5.92  
Macclesfield     15    7  -17      -5.88    11.51    -4.98    31.60     7.66   -45.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.69R   77.39  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       16   34  +18       8.41    91.91    12.46    80.63     9.16    26.44    17.86    67.71    29.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            16   34  +13       8.74    94.10     8.12    79.87     8.11    20.26    12.47    65.36    25.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      16   33  +19       5.29    82.26    10.61    84.78     8.33    34.98    32.09    84.63    48.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     16   33  +15       9.07    93.16    11.93    79.73     9.24    23.54    15.45    63.83    26.33P    0.04R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   31   +6      10.23    96.27     7.55    71.16     8.28     5.00     1.87    24.44     5.50P    0.22R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          16   29  +15       1.89    62.76     7.20    78.68     8.34    27.63    10.99    61.76    26.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          16   29   +8       4.02    75.67     3.41    73.28     8.31    12.94     3.24    34.23    10.39P    0.08R    0.00  
Hartlepool         16   28   +4       4.79    80.10     2.02    68.99     8.18     4.49     0.94    17.15     4.44P    0.36R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.55    79.45     1.60    71.50     8.57     7.74     2.18    27.06     7.56P    0.29R    0.00  
Eastleigh          16   23   -5       3.37    73.11    -1.77    60.57     8.15    -9.91     0.06     2.73     0.49P    5.64R    0.08  
Boreham_Wood       16   22   -1      -0.94    43.72    -2.75    63.76     8.24     0.50     0.18     6.46     1.66P    2.30R    0.03  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.24    34.45    -7.57    71.27     8.78     7.92     2.23    27.19     9.70P    0.36R    0.01  
Barrow             16   21   +1      -0.72    45.70     1.15    59.49     8.28    -2.39     0.07     2.52     0.58P    6.55R    0.09  
Halifax            16   21   +0       1.83    63.83     3.56    57.91     8.09    -5.38     0.03     1.52     0.28P    9.11R    0.13  
Bromley            16   20   -3      -2.15    36.03    -3.38    61.37     8.43    -2.73     0.15     4.12     1.03P    4.81R    0.10  
Aldershot          16   20   -6      -2.17    35.85    -6.61    61.52     8.22    -5.02     0.08     3.67     0.87P    4.21R    0.09  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   18   -3      -2.98    30.32    -1.95    59.86     8.32    -1.62     0.06     2.64     0.62P    6.41R    0.17  
Maidenhead         16   17   -6      -2.32    34.80    -2.05    53.18     8.28   -13.82     0.00     0.41     0.07P   24.06R    0.99  
Chesterfield       16   14   -6      -9.73     4.42    -8.84    58.76     8.65    -0.36     0.06     2.42     0.82P    8.54R    0.29  
Maidstone_United   16   14  -10      -3.09    29.17    -3.23    46.88     7.80   -21.30     0.00     0.03     0.00P   53.40R    4.39  
Havant_&_Wville    16   11  -12      -4.11    23.60    -1.14    40.57     8.35   -30.56     0.00     0.01     0.00P   79.06R   18.44  
Dag_&_Red          16    9  -12     -12.19     1.09   -11.11    47.65     8.34   -15.59     0.00     0.06     0.01P   47.69R    4.32  
Dover_Athletic     16    8  -19     -11.23     1.60   -14.91    47.30     8.34   -21.55     0.00     0.04     0.01P   50.53R    5.04  
Braintree_Town     16    7  -17      -6.67     8.97    -4.31    32.26     7.84   -41.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.29R   65.85