Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 7 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 October 2018, Bournemouth 2 1 Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   19  +18       1.58    71.51     2.44    89.85     7.47    70.02    62.25    85.11    94.71    98.30    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   19  +12       5.25    95.27     4.93    83.66     8.08    50.07    23.55    59.02    80.08    91.73    99.32     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           7   17  +10       2.88    80.14     2.64    75.37     8.34    35.11     4.64    17.99    39.99    65.47    94.61     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   15   +7       1.10    61.10    -0.15    77.65     8.16    40.34     7.39    26.39    53.30    75.32    96.82     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           7   15   +5       2.45    75.01     0.14    71.27     8.65    27.58     1.80     9.03    22.81    44.04    86.93     0.00R    0.00  
Watford           7   13   +3       4.95    91.78     5.71    49.71     8.30    -8.52     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.52     6.57     2.45R    0.13  
Bournemouth       7   13   +0       3.82    85.60     1.03    48.35     8.37   -15.10     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.36     5.18     3.72R    0.27  
Leicester         7   12   +3       2.13    72.34     2.74    55.54     8.73     2.45     0.01     0.17     0.85     3.05    21.01     0.57R    0.05  
Wolverhampton     7   12   +2       4.02    87.20     4.74    49.64     8.73    -6.80     0.00     0.04     0.18     0.71     7.33     3.03R    0.29  
Man_Utd           7   10   -2      -2.74    22.12    -6.66    65.68     8.27    18.09     0.35     2.22     7.77    19.81    70.18     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           7    9   +0      -1.81    30.58    -1.64    47.69     8.51    -8.11     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.37     4.79     4.34R    0.35  
Burnley           7    7   -2      -2.36    26.07    -1.83    42.82     8.12   -13.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.25    11.25R    1.12  
Crystal_Palace    7    7   -3      -2.05    29.06    -2.05    42.11     8.13   -16.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.05    13.08R    1.47  
West_Ham          7    7   -4      -0.00    52.11     0.97    45.04     8.57   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     2.54     8.65R    1.03  
Brighton          7    5   -5      -1.12    38.43     1.26    40.50     8.16   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.68    18.26R    2.37  
Southampton       7    5   -5      -3.23    18.00    -2.69    40.94     8.21   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.78    16.82R    2.31  
Fulham            7    5   -8      -1.49    34.42    -0.89    35.72     8.50   -31.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.28    40.10R    9.27  
Newcastle         7    2   -6      -5.19     4.83    -1.95    40.55     8.29   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.76    17.80R    2.49  
Cardiff           7    2  -12      -3.78    10.87    -4.95    28.45     7.89   -40.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    74.47R   31.58  
Huddersfield      7    2  -13      -2.75    17.24    -3.78    25.72     7.16   -44.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    85.45R   47.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 October 2018, Blackburn 0 2 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    11   22  +13       5.27    87.06    10.44    76.74     9.57    23.11    10.56    23.09    64.65    32.47P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   11   22  +10       3.41    77.02     4.96    83.00     9.11    28.95    25.47    46.95    85.53    58.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       11   22   +7       5.55    88.18     4.97    74.34     9.57    13.44     6.57    15.37    53.64    23.12P    0.11R    0.01  
West_Brom       11   21  +11       0.77    55.59     2.84    84.60     9.86    35.54    35.53    55.09    87.26    65.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         11   18   +1       3.43    77.02     1.76    67.16     9.44     2.47     1.25     3.86    25.10     8.07P    0.97R    0.14  
Brentford       11   17   +6      -0.54    45.56     2.24    69.81     9.66    13.23     3.02     7.98    36.07    14.86P    0.51R    0.03  
Swansea         11   17   +4      -0.32    47.29     0.61    73.78     9.68    16.82     6.01    14.61    52.20    25.62P    0.16R    0.01  
Derby           11   17   +2      -1.33    38.89    -2.75    69.57     9.40     8.97     2.53     6.81    34.09    13.88P    0.40R    0.05  
Wigan           11   17   +2       0.17    51.68    -0.66    69.61     9.77     8.96     2.77     7.35    34.86    14.31P    0.66R    0.09  
Bristol_City    11   16   +3       0.66    56.16     2.64    66.86     9.57     7.20     1.35     3.99    25.03     8.55P    1.18R    0.15  
Nott'm_Forest   11   16   +2       1.84    66.19     3.46    59.90     9.39    -4.48     0.19     0.75     8.08     2.05P    5.67R    1.09  
Sheff_Wed       11   16   +0       0.68    56.06    -0.29    65.70     9.45     2.48     0.99     3.13    20.72     6.86P    1.45R    0.18  
Aston_Villa     11   15   +1      -2.87    27.14    -3.19    68.65     9.36     9.56     2.02     5.70    31.04    12.29P    0.57R    0.06  
Blackburn       11   15   -2       0.34    53.54    -1.32    60.78     9.74    -5.35     0.35     1.12    10.12     3.05P    5.50R    1.00  
Bolton          11   15   -4       4.13    83.53     2.43    50.28     8.69   -22.65     0.01     0.03     0.70     0.10P   28.29R    8.10  
Stoke           11   13   -2      -3.65    22.33    -4.24    65.89    10.02     5.44     1.31     3.78    23.30     8.97P    1.99R    0.30  
QPR             11   13  -10       0.98    59.76    -5.12    51.21     9.00   -25.64     0.01     0.05     1.02     0.20P   26.01R    7.43  
Birmingham      11   11   -1      -0.46    47.33     4.16    49.68     8.87   -13.97     0.00     0.03     0.67     0.13P   29.65R    8.97  
Rotherham       11   11   -8       0.33    55.03    -0.84    45.21     9.14   -29.95     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.03P   51.29R   23.15  
Reading         11    9   -2      -4.60    15.73     0.46    49.03     9.13   -14.72     0.00     0.04     0.68     0.16P   32.62R   11.10  
Hull            11    8   -8      -5.78    10.48    -5.82    52.37     9.51   -14.51     0.01     0.11     1.74     0.43P   22.10R    6.48  
Millwall        11    7   -7      -5.93     8.86    -3.88    51.89     9.37   -11.53     0.02     0.10     1.51     0.41P   22.66R    6.63  
Ipswich         11    6   -8      -7.40     4.44    -5.60    46.40     9.08   -19.35     0.00     0.02     0.33     0.06P   43.82R   17.43  
Preston         11    6  -10      -7.37     4.34    -7.25    51.48     9.47   -14.02     0.01     0.07     1.38     0.34P   24.34R    7.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           11   27  +13       9.21    97.83     9.01    81.19     9.68    22.03    15.85    32.82    79.23    43.61P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   24  +13       5.77    88.33     8.15    83.69     9.91    31.09    24.14    44.49    85.87    55.30P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   21   +8       4.79    84.43     6.33    71.98     9.50    12.37     2.83     8.26    44.73    16.05P    0.55R    0.03  
Sunderland           11   20  +10      -0.16    47.80     2.19    83.20    10.01    33.30    23.52    43.29    84.48    57.07P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   11   20   +3       5.68    88.25     3.99    64.24     9.86    -2.55     0.64     2.09    17.78     4.94P    4.55R    0.36  
Barnsley             10   19  +12       0.02    49.02     4.05    83.07    10.27    34.03    24.53    43.14    83.23    56.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall              11   19   +2       4.26    81.91     2.46    64.55     9.44    -1.60     0.53     1.85    17.57     4.72P    3.57R    0.26  
Charlton             11   18   +2       1.79    65.06     0.40    70.86     9.74     9.12     2.48     6.98    39.91    15.00P    0.99R    0.05  
Scunthorpe           11   17   -3       0.68    55.98    -4.70    70.81     9.92     5.55     2.49     7.05    39.67    14.94P    1.11R    0.07  
Luton                11   16   +1       1.06    59.14     1.28    65.97    10.08     3.81     0.96     2.96    23.60     7.56P    3.60R    0.22  
Southend             11   16   -1       0.94    58.29    -0.91    63.61     9.62    -1.95     0.42     1.53    15.89     4.39P    4.77R    0.37  
Blackpool            10   15   +3       0.66    56.10     2.01    64.96     9.70     4.17     0.62     2.11    20.01     6.34P    3.63R    0.27  
Fleetwood_Town       11   14   +4      -1.65    36.91     3.23    63.92     9.54     6.82     0.51     1.56    17.29     5.16P    4.14R    0.35  
Coventry             11   12   -4      -0.38    48.11    -0.35    51.49     9.33   -15.21     0.02     0.09     1.54     0.37P   34.01R    6.42  
Rochdale             11   12   -8      -0.86    43.97    -4.24    56.45     9.54   -13.77     0.04     0.22     4.48     1.01P   17.94R    2.73  
Burton_Albion        10   11   -2      -2.77    27.87    -2.14    59.21    10.26    -3.50     0.25     0.86     9.27     2.86P   12.41R    1.69  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   11   -6      -1.56    37.59    -2.47    51.05     9.07   -16.92     0.00     0.03     1.00     0.19P   35.39R    7.05  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -2      -4.40    17.57    -0.96    53.64     9.45    -8.59     0.02     0.09     2.48     0.63P   25.20R    4.12  
Bradford             11   10   -7      -3.82    20.62    -5.31    54.34     9.46   -12.32     0.03     0.13     2.72     0.70P   23.66R    3.78  
Shrewsbury           11    9   -2      -6.28     8.56    -2.51    58.51     9.37     0.54     0.10     0.36     6.47     1.91P   11.38R    1.37  
Wycombe              11    9   -5      -2.84    27.95    -0.06    45.87     9.54   -22.71     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.10P   57.49R   19.36  
Gillingham           10    8   -7      -3.66    20.60    -3.58    51.58     9.79   -16.28     0.01     0.08     1.78     0.40P   34.20R    7.98  
Oxford_Utd           11    5  -12      -7.85     3.52    -8.28    46.09     9.63   -23.39     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.07P   56.43R   18.91  
Plymouth             11    4  -12      -8.16     2.42    -7.60    44.00     9.28   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P   64.87R   24.62  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2018, Cambridge_Utd 1 3 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     11   25  +12       7.11    93.77     7.83    81.62     9.51    24.86    22.47    52.95    83.87    60.78P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           11   23  +10       4.67    84.09     5.08    81.16     9.61    25.32    21.32    51.32    82.54    59.52P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   11   23   -1       8.34    96.46    -0.38    66.89     9.48    -7.20     1.37     6.91    27.84    10.28P    0.30R    0.04  
Colchester       11   19  +13       0.85    56.78     8.39    77.14     9.60    28.35    12.44    35.96    71.48    45.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     11   19   +8       4.60    83.70     9.04    64.37     9.48     4.07     0.82     4.72    21.16     7.65P    0.53R    0.08  
MK_Dons          11   18   +4       0.21    51.67     0.02    78.37     9.76    22.13    13.70    39.68    74.35    50.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        11   18   +2       1.86    65.63     0.43    64.69     9.39     0.41     0.76     4.73    21.53     8.27P    0.54R    0.07  
Oldham           11   17   +6      -1.65    36.17     0.67    75.63     9.89    21.69     9.69    30.17    65.06    40.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury             11   17   +4      -0.26    47.82     0.73    73.60    10.11    16.98     6.92    23.57    56.82    32.75P    0.06R    0.01  
Tranmere         11   17   +3       3.30    76.22     4.73    63.55     9.67     1.47     0.67     3.87    19.03     6.85P    1.00R    0.21  
Swindon          11   16   +1      -0.49    46.14    -1.16    69.37     9.67     9.07     2.56    11.69    38.91    18.31P    0.17R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +0       2.13    68.21     1.87    61.31     9.47    -4.07     0.35     2.34    12.98     4.39P    1.56R    0.34  
Carlisle         11   16   -2       0.27    52.74    -2.95    65.02     9.43    -0.19     0.77     4.88    22.57     8.85P    0.55R    0.10  
Mansfield        10   15   +7      -1.18    39.48     3.36    72.52     9.61    19.14     4.94    19.30    52.88    28.67P    0.05R    0.00  
Yeovil           11   15   +5       1.16    60.85     6.86    63.63     9.59     5.95     0.66     3.99    19.78     7.18P    0.83R    0.16  
Port_Vale        11   14   +0      -0.41    47.26     0.79    60.60     9.25    -1.55     0.25     1.71    11.28     3.75P    1.69R    0.33  
Crewe            10   11   +0      -2.40    30.01     0.52    57.09     9.69    -4.97     0.17     1.00     6.85     2.19P    4.27R    1.01  
Morecambe        11   10  -12      -1.58    37.37    -6.85    45.77     8.75   -29.99     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.03P   28.95R    9.82  
Cheltenham       11    9   -6      -4.79    15.04    -4.03    50.15     9.27   -16.37     0.01     0.12     1.36     0.34P   14.46R    4.26  
Notts_County     11    9  -11      -5.30    12.94    -9.58    54.72     9.56   -14.94     0.06     0.46     4.06     1.25P    7.40R    2.09  
Northampton      11    8   -9      -6.36     8.51    -7.99    53.83     9.91   -12.18     0.06     0.51     3.94     1.36P    8.71R    2.61  
Grimsby          11    8  -11      -3.36    22.56    -5.67    44.32     8.85   -27.77     0.00     0.02     0.19     0.04P   35.11R   13.05  
Cambridge_Utd    11    8  -12      -5.17    12.88    -9.16    50.36     9.27   -20.48     0.01     0.10     1.27     0.37P   14.83R    4.88  
Macclesfield     11    4  -11      -5.77     7.62    -2.55    34.05     8.79   -39.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   78.96R   60.91  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       14   30  +15       8.73    94.08    11.90    79.12     9.57    23.11    16.73    64.35    27.68P    0.08R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      14   29  +17       5.07    82.84    10.06    84.20     8.75    34.10    34.17    84.16    49.26P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     14   29  +13       8.61    93.68    11.12    77.53     9.77    20.08    13.16    57.99    22.99P    0.14R    0.00  
Wrexham            14   28  +11       6.41    89.19     7.46    77.20     8.53    19.16    10.06    57.28    22.27P    0.04R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     14   28   +7       9.46    96.11     7.83    70.95     8.65     6.20     2.61    28.25     7.34P    0.42R    0.00  
Sutton_United      14   26   +4       5.70    85.46     2.29    73.41     8.82     9.57     4.55    38.92    12.39P    0.29R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          14   25  +13       1.43    60.28     6.36    77.74     8.84    26.18    12.10    60.87    26.58P    0.06R    0.00  
Hartlepool         14   24   +2       3.64    75.25     0.15    66.62     8.61     0.81     0.87    14.53     3.73P    1.75R    0.01  
Gateshead          14   23   +5       1.86    63.83     2.06    70.16     8.73    10.19     2.22    26.47     8.06P    0.66R    0.00  
Halifax            14   20   +3       2.59    69.89     5.21    60.32     8.57    -1.33     0.14     4.29     0.92P    7.84R    0.13  
Eastleigh          14   20   -5       3.23    73.55    -1.66    61.10     8.67    -8.77     0.16     4.80     0.97P    7.74R    0.18  
Boreham_Wood       14   19   -1      -0.98    43.14    -2.40    63.73     8.65     0.93     0.38     8.83     2.40P    3.92R    0.07  
Barnet             14   19   -4      -3.19    27.61    -8.59    69.30     9.02     5.47     1.90    23.91     8.64P    1.24R    0.01  
Barrow             14   18   +1      -1.04    42.96     1.03    58.92     8.73    -2.86     0.12     3.45     0.81P   10.93R    0.28  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   18   +0      -1.01    43.22    -0.01    63.74     8.79     3.02     0.50     9.33     2.54P    3.97R    0.09  
Maidenhead         14   17   -2      -0.92    44.00    -0.03    56.70     8.79    -8.53     0.06     2.09     0.44P   17.25R    0.63  
Bromley            14   14   -5      -4.81    18.61    -4.43    57.74     8.92    -5.40     0.07     2.67     0.64P   14.56R    0.62  
Maidstone_United   14   14   -7      -1.59    39.01    -1.99    49.70     8.33   -18.44     0.00     0.21     0.04P   44.75R    3.23  
Aldershot          14   14  -10      -4.39    20.45    -9.11    56.74     8.66   -11.13     0.05     1.68     0.45P   17.03R    0.63  
Chesterfield       14   12   -6      -9.15     4.21    -9.02    60.02     9.19     0.45     0.17     5.19     1.68P    9.76R    0.27  
Havant_&_Wville    14   11  -10      -2.41    33.69    -0.42    41.83     8.83   -31.46     0.00     0.04     0.00P   77.77R   18.61  
Dag_&_Red          14    9   -9     -10.29     2.15    -9.31    51.01     8.77   -11.55     0.00     0.39     0.08P   37.77R    2.75  
Dover_Athletic     14    7  -16     -10.54     1.62   -13.66    49.57     8.88   -17.71     0.01     0.30     0.07P   45.51R    4.28  
Braintree_Town     14    6  -16      -5.79    10.43    -4.85    32.58     8.15   -42.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.49R   68.21