Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 25 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 October 2018, Arsenal 3 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   23  +23       1.28    63.72     4.73    90.82     6.85    74.05    67.45    87.62    95.33    98.64    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   23  +13       5.68    93.76     4.92    83.20     7.65    46.91    17.21    51.44    74.26    88.43    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   21  +13       3.10    77.66     4.20    77.43     7.82    39.85     5.77    21.69    44.86    69.02    97.22     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   21  +11       3.82    82.99     2.75    75.23     8.04    34.90     3.28    14.98    33.28    56.36    95.04     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         9   21   +9       2.51    73.52    -1.09    77.76     7.81    35.89     6.02    22.28    45.38    68.86    97.18     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       9   17   +4       4.43    85.63     4.00    51.74     8.00    -6.70     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.57     7.83     0.80R    0.04  
Watford           9   16   +1       5.46    91.05     4.12    48.84     7.78   -12.34     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17     3.73     1.84R    0.11  
Everton           9   15   +3       0.93    59.07     0.60    52.40     8.02    -2.28     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.68     9.27     0.66R    0.03  
Wolverhampton     9   15   +1       4.43    86.39     3.91    48.99     8.10    -8.87     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.24     4.38     2.07R    0.16  
Man_Utd           9   14   -1      -2.14    29.52    -6.62    66.57     7.96    18.69     0.25     1.92     6.38    16.37    74.28     0.00R    0.00  
Leicester         9   12   +0       0.02    50.75     1.07    52.09     8.24    -1.55     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.60     8.82     0.99R    0.06  
Brighton          9   11   -3       1.98    71.30     2.59    44.12     7.74   -13.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.13     6.30R    0.68  
Burnley           9    8   -7      -3.21    21.01    -4.89    39.81     7.65   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.28    15.86R    2.13  
West_Ham          9    7   -6      -1.68    34.43     0.46    42.86     8.06   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.82     9.87R    1.47  
Crystal_Palace    9    7   -6      -4.26    14.53    -4.35    38.00     7.58   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    22.55R    3.71  
Southampton       9    6   -8      -4.00    15.46    -4.40    38.96     7.68   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21    19.76R    3.37  
Cardiff           9    5  -11      -2.86    22.31    -2.51    31.62     7.66   -33.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    56.28R   17.56  
Fulham            9    5  -14      -2.83    23.92    -3.84    31.11     7.91   -41.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    59.54R   21.99  
Huddersfield      9    3  -14      -3.08    17.27    -2.91    26.41     6.93   -40.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.99R   44.38  
Newcastle         9    2   -8      -7.15     1.72    -2.76    37.90     7.86   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19    22.48R    4.30  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 October 2018, Bolton 0 3 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    14   26  +14       4.33    79.14    10.16    75.92     8.88    22.98    12.77    25.57    64.80    34.86P    0.05R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   14   26   +9       2.22    66.16     2.39    79.60     8.57    23.07    21.32    39.46    78.77    51.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       14   26   +7       5.15    83.05     4.51    73.93     8.93    13.00     8.44    17.97    54.97    25.82P    0.08R    0.01  
West_Brom       14   24  +10      -0.87    43.24     0.96    80.57     9.26    29.86    28.81    45.94    80.67    56.66P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           14   24   +6       0.62    54.58    -0.13    74.47     8.73    16.01     8.89    19.47    57.73    30.01P    0.06R    0.00  
Norwich         14   24   +2       5.13    82.80     2.54    69.58     8.86     4.37     3.07     7.90    34.99    13.21P    0.47R    0.04  
Nott'm_Forest   14   22   +6       3.23    73.38     6.62    64.07     8.80     3.02     0.98     2.63    16.46     5.27P    2.03R    0.23  
Bristol_City    14   22   +4       1.94    64.42     2.79    68.31     8.84     7.61     2.36     6.23    30.74    11.67P    0.66R    0.04  
Blackburn       14   21   -2       2.42    67.67    -1.07    63.45     9.11    -4.25     0.84     2.44    14.91     4.89P    2.87R    0.38  
Swansea         14   20   +4      -2.11    34.64    -0.36    71.47     8.91    15.15     5.08    12.20    45.09    21.90P    0.27R    0.03  
Birmingham      14   20   +3       3.70    77.16     7.06    56.62     8.36    -7.02     0.07     0.27     3.42     0.73P    9.57R    1.39  
Wigan           14   20   -2       0.08    51.09    -3.16    66.12     9.01     1.58     1.60     4.22    22.73     8.66P    1.37R    0.11  
QPR             14   20   -5       3.30    73.95    -1.08    57.53     8.56   -14.98     0.13     0.40     4.21     1.03P    9.12R    1.52  
Sheff_Wed       14   19   -3       0.30    52.93    -2.17    63.46     8.78    -2.30     0.67     2.11    14.54     4.64P    2.37R    0.26  
Brentford       14   18   +4      -3.35    26.55     0.78    65.90     9.00     9.98     1.67     4.37    23.32     9.12P    1.37R    0.15  
Aston_Villa     14   18   +0      -3.85    23.81    -4.03    66.61     8.82     7.04     1.82     4.66    24.46    10.04P    1.00R    0.11  
Stoke           14   17   -2      -3.93    23.34    -4.46    64.93     9.19     4.22     1.35     3.58    20.09     8.06P    1.96R    0.26  
Bolton          14   16   -8       2.18    68.19     0.05    46.39     7.96   -27.95     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.03P   49.93R   17.04  
Preston         14   13   -5      -5.46    14.92    -3.68    57.30     8.89    -4.63     0.10     0.40     4.77     1.35P    9.84R    1.85  
Millwall        14   13   -7      -3.90    23.23    -3.63    54.15     8.63   -11.10     0.02     0.10     1.93     0.42P   16.88R    3.64  
Rotherham       14   13  -10      -0.67    46.37    -1.29    43.51     8.45   -31.21     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.02P   63.58R   29.61  
Reading         14   12   -4      -4.60    19.10     0.53    48.62     8.59   -15.57     0.01     0.03     0.53     0.14P   37.28R   11.73  
Hull            14    9  -10      -8.01     5.83    -6.53    48.99     8.76   -16.56     0.01     0.02     0.50     0.10P   36.05R   11.12  
Ipswich         14    9  -11      -7.33     7.04    -6.79    45.40     8.47   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   53.17R   20.48  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 October 2018, Blackpool 1 0 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           15   34  +13      10.17    96.66     8.20    81.01     8.76    19.53    13.32    31.21    80.62    42.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough         15   30  +11       6.28    86.31     6.29    81.81     8.97    25.16    15.89    35.35    83.35    47.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Sunderland           14   29  +14       3.01    70.36     3.66    88.13     9.22    37.23    43.50    64.94    94.45    74.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   15   26   +2       6.77    88.48     3.88    64.93     8.89    -3.29     0.43     1.57    16.94     4.41P    2.73R    0.13  
Barnsley             14   25  +13      -0.53    45.50     3.34    82.07     9.20    32.88    18.83    38.73    83.82    54.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Luton                15   25   +6       3.38    71.98     4.59    72.84     9.21    13.86     2.84     8.86    48.97    18.33P    0.39R    0.02  
Doncaster            15   25   +4       3.94    75.86     3.33    68.36     8.76     5.13     0.83     3.18    28.27     8.42P    1.06R    0.03  
Coventry             15   24   +1       5.11    82.10     3.23    62.26     8.74    -4.67     0.18     0.70    10.82     2.54P    5.12R    0.33  
Southend             15   23   +3       1.22    58.63     1.24    66.07     8.76     3.57     0.56     2.05    20.75     6.25P    1.89R    0.11  
Blackpool            13   22   +6       2.64    70.03     3.71    68.34     9.04     7.88     1.08     3.75    29.57     9.55P    1.12R    0.05  
Charlton             14   22   +3       1.36    60.11     0.92    70.62     9.03     9.91     1.59     5.49    38.72    13.55P    0.62R    0.02  
Walsall              14   22   -2       3.99    77.63    -0.33    61.91     8.69    -7.75     0.16     0.68     9.58     2.25P    5.50R    0.37  
Fleetwood_Town       15   20   +7      -1.58    39.10     5.56    66.37     8.71    12.70     0.47     1.92    22.81     7.06P    1.56R    0.09  
Wycombe              15   18   -1       0.29    53.05     3.41    53.27     8.72   -12.65     0.01     0.06     1.61     0.29P   26.81R    4.35  
Burton_Albion        14   18   -1      -1.82    37.47    -1.94    60.43     9.20    -3.14     0.13     0.60     8.84     2.53P    8.31R    0.78  
Scunthorpe           15   17   -8      -3.78    25.76    -8.02    62.05     8.94    -4.54     0.14     0.60    10.48     3.11P    6.13R    0.54  
Rochdale             15   16  -10      -1.74    38.57    -5.25    54.27     8.69   -17.15     0.00     0.05     1.87     0.38P   24.04R    3.67  
Shrewsbury           15   15   -2      -5.35    16.68    -1.92    59.57     8.59     1.25     0.04     0.23     6.02     1.71P    8.42R    0.78  
Bristol_Rovers       15   14   -2      -5.89    14.31    -1.14    52.14     8.46    -8.28     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.25P   29.65R    4.60  
Gillingham           14   12   -9      -4.28    21.16    -4.14    50.28     8.86   -18.20     0.00     0.01     0.77     0.15P   40.31R    8.98  
Oxford_Utd           15   11  -10      -7.15     9.21    -6.15    49.00     8.66   -17.08     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.08P   45.00R   10.75  
AFC_Wimbledon        15   11  -12      -5.23    15.80    -5.93    44.17     8.13   -25.16     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   68.68R   24.30  
Plymouth             15   10  -12      -7.36     8.13    -7.12    44.90     8.40   -23.67     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   64.39R   22.03  
Bradford             15   10  -14      -7.47     7.98    -9.42    46.29     8.57   -23.51     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   58.23R   18.06  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 October 2018, Bury 1 1 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     15   33  +17       7.46    91.17     9.57    84.26     8.63    30.14    29.99    66.98    93.11    73.83P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          15   30  +10       3.96    76.10     2.10    84.53     8.69    27.46    30.72    67.65    93.13    75.71P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           15   29  +12       4.01    76.21     5.38    80.52     8.63    25.51    16.39    50.44    85.90    60.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   15   28   -3       8.77    94.53    -0.94    66.51     8.57    -9.06     0.75     5.00    27.21     8.36P    0.26R    0.01  
Colchester       15   25  +13       0.34    52.16     6.94    75.07     8.63    24.50     6.37    27.09    68.90    38.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     15   24   +9       3.66    74.86     9.37    63.57     8.55     4.60     0.39     2.94    19.12     5.79P    0.44R    0.03  
Tranmere         15   24   +3       4.51    79.58     4.30    64.22     8.74     0.13     0.44     3.44    20.73     6.69P    0.46R    0.05  
Bury             15   23   +8      -1.63    38.64     1.87    74.75     8.99    21.95     6.11    26.27    66.42    38.16P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     15   23   +3       3.12    71.47     4.15    64.42     8.63     1.47     0.40     3.26    21.25     6.58P    0.44R    0.06  
Stevenage        15   22   +2       0.07    50.75    -0.02    63.00     8.46     0.22     0.24     2.32    16.58     5.30P    0.56R    0.03  
Mansfield        13   20   +8      -0.70    44.59     3.76    73.22     8.89    19.82     4.33    20.38    60.21    31.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           14   20   +5      -3.42    26.16    -1.32    71.02     9.15    15.53     2.89    15.05    50.24    25.62P    0.07R    0.01  
Carlisle         15   20   -3      -1.03    43.09    -3.68    62.83     8.66    -2.24     0.25     2.16    16.58     5.30P    0.73R    0.07  
Yeovil           14   18   +5       0.04    50.84     6.81    61.94     8.90     5.16     0.27     2.22    15.72     4.86P    1.07R    0.13  
Swindon          15   18   -3      -3.22    28.22    -4.03    63.16     8.69     1.02     0.27     2.41    17.94     5.96P    0.69R    0.06  
Port_Vale        15   18   -5      -0.27    48.88    -1.97    58.33     8.42    -7.84     0.03     0.59     6.57     1.73P    2.48R    0.37  
Crewe            14   16   +0      -2.22    34.17     1.40    57.94     8.69    -2.68     0.05     0.62     7.18     1.93P    2.71R    0.36  
Northampton      15   15   -4      -6.02    14.29    -4.77    58.51     8.95    -2.40     0.10     0.92     8.42     2.77P    2.64R    0.35  
Grimsby          14   15   -8      -0.29    48.99    -2.66    50.28     8.25   -19.74     0.00     0.04     0.83     0.18P   14.37R    2.62  
Morecambe        15   13  -13      -2.82    30.33    -6.13    45.40     8.08   -27.92     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   33.33R    7.86  
Cambridge_Utd    15   12  -13      -5.27    16.43    -8.22    50.72     8.43   -18.44     0.00     0.05     1.02     0.23P   13.63R    2.93  
Notts_County     14   12  -15      -4.96    17.45   -11.23    52.96     8.87   -19.82     0.01     0.13     2.35     0.52P   10.02R    1.84  
Cheltenham       14   10  -11      -5.80    12.58    -5.86    47.14     8.58   -21.07     0.00     0.02     0.43     0.09P   25.09R    5.68  
Macclesfield     15    7  -17      -5.81    12.07    -4.83    31.42     7.74   -46.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.96R   77.53  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       16   34  +18       8.52    92.23    12.71    80.28     8.99    25.89    16.70    66.44    28.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            16   34  +13       8.64    93.98     7.99    79.99     8.03    20.43    12.57    66.16    26.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      16   33  +19       5.41    82.80    10.76    84.69     8.29    34.89    32.11    84.20    47.95P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     16   33  +15       9.06    93.19    11.87    79.77     9.22    23.60    15.34    63.85    26.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   31   +6      10.18    96.18     7.48    71.26     8.29     5.17     1.89    24.62     5.63P    0.20R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          16   29  +15       1.84    62.35     7.10    78.75     8.39    27.74    11.64    61.78    26.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          16   29   +8       4.03    75.88     3.48    73.16     8.27    12.77     3.19    33.71    10.57P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool         16   28   +4       4.68    79.27     1.83    69.27     8.22     4.82     1.11    18.45     4.89P    0.42R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.56    79.61     1.61    71.48     8.67     7.71     2.31    26.84     7.73P    0.37R    0.00  
Eastleigh          16   23   -5       3.41    73.33    -1.73    60.63     8.25    -9.84     0.08     2.92     0.61P    5.58R    0.08  
Boreham_Wood       16   22   -1      -0.95    43.66    -2.76    63.67     8.25     0.45     0.19     6.19     1.57P    2.42R    0.03  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.33    33.88    -7.72    71.42     8.79     8.17     2.48    27.35     9.99P    0.29R    0.00  
Barrow             16   21   +1      -0.66    46.13     1.23    59.34     8.26    -2.60     0.05     2.36     0.49P    6.69R    0.14  
Halifax            16   21   +0       1.83    63.96     3.56    57.79     8.09    -5.52     0.01     1.37     0.29P    9.45R    0.16  
Bromley            16   20   -3      -2.18    35.71    -3.37    61.30     8.55    -2.83     0.13     4.13     1.03P    5.04R    0.11  
Aldershot          16   20   -6      -2.12    36.01    -6.53    61.48     8.31    -5.09     0.08     3.78     0.90P    4.38R    0.08  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   18   -3      -2.95    30.82    -1.87    59.78     8.35    -1.71     0.05     2.60     0.62P    6.51R    0.15  
Maidenhead         16   17   -6      -2.29    35.22    -1.99    53.18     8.40   -13.80     0.00     0.46     0.09P   24.11R    1.08  
Chesterfield       16   14   -6      -9.87     4.24    -9.07    59.16     8.65     0.14     0.05     2.64     0.86P    7.70R    0.20  
Maidstone_United   16   14  -10      -3.17    28.57    -3.34    47.07     7.90   -21.04     0.00     0.03     0.00P   52.11R    4.36  
Havant_&_Wville    16   11  -12      -3.99    24.19    -0.93    40.36     8.36   -30.88     0.00     0.01     0.00    79.88R   19.21  
Dag_&_Red          16    9  -12     -12.06     1.27   -10.96    47.51     8.38   -15.78     0.00     0.07     0.02P   48.12R    4.43  
Dover_Athletic     16    8  -19     -11.26     1.58   -14.99    47.34     8.42   -21.51     0.00     0.04     0.00P   50.44R    5.20  
Braintree_Town     16    7  -17      -6.70     8.80    -4.37    32.30     7.87   -41.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.16R   64.76