Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 24 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 October 2018, Arsenal 3 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   23  +23       1.21    62.61     4.60    91.03     6.84    74.64    68.28    87.98    95.63    98.66    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   23  +13       5.64    93.59     4.84    83.26     7.66    47.08    16.95    52.02    74.37    88.43    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   21  +13       3.18    78.22     4.34    77.23     7.81    39.47     5.21    20.41    43.57    67.85    97.14     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   21  +11       3.82    82.88     2.76    75.21     8.07    34.79     3.36    14.90    33.07    56.59    94.89     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         9   21   +9       2.49    73.28    -1.14    77.90     7.81    36.09     5.97    22.69    46.55    69.92    97.33     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       9   17   +4       4.50    85.94     4.10    51.53     7.99    -7.13     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.50     7.37     0.86R    0.05  
Watford           9   16   +1       5.44    90.73     4.13    48.85     7.81   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16     3.54     1.83R    0.13  
Everton           9   15   +3       0.97    59.06     0.66    52.21     8.07    -2.65     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.54     9.00     0.72R    0.05  
Wolverhampton     9   15   +1       4.47    86.69     3.98    48.86     8.08    -9.04     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.18     4.16     2.17R    0.18  
Man_Utd           9   14   -1      -2.19    29.21    -6.69    66.72     7.88    18.91     0.23     1.93     6.36    16.52    75.29     0.00R    0.00  
Leicester         9   12   +0       0.01    50.87     1.08    52.16     8.28    -1.50     0.00     0.02     0.15     0.61     8.93     0.96R    0.05  
Brighton          9   11   -3       1.98    71.39     2.60    44.25     7.74   -13.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.18     6.06R    0.62  
Burnley           9    8   -7      -3.20    21.11    -4.86    39.84     7.66   -19.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.32    16.05R    2.12  
West_Ham          9    7   -6      -1.70    34.43     0.43    42.92     8.08   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.84     9.88R    1.40  
Crystal_Palace    9    7   -6      -4.24    14.83    -4.32    37.92     7.56   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    22.89R    3.83  
Southampton       9    6   -8      -4.00    15.39    -4.42    38.94     7.67   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.20    19.45R    3.31  
Cardiff           9    5  -11      -2.89    22.08    -2.58    31.82     7.66   -33.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    55.34R   17.02  
Fulham            9    5  -14      -2.87    23.53    -3.89    31.22     7.86   -41.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    59.08R   21.54  
Huddersfield      9    3  -14      -3.07    17.34    -2.90    26.32     6.93   -40.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.52R   45.15  
Newcastle         9    2   -8      -7.15     1.78    -2.72    37.83     7.91   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    23.21R    4.54  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 October 2018, Aston_Villa 1 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   13   25   +9       3.22    73.62     3.30    81.58     8.82    25.47    24.04    46.33    84.25    58.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       13   25   +7       5.74    86.54     4.82    74.39     9.25    13.15     7.72    18.15    57.10    26.51P    0.12R    0.01  
West_Brom       13   24  +13       0.03    49.49     3.26    84.49     9.40    36.78    41.01    60.92    89.51    70.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    13   23  +12       3.48    75.17     9.31    74.14     9.10    20.76     7.59    18.07    57.84    27.33P    0.08R    0.00  
Derby           13   21   +3      -0.53    45.65    -2.43    70.35     8.91     9.28     3.33     8.81    39.65    16.77P    0.30R    0.02  
Norwich         13   21   +1       3.77    76.95     1.93    67.21     9.06     2.30     1.44     4.59    26.99     9.19P    0.99R    0.12  
Blackburn       13   21   +0       3.00    71.92    -0.24    65.12     9.24    -1.62     1.14     3.40    20.15     6.89P    1.74R    0.17  
Wigan           13   20   -1       1.24    59.84    -2.53    67.97     9.28     3.29     2.22     5.88    30.02    11.63P    0.92R    0.10  
Nott'm_Forest   13   19   +3       2.28    68.21     4.65    61.41     9.07    -1.42     0.37     1.30    11.15     3.11P    4.41R    0.61  
Bristol_City    13   19   +3       0.87    57.00     2.60    67.26     9.12     7.54     1.60     4.89    27.91    10.07P    1.05R    0.13  
Sheff_Wed       13   19   +0       1.07    58.67    -0.12    66.72     9.02     3.61     1.30     4.16    25.34     8.69P    1.17R    0.12  
Brentford       13   18   +5      -2.17    33.80     1.44    67.35     9.16    11.07     1.99     5.47    29.02    11.36P    1.01R    0.11  
Aston_Villa     13   18   +1      -2.76    29.82    -3.42    68.48     9.03     8.83     2.26     6.43    32.47    13.38P    0.65R    0.07  
Birmingham      13   17   +2       2.42    70.29     6.53    54.71     8.57    -8.33     0.05     0.13     2.38     0.46P   14.68R    2.83  
Swansea         13   17   +2      -3.00    28.00    -1.32    69.18     9.19    12.21     2.67     7.53    35.87    15.78P    0.59R    0.06  
QPR             13   17   -8       2.21    68.15    -3.30    54.54     8.74   -20.11     0.03     0.15     2.27     0.48P   16.73R    3.69  
Stoke           13   16   -2      -3.59    24.63    -4.50    64.96     9.40     3.71     1.15     3.40    20.89     7.98P    2.15R    0.31  
Bolton          13   16   -5       2.85    73.50     1.98    48.79     8.27   -23.06     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.05P   37.86R   10.50  
Reading         13   12   -3      -3.63    23.88     0.87    50.32     8.82   -13.97     0.02     0.04     0.91     0.22P   30.22R    8.63  
Rotherham       13   12  -10      -0.75    45.76    -1.85    42.01     8.53   -34.62     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   69.65R   37.82  
Preston         13   10   -6      -6.76     8.69    -4.31    55.27     9.02    -6.10     0.06     0.22     3.34     0.89P   14.23R    3.13  
Millwall        13   10   -8      -5.31    14.26    -4.30    51.92     8.82   -12.89     0.01     0.05     1.31     0.28P   24.33R    6.19  
Hull            13    9   -9      -7.24     7.28    -6.42    50.54     8.98   -15.32     0.01     0.06     0.97     0.26P   30.01R    8.50  
Ipswich         13    9   -9      -6.70     8.26    -5.96    46.63     8.68   -20.57     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.06P   47.09R   16.88  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 October 2018, Blackpool 2 0 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           14   33  +13      10.58    97.79     8.31    81.45     9.01    19.60    14.51    32.03    81.08    43.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough         14   27  +10       5.06    81.88     5.89    80.08     9.21    23.94    11.62    27.87    77.23    40.61P    0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland           13   26  +13       1.86    63.07     3.32    86.73     9.47    36.70    35.71    58.26    91.90    69.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   14   26   +5       7.37    91.09     5.64    67.84     9.14     2.12     0.98     3.26    26.38     7.68P    1.33R    0.05  
Barnsley             13   25  +15       0.55    53.06     4.98    85.18     9.52    37.52    29.53    51.68    89.30    64.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            14   25   +5       4.77    80.77     3.47    69.72     9.01     6.01     1.38     4.59    33.65    10.48P    0.75R    0.02  
Luton                14   22   +3       2.52    67.85     2.75    69.86     9.46     8.73     1.54     5.02    35.61    12.23P    1.04R    0.06  
Walsall              13   22   +1       4.75    82.53     1.78    64.27     8.95    -3.28     0.34     1.39    15.45     4.12P    3.24R    0.19  
Charlton             13   21   +3       1.87    64.32     1.17    71.58     9.23    10.81     2.08     6.74    42.61    15.46P    0.50R    0.02  
Coventry             14   21   -1       4.12    78.50     2.05    59.08     8.80    -8.47     0.05     0.27     5.93     1.28P    9.67R    0.80  
Fleetwood_Town       14   20   +8      -0.51    46.61     6.08    68.07     9.03    14.08     0.85     3.26    29.13     9.65P    1.08R    0.04  
Southend             14   20   +0       0.24    52.18    -0.78    62.84     8.92    -1.77     0.22     0.96    12.23     3.35P    4.42R    0.35  
Blackpool            12   19   +5       1.31    60.77     3.11    66.48     9.29     6.42     0.70     2.47    23.39     7.24P    2.06R    0.12  
Burton_Albion        13   17   -1      -1.47    39.46    -1.92    60.30     9.43    -3.74     0.15     0.64     9.08     2.60P    8.57R    0.84  
Scunthorpe           14   17   -7      -2.68    31.45    -7.44    64.09     9.23    -2.53     0.28     1.22    15.80     4.71P    4.01R    0.29  
Rochdale             14   16   -7      -0.97    43.89    -3.19    57.47     9.00   -11.19     0.05     0.15     4.28     1.02P   14.31R    1.86  
Wycombe              14   15   -4      -0.53    47.36     1.58    49.51     8.84   -19.05     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.09P   42.57R    9.53  
Shrewsbury           14   12   -4      -6.78     9.67    -3.68    56.53     8.73    -2.61     0.01     0.12     3.25     0.88P   14.81R    1.71  
Gillingham           13   12   -7      -3.13    27.23    -2.54    52.49     9.12   -14.82     0.01     0.04     1.46     0.32P   30.04R    5.89  
Bristol_Rovers       14   11   -4      -7.02     8.81    -2.41    49.63     8.70   -11.65     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.15P   40.06R    8.32  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   11  -10      -4.36    19.87    -4.65    46.35     8.36   -21.94     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   57.01R   15.81  
Oxford_Utd           14   10  -10      -7.07     8.50    -6.62    48.66     8.80   -18.23     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.09P   45.49R   10.84  
Bradford             14   10  -12      -6.58     9.76    -8.19    48.74     8.73   -19.54     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.09P   45.38R   11.06  
Plymouth             14    7  -14      -8.68     3.72    -8.70    42.32     8.58   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   73.58R   32.20  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 October 2018, Bury 4 0 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     14   32  +17       8.21    94.20    10.19    85.12     8.78    30.87    31.82    68.08    93.56    74.81P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           14   28  +12       4.47    79.74     5.50    81.15     8.79    25.85    16.98    50.55    86.07    60.15P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons          14   27   +9       2.92    70.51     1.95    83.42     8.98    27.26    24.84    60.67    90.32    69.77P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   14   27   -3       8.75    95.06    -1.48    66.12     8.76   -10.37     0.66     4.65    25.46     7.73P    0.31R    0.04  
Colchester       14   25  +14       1.66    61.80     7.80    77.57     8.86    27.11     9.97    35.90    76.45    46.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         14   24   +5       5.35    84.29     5.51    66.68     8.99     3.67     0.84     5.70    28.83    10.39P    0.24R    0.04  
Bury             14   22   +8      -0.84    43.74     2.45    75.93     9.18    23.12     7.39    29.04    69.54    41.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     14   22   +3       3.32    73.56     3.89    64.70     8.71     1.18     0.41     3.31    21.32     6.65P    0.32R    0.04  
Forest_Green     14   21   +7       2.39    67.83     7.89    61.34     8.72     1.68     0.17     1.63    12.82     3.67P    0.98R    0.22  
Stevenage        14   21   +2       0.64    55.12     0.29    63.70     8.72     0.57     0.33     2.78    18.62     5.98P    0.52R    0.07  
Carlisle         14   19   -3      -0.97    43.04    -4.12    62.46     8.78    -3.33     0.22     1.94    15.18     4.87P    0.77R    0.12  
Swindon          14   18   -1      -1.98    35.84    -2.22    66.26     8.84     5.52     0.62     4.70    27.60    10.03P    0.26R    0.04  
Mansfield        12   17   +7      -1.90    35.04     3.41    71.92     9.13    19.26     3.28    15.97    52.98    26.61P    0.07R    0.01  
Yeovil           13   17   +5       0.52    54.74     7.00    62.82     9.04     5.88     0.29     2.44    17.44     5.43P    0.95R    0.18  
Oldham           13   17   +3      -4.19    20.92    -2.03    69.33     9.34    13.54     2.00    10.77    41.43    19.92P    0.18R    0.03  
Port_Vale        14   17   -5      -0.15    49.59    -2.21    58.00     8.61    -9.02     0.03     0.53     6.16     1.56P    2.76R    0.64  
Crewe            13   15   +0      -1.88    36.12     1.38    58.29     9.07    -2.74     0.09     0.84     8.07     2.34P    2.79R    0.64  
Morecambe        14   13  -12      -1.91    36.43    -5.64    46.72     8.30   -27.20     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.06P   26.37R    8.64  
Northampton      14   12   -9      -6.01    12.84    -7.33    54.68     9.07   -10.62     0.02     0.26     3.57     1.07P    6.44R    1.86  
Grimsby          13   12   -9      -1.98    35.17    -3.62    47.47     8.55   -22.66     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.05P   23.84R    7.78  
Notts_County     13   12  -14      -4.17    21.07   -11.13    53.63     9.06   -19.91     0.01     0.21     2.73     0.72P    8.90R    2.47  
Cheltenham       13   10   -9      -5.20    14.60    -5.04    48.61     8.81   -19.08     0.00     0.03     0.72     0.15P   19.80R    6.31  
Cambridge_Utd    14    9  -15      -6.82     8.78   -10.04    47.37     8.55   -23.15     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.10P   24.33R    8.77  
Macclesfield     14    7  -12      -5.92    10.93    -2.41    34.73     8.16   -37.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    80.16R   62.12  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       16   34  +18       8.41    92.03    12.49    80.62     9.09    26.36    17.90    67.74    29.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            16   34  +13       8.75    94.22     8.09    79.90     8.12    20.32    12.72    65.63    25.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      16   33  +19       5.33    82.68    10.66    84.82     8.23    35.01    32.13    84.86    48.09P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     16   33  +15       9.18    93.51    12.04    79.58     9.11    23.31    14.85    63.32    25.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   31   +6      10.09    96.17     7.37    71.29     8.25     5.20     1.80    24.88     5.72P    0.21R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          16   29  +15       1.87    62.30     7.19    78.72     8.32    27.65    11.22    61.72    26.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          16   29   +8       4.05    75.85     3.45    73.26     8.30    12.92     3.14    34.41    10.63P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool         16   28   +4       4.76    80.02     1.91    69.10     8.20     4.61     1.01    17.68     4.53P    0.45R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.52    79.08     1.57    71.39     8.62     7.61     2.17    26.34     7.58P    0.35R    0.00  
Eastleigh          16   23   -5       3.33    72.51    -1.87    60.73     8.26    -9.70     0.08     3.00     0.54P    5.55R    0.10  
Boreham_Wood       16   22   -1      -0.95    43.58    -2.77    63.73     8.27     0.53     0.21     6.38     1.68P    2.31R    0.02  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.25    34.28    -7.56    71.26     8.84     7.92     2.38    26.74     9.70P    0.42R    0.00  
Barrow             16   21   +1      -0.65    46.01     1.28    59.23     8.25    -2.75     0.07     2.31     0.51P    6.76R    0.12  
Halifax            16   21   +0       1.80    63.36     3.49    57.94     8.11    -5.32     0.02     1.44     0.24P    9.03R    0.21  
Bromley            16   20   -3      -2.23    35.41    -3.46    61.38     8.49    -2.76     0.12     4.19     0.99P    4.80R    0.10  
Aldershot          16   20   -6      -2.03    36.39    -6.41    61.25     8.26    -5.36     0.08     3.49     0.81P    4.56R    0.08  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   18   -3      -2.89    31.14    -1.81    59.72     8.33    -1.80     0.04     2.50     0.56P    6.42R    0.16  
Maidenhead         16   17   -6      -2.25    35.27    -1.91    53.18     8.33   -13.85     0.00     0.39     0.07P   24.12R    1.12  
Chesterfield       16   14   -6      -9.91     4.09    -9.09    59.22     8.69     0.23     0.06     2.80     0.90P    7.77R    0.22  
Maidstone_United   16   14  -10      -3.02    29.71    -3.12    46.89     7.94   -21.31     0.00     0.04     0.01P   53.24R    4.63  
Havant_&_Wville    16   11  -12      -4.02    24.33    -0.96    40.35     8.41   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.78R   19.79  
Dag_&_Red          16    9  -12     -12.09     1.19   -10.99    47.60     8.34   -15.68     0.00     0.08     0.02P   47.93R    4.27  
Dover_Athletic     16    8  -19     -11.32     1.54   -15.08    47.38     8.34   -21.46     0.00     0.06     0.01P   50.13R    5.11  
Braintree_Town     16    7  -17      -6.74     8.79    -4.49    32.48     7.88   -40.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.06R   64.07