Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 15 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Fulham 1 5 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   20  +18       1.09    61.82     2.84    89.28     7.24    68.40    60.56    83.05    92.99    97.66    99.90     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           8   20  +13       3.69    84.80     4.50    78.10     8.07    40.08     8.51    26.35    49.74    72.72    97.12     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         8   20  +12       4.97    91.81     5.26    83.08     7.83    48.81    20.52    52.54    75.00    88.95    99.28     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   18   +9       2.94    77.82     2.05    73.96     8.30    33.55     3.30    13.31    29.35    51.58    92.04     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         8   18   +8       1.44    64.13    -1.30    77.17     8.02    36.78     6.66    22.23    44.60    67.82    96.34     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       8   16   +4       5.06    89.93     4.40    52.31     8.26    -6.67     0.00     0.04     0.20     0.81     9.40     0.90R    0.05  
Wolverhampton     8   15   +3       5.61    92.59     5.57    51.89     8.52    -4.45     0.01     0.04     0.22     0.87     9.21     1.14R    0.06  
Man_Utd           8   13   -1      -1.93    30.34    -6.83    66.59     8.15    18.07     0.44     2.37     7.53    17.94    72.72     0.00R    0.00  
Watford           8   13   -1       4.02    85.66     2.51    46.18     8.00   -16.09     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     2.08     4.53R    0.38  
Leicester         8   12   +2       0.64    56.93     1.66    53.12     8.46    -0.20     0.00     0.04     0.23     1.01    11.57     0.79R    0.04  
Everton           8   12   +1      -0.06    49.44    -0.44    50.39     8.25    -4.98     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.45     6.48     1.62R    0.10  
Burnley           8    8   -2      -3.26    20.34    -2.55    41.38     7.80   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.57    12.00R    1.25  
Brighton          8    8   -4       0.19    53.92     1.47    41.96     7.97   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.80    11.43R    1.37  
Crystal_Palace    8    7   -4      -3.43    18.87    -3.11    39.70     7.86   -18.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.42    17.53R    2.40  
West_Ham          8    7   -5      -0.96    41.59     0.45    43.68     8.28   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.31     9.25R    1.18  
Southampton       8    5   -8      -3.76    15.46    -4.49    38.97     7.97   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27    20.96R    3.52  
Fulham            8    5  -12      -1.80    32.34    -2.93    33.10     8.26   -37.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    50.21R   15.05  
Huddersfield      8    3  -13      -2.54    21.25    -3.29    26.13     7.02   -43.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.62R   43.85  
Newcastle         8    2   -7      -5.76     3.88    -1.74    40.02     8.16   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.42    16.95R    2.73  
Cardiff           8    2  -13      -4.07     9.78    -4.04    28.85     7.81   -37.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    70.06R   28.02  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Bristol_City 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Sheff_Utd       12   25   +8       6.62    91.02     5.06    75.57     9.41    13.86     8.60    20.38    60.72    29.03P    0.07R    0.01  
West_Brom       12   24  +14       1.22    59.04     3.78    86.61     9.56    39.29    48.01    66.92    92.10    75.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    12   23  +13       4.66    83.13    10.02    76.08     9.33    22.57     9.55    22.61    64.51    32.41P    0.07R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   12   22   +8       1.85    64.73     2.72    79.76     8.98    24.21    15.93    35.43    78.20    48.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   12   19   +4       3.55    77.47     5.47    63.61     9.22     0.75     0.59     2.11    15.89     4.60P    2.54R    0.32  
Sheff_Wed       12   19   +1       2.37    68.53     0.81    68.26     9.33     4.91     1.79     5.65    30.56    10.87P    0.83R    0.09  
Brentford       12   18   +6      -0.82    43.39     2.40    70.01     9.43    14.05     3.15     8.61    39.14    15.99P    0.52R    0.06  
Derby           12   18   +2      -1.83    35.64    -2.93    68.79     9.14     8.35     2.13     6.29    32.72    13.29P    0.56R    0.06  
Norwich         12   18   +0       2.25    68.08     1.07    64.83     9.24     0.02     0.70     2.52    19.11     5.85P    1.94R    0.27  
Blackburn       12   18   -1       1.69    63.62    -0.79    63.07     9.41    -3.24     0.58     1.97    14.81     4.60P    3.24R    0.50  
Swansea         12   17   +3      -1.95    34.79    -0.77    71.01     9.40    13.92     3.54    10.05    42.72    19.67P    0.35R    0.03  
Wigan           12   17   -2      -0.33    47.91    -3.34    65.47     9.44     0.96     1.09     3.52    21.29     7.85P    1.92R    0.22  
Bristol_City    12   16   +2      -0.82    43.70     1.57    64.48     9.40     4.65     0.75     2.70    19.07     6.32P    2.21R    0.32  
Stoke           12   16   -1      -2.13    33.47    -3.39    68.30     9.73     7.68     2.18     6.53    32.20    13.29P    1.15R    0.13  
Aston_Villa     12   15   +0      -4.05    20.68    -3.93    66.52     9.30     7.32     1.31     4.07    25.55     9.69P    1.26R    0.14  
Bolton          12   15   -5       3.07    76.08     1.87    48.90     8.43   -23.60     0.01     0.02     0.46     0.09P   36.14R   10.80  
Birmingham      12   14   +1       0.55    56.14     5.29    51.85     8.67   -11.39     0.00     0.05     1.23     0.23P   22.87R    5.51  
QPR             12   14  -10       0.75    57.56    -4.86    51.19     8.86   -25.01     0.01     0.06     1.08     0.21P   27.90R    7.70  
Rotherham       12   11  -10      -0.27    49.92    -1.59    42.82     8.82   -34.14     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.03P   64.56R   33.94  
Millwall        12   10   -6      -4.45    17.86    -3.06    54.28     9.16    -9.43     0.03     0.16     2.53     0.62P   16.84R    4.10  
Reading         12    9   -5      -4.83    15.43    -0.40    47.85     9.00   -17.34     0.00     0.03     0.51     0.12P   40.12R   14.17  
Preston         12    9   -6      -6.56     8.13    -4.53    55.30     9.33    -6.73     0.05     0.23     3.48     1.01P   14.33R    3.43  
Ipswich         12    9   -7      -5.56    11.82    -4.30    49.55     8.96   -16.37     0.01     0.02     0.74     0.17P   32.65R    9.94  
Hull            12    8   -9      -6.73     7.79    -6.17    51.03     9.26   -15.29     0.01     0.05     1.22     0.29P   27.89R    8.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 1 2 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           13   30  +12       9.16    96.28     7.61    79.31     9.26    17.83     9.44    23.63    74.02    35.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough         13   27  +11       6.36    88.60     6.76    82.24     9.47    26.32    15.50    35.88    83.29    48.23P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley             12   25  +17       1.74    62.52     6.52    88.79     9.65    43.06    43.48    65.80    94.49    76.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster            13   24   +5       5.34    84.67     3.77    70.37     9.24     6.44     1.57     5.27    37.65    12.05P    0.81R    0.04  
Sunderland           12   23  +11       0.95    56.48     2.47    84.39     9.73    33.50    23.91    46.71    87.73    60.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   13   23   +4       5.67    85.85     4.59    65.50     9.38    -0.17     0.60     2.12    20.36     5.61P    2.84R    0.16  
Walsall              12   22   +3       5.62    87.22     3.06    66.69     9.33     0.20     0.77     2.63    23.82     6.83P    2.08R    0.11  
Fleetwood_Town       13   20   +9       0.54    54.28     6.63    70.15     9.20    16.11     1.41     5.15    38.73    13.65P    0.70R    0.04  
Southend             13   20   +1       1.53    61.78     0.07    65.04     9.16     0.41     0.44     1.66    18.81     5.08P    2.94R    0.17  
Luton                13   19   +1       1.58    62.34     1.79    66.97     9.57     4.76     0.71     2.66    26.01     7.89P    2.33R    0.15  
Charlton             12   18   +1       0.44    53.74    -0.56    68.22     9.45     6.19     1.01     3.66    29.91    10.04P    1.48R    0.08  
Coventry             13   18   -2       2.52    69.71     1.13    56.67     8.98   -10.47     0.03     0.15     4.00     0.82P   15.83R    2.02  
Scunthorpe           13   17   -6      -1.14    41.91    -6.16    66.27     9.49    -0.27     0.56     2.24    23.03     7.20P    2.85R    0.22  
Blackpool            11   16   +3       0.19    52.05     1.88    64.03     9.46     3.25     0.40     1.50    17.31     5.07P    4.08R    0.33  
Burton_Albion        12   14   -2      -2.75    29.82    -2.46    58.58     9.56    -4.73     0.09     0.45     7.05     1.99P   12.14R    1.57  
Rochdale             13   13   -9      -2.13    34.70    -4.41    55.18     9.12   -14.30     0.02     0.12     2.84     0.59P   21.17R    3.49  
Shrewsbury           13   12   -2      -6.12    11.30    -2.70    58.35     8.94    -0.09     0.04     0.24     5.66     1.62P   11.05R    1.23  
Wycombe              13   12   -5      -2.23    34.10     0.38    46.35     8.96   -22.38     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.05P   56.92R   18.15  
Gillingham           12   11   -7      -2.94    27.79    -2.91    52.78     9.37   -14.76     0.01     0.08     2.03     0.42P   29.71R    6.16  
AFC_Wimbledon        13   11   -8      -3.46    24.51    -3.25    48.12     8.58   -19.30     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.07P   48.04R   12.23  
Bristol_Rovers       13   10   -4      -6.75     9.05    -2.50    50.20     8.88   -11.59     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.21P   37.96R    8.10  
Bradford             13   10  -10      -5.64    12.69    -6.80    51.06     9.05   -16.18     0.00     0.02     1.00     0.26P   35.61R    7.88  
Oxford_Utd           13    9  -10      -6.75     8.49    -6.63    49.18     9.09   -18.21     0.00     0.01     0.71     0.16P   43.85R   10.97  
Plymouth             13    7  -13      -7.67     5.15    -8.27    43.82     8.81   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   67.50R   26.88  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, Cambridge_Utd 0 1 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     13   31  +17       8.91    96.33    10.64    86.57     9.10    32.52    36.59    71.85    94.00    77.61P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           13   27  +12       5.07    83.85     5.78    82.79     9.02    27.94    20.86    56.41    88.25    64.94P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   13   27   +0       9.47    96.76     0.49    68.60     9.00    -5.56     1.26     7.54    33.20    11.65P    0.10R    0.00  
MK_Dons          13   24   +8       1.90    63.69     1.76    81.93     9.29    26.56    18.56    52.75    85.48    63.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         13   23   +5       5.59    86.06     5.40    66.91     9.33     3.30     0.96     6.09    28.60    10.46P    0.26R    0.02  
Colchester       13   22  +13       0.50    53.68     7.48    76.14     9.14    26.39     7.44    29.07    68.91    40.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        13   21   +3       2.06    65.92     1.37    66.00     9.00     2.78     0.61     4.59    25.09     9.09P    0.29R    0.03  
Forest_Green     13   20   +7       3.03    72.68     8.32    61.89     8.92     1.78     0.20     1.85    13.63     4.07P    0.90R    0.13  
Bury             13   19   +4      -1.20    40.98     0.44    72.68     9.54    16.66     3.78    17.99    53.66    27.67P    0.06R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     13   19   +0       2.48    69.05     2.10    61.86     8.96    -3.72     0.20     1.69    13.07     3.76P    0.93R    0.15  
Carlisle         13   19   -2       0.37    53.29    -3.20    65.17     9.09    -0.48     0.50     3.72    22.35     7.73P    0.44R    0.07  
Oldham           12   17   +4      -2.90    27.85    -1.13    72.59     9.76    17.29     4.09    18.57    53.15    29.02P    0.08R    0.01  
Swindon          13   17   -1      -1.71    37.44    -2.30    66.62     9.12     5.49     0.75     5.56    27.83    10.95P    0.25R    0.03  
Mansfield        11   16   +7      -1.57    37.14     3.36    72.52     9.40    19.67     3.61    17.32    53.38    27.76P    0.04R    0.00  
Yeovil           12   16   +5       0.97    58.59     7.21    63.66     9.40     6.39     0.45     3.17    19.31     6.37P    0.78R    0.14  
Port_Vale        13   14   -6      -1.99    35.58    -3.39    55.18     8.91   -11.94     0.02     0.29     3.54     0.92P    5.21R    1.03  
Morecambe        13   13  -11      -1.12    42.24    -5.43    47.83     8.56   -26.92     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.07P   21.30R    5.42  
Crewe            12   12   -1      -3.52    23.67     0.47    55.97     9.25    -5.04     0.05     0.50     4.89     1.44P    4.65R    0.94  
Northampton      13   12   -8      -5.25    15.74    -7.15    55.71     9.43   -10.27     0.04     0.44     4.66     1.44P    5.51R    1.23  
Notts_County     12   12  -10      -4.05    21.14    -9.12    56.34     9.39   -13.88     0.04     0.53     5.09     1.53P    5.14R    1.04  
Grimsby          12   11   -9      -1.91    35.00    -3.94    47.17     8.66   -24.03     0.00     0.02     0.38     0.07P   23.34R    6.24  
Cheltenham       12    9   -9      -5.08    14.30    -5.33    48.42     9.07   -20.16     0.00     0.03     0.75     0.18P   19.78R    5.33  
Cambridge_Utd    13    8  -15      -6.87     7.83   -10.62    46.86     8.81   -24.75     0.00     0.03     0.37     0.10P   25.32R    7.99  
Macclesfield     13    4  -13      -7.52     3.88    -3.19    32.13     8.28   -40.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.62R   70.18  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 October 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       16   34  +18       8.46    92.02    12.57    80.51     9.02    26.23    17.20    67.39    29.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham            16   34  +13       8.69    93.92     8.06    79.93     8.11    20.32    12.72    65.70    25.88P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      16   33  +19       5.30    82.22    10.61    84.84     8.32    35.07    32.46    84.60    48.26P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     16   33  +15       9.00    93.34    11.79    79.84     9.11    23.66    15.33    64.50    26.22P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     16   31   +6      10.14    96.13     7.42    71.25     8.28     5.17     1.85    24.53     5.69P    0.18R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          16   29  +15       1.84    62.38     7.14    78.81     8.31    27.77    11.33    62.06    26.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          16   29   +8       4.03    76.07     3.44    73.09     8.23    12.72     3.05    33.26    10.33P    0.08R    0.00  
Hartlepool         16   28   +4       4.65    79.31     1.81    69.33     8.24     4.93     1.12    18.50     4.94P    0.40R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.52    79.31     1.60    71.50     8.56     7.81     2.09    26.69     7.34P    0.28R    0.00  
Eastleigh          16   23   -5       3.28    72.36    -1.92    60.81     8.26    -9.57     0.05     3.06     0.57P    5.39R    0.08  
Boreham_Wood       16   22   -1      -0.92    43.80    -2.75    63.77     8.20     0.55     0.20     6.21     1.61P    2.20R    0.02  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.25    34.08    -7.56    71.21     8.75     7.91     2.20    26.09     9.39P    0.32R    0.00  
Barrow             16   21   +1      -0.67    46.01     1.22    59.35     8.28    -2.59     0.06     2.37     0.56P    6.68R    0.11  
Halifax            16   21   +0       1.88    64.20     3.61    57.78     8.07    -5.55     0.03     1.41     0.26P    9.05R    0.18  
Bromley            16   20   -3      -2.14    36.02    -3.31    61.22     8.49    -3.01     0.10     3.80     0.93P    4.96R    0.09  
Aldershot          16   20   -6      -2.15    35.93    -6.58    61.55     8.38    -4.94     0.09     3.89     0.97P    4.36R    0.08  
Ebbsfleet_United   16   18   -3      -2.93    30.73    -1.86    59.76     8.31    -1.74     0.04     2.56     0.60P    6.22R    0.12  
Maidenhead         16   17   -6      -2.26    35.30    -1.94    53.10     8.29   -13.94     0.00     0.46     0.07P   24.06R    1.06  
Chesterfield       16   14   -6      -9.91     4.12    -9.12    59.11     8.73     0.12     0.06     2.75     0.88P    8.02R    0.21  
Maidstone_United   16   14  -10      -3.10    29.18    -3.24    46.99     7.93   -21.18     0.00     0.04     0.01P   52.39R    4.27  
Havant_&_Wville    16   11  -12      -3.96    24.83    -0.89    40.35     8.31   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.84R   19.19  
Dag_&_Red          16    9  -12     -12.10     1.16   -10.99    47.56     8.35   -15.72     0.00     0.07     0.01P   47.90R    4.25  
Dover_Athletic     16    8  -19     -11.13     1.58   -14.81    47.12     8.36   -21.82     0.00     0.05     0.01P   51.34R    5.39  
Braintree_Town     16    7  -17      -6.65     9.03    -4.29    32.20     7.82   -41.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.29R   64.94