Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 16 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Fulham 1 5 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   20  +18       1.08    61.63     2.78    89.30     7.19    68.54    60.72    83.34    93.22    97.65    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           8   20  +13       3.69    84.70     4.51    78.04     8.06    39.97     8.38    26.02    49.78    72.80    97.07     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         8   20  +12       4.96    91.93     5.31    82.96     7.85    48.54    20.56    52.65    74.79    88.62    99.17     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   18   +9       2.95    77.94     2.06    73.88     8.30    33.38     3.39    13.33    29.63    51.54    92.07     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         8   18   +8       1.46    64.38    -1.25    76.97     8.11    36.49     6.47    21.94    43.85    67.22    95.90     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       8   16   +4       5.05    89.88     4.40    52.25     8.23    -6.71     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.73     9.33     0.88R    0.05  
Wolverhampton     8   15   +3       5.59    92.60     5.52    52.04     8.54    -4.19     0.00     0.06     0.25     0.91     9.35     1.11R    0.07  
Man_Utd           8   13   -1      -1.97    30.01    -6.89    66.69     8.20    18.25     0.46     2.55     7.88    18.71    72.73     0.00R    0.00  
Watford           8   13   -1       4.03    85.94     2.52    46.09     8.05   -16.25     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.10     2.16     4.60R    0.48  
Leicester         8   12   +2       0.68    57.09     1.68    53.19     8.51    -0.02     0.01     0.05     0.29     1.15    11.82     0.88R    0.06  
Everton           8   12   +1      -0.09    49.08    -0.48    50.50     8.37    -4.82     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.48     6.80     1.58R    0.10  
Burnley           8    8   -2      -3.27    19.91    -2.56    41.38     7.79   -14.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.56    12.09R    1.39  
Brighton          8    8   -4       0.23    54.55     1.53    41.85     7.99   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.69    11.94R    1.39  
Crystal_Palace    8    7   -4      -3.45    18.92    -3.13    39.73     7.88   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.38    17.51R    2.52  
West_Ham          8    7   -5      -0.91    41.73     0.55    43.52     8.31   -14.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.18     9.67R    1.19  
Southampton       8    5   -8      -3.79    15.29    -4.57    39.10     7.96   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33    20.51R    3.21  
Fulham            8    5  -12      -1.83    32.22    -2.96    33.33     8.24   -37.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    49.68R   14.73  
Huddersfield      8    3  -13      -2.56    20.93    -3.30    26.21     7.09   -43.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.45R   44.11  
Newcastle         8    2   -7      -5.70     4.01    -1.65    39.91     8.17   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45    17.44R    2.80  
Cardiff           8    2  -13      -4.11     9.46    -4.10    28.95     7.82   -36.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.66R   27.91  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Bristol_City 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Sheff_Utd       12   25   +8       6.62    91.11     5.07    75.56     9.36    13.82     8.53    20.36    60.67    28.84P    0.07R    0.01  
West_Brom       12   24  +14       1.21    58.73     3.73    86.70     9.68    39.49    48.75    67.21    91.90    74.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    12   23  +13       4.64    82.67    10.01    76.11     9.33    22.58     9.65    22.90    64.78    32.69P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   12   22   +8       1.88    64.94     2.74    79.62     8.92    24.03    15.45    34.82    77.89    48.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   12   19   +4       3.48    76.95     5.43    63.60     9.22     0.72     0.55     2.12    16.15     4.57P    2.55R    0.34  
Sheff_Wed       12   19   +1       2.33    68.12     0.74    68.40     9.26     5.13     1.78     5.57    31.13    11.13P    0.78R    0.07  
Brentford       12   18   +6      -0.75    43.87     2.48    69.90     9.40    13.88     3.02     8.57    38.60    15.85P    0.56R    0.07  
Derby           12   18   +2      -1.82    35.48    -2.94    68.72     9.12     8.33     2.00     6.10    32.55    12.87P    0.50R    0.04  
Norwich         12   18   +0       2.23    67.92     1.04    64.78     9.25    -0.06     0.80     2.67    19.07     5.97P    2.02R    0.25  
Blackburn       12   18   -1       1.70    63.77    -0.75    63.11     9.50    -3.23     0.61     2.05    15.13     4.73P    3.36R    0.50  
Swansea         12   17   +3      -1.94    34.60    -0.74    70.96     9.46    13.79     3.46    10.01    42.73    19.88P    0.42R    0.03  
Wigan           12   17   -2      -0.21    48.66    -3.22    65.28     9.50     0.67     1.09     3.39    21.03     7.58P    2.02R    0.28  
Bristol_City    12   16   +2      -0.77    44.41     1.62    64.41     9.35     4.50     0.70     2.63    18.93     6.23P    2.31R    0.30  
Stoke           12   16   -1      -2.18    33.24    -3.49    68.44     9.78     7.81     2.14     6.77    32.66    13.78P    0.98R    0.14  
Aston_Villa     12   15   +0      -4.11    20.32    -4.04    66.59     9.27     7.48     1.32     4.22    25.61     9.93P    1.14R    0.13  
Bolton          12   15   -5       3.02    75.64     1.80    48.88     8.43   -23.56     0.00     0.02     0.42     0.06P   36.50R   10.96  
Birmingham      12   14   +1       0.52    56.02     5.26    52.00     8.68   -11.19     0.01     0.07     1.31     0.29P   22.57R    5.50  
QPR             12   14  -10       0.82    58.39    -4.77    51.02     8.83   -25.27     0.01     0.04     0.98     0.20P   28.49R    8.07  
Rotherham       12   11  -10      -0.29    49.45    -1.62    42.98     8.81   -33.86     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   64.09R   33.42  
Millwall        12   10   -6      -4.43    17.74    -3.03    54.06     9.10    -9.67     0.02     0.12     2.38     0.58P   17.54R    4.32  
Reading         12    9   -5      -4.82    15.38    -0.34    47.79     9.00   -17.43     0.00     0.02     0.46     0.10P   40.51R   14.59  
Preston         12    9   -6      -6.51     8.19    -4.45    55.26     9.34    -6.79     0.05     0.24     3.50     0.95P   14.48R    3.55  
Ipswich         12    9   -7      -5.59    11.64    -4.35    49.65     8.94   -16.21     0.01     0.02     0.73     0.16P   32.21R    9.82  
Hull            12    8   -9      -6.76     7.83    -6.19    51.24     9.17   -14.95     0.03     0.08     1.26     0.30P   26.83R    7.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 1 2 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           13   30  +12       9.14    96.31     7.56    79.31     9.16    17.83     9.43    23.72    74.31    35.44P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough         13   27  +11       6.35    88.41     6.76    82.30     9.41    26.31    15.88    36.17    83.35    48.52P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley             12   25  +17       1.76    62.81     6.61    88.67     9.64    42.84    42.83    65.38    94.32    75.43P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            13   24   +5       5.31    84.65     3.72    70.33     9.14     6.37     1.36     4.86    37.19    11.61P    0.74R    0.03  
Sunderland           12   23  +11       0.97    56.75     2.47    84.43     9.80    33.62    24.49    47.20    87.61    61.24P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   13   23   +4       5.74    86.10     4.69    65.36     9.44    -0.32     0.61     2.13    19.97     5.60P    3.05R    0.22  
Walsall              12   22   +3       5.60    87.12     3.05    66.82     9.25     0.36     0.61     2.48    24.06     6.47P    1.94R    0.13  
Fleetwood_Town       13   20   +9       0.61    54.82     6.73    70.11     9.21    16.06     1.45     5.10    38.31    13.38P    0.71R    0.04  
Southend             13   20   +1       1.54    61.81     0.11    64.94     9.16     0.28     0.40     1.56    18.28     5.09P    3.01R    0.18  
Luton                13   19   +1       1.62    62.77     1.83    66.85     9.67     4.61     0.73     2.77    25.62     8.02P    2.49R    0.18  
Charlton             12   18   +1       0.35    53.14    -0.69    68.34     9.37     6.38     1.02     3.57    30.31    10.01P    1.39R    0.09  
Coventry             13   18   -2       2.53    69.87     1.18    56.58     9.01   -10.67     0.03     0.17     3.97     0.88P   16.17R    1.98  
Scunthorpe           13   17   -6      -1.28    40.69    -6.40    66.78     9.42     0.56     0.58     2.37    24.44     7.73P    2.42R    0.18  
Blackpool            11   16   +3       0.16    51.69     1.83    64.16     9.51     3.43     0.41     1.65    17.58     5.29P    3.99R    0.33  
Burton_Albion        12   14   -2      -2.69    30.08    -2.40    58.60     9.54    -4.71     0.09     0.41     7.05     1.98P   12.06R    1.54  
Rochdale             13   13   -9      -2.11    35.05    -4.37    55.12     9.26   -14.46     0.02     0.10     3.10     0.64P   21.57R    3.74  
Shrewsbury           13   12   -2      -6.08    11.29    -2.64    58.24     8.91    -0.23     0.04     0.23     5.25     1.52P   10.91R    1.25  
Wycombe              13   12   -5      -2.28    34.13     0.31    46.40     9.04   -22.34     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.08P   56.40R   18.32  
Gillingham           12   11   -7      -2.99    27.67    -3.02    52.89     9.32   -14.53     0.01     0.06     2.07     0.43P   29.13R    5.76  
AFC_Wimbledon        13   11   -8      -3.46    24.65    -3.24    48.18     8.64   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.07P   47.76R   12.14  
Bristol_Rovers       13   10   -4      -6.70     9.09    -2.42    49.94     8.87   -11.91     0.00     0.02     0.81     0.19P   38.85R    8.34  
Bradford             13   10  -10      -5.60    12.80    -6.75    50.87     8.99   -16.45     0.01     0.02     0.91     0.18P   36.23R    7.98  
Oxford_Utd           13    9  -10      -6.77     8.51    -6.66    49.24     9.09   -18.10     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.15P   43.35R   10.76  
Plymouth             13    7  -13      -7.64     5.23    -8.25    43.73     8.74   -25.73     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   67.72R   26.82  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, Cambridge_Utd 0 1 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     13   31  +17       8.89    96.14    10.60    86.60     9.03    32.55    36.67    72.28    94.17    77.98P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           13   27  +12       5.04    83.65     5.78    82.85     9.13    27.98    21.15    56.62    88.06    65.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   13   27   +0       9.45    96.74     0.48    68.65     9.03    -5.58     1.24     7.74    33.68    11.95P    0.15R    0.02  
MK_Dons          13   24   +8       1.84    63.60     1.71    82.08     9.23    26.75    18.88    53.06    85.96    63.32P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         13   23   +5       5.54    85.85     5.40    66.95     9.39     3.33     0.93     6.29    28.99    10.61P    0.29R    0.02  
Colchester       13   22  +13       0.52    53.74     7.47    76.06     9.12    26.33     7.08    28.78    68.97    39.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        13   21   +3       2.05    65.66     1.31    66.03     8.97     2.84     0.61     4.65    25.19     8.91P    0.30R    0.02  
Forest_Green     13   20   +7       3.03    72.83     8.36    61.90     8.95     1.79     0.21     1.89    13.75     3.90P    0.92R    0.13  
Bury             13   19   +4      -1.19    41.11     0.41    72.85     9.52    16.94     3.80    18.26    54.37    28.45P    0.07R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +0       2.42    68.85     2.05    61.92     8.96    -3.60     0.19     1.83    13.24     3.89P    0.91R    0.14  
Carlisle         13   19   -2       0.44    53.73    -3.08    64.96     8.99    -0.74     0.52     3.57    21.48     7.53P    0.38R    0.05  
Oldham           12   17   +4      -2.73    29.13    -0.90    72.19     9.71    16.70     3.87    17.07    51.52    27.59P    0.08R    0.00  
Swindon          13   17   -1      -1.78    36.95    -2.40    66.70     9.20     5.60     0.78     5.68    28.44    11.23P    0.34R    0.04  
Mansfield        11   16   +7      -1.55    36.98     3.37    72.51     9.44    19.66     3.55    17.48    53.48    27.92P    0.04R    0.00  
Yeovil           12   16   +5       0.99    58.67     7.25    63.51     9.32     6.19     0.37     3.05    18.96     6.24P    0.71R    0.12  
Port_Vale        13   14   -6      -1.93    35.85    -3.33    55.11     8.82   -12.04     0.02     0.22     3.30     0.74P    5.31R    1.11  
Morecambe        13   13  -11      -1.13    42.41    -5.45    47.92     8.58   -26.73     0.00     0.02     0.45     0.08P   21.16R    5.26  
Crewe            12   12   -1      -3.52    23.70     0.44    55.92     9.19    -5.06     0.04     0.49     4.78     1.30P    4.67R    0.80  
Northampton      13   12   -8      -5.26    15.62    -7.20    55.75     9.30   -10.13     0.04     0.43     4.64     1.47P    5.26R    1.15  
Notts_County     12   12  -10      -3.98    21.33    -9.04    56.24     9.37   -14.08     0.04     0.51     5.08     1.59P    5.11R    1.06  
Grimsby          12   11   -9      -1.99    34.41    -4.04    47.32     8.72   -23.86     0.00     0.03     0.38     0.10P   23.61R    6.37  
Cheltenham       12    9   -9      -5.05    14.29    -5.29    48.33     9.00   -20.30     0.00     0.04     0.72     0.16P   20.11R    5.36  
Cambridge_Utd    13    8  -15      -6.93     7.56   -10.70    47.02     8.82   -24.46     0.00     0.02     0.40     0.10P   24.76R    7.63  
Macclesfield     13    4  -13      -7.51     3.96    -3.20    32.08     8.29   -40.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.82R   70.70  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       16   34  +18       8.50    92.16    12.61    80.40     9.15    26.12    17.22    66.69    28.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            16   34  +13       8.69    94.15     8.05    80.02     8.08    20.44    12.79    66.08    26.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      16   33  +19       5.33    82.22    10.67    84.75     8.33    34.91    32.02    84.40    47.95P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     16   33  +15       9.12    93.52    11.94    79.79     9.27    23.63    15.38    63.72    26.22P    0.03R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   31   +6      10.12    96.30     7.39    71.42     8.24     5.39     1.90    25.11     5.79P    0.19R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          16   29  +15       1.87    62.71     7.21    78.79     8.31    27.74    11.27    62.20    26.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead          16   29   +8       3.95    75.34     3.36    73.19     8.27    12.88     3.22    33.76    10.56P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool         16   28   +4       4.63    79.20     1.80    69.25     8.22     4.89     1.15    18.39     4.71P    0.42R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.58    79.55     1.66    71.42     8.60     7.65     2.17    26.54     7.60P    0.30R    0.00  
Eastleigh          16   23   -5       3.35    72.81    -1.81    60.61     8.22    -9.87     0.06     2.95     0.59P    5.85R    0.07  
Boreham_Wood       16   22   -1      -0.90    43.80    -2.69    63.66     8.26     0.37     0.19     6.25     1.58P    2.38R    0.02  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.21    34.49    -7.56    71.23     8.87     7.92     2.23    27.06     9.54P    0.43R    0.00  
Barrow             16   21   +1      -0.68    45.74     1.23    59.36     8.24    -2.63     0.04     2.40     0.51P    6.53R    0.12  
Halifax            16   21   +0       1.90    64.27     3.66    57.69     8.06    -5.69     0.02     1.33     0.29P    9.48R    0.23  
Bromley            16   20   -3      -2.17    35.95    -3.35    61.23     8.45    -2.97     0.10     3.81     0.91P    5.01R    0.11  
Aldershot          16   20   -6      -2.17    35.60    -6.60    61.51     8.32    -5.00     0.11     3.78     1.00P    4.34R    0.07  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   18   -3      -2.89    31.19    -1.81    59.79     8.34    -1.72     0.06     2.55     0.61P    6.44R    0.13  
Maidenhead         16   17   -6      -2.36    34.70    -2.08    53.20     8.26   -13.79     0.01     0.36     0.07P   23.67R    1.01  
Chesterfield       16   14   -6      -9.79     4.34    -8.93    58.95     8.67    -0.17     0.06     2.48     0.78P    8.15R    0.26  
Maidstone_United   16   14  -10      -3.17    28.85    -3.36    47.00     7.93   -21.15     0.00     0.04     0.01P   52.65R    4.49  
Havant_&_Wville    16   11  -12      -4.12    23.69    -1.15    40.63     8.35   -30.47     0.00     0.01     0.00    78.94R   18.72  
Dag_&_Red          16    9  -12     -12.03     1.14   -10.91    47.49     8.36   -15.79     0.00     0.07     0.00P   48.37R    4.40  
Dover_Athletic     16    8  -19     -11.25     1.57   -14.98    47.34     8.36   -21.47     0.00     0.05     0.01P   50.51R    5.12  
Braintree_Town     16    7  -17      -6.65     9.40    -4.34    32.24     7.95   -41.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.21R   65.24