Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 17 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Fulham 1 5 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   20  +18       1.06    61.56     2.71    89.40     7.17    68.79    60.78    83.29    93.54    97.83    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           8   20  +13       3.72    84.87     4.57    78.06     8.08    40.02     8.26    26.02    49.78    72.57    97.04     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         8   20  +12       4.88    91.43     5.19    83.15     7.80    48.90    20.89    53.09    75.05    89.12    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   18   +9       2.96    77.91     2.13    73.81     8.31    33.22     3.20    13.08    29.16    51.13    92.01     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         8   18   +8       1.44    64.18    -1.27    77.01     8.08    36.49     6.47    21.92    44.01    67.35    96.18     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       8   16   +4       5.09    90.14     4.42    52.25     8.28    -6.72     0.00     0.04     0.19     0.84     9.49     0.94R    0.05  
Wolverhampton     8   15   +3       5.63    92.96     5.62    51.79     8.37    -4.60     0.00     0.04     0.22     0.77     8.65     1.04R    0.06  
Man_Utd           8   13   -1      -1.97    29.59    -6.90    66.72     8.16    18.28     0.39     2.44     7.61    18.72    73.30     0.01R    0.00  
Watford           8   13   -1       4.00    85.53     2.49    46.18     8.03   -16.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     2.21     4.67R    0.42  
Leicester         8   12   +2       0.71    57.43     1.77    53.01     8.51    -0.37     0.01     0.05     0.30     1.06    11.46     0.99R    0.06  
Everton           8   12   +1      -0.13    48.71    -0.54    50.51     8.25    -4.83     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.44     6.63     1.53R    0.10  
Burnley           8    8   -2      -3.29    19.77    -2.57    41.40     7.83   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.60    12.25R    1.29  
Brighton          8    8   -4       0.23    54.64     1.54    41.88     7.92   -15.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.74    11.47R    1.39  
Crystal_Palace    8    7   -4      -3.45    18.77    -3.12    39.72     7.88   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.42    17.57R    2.47  
West_Ham          8    7   -5      -0.95    41.43     0.45    43.66     8.27   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.24     9.20R    1.20  
Southampton       8    5   -8      -3.75    15.43    -4.53    38.95     7.97   -20.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28    21.19R    3.49  
Fulham            8    5  -12      -1.76    32.82    -2.86    33.14     8.20   -37.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    50.44R   15.13  
Huddersfield      8    3  -13      -2.54    21.19    -3.28    26.13     7.04   -43.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.73R   43.95  
Newcastle         8    2   -7      -5.73     3.70    -1.72    40.04     8.17   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43    16.91R    2.64  
Cardiff           8    2  -13      -4.11     9.45    -4.10    29.03     7.84   -36.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    69.07R   27.75  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Bristol_City 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Sheff_Utd       12   25   +8       6.61    90.84     5.07    75.57     9.43    13.81     8.32    20.26    60.54    28.70P    0.09R    0.00  
West_Brom       12   24  +14       1.28    59.58     3.90    86.47     9.71    39.02    47.23    66.19    91.68    74.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    12   23  +13       4.66    83.15    10.05    76.18     9.36    22.76     9.97    23.12    64.78    32.91P    0.06R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   12   22   +8       1.86    64.91     2.68    79.69     8.99    24.16    15.81    35.28    77.85    48.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   12   19   +4       3.51    77.23     5.46    63.52     9.28     0.58     0.62     2.05    16.02     4.68P    2.66R    0.37  
Sheff_Wed       12   19   +1       2.36    68.68     0.80    68.26     9.25     4.91     1.76     5.48    30.32    10.69P    0.79R    0.10  
Brentford       12   18   +6      -0.74    44.10     2.49    69.93     9.39    13.91     3.20     8.67    38.70    15.84P    0.51R    0.04  
Derby           12   18   +2      -1.81    35.80    -2.93    68.83     9.15     8.43     2.16     6.35    33.06    13.53P    0.55R    0.05  
Norwich         12   18   +0       2.22    67.85     1.01    64.80     9.25     0.01     0.78     2.58    19.18     5.83P    1.95R    0.25  
Blackburn       12   18   -1       1.77    64.55    -0.67    62.90     9.41    -3.53     0.55     1.87    14.42     4.45P    3.35R    0.48  
Swansea         12   17   +3      -1.91    35.10    -0.72    70.99     9.62    13.88     3.99    10.32    42.73    19.75P    0.41R    0.04  
Wigan           12   17   -2      -0.33    47.69    -3.38    65.64     9.50     1.16     1.13     3.52    21.98     8.03P    1.73R    0.26  
Bristol_City    12   16   +2      -0.71    44.73     1.74    64.14     9.39     4.11     0.74     2.49    18.15     5.79P    2.44R    0.30  
Stoke           12   16   -1      -2.28    32.61    -3.63    68.54     9.76     8.03     2.25     6.76    33.00    13.70P    0.99R    0.11  
Aston_Villa     12   15   +0      -4.14    20.11    -4.07    66.76     9.30     7.67     1.40     4.44    26.21    10.22P    1.16R    0.12  
Bolton          12   15   -5       3.04    75.69     1.86    48.79     8.42   -23.72     0.00     0.02     0.38     0.07P   36.69R   11.10  
Birmingham      12   14   +1       0.62    56.75     5.37    51.66     8.76   -11.67     0.01     0.06     1.23     0.26P   24.03R    5.99  
QPR             12   14  -10       0.77    57.70    -4.84    51.26     8.82   -24.94     0.00     0.04     1.12     0.21P   27.17R    7.62  
Rotherham       12   11  -10      -0.29    49.67    -1.65    43.00     8.82   -33.80     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.03P   63.82R   33.21  
Millwall        12   10   -6      -4.51    17.50    -3.14    54.31     9.05    -9.41     0.02     0.13     2.45     0.66P   16.73R    3.91  
Reading         12    9   -5      -4.77    15.59    -0.28    47.78     8.95   -17.47     0.00     0.02     0.46     0.10P   40.28R   14.37  
Preston         12    9   -6      -6.59     7.93    -4.57    55.38     9.35    -6.57     0.04     0.22     3.51     0.97P   14.42R    3.58  
Ipswich         12    9   -7      -5.64    11.65    -4.41    49.60     9.10   -16.30     0.00     0.02     0.78     0.15P   32.90R   10.25  
Hull            12    8   -9      -6.74     7.76    -6.15    51.19     9.25   -15.04     0.01     0.08     1.34     0.34P   27.25R    7.85  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 1 2 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           13   30  +12       9.14    96.27     7.55    79.28     9.23    17.78     9.15    23.20    74.18    34.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough         13   27  +11       6.32    88.33     6.70    82.47     9.44    26.60    15.99    36.31    84.32    48.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnsley             12   25  +17       1.63    61.77     6.39    89.01     9.55    43.40    43.36    66.36    94.92    76.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            13   24   +5       5.35    84.77     3.77    70.26     9.08     6.29     1.29     4.65    37.23    11.31P    0.74R    0.03  
Sunderland           12   23  +11       0.88    55.90     2.32    84.65     9.79    33.97    24.40    47.66    88.19    61.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   13   23   +4       5.77    86.56     4.73    65.20     9.46    -0.61     0.56     1.97    19.94     5.45P    3.28R    0.24  
Walsall              12   22   +3       5.68    87.58     3.15    66.66     9.27     0.18     0.64     2.47    23.82     6.49P    1.98R    0.11  
Fleetwood_Town       13   20   +9       0.66    55.34     6.83    69.94     9.27    15.81     1.37     5.05    38.08    13.39P    0.83R    0.05  
Southend             13   20   +1       1.52    61.87     0.05    65.01     9.15     0.34     0.42     1.59    18.75     5.22P    2.92R    0.18  
Luton                13   19   +1       1.64    62.58     1.89    66.79     9.66     4.50     0.69     2.64    25.53     7.95P    2.56R    0.19  
Charlton             12   18   +1       0.52    54.34    -0.41    67.98     9.51     5.80     0.96     3.31    29.73     9.67P    1.66R    0.10  
Coventry             13   18   -2       2.57    70.16     1.19    56.56     8.96   -10.60     0.02     0.15     3.91     0.89P   16.14R    1.86  
Scunthorpe           13   17   -6      -1.24    41.08    -6.35    66.52     9.44     0.13     0.57     2.30    23.77     7.47P    2.52R    0.21  
Blackpool            11   16   +3       0.15    51.60     1.82    64.08     9.32     3.29     0.43     1.47    16.94     4.97P    3.78R    0.28  
Burton_Albion        12   14   -2      -2.70    29.90    -2.43    58.63     9.57    -4.69     0.11     0.45     7.27     2.07P   12.30R    1.49  
Rochdale             13   13   -9      -2.11    34.81    -4.35    55.11     9.12   -14.43     0.00     0.08     2.80     0.64P   21.71R    3.52  
Shrewsbury           13   12   -2      -6.08    11.28    -2.62    58.12     8.92    -0.39     0.03     0.23     5.16     1.47P   11.47R    1.29  
Wycombe              13   12   -5      -2.36    33.25     0.22    46.62     9.03   -22.04     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P   55.81R   17.58  
Gillingham           12   11   -7      -3.00    27.53    -3.00    52.93     9.34   -14.55     0.01     0.05     2.05     0.42P   28.93R    6.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        13   11   -8      -3.41    24.71    -3.16    48.07     8.62   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.06P   48.93R   12.58  
Bristol_Rovers       13   10   -4      -6.70     9.07    -2.44    50.09     8.94   -11.76     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.17P   38.54R    8.63  
Bradford             13   10  -10      -5.70    12.68    -6.89    51.18     8.99   -16.02     0.00     0.02     1.05     0.23P   34.95R    7.58  
Oxford_Utd           13    9  -10      -6.84     8.30    -6.72    49.28     9.10   -18.03     0.00     0.01     0.71     0.16P   43.39R   10.86  
Plymouth             13    7  -13      -7.65     5.27    -8.26    43.79     8.73   -25.63     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P   67.50R   27.19  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, Cambridge_Utd 0 1 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     13   31  +17       8.85    96.33    10.55    86.72     9.08    32.79    37.49    72.56    94.18    78.05P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           13   27  +12       5.14    84.07     5.90    82.67     9.12    27.72    20.68    55.91    87.52    64.42P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   13   27   +0       9.44    96.80     0.45    68.67     9.02    -5.50     1.27     7.78    33.82    11.95P    0.12R    0.01  
MK_Dons          13   24   +8       1.94    64.41     1.84    81.90     9.18    26.46    18.12    52.69    85.86    63.01P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         13   23   +5       5.60    86.21     5.46    66.88     9.26     3.27     0.87     6.04    28.52    10.38P    0.24R    0.02  
Colchester       13   22  +13       0.49    53.61     7.44    76.13     9.18    26.45     7.50    29.45    68.92    40.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        13   21   +3       1.99    65.47     1.23    66.20     9.03     3.09     0.68     4.92    26.08     9.37P    0.25R    0.02  
Forest_Green     13   20   +7       3.00    72.46     8.27    61.91     9.02     1.86     0.27     2.09    13.74     4.25P    0.87R    0.12  
Bury             13   19   +4      -1.18    41.12     0.47    72.65     9.52    16.65     3.72    17.76    53.67    27.84P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +0       2.46    69.13     2.07    61.91     8.92    -3.58     0.20     1.82    13.04     3.85P    1.02R    0.19  
Carlisle         13   19   -2       0.45    53.81    -3.07    65.02     9.01    -0.68     0.47     3.71    21.57     7.52P    0.40R    0.06  
Oldham           12   17   +4      -2.85    28.38    -1.06    72.52     9.55    17.13     3.81    17.73    53.09    28.46P    0.06R    0.00  
Swindon          13   17   -1      -1.71    37.35    -2.32    66.64     9.15     5.55     0.77     5.57    28.28    11.12P    0.29R    0.04  
Mansfield        11   16   +7      -1.53    37.07     3.39    72.41     9.39    19.50     3.61    17.00    52.88    27.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Yeovil           12   16   +5       0.98    58.81     7.22    63.63     9.30     6.35     0.39     3.14    18.99     6.38P    0.81R    0.14  
Port_Vale        13   14   -6      -1.94    36.02    -3.35    55.13     8.83   -11.99     0.01     0.24     3.33     0.85P    5.38R    1.07  
Morecambe        13   13  -11      -1.07    42.72    -5.36    47.75     8.61   -27.12     0.00     0.02     0.43     0.08P   21.74R    5.72  
Crewe            12   12   -1      -3.54    23.63     0.43    55.95     9.14    -5.01     0.02     0.42     4.63     1.26P    4.51R    0.94  
Northampton      13   12   -8      -5.29    15.64    -7.21    55.69     9.33   -10.31     0.05     0.48     4.69     1.51P    5.27R    1.17  
Notts_County     12   12  -10      -4.05    21.16    -9.09    56.31     9.43   -13.99     0.06     0.60     5.26     1.60P    5.14R    1.00  
Grimsby          12   11   -9      -1.95    34.56    -3.98    47.17     8.69   -24.06     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.07P   23.71R    6.65  
Cheltenham       12    9   -9      -5.15    14.02    -5.40    48.47     9.08   -20.09     0.00     0.04     0.76     0.15P   19.46R    5.33  
Cambridge_Utd    13    8  -15      -6.89     7.84   -10.65    46.90     8.78   -24.68     0.00     0.02     0.35     0.09P   25.23R    7.61  
Macclesfield     13    4  -13      -7.54     3.92    -3.22    32.22     8.32   -39.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.39R   69.89  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       16   34  +18       8.63    92.52    12.82    80.17     9.07    25.74    16.35    65.97    27.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            16   34  +13       8.74    94.34     8.10    79.90     8.09    20.28    12.96    65.62    26.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      16   33  +19       5.36    82.80    10.73    84.73     8.31    34.93    32.00    84.25    47.96P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     16   33  +15       9.04    93.16    11.84    79.90     9.14    23.74    15.76    64.87    26.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   31   +6      10.16    96.27     7.46    71.25     8.23     5.21     1.90    24.34     5.60P    0.16R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          16   29  +15       1.83    62.47     7.12    78.77     8.32    27.77    11.48    62.06    26.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          16   29   +8       3.99    75.47     3.39    73.14     8.28    12.80     3.10    33.87    10.54P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool         16   28   +4       4.68    79.30     1.80    69.23     8.20     4.84     1.12    18.23     4.88P    0.39R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.51    79.22     1.54    71.47     8.63     7.73     2.22    26.74     7.66P    0.30R    0.01  
Eastleigh          16   23   -5       3.30    72.51    -1.90    60.74     8.22    -9.69     0.08     3.02     0.61P    5.52R    0.09  
Boreham_Wood       16   22   -1      -0.88    44.15    -2.67    63.75     8.26     0.50     0.22     6.37     1.69P    2.21R    0.01  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.23    34.56    -7.56    71.30     8.87     8.01     2.40    27.15     9.87P    0.35R    0.00  
Barrow             16   21   +1      -0.68    45.79     1.22    59.35     8.29    -2.61     0.06     2.51     0.56P    6.64R    0.09  
Halifax            16   21   +0       1.85    63.92     3.53    57.89     8.08    -5.40     0.02     1.44     0.25P    8.99R    0.18  
Bromley            16   20   -3      -2.19    35.55    -3.40    61.40     8.52    -2.72     0.11     4.23     1.00P    4.88R    0.08  
Aldershot          16   20   -6      -2.14    35.70    -6.56    61.47     8.27    -5.05     0.10     3.60     0.84P    4.35R    0.09  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   18   -3      -2.86    31.16    -1.78    59.72     8.29    -1.82     0.05     2.46     0.58P    6.48R    0.15  
Maidenhead         16   17   -6      -2.45    33.95    -2.17    53.38     8.31   -13.54     0.00     0.47     0.08P   23.05R    1.01  
Chesterfield       16   14   -6      -9.89     4.18    -9.07    59.08     8.63     0.09     0.08     2.69     0.85P    8.13R    0.19  
Maidstone_United   16   14  -10      -3.13    29.02    -3.28    47.00     7.85   -21.16     0.00     0.03     0.00P   52.47R    4.29  
Havant_&_Wville    16   11  -12      -4.05    23.95    -1.02    40.41     8.35   -30.83     0.00     0.01     0.00P   79.60R   18.99  
Dag_&_Red          16    9  -12     -12.05     1.17   -10.92    47.43     8.30   -15.87     0.00     0.04     0.01P   49.07R    4.37  
Dover_Athletic     16    8  -19     -11.24     1.60   -14.94    47.26     8.39   -21.61     0.00     0.04     0.01P   50.95R    5.23  
Braintree_Town     16    7  -17      -6.64     9.18    -4.28    32.21     7.86   -41.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.36R   65.24