Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 8 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Fulham 1 5 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   20  +18       1.05    61.07     2.72    89.38     7.17    68.69    60.57    83.12    93.34    97.78    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           8   20  +13       3.71    84.81     4.53    78.15     8.02    40.19     8.18    25.92    50.03    72.99    97.21     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         8   20  +12       4.88    91.40     5.16    83.23     7.83    49.22    20.96    53.69    75.21    89.10    99.28     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   18   +9       2.96    77.95     2.09    73.89     8.39    33.42     3.26    13.24    29.66    51.71    91.73     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         8   18   +8       1.49    64.56    -1.27    76.98     8.05    36.51     6.59    21.46    43.52    66.80    96.15     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       8   16   +4       5.04    89.77     4.34    52.42     8.30    -6.48     0.00     0.05     0.24     0.91     9.89     0.94R    0.06  
Wolverhampton     8   15   +3       5.63    92.93     5.60    51.88     8.54    -4.51     0.01     0.05     0.24     0.83     9.13     1.16R    0.06  
Man_Utd           8   13   -1      -1.97    29.94    -6.88    66.59     8.18    18.10     0.43     2.42     7.38    18.24    72.82     0.00R    0.00  
Watford           8   13   -1       4.02    85.75     2.49    46.03     7.94   -16.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     2.04     4.62R    0.38  
Leicester         8   12   +2       0.67    57.27     1.69    53.17     8.41    -0.10     0.00     0.03     0.27     1.07    11.48     0.83R    0.05  
Everton           8   12   +1      -0.06    49.42    -0.43    50.39     8.28    -4.99     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.40     6.62     1.60R    0.12  
Burnley           8    8   -2      -3.26    19.88    -2.54    41.34     7.82   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.51    12.20R    1.32  
Brighton          8    8   -4       0.25    54.86     1.59    41.75     7.99   -15.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.69    12.11R    1.45  
Crystal_Palace    8    7   -4      -3.38    19.23    -3.03    39.64     7.90   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.38    17.88R    2.48  
West_Ham          8    7   -5      -0.96    41.31     0.46    43.66     8.27   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.23     9.18R    1.18  
Southampton       8    5   -8      -3.76    15.24    -4.50    38.97     7.95   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35    20.74R    3.36  
Fulham            8    5  -12      -1.80    32.35    -2.86    33.14     8.29   -37.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    50.29R   15.06  
Huddersfield      8    3  -13      -2.52    21.46    -3.23    26.07     7.04   -43.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.88R   44.51  
Newcastle         8    2   -7      -5.81     3.79    -1.83    40.20     8.20   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.44    16.45R    2.49  
Cardiff           8    2  -13      -4.13     9.32    -4.10    29.07     7.87   -36.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    69.12R   27.49  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 October 2018, Bristol_City 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Sheff_Utd       12   25   +8       6.59    90.89     5.05    75.56     9.42    13.79     8.83    20.80    60.77    28.82P    0.10R    0.01  
West_Brom       12   24  +14       1.33    59.66     3.98    86.36     9.67    38.82    47.16    65.86    91.64    74.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    12   23  +13       4.65    83.02    10.07    75.92     9.34    22.41     9.56    22.46    63.90    32.26P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   12   22   +8       1.93    65.33     2.79    79.54     9.04    23.92    15.63    34.60    77.33    47.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   12   19   +4       3.50    77.16     5.43    63.62     9.22     0.79     0.60     2.13    16.17     4.71P    2.53R    0.32  
Sheff_Wed       12   19   +1       2.31    68.26     0.73    68.38     9.24     5.09     1.80     5.57    31.08    11.16P    0.76R    0.10  
Brentford       12   18   +6      -0.79    43.64     2.41    69.98     9.45    14.02     3.11     8.93    39.06    16.50P    0.52R    0.05  
Derby           12   18   +2      -1.81    35.82    -2.89    68.71     9.22     8.29     2.17     6.39    32.48    13.21P    0.56R    0.05  
Norwich         12   18   +0       2.25    68.05     1.06    64.78     9.21    -0.05     0.68     2.56    18.72     5.87P    1.89R    0.23  
Blackburn       12   18   -1       1.67    63.66    -0.83    63.34     9.50    -2.89     0.72     2.29    15.65     5.06P    3.12R    0.49  
Swansea         12   17   +3      -1.99    34.05    -0.82    71.18     9.47    14.12     3.93    10.50    43.39    20.39P    0.38R    0.05  
Wigan           12   17   -2      -0.30    47.92    -3.35    65.61     9.51     1.13     1.20     3.62    21.87     7.97P    1.88R    0.24  
Bristol_City    12   16   +2      -0.75    44.43     1.70    64.26     9.34     4.30     0.74     2.59    18.37     6.02P    2.36R    0.36  
Stoke           12   16   -1      -2.16    33.48    -3.47    68.44     9.76     7.90     2.41     6.97    32.74    13.82P    1.06R    0.14  
Aston_Villa     12   15   +0      -4.04    20.66    -3.92    66.49     9.23     7.27     1.34     4.14    25.24     9.64P    1.22R    0.17  
Bolton          12   15   -5       3.07    76.14     1.83    48.87     8.48   -23.59     0.00     0.02     0.46     0.08P   36.25R   10.97  
Birmingham      12   14   +1       0.55    56.02     5.33    51.78     8.79   -11.52     0.00     0.03     1.26     0.24P   23.48R    5.99  
QPR             12   14  -10       0.73    57.49    -4.92    51.14     8.83   -25.04     0.00     0.06     1.03     0.21P   27.90R    7.87  
Rotherham       12   11  -10      -0.35    49.13    -1.75    43.08     8.83   -33.69     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   63.62R   32.87  
Millwall        12   10   -6      -4.49    17.49    -3.12    54.23     9.06    -9.42     0.02     0.13     2.39     0.56P   16.92R    3.93  
Reading         12    9   -5      -4.82    15.25    -0.39    47.80     8.99   -17.42     0.00     0.03     0.58     0.13P   40.23R   14.38  
Preston         12    9   -6      -6.54     8.20    -4.49    55.31     9.37    -6.75     0.05     0.22     3.69     0.94P   14.64R    3.53  
Ipswich         12    9   -7      -5.56    11.95    -4.31    49.58     9.00   -16.29     0.01     0.03     0.78     0.16P   32.77R   10.08  
Hull            12    8   -9      -6.70     7.92    -6.12    51.07     9.24   -15.22     0.02     0.07     1.27     0.32P   27.74R    8.19  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 October 2018, Blackpool 2 2 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           12   27  +11       8.04    94.86     7.32    77.67     9.35    16.90     8.42    21.39    70.22    32.42P    0.09R    0.00  
Peterborough         12   24   +9       5.28    85.22     5.62    80.12     9.65    23.50    13.55    31.24    78.30    43.03P    0.07R    0.00  
Sunderland           12   23  +11       0.90    56.17     2.37    84.66     9.66    33.99    28.38    51.89    89.12    64.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley             11   22  +16       0.68    54.44     6.52    87.29     9.84    42.09    40.65    63.28    92.99    74.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall              12   22   +3       5.63    87.40     3.06    66.83     9.21     0.39     0.84     3.10    25.66     7.49P    2.16R    0.15  
Doncaster            12   21   +4       4.04    79.24     3.21    68.35     9.40     4.95     1.28     4.38    32.10    10.22P    1.71R    0.11  
Accrington_Stanley   12   20   +2       4.66    82.52     3.44    62.38     9.63    -4.23     0.39     1.48    14.43     3.90P    7.07R    0.73  
Luton                12   19   +2       2.51    69.41     2.05    67.65     9.89     4.81     1.29     4.32    30.61    10.16P    2.52R    0.21  
Charlton             12   18   +1       0.41    53.63    -0.60    68.24     9.47     6.27     1.22     4.36    32.17    11.07P    1.70R    0.13  
Fleetwood_Town       12   17   +8      -0.81    43.77     6.04    68.03     9.43    14.44     1.22     4.37    32.52    11.60P    1.64R    0.13  
Southend             12   17   -1       0.43    53.75    -1.15    62.48     9.39    -2.91     0.35     1.32    14.25     4.04P    6.45R    0.61  
Scunthorpe           12   17   -4      -0.43    47.11    -5.24    68.90     9.76     3.67     1.51     5.22    34.94    12.49P    2.00R    0.17  
Blackpool            11   16   +3       0.21    52.32     1.87    64.26     9.51     3.56     0.54     1.93    19.38     5.90P    4.37R    0.35  
Coventry             12   15   -3       1.15    60.80     0.55    54.90     9.18   -11.70     0.03     0.14     3.31     0.76P   23.44R    3.81  
Rochdale             12   13   -8      -1.03    42.89    -3.91    56.72     9.42   -12.93     0.05     0.24     4.96     1.12P   18.84R    3.11  
Shrewsbury           12   12   -1      -4.95    15.62    -1.94    59.98     9.09     1.32     0.11     0.51     8.88     2.74P    9.18R    1.02  
Wycombe              12   12   -4      -1.28    41.19     0.79    48.36     9.27   -20.44     0.01     0.02     0.81     0.16P   50.10R   14.85  
Burton_Albion        11   11   -3      -4.12    19.47    -3.05    56.52     9.79    -6.40     0.08     0.40     5.79     1.66P   18.98R    3.23  
Gillingham           11   11   -5      -2.09    33.59    -1.71    54.82     9.68   -11.73     0.04     0.21     3.98     0.98P   24.54R    4.96  
AFC_Wimbledon        12   11   -7      -2.60    30.00    -3.00    49.45     8.87   -18.20     0.00     0.03     0.70     0.16P   45.00R   11.05  
Bristol_Rovers       12   10   -3      -5.61    12.50    -1.81    51.80     9.22   -10.24     0.02     0.07     1.66     0.39P   34.03R    7.47  
Bradford             12   10   -8      -4.70    16.46    -5.50    53.42     9.31   -12.59     0.02     0.10     2.44     0.63P   28.50R    5.76  
Plymouth             12    7  -11      -6.76     7.13    -6.97    46.09     9.06   -22.29     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P   59.37R   21.28  
Oxford_Utd           12    6  -12      -7.96     4.00    -7.99    46.34     9.20   -22.22     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.08P   58.23R   20.88  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 October 2018, Bury 2 2 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     12   28  +13       8.27    95.71     8.16    83.04     9.28    25.58    26.88    59.23    87.67    66.55P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           12   24  +10       4.13    79.78     4.78    80.81     9.40    25.40    20.05    50.26    81.95    58.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   12   24   -1       8.09    95.15    -0.12    66.47     9.22    -7.27     1.15     6.24    25.60     9.36P    0.24R    0.03  
MK_Dons          12   21   +7       0.61    54.50     1.22    80.86     9.54    26.48    20.59    50.90    82.21    60.95P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        12   21   +4       3.14    74.09     1.92    67.96     9.25     4.69     1.66     8.48    32.12    13.19P    0.18R    0.01  
Forest_Green     12   20   +8       4.08    79.94     8.85    63.69     9.15     3.54     0.60     3.75    18.16     6.35P    0.60R    0.09  
Tranmere         12   20   +4       4.55    82.01     5.32    65.94     9.67     3.20     1.27     6.57    25.68    10.35P    0.41R    0.07  
Colchester       12   19  +11      -0.37    46.83     6.61    74.49     9.36    24.49     7.27    26.29    61.37    36.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     12   19   +2       3.14    74.04     2.92    63.46     9.28    -1.30     0.53     3.52    17.60     6.29P    0.70R    0.11  
Carlisle         12   19   +0       1.76    64.49    -1.18    68.48     9.30     4.49     1.86     9.23    34.04    14.87P    0.18R    0.03  
Bury             12   18   +4      -0.61    45.17     0.72    73.12     9.89    16.83     6.00    22.07    54.60    31.14P    0.07R    0.00  
Oldham           12   17   +4      -2.83    28.69    -1.05    72.39     9.67    16.98     4.89    19.45    51.80    29.30P    0.07R    0.01  
Swindon          12   17   +1      -1.02    42.18    -1.39    68.09     9.38     7.68     1.79     8.96    33.52    14.95P    0.20R    0.02  
Mansfield        11   16   +7      -1.51    37.38     3.42    72.30     9.34    19.39     4.57    18.44    51.96    28.15P    0.06R    0.00  
Yeovil           12   16   +5       0.94    58.47     7.16    63.79     9.40     6.63     0.63     3.90    19.61     7.04P    0.77R    0.14  
Port_Vale        12   14   -2      -1.50    38.49    -0.79    58.20     9.03    -5.12     0.10     0.88     6.74     2.16P    2.34R    0.48  
Notts_County     12   12  -10      -4.07    20.90    -9.20    56.21     9.39   -14.12     0.05     0.65     4.87     1.54P    4.72R    0.95  
Crewe            11   11   -1      -3.33    24.06     0.15    56.12     9.39    -5.36     0.08     0.67     5.24     1.58P    4.41R    0.86  
Grimsby          12   11   -9      -1.95    34.83    -4.00    47.25     8.68   -23.90     0.00     0.02     0.41     0.08P   21.51R    6.08  
Morecambe        12   10  -13      -2.75    28.80    -7.37    44.41     8.64   -31.78     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.03P   34.08R   10.88  
Cheltenham       12    9   -9      -5.11    14.04    -5.37    48.27     9.01   -20.26     0.00     0.04     0.71     0.15P   18.59R    5.25  
Northampton      12    9   -9      -6.61     8.76    -7.78    53.99     9.64   -11.34     0.03     0.40     3.40     1.13P    7.57R    2.10  
Cambridge_Utd    12    8  -14      -5.91    10.37   -10.15    48.11     9.04   -23.94     0.00     0.04     0.59     0.15P   20.01R    6.36  
Macclesfield     12    4  -12      -6.67     5.62    -2.83    32.52     8.49   -40.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.28R   66.53  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 October 2018, Aldershot 3 0 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       15   33  +18       9.40    94.78    13.48    82.27     9.34    28.47    21.75    74.37    34.49P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      15   32  +19       6.03    86.49    11.08    85.99     8.57    36.33    35.68    87.63    51.49P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     15   32  +15       9.52    94.81    12.01    81.12     9.43    25.08    17.62    70.25    29.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham            15   31  +12       7.45    91.71     7.60    77.75     8.33    18.64     7.97    56.82    20.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     15   28   +5       8.82    94.40     6.88    69.37     8.46     3.81     1.08    19.53     4.09P    0.54R    0.00  
Hartlepool         15   27   +4       4.80    80.69     1.51    68.99     8.43     3.85     0.99    19.00     4.71P    0.62R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          15   26  +13       1.22    58.72     6.55    77.14     8.61    25.74     8.02    55.81    22.01P    0.05R    0.00  
Gateshead          15   26   +7       2.99    70.72     3.32    71.80     8.53    12.19     2.15    29.96     8.72P    0.27R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   26   +3       4.43    78.59     1.46    71.58     8.58     7.92     1.91    28.40     7.59P    0.29R    0.00  
Eastleigh          15   23   -4       4.47    79.65    -1.19    62.38     8.45    -8.21     0.15     5.09     0.98P    4.62R    0.07  
Barnet             15   22   -2      -2.17    34.61    -7.50    71.17     8.88     7.84     2.14    27.68     9.93P    0.51R    0.00  
Barrow             15   21   +2       0.35    53.06     1.72    60.83     8.45    -1.45     0.11     3.97     0.94P    5.78R    0.06  
Halifax            15   20   +0       2.10    65.83     3.44    57.86     8.34    -5.92     0.03     1.79     0.37P   10.98R    0.24  
Boreham_Wood       15   19   -3      -1.82    37.27    -3.72    61.77     8.41    -1.87     0.10     4.67     1.16P    4.87R    0.04  
Ebbsfleet_United   15   18   -2      -1.96    36.57    -1.42    61.51     8.53    -0.20     0.10     4.58     1.16P    5.12R    0.07  
Bromley            15   17   -4      -3.41    27.28    -3.80    59.65     8.69    -3.99     0.08     3.18     0.68P    8.30R    0.21  
Maidenhead         15   17   -4      -1.65    39.01    -1.09    55.02     8.56   -10.95     0.01     0.89     0.17P   19.82R    0.60  
Aldershot          15   17   -7      -3.52    26.33    -7.17    59.16     8.45    -7.02     0.03     2.42     0.55P    8.83R    0.20  
Maidstone_United   15   14   -8      -2.61    32.20    -2.55    48.24     8.11   -19.39     0.00     0.08     0.01P   48.64R    3.22  
Chesterfield       15   13   -6      -9.45     4.25    -8.92    59.71     8.85     0.42     0.08     3.64     1.19P    8.15R    0.21  
Havant_&_Wville    15   11  -11      -3.15    28.74    -0.65    41.43     8.57   -30.70     0.00     0.02     0.00    77.63R   15.28  
Dag_&_Red          15    9  -11     -11.06     1.62   -10.45    49.21     8.52   -14.24     0.00     0.15     0.03P   42.61R    2.86  
Dover_Athletic     15    7  -19     -11.18     1.38   -15.48    46.97     8.50   -22.64     0.00     0.07     0.02P   54.87R    5.44  
Braintree_Town     15    6  -17      -6.72     7.83    -5.12    31.04     7.91   -43.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.42R   71.49