Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 23 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 October 2018, Arsenal 3 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   23  +23       1.23    62.93     4.71    90.87     6.86    74.17    67.64    87.57    95.45    98.61    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   23  +13       5.65    93.69     4.91    83.15     7.66    46.80    17.47    51.25    73.86    88.28    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           9   21  +13       3.20    78.39     4.35    77.29     7.75    39.54     5.25    21.03    43.70    68.07    97.18     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   21  +11       3.74    82.50     2.58    75.34     8.00    35.13     3.41    15.44    33.90    56.92    95.14     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         9   21   +9       2.51    73.52    -1.11    77.84     7.79    35.94     5.97    22.68    46.03    69.33    97.39     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       9   17   +4       4.45    85.90     4.03    51.76     7.95    -6.70     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.48     7.65     0.85R    0.04  
Watford           9   16   +1       5.46    90.94     4.15    48.87     7.82   -12.30     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16     3.67     1.79R    0.13  
Everton           9   15   +3       0.88    58.45     0.53    52.52     8.10    -2.08     0.00     0.03     0.16     0.66     9.47     0.60R    0.02  
Wolverhampton     9   15   +1       4.49    86.67     4.01    48.73     8.08    -9.22     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.24     3.94     2.15R    0.18  
Man_Utd           9   14   -1      -2.21    29.12    -6.73    66.74     7.91    18.98     0.25     1.95     6.57    16.64    74.89     0.00R    0.00  
Leicester         9   12   +0       0.06    51.13     1.14    51.91     8.28    -1.83     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.55     8.39     1.07R    0.06  
Brighton          9   11   -3       1.98    71.49     2.56    44.24     7.77   -13.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.14     6.29R    0.64  
Burnley           9    8   -7      -3.18    21.12    -4.85    39.81     7.62   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27    15.96R    2.14  
West_Ham          9    7   -6      -1.71    34.43     0.43    42.96     8.07   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.87     9.65R    1.26  
Crystal_Palace    9    7   -6      -4.28    14.31    -4.41    37.99     7.60   -21.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17    22.49R    3.70  
Southampton       9    6   -8      -4.00    15.47    -4.42    38.88     7.69   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21    19.79R    3.47  
Cardiff           9    5  -11      -2.90    22.18    -2.61    31.83     7.76   -33.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    54.92R   16.80  
Fulham            9    5  -14      -2.79    23.91    -3.72    30.98     7.88   -42.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    60.16R   22.33  
Huddersfield      9    3  -14      -3.06    17.42    -2.85    26.29     6.94   -40.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.52R   45.01  
Newcastle         9    2   -8      -7.15     1.75    -2.72    37.92     7.89   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    22.76R    4.24  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 October 2018, Aston_Villa 1 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   13   25   +9       3.26    73.94     3.36    81.36     8.75    25.22    23.22    45.40    83.85    57.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       13   25   +7       5.74    86.92     4.85    74.47     9.18    13.25     7.81    18.16    57.30    26.75P    0.10R    0.01  
West_Brom       13   24  +13       0.02    49.24     3.22    84.53     9.40    36.89    41.55    61.33    89.64    70.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    13   23  +12       3.57    75.80     9.47    73.93     9.18    20.39     7.48    17.89    56.39    26.80P    0.11R    0.01  
Derby           13   21   +3      -0.66    44.81    -2.57    70.43     9.03     9.43     3.31     9.03    39.83    17.12P    0.31R    0.04  
Norwich         13   21   +1       3.72    76.66     1.83    67.50     9.01     2.68     1.55     4.68    27.74     9.38P    0.93R    0.10  
Blackburn       13   21   +0       2.98    71.90    -0.28    65.30     9.26    -1.33     1.25     3.52    20.86     7.15P    1.93R    0.22  
Wigan           13   20   -1       1.26    59.71    -2.49    67.85     9.29     3.10     2.01     5.77    29.20    11.31P    0.97R    0.12  
Nott'm_Forest   13   19   +3       2.26    67.96     4.67    61.26     9.03    -1.69     0.36     1.24    11.03     3.02P    4.34R    0.60  
Bristol_City    13   19   +3       0.89    57.21     2.64    67.12     9.13     7.27     1.61     4.82    27.35     9.86P    1.03R    0.11  
Sheff_Wed       13   19   +0       1.12    59.09    -0.04    66.46     9.02     3.24     1.20     3.95    24.28     8.37P    1.14R    0.15  
Brentford       13   18   +5      -2.10    34.31     1.52    67.22     9.18    10.90     1.94     5.25    28.32    10.90P    1.03R    0.12  
Aston_Villa     13   18   +1      -2.81    29.38    -3.51    68.69     9.03     9.14     2.37     6.60    33.55    13.74P    0.56R    0.04  
Birmingham      13   17   +2       2.33    69.38     6.40    54.87     8.67    -8.05     0.04     0.16     2.57     0.59P   14.55R    2.76  
Swansea         13   17   +2      -2.95    28.40    -1.29    69.25     9.20    12.28     2.89     7.76    36.18    16.15P    0.55R    0.05  
QPR             13   17   -8       2.25    68.18    -3.24    54.55     8.69   -20.08     0.04     0.15     2.28     0.49P   16.56R    3.56  
Stoke           13   16   -2      -3.68    24.17    -4.62    65.25     9.59     4.17     1.30     3.83    22.37     8.73P    2.32R    0.31  
Bolton          13   16   -5       2.92    74.13     2.08    48.75     8.25   -23.16     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.06P   37.85R   10.60  
Reading         13   12   -3      -3.52    24.33     1.02    50.15     8.80   -14.23     0.01     0.05     0.88     0.20P   30.99R    8.79  
Rotherham       13   12  -10      -0.78    45.48    -1.88    42.04     8.45   -34.58     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   69.19R   37.65  
Preston         13   10   -6      -6.75     8.46    -4.29    55.14     9.11    -6.29     0.04     0.25     3.24     0.94P   14.99R    3.37  
Millwall        13   10   -8      -5.35    14.31    -4.37    52.02     8.82   -12.67     0.02     0.08     1.36     0.35P   23.98R    6.08  
Hull            13    9   -9      -7.26     7.23    -6.44    50.47     8.97   -15.45     0.01     0.04     0.97     0.27P   29.90R    8.56  
Ipswich         13    9   -9      -6.73     8.43    -6.03    46.70     8.73   -20.42     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.07P   46.67R   16.75  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 October 2018, Blackpool 2 0 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           14   33  +13      10.63    97.77     8.36    81.47     8.90    19.62    14.54    32.33    81.42    43.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         14   27  +10       5.10    82.02     6.01    79.85     9.19    23.61    11.53    27.48    76.64    40.07P    0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland           13   26  +13       1.85    62.75     3.33    86.66     9.43    36.59    35.83    58.19    91.99    69.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   14   26   +5       7.36    91.00     5.66    67.85     9.21     2.10     1.11     3.31    26.90     7.82P    1.41R    0.05  
Barnsley             13   25  +15       0.57    53.34     4.99    85.12     9.40    37.43    29.26    51.95    89.72    65.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            14   25   +5       4.87    81.52     3.60    69.56     8.99     5.76     1.39     4.36    33.07    10.09P    0.79R    0.03  
Luton                14   22   +3       2.64    68.64     2.90    69.62     9.39     8.34     1.50     4.81    34.72    11.72P    1.03R    0.05  
Walsall              13   22   +1       4.64    81.88     1.62    64.50     9.02    -2.95     0.37     1.44    16.05     4.15P    3.23R    0.20  
Charlton             13   21   +3       1.87    64.24     1.18    71.38     9.22    10.55     2.10     6.75    41.86    15.38P    0.57R    0.01  
Coventry             14   21   -1       4.06    78.12     2.00    59.23     8.81    -8.24     0.05     0.26     6.00     1.31P    9.67R    0.78  
Fleetwood_Town       14   20   +8      -0.59    45.89     5.97    68.14     9.02    14.20     0.89     3.29    29.45     9.87P    1.07R    0.04  
Southend             14   20   +0       0.26    52.69    -0.79    62.88     8.92    -1.69     0.25     0.96    12.44     3.52P    4.43R    0.33  
Blackpool            12   19   +5       1.24    60.07     3.05    66.51     9.23     6.51     0.69     2.57    23.30     7.31P    2.05R    0.11  
Burton_Albion        13   17   -1      -1.59    38.60    -2.09    60.52     9.41    -3.41     0.17     0.69     9.38     2.78P    8.21R    0.81  
Scunthorpe           14   17   -7      -2.66    31.71    -7.39    64.07     9.20    -2.60     0.26     1.23    15.71     4.83P    4.17R    0.37  
Rochdale             14   16   -7      -0.95    44.01    -3.18    57.51     8.99   -11.11     0.02     0.17     4.36     0.95P   14.23R    1.83  
Wycombe              14   15   -4      -0.56    47.06     1.59    49.42     8.86   -19.21     0.01     0.02     0.60     0.13P   42.96R    9.83  
Shrewsbury           14   12   -4      -6.76     9.55    -3.66    56.50     8.69    -2.67     0.01     0.09     3.09     0.83P   14.69R    1.76  
Gillingham           13   12   -7      -3.23    26.87    -2.70    52.75     9.10   -14.40     0.00     0.05     1.55     0.33P   29.30R    5.41  
Bristol_Rovers       14   11   -4      -6.96     8.93    -2.38    49.53     8.69   -11.82     0.01     0.02     0.58     0.13P   40.53R    8.54  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   11  -10      -4.37    19.74    -4.67    46.40     8.45   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   56.62R   15.73  
Oxford_Utd           14   10  -10      -7.08     8.51    -6.63    48.77     8.86   -18.07     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.10P   45.30R   10.76  
Bradford             14   10  -12      -6.49    10.12    -8.08    48.66     8.76   -19.67     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.12P   46.14R   11.12  
Plymouth             14    7  -14      -8.66     3.77    -8.68    42.28     8.59   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   73.58R   32.24  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 October 2018, Bury 4 0 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     14   32  +17       8.13    93.99    10.02    85.34     8.85    31.15    32.51    68.98    93.73    75.37P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           14   28  +12       4.37    79.10     5.36    81.37     8.89    26.18    17.79    51.72    86.37    61.27P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          14   27   +9       3.02    71.29     2.09    83.22     8.88    26.97    23.57    59.79    90.14    69.16P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   14   27   -3       8.80    95.26    -1.45    66.06     8.67   -10.46     0.66     4.53    25.26     7.59P    0.21R    0.02  
Colchester       14   25  +14       1.63    61.63     7.75    77.66     8.92    27.22    10.39    35.84    76.84    47.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         14   24   +5       5.32    84.08     5.49    66.67     8.99     3.64     0.83     5.46    29.12    10.00P    0.21R    0.03  
Bury             14   22   +8      -0.79    44.05     2.54    75.82     9.19    22.92     7.14    28.81    69.25    40.78P    0.03R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     14   22   +3       3.35    73.63     3.95    64.65     8.78     1.09     0.42     3.44    21.76     6.87P    0.41R    0.06  
Forest_Green     14   21   +7       2.44    68.13     7.98    61.18     8.69     1.47     0.15     1.62    12.59     3.62P    1.10R    0.20  
Stevenage        14   21   +2       0.71    55.71     0.37    63.75     8.76     0.65     0.34     2.77    18.82     6.17P    0.50R    0.07  
Carlisle         14   19   -3      -0.97    43.06    -4.13    62.50     8.82    -3.29     0.23     2.06    15.23     4.87P    0.88R    0.16  
Swindon          14   18   -1      -1.97    36.05    -2.20    66.14     8.90     5.36     0.56     4.71    27.46    10.26P    0.30R    0.06  
Mansfield        12   17   +7      -1.76    36.07     3.58    71.58     9.18    18.85     3.02    15.35    51.83    25.70P    0.09R    0.02  
Yeovil           13   17   +5       0.45    54.41     6.92    62.84     9.03     5.85     0.28     2.48    17.51     5.51P    0.99R    0.18  
Oldham           13   17   +3      -4.20    20.75    -2.03    69.25     9.38    13.41     1.94    10.64    41.50    19.76P    0.21R    0.03  
Port_Vale        14   17   -5      -0.11    50.45    -2.16    57.88     8.66    -9.15     0.05     0.54     6.23     1.61P    3.07R    0.72  
Crewe            13   15   +0      -1.85    36.63     1.48    58.26     8.94    -2.84     0.07     0.74     7.65     2.15P    2.78R    0.56  
Morecambe        14   13  -12      -1.98    35.85    -5.78    46.92     8.28   -26.87     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.04P   26.08R    8.46  
Northampton      14   12   -9      -6.02    12.65    -7.35    54.66     8.98   -10.62     0.02     0.24     3.68     1.02P    6.58R    1.87  
Grimsby          13   12   -9      -1.98    35.03    -3.61    47.54     8.43   -22.57     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.11P   23.31R    7.59  
Notts_County     13   12  -14      -4.24    20.66   -11.22    53.70     9.09   -19.79     0.01     0.19     3.06     0.80P    9.12R    2.50  
Cheltenham       13   10   -9      -5.25    14.37    -5.09    48.78     8.80   -18.87     0.01     0.05     0.81     0.18P   19.31R    6.17  
Cambridge_Utd    14    9  -15      -6.91     8.33   -10.14    47.45     8.57   -23.00     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.07P   24.25R    8.72  
Macclesfield     14    7  -12      -5.90    11.12    -2.36    34.77     8.15   -37.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   80.59R   62.58  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       16   34  +18       8.54    92.44    12.69    80.41     9.06    26.12    17.00    67.26    28.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham            16   34  +13       8.78    94.28     8.15    79.82     8.13    20.21    12.72    65.48    25.96P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      16   33  +19       5.37    82.55    10.73    84.82     8.35    34.97    32.59    84.66    48.25P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     16   33  +15       9.08    93.53    11.91    79.71     9.17    23.48    15.09    63.91    25.83P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   31   +6      10.19    96.25     7.47    71.17     8.27     5.06     1.80    24.49     5.63P    0.23R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          16   29  +15       1.82    62.16     7.12    78.81     8.32    27.78    11.39    62.32    26.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          16   29   +8       4.06    76.13     3.49    73.13     8.28    12.78     3.11    33.59    10.29P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool         16   28   +4       4.78    79.96     1.98    68.99     8.21     4.49     0.99    17.66     4.52P    0.41R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.49    79.00     1.53    71.53     8.59     7.82     2.30    27.11     7.81P    0.28R    0.00  
Eastleigh          16   23   -5       3.41    73.06    -1.73    60.56     8.27    -9.95     0.07     2.83     0.54P    5.88R    0.09  
Boreham_Wood       16   22   -1      -0.96    43.59    -2.79    63.79     8.30     0.59     0.23     6.50     1.80P    2.44R    0.02  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.27    34.18    -7.62    71.32     8.77     8.01     2.25    26.84     9.81P    0.32R    0.00  
Barrow             16   21   +1      -0.78    45.05     1.06    59.48     8.20    -2.40     0.05     2.43     0.51P    6.37R    0.12  
Halifax            16   21   +0       1.84    63.95     3.55    57.94     8.11    -5.32     0.04     1.41     0.28P    9.03R    0.18  
Bromley            16   20   -3      -2.16    35.89    -3.39    61.35     8.48    -2.78     0.15     4.02     0.93P    4.80R    0.11  
Aldershot          16   20   -6      -2.08    36.01    -6.50    61.34     8.27    -5.25     0.09     3.63     0.89P    4.54R    0.09  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   18   -3      -3.00    30.32    -1.96    59.80     8.34    -1.71     0.06     2.52     0.57P    6.46R    0.11  
Maidenhead         16   17   -6      -2.36    34.66    -2.07    53.35     8.32   -13.59     0.01     0.49     0.11P   23.16R    1.04  
Chesterfield       16   14   -6      -9.94     4.08    -9.11    59.21     8.67     0.22     0.07     2.72     0.92P    7.91R    0.20  
Maidstone_United   16   14  -10      -3.11    28.84    -3.24    46.95     7.84   -21.26     0.00     0.04     0.01P   52.96R    4.48  
Havant_&_Wville    16   11  -12      -4.02    24.43    -0.97    40.25     8.33   -31.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.07R   20.25  
Dag_&_Red          16    9  -12     -12.02     1.16   -10.88    47.50     8.34   -15.82     0.00     0.05     0.01P   48.25R    4.41  
Dover_Athletic     16    8  -19     -11.17     1.63   -14.82    47.25     8.40   -21.63     0.00     0.04     0.01P   50.70R    5.19  
Braintree_Town     16    7  -17      -6.80     8.52    -4.59    32.47     7.87   -40.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.11R   63.70