Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 11 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Fulham 1 5 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   20  +18       1.05    61.30     2.69    89.58     7.13    69.11    62.04    84.25    93.79    97.94    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           8   20  +13       3.71    84.86     4.49    78.08     8.04    40.04     8.40    26.08    49.85    72.81    97.12     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         8   20  +12       4.94    91.85     5.26    83.01     7.82    48.68    19.90    52.70    74.87    88.92    99.26     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   18   +9       2.99    78.26     2.14    73.82     8.32    33.27     3.13    13.13    29.29    51.51    91.79     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         8   18   +8       1.50    64.63    -1.18    76.77     8.14    36.14     6.08    21.07    43.09    66.33    95.67     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       8   16   +4       5.03    89.88     4.36    52.26     8.32    -6.75     0.00     0.03     0.18     0.77     9.51     0.88R    0.04  
Wolverhampton     8   15   +3       5.60    92.72     5.56    51.97     8.49    -4.35     0.00     0.05     0.28     0.92     9.05     1.11R    0.06  
Man_Utd           8   13   -1      -1.99    29.30    -6.91    66.85     8.21    18.47     0.45     2.63     8.19    19.06    73.37     0.01R    0.00  
Watford           8   13   -1       4.00    85.61     2.47    46.15     8.04   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     2.03     4.77R    0.44  
Leicester         8   12   +2       0.68    57.29     1.70    53.20     8.47    -0.05     0.00     0.04     0.30     1.08    11.74     0.86R    0.05  
Everton           8   12   +1      -0.11    48.98    -0.52    50.62     8.25    -4.63     0.01     0.02     0.13     0.48     6.87     1.37R    0.07  
Burnley           8    8   -2      -3.24    20.45    -2.53    41.42     7.88   -14.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.57    12.07R    1.27  
Brighton          8    8   -4       0.23    54.69     1.54    41.75     7.96   -15.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.64    11.92R    1.48  
Crystal_Palace    8    7   -4      -3.38    19.16    -3.02    39.55     7.90   -18.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37    18.14R    2.58  
West_Ham          8    7   -5      -0.97    41.28     0.47    43.72     8.30   -14.28     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.05     1.27     9.08R    1.07  
Southampton       8    5   -8      -3.74    15.51    -4.49    38.96     7.96   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27    20.71R    3.39  
Fulham            8    5  -12      -1.79    32.63    -2.91    33.11     8.18   -37.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    50.19R   14.91  
Huddersfield      8    3  -13      -2.55    20.92    -3.31    26.11     7.06   -43.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.61R   43.95  
Newcastle         8    2   -7      -5.79     3.73    -1.77    40.08     8.16   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.44    16.54R    2.46  
Cardiff           8    2  -13      -4.10     9.40    -4.04    28.88     7.83   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    69.73R   28.23  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Bristol_City 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Sheff_Utd       12   25   +8       6.60    90.95     5.05    75.66     9.31    13.95     8.59    20.60    61.02    29.03P    0.07R    0.00  
West_Brom       12   24  +14       1.27    59.44     3.86    86.48     9.61    39.05    47.44    66.32    92.01    74.53P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    12   23  +13       4.59    82.83     9.96    76.21     9.32    22.82     9.87    23.15    64.88    33.00P    0.06R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   12   22   +8       1.91    65.33     2.80    79.53     8.98    23.92    15.56    34.74    77.06    47.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   12   19   +4       3.51    77.33     5.43    63.57     9.29     0.70     0.63     2.13    15.93     4.59P    2.63R    0.35  
Sheff_Wed       12   19   +1       2.31    68.02     0.71    68.43     9.32     5.12     1.88     5.78    31.37    11.30P    0.75R    0.10  
Brentford       12   18   +6      -0.73    43.97     2.52    69.86     9.43    13.77     3.09     8.53    38.14    16.10P    0.59R    0.06  
Derby           12   18   +2      -1.76    35.87    -2.84    68.57     9.16     8.03     2.01     6.07    32.07    12.84P    0.58R    0.04  
Norwich         12   18   +0       2.23    67.94     1.03    64.78     9.32     0.01     0.78     2.52    19.09     5.82P    2.07R    0.30  
Blackburn       12   18   -1       1.68    63.59    -0.80    63.18     9.53    -3.14     0.68     2.24    15.38     5.10P    3.28R    0.50  
Swansea         12   17   +3      -2.00    34.01    -0.82    71.15     9.43    14.06     3.65    10.20    43.39    19.85P    0.44R    0.05  
Wigan           12   17   -2      -0.27    48.25    -3.31    65.61     9.50     1.12     1.22     3.61    21.70     8.01P    1.91R    0.28  
Bristol_City    12   16   +2      -0.81    43.83     1.57    64.44     9.41     4.61     0.72     2.61    19.19     6.25P    2.35R    0.33  
Stoke           12   16   -1      -2.23    32.89    -3.56    68.41     9.71     7.84     2.37     6.66    32.23    13.53P    1.04R    0.12  
Aston_Villa     12   15   +0      -4.11    20.25    -4.02    66.64     9.30     7.43     1.40     4.21    25.60     9.93P    1.28R    0.15  
Bolton          12   15   -5       3.09    76.50     1.90    48.76     8.38   -23.84     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.04P   36.44R   11.08  
Birmingham      12   14   +1       0.49    55.35     5.20    52.00     8.71   -11.15     0.01     0.04     1.20     0.22P   22.61R    5.43  
QPR             12   14  -10       0.73    57.52    -4.91    51.24     8.83   -24.88     0.01     0.06     1.00     0.19P   27.44R    7.75  
Rotherham       12   11  -10      -0.26    49.48    -1.56    42.88     8.81   -34.01     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   64.04R   33.83  
Millwall        12   10   -6      -4.35    18.47    -2.95    54.13     9.03    -9.65     0.02     0.13     2.28     0.54P   16.98R    3.88  
Reading         12    9   -5      -4.83    15.30    -0.38    47.91     8.99   -17.24     0.00     0.02     0.53     0.11P   39.72R   13.95  
Preston         12    9   -6      -6.51     8.03    -4.46    55.35     9.30    -6.71     0.05     0.25     3.42     0.95P   14.47R    3.54  
Ipswich         12    9   -7      -5.53    11.99    -4.22    49.33     9.00   -16.70     0.01     0.04     0.74     0.14P   33.97R   10.41  
Hull            12    8   -9      -6.76     7.72    -6.20    51.16     9.25   -15.11     0.02     0.06     1.25     0.28P   27.28R    7.84  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 October 2018, Blackpool 2 2 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           12   27  +11       7.96    94.77     7.20    77.88     9.35    17.17     8.55    22.08    70.88    33.39P    0.10R    0.00  
Peterborough         12   24   +9       5.28    84.88     5.61    80.22     9.72    23.64    13.58    31.64    78.49    43.90P    0.08R    0.01  
Sunderland           12   23  +11       0.91    56.14     2.37    84.55     9.80    33.85    27.67    51.14    88.72    63.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley             11   22  +16       0.64    54.00     6.48    87.48     9.89    42.41    41.27    63.44    93.12    74.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall              12   22   +3       5.68    87.55     3.11    66.93     9.34     0.47     0.87     3.13    26.39     7.49P    2.28R    0.14  
Doncaster            12   21   +4       4.06    79.33     3.23    68.22     9.33     4.79     1.26     4.12    31.39    10.00P    1.52R    0.10  
Accrington_Stanley   12   20   +2       4.54    82.11     3.27    62.57     9.56    -4.00     0.43     1.51    14.37     3.84P    6.64R    0.67  
Luton                12   19   +2       2.46    68.79     1.93    67.81     9.86     5.05     1.28     4.42    30.77    10.23P    2.32R    0.16  
Charlton             12   18   +1       0.39    53.51    -0.60    68.32     9.48     6.33     1.28     4.27    32.10    10.95P    1.81R    0.14  
Fleetwood_Town       12   17   +8      -0.85    43.47     6.00    68.10     9.40    14.45     1.14     4.17    32.79    11.43P    1.58R    0.10  
Southend             12   17   -1       0.42    53.87    -1.15    62.57     9.35    -2.87     0.32     1.31    14.23     4.08P    6.22R    0.54  
Scunthorpe           12   17   -4      -0.44    47.03    -5.28    68.96     9.71     3.73     1.48     5.24    34.61    12.34P    1.83R    0.13  
Blackpool            11   16   +3       0.17    52.06     1.82    64.22     9.52     3.58     0.50     1.85    19.37     5.85P    4.35R    0.36  
Coventry             12   15   -3       1.24    61.36     0.71    54.64     9.27   -12.13     0.03     0.14     3.26     0.72P   24.28R    4.17  
Rochdale             12   13   -8      -1.10    42.27    -3.98    56.74     9.46   -12.87     0.05     0.27     5.02     1.12P   18.81R    3.12  
Shrewsbury           12   12   -1      -4.92    15.72    -1.88    59.98     9.13     1.35     0.13     0.56     9.05     2.73P    9.38R    1.07  
Wycombe              12   12   -4      -1.26    41.35     0.85    48.28     9.36   -20.62     0.00     0.03     0.79     0.13P   50.22R   15.31  
Burton_Albion        11   11   -3      -4.05    20.11    -2.95    56.30     9.81    -6.72     0.06     0.32     5.48     1.58P   19.80R    3.43  
Gillingham           11   11   -5      -2.05    33.87    -1.69    54.83     9.59   -11.73     0.03     0.15     3.74     0.88P   24.50R    4.91  
AFC_Wimbledon        12   11   -7      -2.56    29.84    -2.94    49.37     8.83   -18.33     0.00     0.01     0.71     0.14P   44.70R   10.97  
Bristol_Rovers       12   10   -3      -5.57    12.66    -1.74    51.70     9.19   -10.39     0.02     0.07     1.66     0.42P   33.92R    7.36  
Bradford             12   10   -8      -4.60    16.89    -5.39    53.20     9.19   -12.89     0.02     0.09     2.26     0.53P   28.97R    5.66  
Plymouth             12    7  -11      -6.70     7.28    -6.90    46.01     9.13   -22.42     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.06P   59.47R   21.41  
Oxford_Utd           12    6  -12      -8.04     3.82    -8.07    46.53     9.34   -21.87     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.11P   57.17R   20.24  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 October 2018, Bury 2 2 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     12   28  +13       8.26    95.80     8.13    83.07     9.23    25.59    27.38    59.72    87.51    66.61P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           12   24  +10       4.09    79.53     4.77    80.70     9.32    25.31    19.85    49.86    81.81    58.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   24   -1       8.08    95.02    -0.16    66.56     9.24    -7.19     1.17     6.42    25.84     9.61P    0.23R    0.02  
MK_Dons          12   21   +7       0.70    55.24     1.34    80.60     9.43    26.10    19.36    49.82    81.64    60.13P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        12   21   +4       3.13    74.04     1.92    68.11     9.25     4.92     1.83     8.61    32.71    13.61P    0.16R    0.01  
Forest_Green     12   20   +8       4.17    80.28     8.98    63.66     9.21     3.48     0.58     3.72    18.43     6.33P    0.52R    0.08  
Tranmere         12   20   +4       4.55    82.25     5.31    65.88     9.66     3.17     1.28     6.50    25.34    10.38P    0.40R    0.05  
Colchester       12   19  +11      -0.37    46.98     6.61    74.43     9.36    24.35     7.62    26.05    61.06    35.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     12   19   +2       3.22    74.78     3.04    63.34     9.24    -1.54     0.54     3.27    17.13     5.84P    0.73R    0.14  
Carlisle         12   19   +0       1.76    64.39    -1.17    68.60     9.26     4.56     1.88     9.22    34.27    14.93P    0.13R    0.03  
Bury             12   18   +4      -0.74    44.08     0.52    73.44     9.87    17.36     6.21    23.01    56.01    32.12P    0.07R    0.01  
Oldham           12   17   +4      -2.79    28.67    -0.97    72.39     9.68    16.99     5.04    19.55    51.76    29.19P    0.05R    0.00  
Swindon          12   17   +1      -1.08    41.73    -1.49    68.34     9.44     8.02     1.85     9.45    34.72    15.64P    0.18R    0.03  
Mansfield        11   16   +7      -1.52    37.29     3.41    72.26     9.38    19.27     4.54    18.51    51.46    28.04P    0.07R    0.01  
Yeovil           12   16   +5       1.02    58.95     7.29    63.55     9.35     6.37     0.58     3.55    18.62     6.60P    0.78R    0.13  
Port_Vale        12   14   -2      -1.51    38.42    -0.82    58.07     9.05    -5.34     0.10     0.87     6.55     2.12P    2.45R    0.45  
Notts_County     12   12  -10      -4.11    20.95    -9.23    56.16     9.35   -14.24     0.05     0.67     4.81     1.61P    4.75R    1.03  
Crewe            11   11   -1      -3.29    24.13     0.22    55.95     9.54    -5.61     0.10     0.74     5.19     1.64P    4.84R    1.07  
Grimsby          12   11   -9      -1.92    34.93    -3.96    47.35     8.68   -23.74     0.00     0.02     0.36     0.08P   21.68R    6.21  
Morecambe        12   10  -13      -2.70    28.95    -7.33    44.39     8.70   -31.72     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   34.18R   11.39  
Cheltenham       12    9   -9      -5.15    13.93    -5.43    48.18     9.08   -20.43     0.00     0.05     0.61     0.14P   18.91R    5.44  
Northampton      12    9   -9      -6.54     9.17    -7.66    53.88     9.66   -11.55     0.04     0.37     3.36     1.09P    7.67R    2.21  
Cambridge_Utd    12    8  -14      -5.96    10.41   -10.24    48.16     9.02   -23.83     0.00     0.04     0.58     0.13P   19.64R    6.53  
Macclesfield     12    4  -12      -6.78     5.16    -3.08    32.85     8.49   -40.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    82.54R   65.14  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 October 2018, Aldershot 3 0 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       15   33  +18       9.32    94.81    13.36    82.44     9.25    28.69    22.10    74.90    35.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      15   32  +19       6.09    86.62    11.16    85.88     8.50    36.15    35.17    87.46    50.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     15   32  +15       9.70    95.18    12.27    80.74     9.47    24.50    17.19    68.50    28.39P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham            15   31  +12       7.39    91.53     7.51    77.83     8.25    18.76     7.91    57.15    20.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     15   28   +5       8.75    94.26     6.75    69.52     8.47     4.05     1.18    20.13     4.43P    0.50R    0.01  
Hartlepool         15   27   +4       4.72    80.39     1.42    69.02     8.40     3.91     1.04    18.95     4.71P    0.61R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          15   26  +13       1.17    58.46     6.51    77.23     8.57    25.87     8.01    55.92    22.14P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead          15   26   +7       2.83    69.53     3.07    72.14     8.55    12.68     2.48    31.31     9.49P    0.19R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.51    79.23     1.56    71.52     8.64     7.78     2.09    28.08     7.64P    0.31R    0.00  
Eastleigh          15   23   -4       4.44    79.40    -1.20    62.40     8.50    -8.21     0.20     5.17     1.00P    4.66R    0.04  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.29    33.92    -7.63    71.30     8.75     8.02     2.11    27.68     9.74P    0.43R    0.00  
Barrow             15   21   +2       0.36    53.14     1.71    60.83     8.45    -1.43     0.09     3.98     0.88P    5.74R    0.06  
Halifax            15   20   +0       2.16    66.64     3.52    57.81     8.27    -5.99     0.03     1.70     0.30P   10.67R    0.22  
Boreham_Wood       15   19   -3      -1.84    37.08    -3.74    61.76     8.43    -1.94     0.10     4.57     1.17P    4.74R    0.05  
Ebbsfleet_United   15   18   -2      -1.90    37.18    -1.37    61.38     8.51    -0.33     0.10     4.34     1.10P    5.41R    0.10  
Bromley            15   17   -4      -3.38    27.58    -3.77    59.55     8.74    -4.08     0.07     3.05     0.78P    8.81R    0.21  
Maidenhead         15   17   -4      -1.66    38.63    -1.11    55.10     8.54   -10.82     0.02     0.95     0.14P   19.39R    0.68  
Aldershot          15   17   -7      -3.54    26.27    -7.24    59.25     8.46    -6.90     0.05     2.45     0.60P    8.47R    0.18  
Maidstone_United   15   14   -8      -2.54    32.42    -2.41    48.03     8.03   -19.69     0.00     0.07     0.01P   49.32R    3.32  
Chesterfield       15   13   -6      -9.38     4.43    -8.85    59.61     8.88     0.33     0.06     3.48     1.13P    8.36R    0.24  
Havant_&_Wville    15   11  -11      -3.12    29.28    -0.55    41.33     8.67   -30.89     0.00     0.01     0.00P   77.58R   16.17  
Dag_&_Red          15    9  -11     -11.00     1.66   -10.34    49.03     8.50   -14.44     0.00     0.13     0.03P   43.07R    3.13  
Dover_Athletic     15    7  -19     -11.09     1.26   -15.36    46.94     8.51   -22.67     0.00     0.05     0.01P   54.67R    5.46  
Braintree_Town     15    6  -17      -6.72     8.00    -5.24    31.23     8.04   -43.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.99R   70.13